Are we ultimately doomed?

[JohnRM]

I don't mean to sound like a pessimist, but what are our chances, realistically, of making it through this?

If the collapse of industrial civilization does not happen soon, on its own accord, we face environmental catastrophe that will end it for us. What is left over for us to build on won't be much and it won't be pretty. If the collapse of industrial civilization does happen soon, then we are nowhere near prepared. I do not believe that we can cope with the end of economic growth and the growth in energy inputs into our economic system. No matter how I think about it, I can only see that we will spend years, maybe even decades, in a chaotic, bloody world where survival is the best one can hope for.

The primary issues are going to be...

Producing enough food and water, locally, to feed the local population. Too many areas cannot sustain their local populations without transportation of goods across great distances. Many more could not possibly manage to ramp up production of food quick enough to feed their people, in the event of collapse. There simply isn't enough seed, good soil, tools and equipment, or know-how in order to get it done. Starving millions die hard.

Water is going to be a tremendous problem. Without public water systems, the people are going to have to rely on rivers and streams for drinking water, many of which have been polluted beyond acceptable limits and which, after collapse, would be polluted to an even greater degree given the break-down of controls over dumping. In areas such as the American Southwest, there will be a mass exodus from many areas as the ability to direct water from the great reservoirs becomes impossible.

Shelter may or may not be as much of a problem. One trend that we saw during the last recessive period was that local authorities began to refuse to evict residents from their homes after foreclosure. To me, this was tantamount to saying to the banks, "Its over." If this becomes more common, shelter may not be an issue, but I won't hold my breath. Ultimately, the banks are only hurting themselves by foreclosing. The market is flooded with empty houses. Each home that is foreclosed on only adds to the downward pressure on housing prices and therefor perpetuates more foreclosures.

Community & Security will be an issue. I cannot see millions of starving, homeless, and hopeless people going out like that. Desperation will breed crime, chaos, and social disorders the magnitude of which we have never seen. Think New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina, but from coast to coast, and from hemisphere to hemisphere. Whatever little commerce may remain, this disorder will destroy.

We are nowhere near prepared to cope with the end of industrial civilization and the Earth is no longer capable of living with it.

Where am I wrong?

[SeaGypsy]

You aren't, but you are preaching to the choir.
There are already a pile of threads on exactly this,
google/ peakoil.com doom / bump one you find interesting.
This post is troll bait.

[AgentR11]

But but but... I r troll. You no cross my bridge unpay, you pay nau.

But seriously,

I don't mean to sound like a pessimist, but what are our chances, realistically, of making it through this?

What does it mean to make it through, and whom are you referring to?

I fully expect the 2500-3000 ce time period to be inhabited by humans.... numbering a few tens of thousands, living right on the edge of their ability to survive in a world climate very much unlike anything we are naturally adapted to handle. But we are fairly tough for our size (medium weight predators being notoriously fragile), and our fast, adaptable software and ability to modify our local environment gives us better odds than your typical dog or cat..

otoh, I see no reason to suspect that I won't make it to old age and keel over from an influenza induced respiratory failure. Joy. The real trick is whether you've done enough to tip the odds that your kids and grandkids may face, more in their favor. They are to whom you owe your first degree of obligation.

[Pops]

I think it's on the idea of "collapse of industrial civilization" where I differ from lots of peakers. It's not that I think the current industrial economy will continue beyond cheap energy but I don't think we'll necessarily forget everything we've learned in the last few hundred years and revert to clubs and grubs.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that much of what gets written in Doom Circles is written by thinkers, not makers. That isn't a slam on anyone in particular, it's a function of the medium that people who write blogs and post on forums aren't by and large "hands on" types. We are probably at least of average intelligence and have some idea of how complex the current system is but perhaps not as fluent in the ways of what to do in practice when the light switch doesn't operate as expected.

I think we forget there are hundreds of millions of folks who are able to cobble together something more substantial than a strawman argument.

So when P says I'm arguing with myself, he's right in the sense that I'm pessimistic about the survival of the current system and what happens to individuals as it thrashes around in it's death throes but longer term, I'm pretty confident in our ability to adapt.

[Sixstrings]

..but I don't think we'll necessarily forget everything we've learned in the last few hundred years and revert to clubs and grubs.

But if you look at the last fall of Western Civilization that's exactly what happened.. they forgot the old knowledge in the chaotic downfall of civilized living. Hungry people trying to survive barbaric marauders don't have time to read, there's no organization for primary / secondary education. Give that a couple generations and it's the Dark Ages.

Add to that, we're even moving away from printed books. All the this knowledge we have on the internet is gone the moment the lights go out. At least books last a while.. but every year fewer books are being printed.

[JohnRM]

It only takes one generation to fail to teach in order to lose something. It would take less than 50 years, given the right circumstances.

[Oakley]

John, you are essentially correct. I don't think it will play out instantaneously, however. It will come in fits and starts with periods of stability and even small recoveries. It could take many decades to play out after energy production falters. There is some cushion between today's level of consumption and the level that produces death, and conservation at first is and will continue to act as a pressure relief valve. Ultimately, however, conservation will give way to deprivation, and deprivation will give way to death.

One thing that bothers me is the inability to prevent widespread nuclear meltdowns, such as currently are being experienced in Japan. With a failed electric grid and lack of fuel to keep nuclear rods cool, will not most of the nuclear power plants around the world melt down?

[Sys1]

I don't mean to sound like a pessimist, but what are our chances, realistically, of making it through this?

No chance. We gonna die in a collapsed economya and biosphere. No more retirement, hollidays on the over side of the planet, traffic jam, eating salmon while watching tv, wallmart spending, SUV, HDTV an Iphone. No food on plate. No job. Hyperinflation. Streets full of homeless hunting after the ones who still have a job. Brownouts, blackouts. Police on strike. Gangs raping and burning. Mega storms. Droughts. War. Wars. Civil wars. Genocides. Despair. Pestilence.
The worst of all must be seeing suffering or death of the beloved ones. This is exactly what I fear the most.

Just enjoy the happy days. It's here and now.

[Pops]

You guys aren't saying anything new, and in fact are making my point exactly.

The internet doomer assumption is overnight armageddon after which we instantly forget everything and go straight back to clubs and grubs. I think it has something to to do with the fact that BBSers have little to no idea how to survive without modern society exactly as it exists today and assume no one else does either.

Just like Simmons assumed oil would go to $3k/bbl or whatever because the sheep would just keep on driving even after they went broke and couldn't buy another drop. Presumably they'd keep on going 'till the tank ran dry, then just coast to a stop and starve - right there in the fast lane with the cruise control still set on 72.

I probably said the same thing in my gloomy moments (I don't think I did but who knows) but the fact remains people will act sensibly even if governments won't and they'll change habits when forced. That's the difference, I think the economy may crash - perhaps over and over like Argentina's but I also give the sheep credit for being able to adapt.

I mean, I'm 50 years old and I have so much crap I could live out my life and never need to buy anything but food. How many shoes and pants do you own? I'm pretty poor and not a clothes horse but I have closets and drawers full of clothes. Same with kitchen utensils, tools of whatever kind - you name it. And I'm not talking about cases of unopened garden trowels stored away in the bunker for trips to Bartertown, just plain old stuff like every household in suburbia owns.

So I know for a fact we aren't going to lose all our knowledge in one generation because we can't drive the 1/4 mile to the Quick Sac for a slushy.

.

[Pops]

There is some cushion between today's level of consumption and the level that produces death, and conservation at first is and will continue to act as a pressure relief valve.

I think you are half right, we in the rich world have a huge cushion but we won't just conserve until there is no conserving and then die.

During that time of "conserving" we'll also be adapting. People already today, right now, are moving closer to town and looking for walkable communities - that is an entirely different thing than simply driving less, it's eliminating the need to drive.

[EnergyUnlimited]

Shelter may or may not be as much of a problem. One trend that we saw during the last recessive period was that local authorities began to refuse to evict residents from their homes after foreclosure. To me, this was tantamount to saying to the banks, "Its over." If this becomes more common, shelter may not be an issue, but I won't hold my breath. Ultimately, the banks are only hurting themselves by foreclosing. The market is flooded with empty houses. Each home that is foreclosed on only adds to the downward pressure on housing prices and therefor perpetuates more foreclosures.

Where am I wrong?

What about destroying foreclosed homes, very much like Romans did?

[pstarr]

Pops I tend to agree with you. The view from our front porches are awfully pretty and will probably remain so for a long time. We are a rich country isolated from the world with relatively secure borders. It should be easy to maintain essential services and resources, and avoid catastrophe in the face of international collapse and decline.

[Ferretlover]

You guys aren't saying anything new, and in fact are making my point exactly. ...
So I know for a fact we aren't going to lose all our knowledge in one generation because we can't drive the 1/4 mile to the Quick Sac for a slushy.

That is not what I am saying at all. I am not saying that humanity will return to the dark ages or become extinct. My concern has much more to do with our ability to get through the dark times ahead without tearing each other to pieces. I don't expect it to be painless, but is it possible to make it through this transition using our intellect and our ingenuity, or is it too late for that? Will it necessarily have to come to collapse and chaos? Will there have to be massive amounts of suffering before we reach the other side? Is it too late to do this right?

[peeker01]

cases of garden trowels? your kids are going to have a good laugh someday when they are having the estate sale. why not stockpile cannned or dehydrated food. if the doom doesn't come, it's easier to eat than cases of garden trowels

[pstarr]

cases of garden trowels? your kids are going to have a good laugh someday when they are having the estate sale. why not stockpile cannned or dehydrated food. if the doom doesn't come, it's easier to eat than cases of garden trowels

You picked a sentence way out of context. I don't believe Pops meant it that way all. It sounds like you are having a bad day/week. You might want to put down the inhaler, take a few breaths, and come back when you have calmed down. Gotta read what folks say is all.

[AgentR11]

cases of garden trowels? your kids are going to have a good laugh someday when they are having the estate sale. why not stockpile cannned or dehydrated food. if the doom doesn't come, it's easier to eat than cases of garden trowels

If your kids figure out you garden, you are doomed to receive a never ending stream of garden trowels as presents.
Its an unavoidable law of physics. No sense fighting it, just make a box.

[Pops]

My concern has much more to do with our ability to get through the dark times ahead without tearing each other to pieces.

That is where I'm pessimistic and gotta go on hope, John. I mean who knows?

But thinking about it clinically, we've gone on some real real killing sprees in the past using relatively primitive weapons and it barely caused a hickup in the population plot. Now if we don't incinerate ourselves entirely or create a superbug like a MRSA...

I don't get too worked up over climate change or desertification or burning every last bit of soft coal and kerogen because I'm pretty sure we'll do all those things if we get the chance.

I guess if I do secretly "hope" we crash the economy and come to terms with depletion it's because it might give us a couple of generations to take a hard look at our situation and distance ourselves from our wicked ways before we completely foul the nest.

[lper100km]

Knowledge is a very ephemeral thing. Specialised knowledge even more so. For instance, how many people in the world know how to design computer chips and how many know how to manufacture them? I’m talking of the creators, not the techs who carry out the instructions or operate the machinery. Very, very few. So it goes with all technology. Not only that, but the knowledge needed resides in teams of people working together, so that no one person is necessarily capable of encompassing the knowledge span required.

General knowledge in print and magnetic/optical media is useful only as long as it is capable of being read and understood. If formal teaching of language, mathematics and basic sciences fails, no matter how much material is stored, it eventually becomes meaningless.

Lack of ability to physically travel or to traverse the internet will inevitably restrict the ability to learn. Groupthink will be restricted to a person’s immediate community and thus essentially becomes word of mouth.

Formal education will be the first casualty when survival issues are front and centre. I am pessimistic that intellectual activity would last beyond a generation in a deep social breakdown, but would be more optimistic that stored knowledge could survive pending a longer term return to stability. A kind of hi tech Rosetta Stone. That would take planning, foresight and dedication, but could be done.

All this doesn’t necessarily spell doom, but it does presage an eventual return to a world with limited knowledge of science generally. Maybe that would not be such a bad thing, given that science has allowed us to pull some real boners and drive us to the edge of catastrophe.

[Pops]

My concern has much more to do with our ability to get through the dark times ahead without tearing each other to pieces. I don't expect it to be painless, but is it possible to make it through this transition using our intellect and our ingenuity, or is it too late for that? Will it necessarily have to come to collapse and chaos? Will there have to be massive amounts of suffering before we reach the other side? Is it too late to do this right?

I hope so.

I mean I'd be really happy if shale gas is all it's fracked up to be - at 8 or 10 or 12 bucks, and pre-salt oil and cooking kerogen and burning soft coal and all the other "alternatives" being explored are viable at some really high price so that we "Have" them for necessities but are forced to move to a different way of doing things in the long run.

But we've gone on some pretty wild killing sprees in the past and I suppose it's a little naive to think we won't do a little kicking while we're "kicking" - as the junkies say.

[Sixstrings]

I can't recall what happened to the first great library of alexandria, but after they relocated to a backup location the darn Christians burned all the books and that was that.

Yes 6, the Christians burned down the great library of alexandria where much of the Gnostic's knowledge was stored.

Ah you caught me before my edit. I took that out, trying to stop branching so far off topic.

But since you quoted it, I'll finish my thought..

There's a phenomenon of book burning in troubled times -- whether it's religious fervor, or illiterate marauders, fascists, etc.. once knowledge is no longer immediately useful, or if it's deemed heretical, it's very easy to be lost forever.