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THE Goldman Sachs Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Goldman Sachs says Saudi Arabia misleading the world

Unread postby peeker01 » Sun 10 Jul 2011, 17:22:11

so the rigging of supply and demand goes waaaaay back.........wiki excerpt to follow

Expansion to oil

The agency's reach expanded as it took over responsibility for regulating oil pipelines (in 1917), oil and gas production (1919), natural gas delivery systems (1920), bus lines (1927), and trucking (1929). It grew from 12 employees in 1916 to 69 in 1930 and 566 in 1939. It does not have jurisdiction over investor owned utility companies; that falls under the jurisdiction of the Public Utility Commission of Texas.[5]
A crisis for the petroleum industry was created by the East Texas oil boom of the 1930s, as prices plunged to 25 cents a barrel. The traditional TRC policy of negotiating compromises failed; the governor was forced to call in the state militia to. Texas oilmen decided they preferred state to federal regulation, and wanted the TRC to give out quotas so that every producer would get higher prices and profits. Pure Oil Company opposed the first statewide oil prorationing order, which was issued by the TRC in August 1930. The order, which was intended to conserve oil resources by limiting the number of barrels drilled per day, was seen by small producers like Pure as a conspiracy between government and major companies to drive them out of business and foster monopoly in the oil industry.[6]
Ernest Thompson (1892-1966), head of the TRC from 1932 to 1965, took charge of the agency and indeed the oil industry by appealing to a mythic ideal of Texas's role in the global oil order--the civil religion of Texas oil. He cajoled, harangued, and browbeat recalcitrant producers into compliance with the TRC's prorationing orders. The New Deal allowed the TRC to set national oil policy.[7] As late as the 1950s the TRC controlled over 40% of United States crude production and approximately half of estimated national proved reserves. It served as a model in the creation of OPEC.[8]
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Saudi Arabia has reached peak oil output : Goldman Sachs

Unread postby lowem » Mon 11 Jul 2011, 08:12:46

LateGreatPlanetEarth wrote:http://j3tpost.wordpress.com/2011/07/11/saudi-arabia-has-reached-peak-oil-output-commodities-to-rise-goldman-sachs/


Heh, that's actually an aggregation of a post of mine :

Saudi Arabia has reached peak oil output, commodities to rise : Goldman Sachs

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It's all speculation over the future of the commodities market. But Goldman Sachs is predicting a significant upturn. And they're particularly bullish when it comes to crude oil. According to Goldman Sachs, Brent crude oil prices could be as high as $120 at the end of 2011 and $140 at the end of 2012. The global economy, they believe, is on the rise, despite the Japanese earthquake and the high oil prices. A rise in demand will push up commodity prices. And Goldman Sachs believes this will be fueled by the fact that Saudi Arabia won't be able to meet oil demand.

Despite claims by analysts and even OPEC that Saudi Arabia will be able to increase output to meet growing market demand, Goldman believes that the Saudis have reached their peak oil output. This stems from 2008 when oil surpassed $100 a barrel. This was plenty of reason to boost market supply, but Saudi Arabia hit its peak at 9.5 million barrels a day. Now, despite claims that Saudi Arabia has the potential for a 12 million barrel-a-day capacity, Goldman estimates a supply shortage. US natural gas, gold futures and copper prices (due to China demand) could also see a significant increase. The solution? Go long on commodities - crude oil, copper, zinc, gold - or even soybeans.

- Over time, it is increasingly getting obvious that Saudi Arabia is going through the process of peak oil production and eventual decline. And as peak oil author Matt Simmons had said, "as Saudia Arabia goes, so goes the world". The first alarm bells started ringing as early as 2005 when it was first discovered that apparently the Saudi's could be having problems keeping up production of light sweet crude oil which is the more desired grade of oil. In the years after that, the peakoiler community watched as Saudi's answer to keeping up their oil production was done instead with heavy, sour crude oil. We knew that was it, back then, and waited for the time when even the heavy, sour stuff would start to peter out, and then it would actually be Global Peak Oil, for all intents and purposes.

As a number of peak oil watchers have stated, May 2005 was the date of peak oil for light sweet crude worldwide. Now all we are awaiting is confirmation of the peak date for all liquids - that would include both light and heavy crude, oil from tar sands, from NGL (natural gas liquids), deep-sea drilling, plus all the more exotic and smaller-scale forms like CTL (coal-to-liquid), GTL (gas-to-liquid) and so on. We are getting close but the actual date is hard to pin down as the only way to tell for sure is to look into the proverbial rear-view mirror. Best estimates, as far as we can tell, are currently at 2013 +/- 3 years. So yes, it could actually be in the past and indeed some are talking about the Global Peak Oil date, All Liquids, as being some time last year, back in 2010. And now with no less than Goldman Sachs coming out and saying it, and with the economy nowadays hardly able to gain any real traction, we're getting a sinking feeling that the "early peakers" could be right after all.
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Re: THE Goldman Sachs Thread (merged)

Unread postby lowem » Mon 11 Jul 2011, 08:22:51

Of course all eyes have been on the Saudi's for a while now.
Some historical postings follow.

Early indications back in 2005 :

Saudi Arabia : Hubbert Peak arrived ...
Bank says Saudi's top field in decline
Saudi Tosses Oil Production Cap

Back in July 2007, Goldman Sachs made a good call :

$100 Oil May Be Months Away, Not Years, Say CIBC, Goldman

Then in 2009 :
Russia overtakes Saudi Arabia, tops global oil production

And most recently in 2011,we just had :

Jim Rogers: Saudi Arabia lying, can't increase production
Wikileaks on Peak Oil
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Big Oil Was Never That Big a Money-Maker, Goldman Sachs Says

Unread postby GHung » Mon 19 Sep 2016, 11:44:13

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... sachs-says

Oil companies longing for the glory days of ultra-high crude prices might wish to think again.

The rising oil prices that came to characterize energy markets in the mid-2000s, and which culminated in a record near-$150 a barrel in 2008, were not the windfall investors might have imagined, according to a new note from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Instead, returns for major oil companies such as BP Plc, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, and Exxon Mobil Corp., actually declined between 2005 and 2014 as measured by cash return on capital invested.

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The measure means that while the big three oil majors saw their total profits rise alongside higher oil prices, the amount of cash generated by their investments was declining, indicating higher costs of business. Returns per euro or dollar invested by capital-intensive Big Oil were hit with a triple whammy of higher taxes, more expensive service costs, and increased finding and development (F&D) expenses, Goldman analysts led by Henry Tarr argue.....


Full article: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... sachs-says
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Re: Big Oil Was Never That Big a Money-Maker, Goldman Sachs

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 19 Sep 2016, 15:41:59

The petroleum industry is an extractive resource industry that is no longer replacing its reserves. At this point in time it is dying by definition. At $43/ barrel it will continue that process.
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Re: THE Goldman Sachs Thread (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 02 Aug 2017, 19:56:26

As long as they keep the revolving door policy with executives moving back and forth between government and Sachs they will remain very influential.
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Re: THE Goldman Sachs Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 12 Nov 2017, 20:15:42

The biggest share of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s managing director promotions this year went to its struggling sales and trading division. Of the 509 named by the Wall Street firm on Wednesday, the group nabbed 130 slots, almost 26 percent of the total and up from 24 percent two years ago. The second-biggest share, 101, went to the investment banking division. The title, which takes effect Jan. 1, 2018, usually leads to a higher base salary and bonuses that can boost total compensation into the millions of dollars.


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