Petroleum reserves Pt. 2 (merged)

[bratticus]

Will they launch a nuclear war to kill off the 'excess' population to try to maintain a 'boutique' economy forever

Whatever for? To gild the lily?

Fukushima Nuclear Fuel Leaking Into Groundwater, Tepco Says Barrier Too Expensive, Will Hurt Stock Price
Compiled From a Provided Press Release; Edited by HNN / June 24, 2011

Hiroaki Koide, an assistant professor at the Kyoto University says melted fuel from inside the Fukushima nuclear reactor has melted through the containment vessel and is lying on the concrete foundations, sinking into the ground below. Japanese government officials have echoed this statement and have called on TEPCO to build an underground concrete barrier beneath the reactor which would be the only way to stop the molten fuel that is now leaking into the groundwater.

TEPCO so far is refusing to do so because the cost of the project will be over 100 billion yen. ...

[Quinny]

Do you think unemployment will ever drop below 7.2%?

I kinda think O has pulled all the levers he's got and nothing has worked.

I think I heard some head say no president has been reelected with unemployment this high. Whether this is a transparent election ploy or legitimate plan to stimulate the economy, the country is hurting for jobs and he'll get the blame.

Unfortunately for whoever came up with this lever, the banker will again get the benefit. A contango has already set up after the futures market had been flat (near month at the same price as the 11 month) so traders are in effect buying the government subsidized cheap oil and storing it to sell after the release is complete.

http://www.businessinsider.com/contango ... ase-2011-6

No president since WWII has been re-elected with greater than 7.2% unemployment.

It is HIGHLY unlikely that we will get below official 7.2% unemployment by election time.

[AgentR11]

Will they launch a nuclear war to kill off the 'excess' population to try to maintain a 'boutique' economy forever? Hope the nuclear winter will in some way offset global warming?

No way. Those are all people that will work hard for $5 a day. Blowing them up is bad for business.

What will they do when its not 2 million barrels of oil a day from Libya that's missing; but 10 million barrels of oil a day missing from all sources? Collapse has not been pretty so far.

I think its intentional... when the economy does a face plant, if its anything short of absolute collapse; the rich end up richer, and the cohort that is impoverished and powerless increases. Don't assume they are trying to avoid something that will improve their quality of life. Life is awesome when you have people desperate to cook, clean, and drive for you; and its even more awesome when you can pay them a puny wage to do it.

[AgentR11]

so traders are in effect buying the government subsidized cheap oil and storing it to sell after the release is complete.

Buy for 1, sell for 2. Capitalism 101.

[Sys1]

This is doing the exact OPPOSITE of what should be happening, in terms of the markets sending the correct price signals to energy consumers.

I'm going to pick on the U.S. here, since we have a terrible gas tax policy compared to the first world overall.

If Obama is going to inject 30 million barrels of liquidity into the U.S. when things (oil prices and/or the economy) get a little inconvenient, it just hastens the day oil gets even more expensive due to people making brilliant decisions like buying high mileage vehicles because they are "more convenient".

You are right but... as we are in a global economy, the oil not used by a country will make oil less expensive for another. We have a global economy but not yet a global policy regarding energy or ressources. Using SPR to ease oil price is like printing money to ease debts. You earn time, but this time will have to be paid back in a very tough way.
There should be a global meeting, a kind of energy G20 in order to reset the way our economy works. It's our only hope to mitigate the end of cheap oil.

[babystrangeloop]

I was thinking the very phrase "bridge to nowhere" yesterday and then today I found this:

Government Controlled Oil Stocks
Early Warning / June 24, 2011

the IEA warmly welcomes the announced intentions to increase production by major oil producing countries. As these production increases will inevitably take time and world economies are still recovering, the threat of a serious market tightening, particularly for some grades of oil, poses an immediate requirement for additional oil or products to be made available to the market. The IEA collective action is intended to complement expected increases in output by these producing countries, to help bridge the gap until sufficient additional oil from them reaches global markets.

I don't know - maybe Saudi production will indeed increase, and this release from the SPR is a bridge to somewhere. It's going to be very interesting to watch the next few months of statistics. But there are sure a lot of strange loose ends here that don't seem easy to unravel. If it turns out to be a bridge to nowhere, then there are going to be hard choices between stopping the flow of oil (thus sharply raising prices again), or continuing to drain the strategic reserves for an indefinite length of time.

The end of the thirty days of releasing oil will be very interesting indeed.

Isn't it funny how the start of the release is timed for the end of QE2?

[Bill Hicks]

No president since WWII has been re-elected with greater than 7.2% unemployment.

It is HIGHLY unlikely that we will get below official 7.2% unemployment by election time.

If the election were held today, Obama would win easily despite UE being well over 7.2% because he is running against a collection of zealots, charlatans and fools on the Republican side who have absolutely no answers for what ails us. He'd also largely get a pass on UE because many still think of it as a hangover from Chimpy Bush's tenure.

Now then, if there is another major market crash before November 2012 and the economy goes back into free fall, all bets are off...and I put the chances of that at better than 50-50.

[quadzillajim]

I kinda think O has pulled all the levers he's got and nothing has worked.

I think I heard some head say no president has been reelected with unemployment this high. Whether this is a transparent election ploy or legitimate plan to stimulate the economy, the country is hurting for jobs and he'll get the blame.

Unfortunately for whoever came up with this lever, the banker will again get the benefit. A contango has already set up after the futures market had been flat (near month at the same price as the 11 month) so traders are in effect buying the government subsidized cheap oil and storing it to sell after the release is complete.

http://www.businessinsider.com/contango ... ase-2011-6

There's always the boots on the ground start a new war lever. We always re-elect a president if we have just gotten into a new boots on the ground war.

[Sixstrings]

Road Trip!

Yup, fire up the gas-guzzling RV and party like it's 1999.

[Sixstrings]

No president since WWII has been re-elected with greater than 7.2% unemployment.

True.. but Obama's policies have been globalist free trading, pro Wall Street, pro-rich corporatist Republican policies. Yes Obama's Republican policies have failed.. so you think the voters will just elect an even more radical Republican?

We have no choice in the next election, it's moderate Republican Obama or a radical far right Republican. Or Mitt Romney, who's essentially Obama's clone. There's not a bit of difference between the two, Obama even passed Romney's health plan for Pete's sake. Romney was an investment banker.. versus Obama who wines and dines investment bankers, and appoints them all over his administration.

What choice do we have? How would Romney be different from Obama? I guess only thing Romney could do to out-Republican Obama would be double down on the Bush tax cuts or something. There's really not much for Romney to do, Obama's been such a good Republican -- Bush tax cuts check, more free trade deals, more war, Wall Street giveaways, Romneycare... honestly the Republicans just need to nominate Obama.

[Sys1]

Using non renewable ressources to build an entire civilisation is also a bridge to nowhere. A very high bridge, a cliff for human lemmings.

[peripato]

Road Trip!

Yup, fire up the gas-guzzling RV and party like it's 1999.

This release of less than one day's worth of global consumption was done in an environment of record inventories and falling demand (hmm, I wonder if the two might be linked in some way?). Prices were already on the way down, this action is just a stunt to cover the fact that the US and by extension, world economy, is slowly but surely sinking back under the mire and that the Great Recession Part Deux would have caused the oil price to drop anyway.

There is no "road trip" for the US and global economy going forward. Instead of a party, there will be a wake, as the black hole that was the old FIRE economy sucks more and more people, businesses and ultimately countries into its bottomless pit of deflation. In fact this process will only accelerate as it builds momentum.

[basil_hayden]

Road Trip!

Yup, fire up the gas-guzzling RV and party like it's 1999.

This release of less than one day's worth of global consumption was done in an environment of record inventories and falling demand (hmm, I wonder if the two might be linked in some way?). Prices were already on the way down, this action is just a stunt to cover the fact that the US and by extension, world economy, is slowly but surely sinking back under the mire and that the Great Recession Part Deux would have caused the oil price to drop anyway.

There is no "road trip" for the US and global economy going forward. Instead of a party, there will be a wake, as the black hole that was the old FIRE economy sucks more and more people, businesses and ultimately countries into its bottomless pit of deflation. In fact this process will only accelerate as it builds momentum.

Certainly you are correct, Peripato; but just like November 2009 there is a small window to load the Honda and do some family camping. The low prices should be fully kicked in by the end of July so it'll be perfect timing once again. I find it odd that the President is acting on his own without Congress quite a bit lately, in apparent fits of desperation. So it's likely that the light at the end of the tunnel is a train coming the other way.

[GoIllini]

This release of less than one day's worth of global consumption was done in an environment of record inventories and falling demand (hmm, I wonder if the two might be linked in some way?). Prices were already on the way down, this action is just a stunt to cover the fact that the US and by extension, world economy, is slowly but surely sinking back under the mire and that the Great Recession Part Deux would have caused the oil price to drop anyway.

There is no "road trip" for the US and global economy going forward. Instead of a party, there will be a wake, as the black hole that was the old FIRE economy sucks more and more people, businesses and ultimately countries into its bottomless pit of deflation. In fact this process will only accelerate as it builds momentum.

So it sounds like you're saying the fed should print money to pay off the debt and that we're facing deflation rather than hyperinflation. I'm taking away your doomer card.

Certainly you are correct, Peripato; but just like November 2009 there is a small window to load the Honda and do some family camping. The low prices should be fully kicked in by the end of July so it'll be perfect timing once again. I find it odd that the President is acting on his own without Congress quite a bit lately, in apparent fits of desperation. So it's likely that the light at the end of the tunnel is a train coming the other way.

Honestly, I think it's a diplomatic move, coordinated with the IEA, to try and scare Iran. The former CEO of Royal Dutch said 60 million barrels of oil has very little impact on oil prices.

My target oil price for the end of the year is $100-$110. Oil prices will remain high and remain the limiting factor on the economy, but it doesn't mean we're going into a crash. Just more stagflation, doom and gloom, etc until we move on to a better energy technology.

[John_A]

My target oil price for the end of the year is $100-$110. Oil prices will remain high and remain the limiting factor on the economy, but it doesn't mean we're going into a crash. Just more stagflation, doom and gloom, etc until we move on to a better energy technology.

$100-$110 sounds fair for both producers and consumers. I don't know if any new energy technology is required, rearranging job/home locations in a more bicycle friendly configuration alone would allow Americans at least to use way less crude in their commuting.

[GoIllini]

$100-$110 sounds fair for both producers and consumers. I don't know if any new energy technology is required, rearranging job/home locations in a more bicycle friendly configuration alone would allow Americans at least to use way less crude in their commuting.

It's happening. A recent survey by the NAR suggested that folks are looking at transportation options as a major factor in buying homes.

I think it's clear at this point that the days of Robert F. Moses where folks live far out in the suburbs with a 30 miles commute by car and spend an hour sitting in traffic waiting to cross the Henry Hudson Bridge are over. We're moving towards an economy where folks still have cars but don't necessarily need them. People will still live out in the suburbs just like they did in the late part of the 19th century/first half of the twentieth, but probably more within walking distance or within a few miles of a bus stop or train station. And it turns out they're finding it's more convenient to get to work, rather than less. As a moderate libertarian with a green streak, I find it interesting that the liberals of the 1950s and 1960s caused so much environmental and social damage trying to separate peoples' homes from their workplaces.

We are experiencing our bumpy transition to a world that Ehrlich would be a little more comfortable with. But I think in 20 years, we're going to find that we like this new normal a whole lot more than the old normal of spending billions of dollars to pave over communities to build congested roads. Even before we got hit with high oil prices, we kinda knew this was never a perfect system.

[Graeme]

Putin sees $309Bln in Oil Investment by 2020

Domestic oil companies plan to invest 8.6 trillion rubles ($309 billion) to 2020, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said.

Of that, 5.9 trillion rubles will be spent developing fields and 780 billion rubles will be spent on modernizing refineries, Putin said Thursday at a meeting of the United Russia party in Yekaterinburg.

The prime minister also said one of the government's top priorities is to put conditions in place for small and medium businesses to operate in the oil sector.

The development of small fields and raising well flows is a considerable reserve for sustaining oil production at 500 million tons, he said.

Major investment is needed in exploration, oil recovery and new technology, the prime minister said.

Putin said 60 percent of the 500 million tons of oil that the country produces comes from the West Siberian oil province.

themoscowtimes

[pana_burda]

"Hemos dicho que tenemos 300.000 millones de barriles, en cambio el Gobierno del presidente (Barack) Obama publicó un informe diciendo que allí se puede recuperar 500.000 millones de barriles. Seguramente así será porque ellos tienen más tecnología que nosotros", dijo el gobernante venezolano.
"We have said we have 300,000 million barrels, whereas the government of President (Barack) Obama issued a report saying that there can be recovered 500,000 million barrels. So it will probably because they have more technology than us," said the Venezuelan leader .

http://el-nacional.com/www/site/p_contenido.php?q=nodo/177461/Econom%C3%ADa/Ch%C3%A1vez:-reservas-petroleras-venezolanas-han-superado-a-Arabia-Saud%C3%AD

As I see it, those figures aren`t drawn out of a magician`s hat. The numbers just respond to a very clear political, and MILITARY agenda, masterminded and primarily promoted by the pro-cuban yet noisy puppet of the empire.

[Outcast_Searcher]

In 2009, USGS updated this value to 513 billion barrels

Who to trust anymore? The article is not clear as to what organization is certifying and decertifying this oil, and by what standards?

Since when do OPEC members have credibility on their oil reserves? Saudi Arabia, you know, the ones we're such great buddies with, never let any independent observers do impartial audits on their oil resources. And their annual stated numbers seem to have NOTHING to do with production, for example.

In OPEC, who to trust, ever?

[pstarr]

"Hemos dicho que tenemos 300.000 millones de barriles, en cambio el Gobierno del presidente (Barack) Obama publicó un informe diciendo que allí se puede recuperar 500.000 millones de barriles. Seguramente así será porque ellos tienen más tecnología que nosotros", dijo el gobernante venezolano.
"We have said we have 300,000 million barrels, whereas the government of President (Barack) Obama issued a report saying that there can be recovered 500,000 million barrels. So it will probably because they have more technology than us," said the Venezuelan leader .

http://el-nacional.com/www/site/p_contenido.php?q=nodo/177461/Econom%C3%ADa/Ch%C3%A1vez:-reservas-petroleras-venezolanas-han-superado-a-Arabia-Saud%C3%AD

As I see it, those figures aren`t drawn out of a magician`s hat. The numbers just respond to a very clear political, and MILITARY agenda, masterminded and primarily promoted by the pro-cuban yet noisy puppet of the empire.

it's sludge and it will never be produced.