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Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 2016

Discuss specific research and forecasts.

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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 08 Jul 2011, 00:37:49

AirlinePilot wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:I think you missed the part where it said, "combined oil and gas output."


I see that but its impossible to tell what they were driving at as there is no data source to back up the claim. It could be argued they are implying something else. Hard to tell since the lack of journalism skills failed to provide anything of substance.

The guy at the Open Choke blog gives a little more information - and, I might add, it's from another source than the Norwegian consulting firm. So we have two different sources saying the same thing.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 08 Jul 2011, 13:17:00

OilFinder2 wrote:The point wasn't even the technicalities of the stock market and the potential to eat one's IH. The point is, you claim you've got some special ability to see the big picture because you're just oh-so-smart when in fact you've been dead wrong about the stock market and ridiculed me for having a woolly blanket over my head over the same topic. Well guess what smartypants? I've been right about the stock market and you've been dead wrong. Now who has the woolley blanket over their heads? Hint: It ain't me, 'cuz I've been right.


That woolly blanket is still smothering you OF. You just dont know it yet. Your going to suffocate and die from it. Go ahead and keep believing this market is made up of fundamentals. Nothing could be further from the truth. You choose the comfort of the blanket, I prefer the cold reality without it. Your being duped and dont even know it.

I'm glad there are still some bag holders. I wont be one of them.
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 08 Jul 2011, 15:45:36

AirlinePilot wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:The point wasn't even the technicalities of the stock market and the potential to eat one's IH. The point is, you claim you've got some special ability to see the big picture because you're just oh-so-smart when in fact you've been dead wrong about the stock market and ridiculed me for having a woolly blanket over my head over the same topic. Well guess what smartypants? I've been right about the stock market and you've been dead wrong. Now who has the woolley blanket over their heads? Hint: It ain't me, 'cuz I've been right.


That woolly blanket is still smothering you OF. You just dont know it yet. Your going to suffocate and die from it. Go ahead and keep believing this market is made up of fundamentals. Nothing could be further from the truth. You choose the comfort of the blanket, I prefer the cold reality without it. Your being duped and dont even know it.

I'm glad there are still some bag holders. I wont be one of them.
Oily apparently believe shale gas/oil is not an investor scam, the US stock market is not a ponzi scheme, unlimited economic growth dependent on unlimited energy growth is not over and done. His anti-peak agenda has clouded his vision. :cry:

Last investor investing . . . gets screwed
Yikes!
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 08 Jul 2011, 20:32:54

AirlinePilot wrote:That woolly blanket is still smothering you OF. You just dont know it yet. Your going to suffocate and die from it. Go ahead and keep believing this market is made up of fundamentals. Nothing could be further from the truth. You choose the comfort of the blanket, I prefer the cold reality without it. Your being duped and dont even know it.

I'm glad there are still some bag holders. I wont be one of them.

Oh - so now that the stock market isn't doing what you expected it to be doing a year-and-a-half later, conveniently it's all become some sort of rigged conspiracy. Ya, sure. :roll: No doubt you'll still be saying that as it hits 15,000, and 20,000, and so on. :roll:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 09 Jul 2011, 15:24:56

Ive been saying that since pre 08 and specifically since then anyone who has left money in the market is a crazy person. Valuations are still at lofty levels given fundamentals. In light of the pass that the Govt has given to the equities industry and almost single handedly levitating the current markets(along with MASSIVE bailouts) I'd say the idea that the market is rigged is clearly supportable. Its a fools game to be looking to invest in any traditional sense right now given the road we are on.

I have said that for the last 3 years and stand by it. I have completely rejected any traditional stock or fund investing and will continue to do so until I see some form of reason and morality enter the markets. This is nothing new for me and claiming its some convenient excuse is once again a completely erroneous assumption on your part.

You do that a lot..its childish.
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 09 Jul 2011, 15:28:09

I'd be interested to honestly hear your opinion on how the DJ could hit 15,000 given the current government fiscal landscape, the obvious global barriers to growth which we currently are just beginning to experience, and the lack of leadership both here and abroad when it comes to any ability to control greed and spendthrift politicians. I'm very interested in your scenario.
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby Lore » Sat 09 Jul 2011, 15:40:42

The DJ is a casino, with a lot of last ditch hedge fund managers trying to turn a buck for their clients by swapping short term trades. They’ve got no where else to go, but out of business if they don’t float this market.

The markets are about as disconnected from reality right now as they have ever been or possibly should be. Woe to those living in house of cards constructed from equities when all this comes down again.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Sat 09 Jul 2011, 16:15:23

Oily conveniently forgets the environmental impact of shale oil production. What about the water requirements when the areas that are being drilled are already in drought? It's not going to happen people. Water is the first king.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale_economics#Water_usage

Development of oil shale resources will require significant quantities of water for mine and plant operations, reclamation, supporting infrastructure, and associated economic growth. Above-ground retorting typically consumes between one and five barrels of water per barrel of produced shale oil, depending on technology.[5][23][24][25] For an oil shale industry producing 2.5 million barrels per day (400×103 m3/d), this equates to 105000000–315000000 US gallons per day (400,000–1,190,000 m3/d) of water. These numbers include water requirements for power generation for in-situ heating processes, retorting, refining, reclamation, dust control and on-site worker demands. Municipal and other water requirements related to population growth associated with industry development will require an additional 58 million gallons per day. Hence, a 2.5 million barrels per day (400×103 m3/d) oil shale industry would require 180,000 to 420,000 acre feet (220,000,000 to 520,000,000 m3) of water per year, depending on location and processes used.[26]
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 09 Jul 2011, 19:48:42

AirlinePilot wrote:I'd be interested to honestly hear your opinion on how the DJ could hit 15,000 given the current government fiscal landscape, the obvious global barriers to growth which we currently are just beginning to experience, and the lack of leadership both here and abroad when it comes to any ability to control greed and spendthrift politicians. I'm very interested in your scenario.

Politics has little effect on the stock market. I've been hearing complaints about "lack of leadership" and "greed" in politics since ... well, ever since I started following politics in the 70's or 80's. It's all empty rhetoric. Ditto the "fiscal landscape." In the 80's under Reagan, the budget deficit soared, and so did the stock market.

There are few global barriers to growth. Even high energy prices are no detriment to the stock market, because it helps the stock prices of energy and commodity producers and related companies.

I have no idea when the Dow will hit 15,000 - sometime before this decade is over would be a safe thing to say. We may or may not have another recession before it hits that number, so I'm not going to make a guess any more precise than that.

Early last year you obviously did not believe the stock market could hit 13,000 any time soon. Now that it's almost there, you're making the same mistake again about 15,000.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 09 Jul 2011, 19:50:10

Serial_Worrier wrote:Oily conveniently forgets the environmental impact of shale oil production. What about the water requirements when the areas that are being drilled are already in drought? It's not going to happen people. Water is the first king.

1. In the grand scheme of things, those volumes of water are very small.
2. Oil and gas drillers are increasingly recycling their fracking water, so the point is moot anyway.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby Lore » Sat 09 Jul 2011, 19:59:25

OilFinder2 wrote:1. In the grand scheme of things, those volumes of water are very small.
2. Oil and gas drillers are increasingly recycling their fracking water, so the point is moot anyway.

Why not, let's add as much CO2 to the atmosphere as we can!
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 09 Jul 2011, 20:54:57

AirlinePilot wrote:I'd be interested to honestly hear your opinion on how the DJ could hit 15,000 given the current government fiscal landscape, the obvious global barriers to growth which we currently are just beginning to experience, and the lack of leadership both here and abroad when it comes to any ability to control greed and spendthrift politicians. I'm very interested in your scenario.

A.P.:

1). From the context of the discussion (argument), OF2 was clearly talking about in the longer term -- perhaps several or even many years, since he mentioned 20,000 as well.

2). As far as your ability to integrate facts vs. most people -- guess what? Just about EVERYONE believes they are smarter than a significant majority of people. Lake Woebegone for grownups (i.e. where everyone is above average)... I am not making this up. This is a well known and documented overconfidence fallacy recently documented in several books about behavioral economics.

3). As OF2 mentioned, the system is, and has been, pretty royally screwed up for a LONG TIME. If the stock markets are wildly distorted, then most likely, so are the commodity markets. Given the jobs problem, deflation, A,K.A. Japan, may yet be our primary danger. It's tough to say.

If the dollar blows up, I don't want to hold long dated bonds (and don't, in fact I am constantly short long dated treasuries via TBT for a hedge). However, whether gold or copper or oil or grains or a broad diversified portfolio of global stocks like the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund (VGTSX) - which basically holds everything ex-US ends up doing better -- frankly, I think it's tough to say. NONE OF US can say precisely what form the next big crash will take, when it will happen, etc.

And Buffett is in OF2's camp (long term). Buffett has EARNED respect through a long term WELL DOCUMENTED track record. When he turns doomer, then I WILL get scared.

....

But I forgot -- you, along with many of the doomers on this site know the future precisely. Yeah. Well, good luck with that.
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby Lore » Sat 09 Jul 2011, 21:20:52

Outcast_Searcher wrote:And Buffett is in OF2's camp (long term). Buffett has EARNED respect through a long term WELL DOCUMENTED track record. When he turns doomer, then I WILL get scared.
.... But I forgot -- you, along with many of the doomers on this site know the future precisely. Yeah. Well, good luck with that.

And Buffett is the all seeing and all knowing prognosticator of the future? He has about as much of a clue as the next high roller. He doesn't have to turn doomer, the old fart is already doomed in a few years. So why not leave the earth throwing flowers of joy and happiness to all. He has certainly sucked up his share and then some.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 09 Jul 2011, 23:26:20

Outcast_Searcher wrote:2). As far as your ability to integrate facts vs. most people -- guess what? Just about EVERYONE believes they are smarter than a significant majority of people. Lake Woebegone for grownups (i.e. where everyone is above average)... I am not making this up. This is a well known and documented overconfidence fallacy recently documented in several books about behavioral economics.


Yup, agreed, Im familiar with it. Notice I never said I was SMARTER than anyone. You guys really dont READ posts from folks you seem to disagree with do you?

This is my last post on this...getting far off topic...There will always be folks who appear to be on the fringe and "conspiratorial" etc, but lately its those folks who have been more right about the direction the global financial world is headed AND the one our Government appears to be going. Politics WILL change the landscape for markets. You can quote me on that by the way. If you dont believe QE and the host of other free money programs instituted by the GOVERNMENT are not moving/manipulating markets, than you truly do not understand what is going on around you.

The manipulation has gone out of control, regulatory agencies and policies have been thrown by the wayside in some desperate attempt to avoid collapse. Its not going to work, there is no amount of time which can allow the avoidance of the pain we must suffer in order to get back to some semblance of fiscal responsibility.

The normalcy bias is a far stronger road block to overcome than many other psychological barriers to planning and investing in ones life. Open your eyes, there is little "normal" anywhere in sight. I refuse to give in to it due to the reality all around me.

Need to get back on topic, this stuff is far off it. I own some of the blame for it.
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 09 Jul 2011, 23:35:37

Outcast_Searcher wrote:But I forgot -- you, along with many of the doomers on this site know the future precisely. Yeah. Well, good luck with that.


Adding little to the discussion other than a boldly inaccurate and obviously biased statement. What purpose do those few sentences serve? Did you really need to post that?

REALLY? :(
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby dissident » Sun 10 Jul 2011, 06:35:06

KingM wrote:Good point. The armchair, hunch-driven analysis on this web site is much more credible than anything that could be offered by so-called professional "analysts" and "experts."

Such as yourself, who avoid numbers like the plague. The alleged 3.65 billion barrels of recoverable oil reserves from the Bakken formation are about 50% of US annual oil consumption. Eagle Ford supposedly has 3 billion barrels of recoverable oil. US production going up by 2 million barrels per day assumes absolutely no decline in production at existing fields, which is patent nonsense. The only effect these finds will have is slowing the decline in production from the current 5.6 million bpd. The much larger finds in Alaska slowed the decline but did not produce a new peak.
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sun 10 Jul 2011, 10:52:29

dissident wrote: The much larger finds in Alaska slowed the decline but did not produce a new peak.


Very important observation there. When fields in other areas of the world are studied the same theme is evident time after time. Its the inability to understand the big picture which messes up what folks see. When you take ALL factors into consideration the US example is about best case too. We had a slow increase over time and a basically stable, healthy, and growing economy. Even with optimum conditions all that Alaska oil only made a stair step on the chart downwards.

With all the new oil shale and gas plays folks seem to tune everything out after the wonderment of the latest giant resource number BLINDS them. The impacts of infrastructure, resource usage, and the investment climate can and will determine actual recoverable reserves which is really what matters most.
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 06 Oct 2011, 21:06:21

LINK
U.S. Shale Oil Output to Reduce Imports, Purvin & Gertz Says
By Paul Burkhardt - Jun 15, 2011 9:12 AM PT

Rising output from shale formations may reduce U.S. imports of low-sulfur crude oil by 500,000 barrels a day within five years as new pipelines carry the oil to refineries along the Gulf of Mexico, according to a study by analysts at Purvin & Gertz Inc.

Shale production should rise to about 900,000 barrels a day by 2015 and to more than 1.3 million barrels daily by 2020, displacing imports, Geoff Houlton, a vice president at the Houston-based energy consultant, said in a telephone interview. The study includes output growth from the Bakken formation in North Dakota, Eagle Ford in Texas and Niobrara in Colorado and Wyoming.

The discount for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude versus European Brent, which widened to a record $21.80 a barrel June 14, may shrink to as little as $2 after pipeline expansions are finished at Cushing, Oklahoma, according to Houlton.

Crude supplies at the hub, where New York Mercantile Exchange WTI futures are delivered, reached a record 41.9 million barrels in April, according to the Energy Department. The U.S. imported 9.16 million barrels a day of crude last year, according to department data.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 06 Oct 2011, 21:08:55

LINK
Hess chief says U.S. oil shale oil output to surge
Tue Sep 27, 2011 5:03pm EDT

STAMFORD, Conn,, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Companies that waged big bets on the U.S. shale oil bonanza will see output double in the coming few years, but the costs to tap the fields are rising, Hess Corp (HES.N) Chief Executive John Hess said on Tuesday.

Oil output from shale prospects in unconventional sources from North Dakota to Texas could reach 1.5 million to 2 million barrels-per-day (bpd) in the coming five to seven years, twice as much as the 700,000 bpd currently produced in these places, Hess told an IHS Herold energy conference.

"This is a game changer. It is lower risk with more returns. It's great to have on your portfolio, especially being based in the (United States)" he said.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby Kristen » Sun 09 Oct 2011, 15:11:55

It's a drop in the bucket and it validates peak oil in being cheap at least. Would we be cracking if we could still stick a straw into the ground and oil would surface? I think not!
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