THE Crude Oil Price Watch Thread

[careinke]

Oil prices have taken a huge hit in the last few days. I'm not sure why, the ME continues to become more unstable. This alone should keep the pressure on prices.

[AdTheNad]

Oil prices have taken a huge hit in the last few days. I'm not sure why

Japan imports ~ 4 million barrels of oil a day according to this website
http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/
If Fukushima takes out half of Japan (I'm not saying it will) that would be some serious short term demand destruction. I guess the markets think that outweighs what is happening in the ME.

[Plantagenet]

Oil prices have taken a huge hit in the last few days. I'm not sure why

Japan imports ~ 4 million barrels of oil a day according to this website
http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/
If Fukushima takes out half of Japan (I'm not saying it will) that would be some serious short term demand destruction. I guess the markets think that outweighs what is happening in the ME.

The alternative view is that Japan is going to use a LOT of oil over the next few months as it uses heavy equipment non-stop to clean up all the tsunami debris. Rebuilding over the next few years will also require a LOT of oil and natural materials.

[AdTheNad]

The alternative view is that Japan is going to use a LOT of oil over the next few months as it uses heavy equipment non-stop to clean up all the tsunami debris. Rebuilding over the next few years will also require a LOT of oil and natural materials.

That's a fair point, hence the short term demand destruction. I would like to know though, and I'm sure that loads of oil is used in heavy equipment and clear up, but how much that actually is compared to the millions of cars driving around on their daily business?

Materials usage should be up for sure though, unless they never get around to rebuilding it all.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Oil prices have taken a huge hit in the last few days. I'm not sure why, the ME continues to become more unstable. This alone should keep the pressure on prices.

It would seem that way. It's amazing how complex trying to predict economies is, short term.

Today, just about EVERY commodity was down, many sharply. Today seemed to be a "risk off - run for the hills" day, with partial recovery in stocks as the day progressed. Today seemed to imply there is increasingly a question about the speed/sustainability of the global recovery scenario.

If global growth slows meaningfully and the middle east doesn't completely explode, this would imply a significantly lower demand for oil than seemed likely a week or three ago.

(I have no idea what will happen -- I just watch and try to interpret events and how they will be perceived by the masses).

OTOH, copper was actually slightly up today. Freeport Copper and Gold (FCX) amazed me by being UP over 5% today even with gold down sharply. Tomorrow or certainly by Friday, it could just as easily be "risk back on" if Japan can avert a massive nuclear calamity (again, I have no idea).

[JohnRM]

A lot of people seem to be saying that we shouldn't worry about high oil prices, because it will push the world into a recession again, destroying a lot of demand before it gets too high.

...

That is like saying that I don't have to worry about my blood pressure getting too high, because I will have a heart attack before then.

[sparky]

.
Yes , that's about it

Seriously , the Asia Pacific area seems to be decoupled from the Atlantic economies
at the 120$/b level some demand destruction can be assumed to occur in the later
but not necessarily in the Former ,
the Oil exporting economies are making motza of money but while before they would spend the money in the west now they import much from the East and park their investment there
so some of the " money " used to buy oil is not recycled to the purchasing countries
that is possibly the most ominous development
it would send the Atlantic economies into a recession again

[lowem]

Well talk about timing, to be jumping back in here with oil below the $100 support level. It would be a little worrying for the world economy if it drops below 200dma (around $89). For now we'll see if it consolidates around this level.

[bratticus]

Citgo delcares force majeure at Illinois aromatics plant: sources
Houston (Platts)--8Jun2011/406 pm EDT/2006 GMT

Citgo has declared force majeure on toluene, xylene, heptane, special lactolite, and blends containing these products at their facility in Lemont, Illinois, sources told Platts Wednesday. The Lemont facility has a combined benzene, toluene, and xylene production capacity of 6,000 barrels/day.

[bratticus]

Sterling Energy shares plummet as well disappoints
By Sarah Young / London South East and ProQuote / June 13, 2011

... A border dispute in Cameroon has resulted in a force majeure being put in place, while in Madagascar, Sterling's partner Exxon Mobil has said it wants to waits for a political resolution following elections expected in July. ...

[bratticus]

Shell in Nigeria declares force majeure after pipeline fires
AFP / June 13, 2011

LAGOS — Shell in Nigeria on Monday warned it may not be able to meet its contractual obligations for June and July on its Bonny Light crude, after multiple pipeline fires and leaks blamed on sabotage.

The Anglo-Dutch oil giant said it declared a "force majeure on Bonny Light loadings for June and July... as a result of production cutbacks caused by leaks and fires which occurred last week on the Trans Niger Pipeline (TNP)."

Investigations showed that the "incidents were caused by hacksaw cuts which indicate third party interference and activities of unknown persons," it said. ...

[bratticus]

Shell-Nigeria: Oil Revenue Dips as Shell Cuts Exports
Sopuruchi Onwuka / Daily Champion via afriquejet.com / June 14, 2011

Nigeria - Nigeria's crude oil exports have suffered a major cut back following declaration by the country's top producers, Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC), that it could no longer meet scheduled supply commitment to buyers. The Force Majeure came into effect at noon yesterday and will affect loading of Bonny Light crude oil grades for June and July 2011. Consequent on the development, Nigeria's revenue opportunity from the prevailing strong international prices of crude oil has hit a downtime, wiping off millions of dollars from the government's income channels. The declaration followed production cuts backs due to vandalism and multiple pipeline fire blasts sparked off by crude oil thieves that also thrive on running illegal export routes in the Niger Delta. ...

[bratticus]

Butadiene Continues to be Too Tight
Analysis by: Kevin Boyle / GLG / June 15, 2011

... Goodyear declared force majeure on SBR due to a lack of butadiene. While this is a temporary hiccup caused by some butadiene capacity being down, the butadiene problem is more endemic in the U.S. ...

June PET prices in the Americas down in line with global trend
By: Ron Coifman / ICIS / June 15, 2011

... Indorama’s 432,000 tonne/year Decatur PET plant was also affected by the power outage and the company imposed a supply allocation of 35% on its customers. US-based Wellman declared force majeure on PET on 1 June from its 375,000 tonne/year plant at Pearl River, Mississippi, placing customers on a 60% supply allocation. ...

[NoWorries]

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB500 ... rticle%3D1
The ostensible reason for releasing the 60 million barrels was to help replace the loss of production from war-torn Libya. But Tanaka, who not surprisingly said that he had been in "close consultation" with "major producing countries," also linked the decision to concern about spare capacity within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and especially from its largest producer, Saudi Arabia. While welcoming increased production from this source, he cautioned that it "will take time" to come on line.

Comments Rothman: "Read between the lines. This raises the specter that the Saudis might have a problem raising their output."

The Barron's projection assumes that the Saudis will ramp up output this month, and that prices will continue to ease as a result. Another oil bull, Morgan Stanley's commodity research head Hussein Allidina, sees this only furthering the decline of OPEC's spare capacity to "untenable levels," and especially in the land that Allidina dubs the "kingdom of spare capacity" -- Saudi Arabia.

Wow. Quite a reversal from earlier pronouncements that indicated S.A. would have 'no problem' raising output to cover the loss of Libyan production.

But the facts speak for themselves. Why release the strategic reserve if Saudis can compensate? Looks like the truth finally dawned, and the reserves were then released.

Of course, where this puts us in another 10-15 years is another question.

[Outcast_Searcher]

If this is true, HOW does releasing 8 hours of global supply fix anything? Sorry, but I just don't buy this.
Obama is attempting to show how he "cares" and is "DOING something" to buy the 2012 election.

And BTW, if this type of SPR release happens frequently -- TPTB will look deeper and notice this issue, if it is actually true.

I am still VERY BULLISH on oil (and copper) prices for the next decade or longer -- I'm just not buying this specific scenario.

[babystrangeloop]

Kosmos Says Transocean Rig Damage May Delay Ghana Drilling
By Jim Polson and David Wethe / Bloomberg / July 7, 2011

Kosmos Energy Ltd. said damage to Transocean Ltd. (RIG)’s Marianas rig may delay drilling of a well off Ghana’s coast.

A force majeure notice was delivered to the government of Ghana and Ghana National Petroleum Corp. after an anchor- handling accident damaged the rig, Dallas-based Kosmos said today in a statement. The Marianas was scheduled to arrive July 10 for drilling, Kosmos said.

... The rig started drilling the Macondo well on Oct. 6, 2009, and was damaged a month later by Hurricane Ida, according to a report posted on Transocean’s website. Drilling was suspended while the rig was moved to a shipyard for repairs. ...

... “There’s literally nothing in Ghana that can come back to work quickly,” Uhlmer said. “I think the most likely is to pull something from the Gulf.”

So why are we drilling in Ghana?

[babystrangeloop]

Transocean seeks shelter for Marianas
Anthony Guegel & Luke Johnson / Upstream Online / July 13, 2011

The apparent hull breach allowed seawater to invade the rig to the point of listing before the water ingress was checked.

... Industry blogs have speculated that the hull may have been damaged when one of the mooring anchors was winched up.

... That company issued a force majeure when it became apparent the Marianas would not be immediately available.

Drilling & Production — Quick Takes
Oil and Gas Journal / July 18, 2011

Kosmos Energy Ltd. of Dallas said the Marianas incident likely will delay Kosmos from drilling the Cedrela well in the West Cape Three Points block. Kosmos issued a July 7 statement saying it delivered a force majeure notice to the government of Ghana and Ghana National Petroleum Corp. The Marianas was scheduled to arrive July 10 for drilling, Kosmos said.

[babystrangeloop]

Wow, this one's going to be huge!

Formosa Refining Closures May Lead To Force Majeure On Exports
By Fanny Liu and Wayne Ma / DOW JONES NEWSWIRES via WSJ / August 1, 2011

TAIPEI (Dow Jones)--Taiwan's government has ordered Formosa Plastics Group to halt operations at facilities that were hit by a series of fires at its Mailiao petrochemical complex, including three 180,000-barrel-a-day [total 540,000] crude units run by its subsidiary Formosa Petrochemical Corp. (6505.TW), a move which may oblige the company to declare force majeure on its exports of refined oil products.

Traders said Formosa notified them in an e-mail earlier Monday that it won't be able to supply any gasoil starting August 1. It also said that "the worst case may lead [Formosa Petrochemical] to declare force majeure" on exports, and it asked gasoil buyers to "postpone all loading operations toward Mailiao port in August or September 2011." ...

[babystrangeloop]

Right in the middle of an ongoing manufacturing slump too.

Formosa declares force majeure on diesel,gasoline,fuel oil exports
Reporting by Seng Li Peng and Yaw Yan Chong; Editing by Sugita Katyal / Reuters / August 1, 2011

SINGAPORE Aug 1 (Reuters) - Taiwan's Formosa Petrochemical Corp has declared a force majeure on diesel, gasoline, fuel oil exports following a weekend fire at one of its units, but the exact duration was not immediately known, traders said on Monday.

"They will halt diesel exports for at least a month," said a trader.

Formosa exports about 800,000 tonnes of term and spot diesel a month, making it a key exporter of the product. ...

[babystrangeloop]

Middle East Oil Trades at Discount on Taiwan’s Refinery Shutdown
By Christian Schmollinger / Bloomberg / August 1, 2011

Middle East oil for sale to Asia traded at discounts on concern that the shutdown of a refinery in Taiwan may lead to extra supply on the market. ...

Middle East Crude-Oman slips on Formosa shutdown
Reporting by Florence Tan and Osamu Tsukimori in TOKYO; editing by Keiron Henderson / Reuters / August 1, 2011

SINGAPORE Dec 1 (Reuters) - The Middle East crude market slid on Monday after Formosa Petrochemical Corp, one of the largest refiners in Asia, shut its entire refinery for safety checks. ...

Safety checks and three bows.

Angry residents demand halt to petrochemical operations in Mailiao
The Central News Agency / August 1, 2011

Taipei, Aug. 1 (CNA) Angry residents staged a protest Monday at a petrochemical complex of conglomerate Formosa Plastics Group (FPG) in Mailiao, Yunlin County, demanding an immediate halt to all operational activities at the accident-stricken facility.

... Led by their township chiefs, the protesters called the complex a "bad neighbor," complaining that they all live in "fear" for the pollution caused by fires that have erupted in the factories on a alarmingly regular basis. These factories handle toxic petrochemical substances and materials.

... In response, Huang Yao-nan, a manager at Formosa Petrochemical's Mailiao office, bowed to the protesters three times to extend the company's deep apology. ...

OPEC crudes down USD 1.18 to USD 112.18 pb
KUNA / Power & Materials / August 1, 2011

VIENNA, Aug 1 (KUNA) -- The price of the 12-crude basket of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plunged USD 1.18 to USD 112.18 per barrel (pb) last Friday, from USD 113.36 pb the day before, OPECNA said here on Monday. ...