Large and Unusual Blackouts

[pstarr]

John_A, I don't believe you understand Duncan's theory. As I understand it his Gorge is not dependent on natural-gas fired electricity but rather energy availability/capita world-wide. He uses electricity as a measure of industrial production

The Olduvai cliff (2012–2030) - 'begins ... in 2012 when an epidemic of permanent blackouts spreads worldwide, i.e. first there are waves of brownouts and temporary blackouts, then finally the electric power networks themselves expire'. It is clear that this is connected to fossil fuel production, as electricity generation is mainly fueled by oil, natural gas, coal and other non-renewable energy sources.

This theory is consistent with Liebig's Law of Minimum. Just as a weaver ant population would expire for lack of tree leaves, ours will go away with a decline of petroleum.

[babystrangeloop]

Blackouts have been happening since the invention of electrical power. Are you claiming that there are more of them now, then before? Do you have a chart showing how blackout frequency or length is now substantially different than all those other years?

Do you have a chart showing how blackout frequency or length is now NOT substantially different than all those other years?

[babystrangeloop]

Unprecedented load shedding results in closure of 70pc computer industries: PCA
Business Recorder / June 26, 2011

ISLAMABAD: The phenomenon of growing and cruel load shedding has made the entire business activities standstill. Besides, the students are facing tremendous hardships, especially those who have to use computer and IT related facilities.

Likewise, the IT experts and professionals are facing the same messy situation and despite assurance of officials that the time of shedding would be decreased gradually, the spells of load shedding are increasing and thus, hampering the computer industry and destroying the future of the students, said Munawar Iqbal, the central president of Pakistan Computer Association (PCA) and other office bearers, during a specially convened meeting here at PCA Central Office.

The office bearers of PCA, on the occasion, expressed their disappointment over the grave situation and informed the participants that as a result of unfavorable business conditions and menace of load shedding 70 % of computer industry has already forced to close down its business and rest is struggling for its survival in such harsh conditions. ...

[Pops]

[babystrangeloop]

two charts with no citations and only 2010 data

How are those relevant?

I could make up data too. Instead everything I post has the name of the author(s) (if given), the name of the source (always) and a link to the original source. Plus I only post reports from 2011 not stale data about the past.

Believe me I could save a lot of time by just posting unsupported random noise instead of something that takes more work to track down and keep on top of.

Admittedly there's the Olduvai Gorge chart but that's just a symbol, I don't consider it to be data.

Pops, your chart doesn't even mention electricity and that is what this thread is discussing so it's off-topic too.

[babystrangeloop]

Now back to our topic.

BP Global -> Reports and publications -> Statistical Review of World Energy 2011 -> Review by energy type -> Electricity
BP 2011

Total world electricity generation grew by 5.9% in 2010, the fastest growth in our data (since 1990) Electricity grew faster than both GDP and primary energy, as it has done for most of the past ten years

Isn't that cheery? To think the world is doing so great that we have to compare 2010 to the crater that 2009 was.

BP also provides the data in PDF format only so it's very hard to do math on. However I've taken the liberty of liberating the data into a spreadsheet and making some derivative calculations with it.

BP PDF original transformed into Google docs spreadsheet:
http://goo.gl/0ALVe

Same with some derivative calculations:
http://goo.gl/M6SUF

Notable is the additional column of percent change showing 2010 compared to 2008 (BP gives you 2010 vs 2009 percent change.)

Also at the bottom are my additions of "Non-Asian Pacific" and "Non-China".

Where does the beautiful 5.9% growth go when you compare non-Asian Pacific 2008 to 2010? It turns into 0.4%

[pstarr]

two charts with no citations and only 2010 data

How are those relevant?

I could make up data too. Instead everything I post has the name of the author(s) (if given), the name of the source (always) and a link to the original source. Plus I only post reports from 2011 not stale data about the past.

Believe me I could save a lot of time by just posting unsupported random noise instead of something that takes more work to track down and keep on top of.

Admittedly there's the Olduvai Gorge chart but that's just a symbol, I don't consider it to be data.

Pops, your chart doesn't even mention electricity and that is what this thread is discussing so it's off-topic too.

You are being harsh on The Pops. He doesn't lie and I trust the charts. No reason not to.

The worst you can say about Pops is that the view from his front porch is just a little too freakin' nice

Oh. By the way: Wiki: World energy consumption

[babystrangeloop]

The worst you can say about Pops is that the view from his front porch is just a little too freakin' nice

I posted a list of specific complaints. Neither you or he has addressed any of them.
Is this a popularity contest or are we discussing issues?
If it's a popularity contest why don't we just all pretend peak oil isn't real, it makes you much more popular to think like that.

[pstarr]

The worst you can say about Pops is that the view from his front porch is just a little too freakin' nice

I posted a list of specific complaints. Neither you or he has addressed any of them.
Is this a popularity contest or are we discussing issues?
If it's a popularity contest why don't we just all pretend peak oil isn't real, it makes you much more popular to think like that.

Didn't my chart and appropriate link to wikipedia satisfy your oh-so-demanding protocol?

But then you're not seriously accusing Pop and me of cornucopianism?

[Pops]

two charts with no citations and only 2010 data

How are those relevant?

I could make up data too. Instead everything I post has the name of the author(s) (if given), the name of the source (always) and a link to the original source. Plus I only post reports from 2011 not stale data about the past.

Believe me I could save a lot of time by just posting unsupported random noise instead of something that takes more work to track down and keep on top of.

Admittedly there's the Olduvai Gorge chart but that's just a symbol, I don't consider it to be data.

Pops, your chart doesn't even mention electricity and that is what this thread is discussing so it's off-topic too.

Sorry, the thunder started booming and I had to sign off quick.

I've been updating Duncans charts every year for quite a few years and posting them here. The charts are mine from the BP Stat. Review 2011 & US Census.gov. Duncan originally used BP data in Barrel Oil Equivalent and UN population figures.


Duncan's theory uses primary energy per capita as a measure of civilization, not electricity:

- Electricity is not a primary energy source, but rather an "energy carrier"
(Duncan, 2000)

-The third, or de-industrial phase lies immediately ahead during which time industrial economies will decline toward a new period of equilibrium, limited by the exhaustion of non-renewable resources and continuing deterioration of the natural environment.
(Duncan, 1989)

(Duncan, 1996)

There are a couple hundred pages over at dieoff.org with all Duncan's stuff, Jay Hanson, Jean Laherrere and lots more with good background info, you might want to check it out.


One more thing, if this is your typical attitude, I suggest you dial it back a tad and save us all some effort.

[John_A]

John_A, I don't believe you understand Duncan's theory. As I understand it his Gorge is not dependent on natural-gas fired electricity but rather energy availability/capita world-wide. He uses electricity as a measure of industrial production.

Duncan has several versions of his theory, don't know if he was updating as he went or just hoping to get it right by modifying it along the way. But I think you are quite right that the overall idea is that it is a per capita energy angle, except that per capita energy hasn't changed much since the 70's, I believe TOD did an update at some point in time and discovered that it had actually gone up as of late.

His update at the Energy Bulletin was where I found the cliff date for 2008. I think this is the place I found the north american natural gas reference.

http://www.mnforsustain.org/natural_gas ... n_1203.htm

[babystrangeloop]

BP Global -> Reports and publications -> Statistical Review of World Energy 2011 -> Review by energy type -> Electricity BP 2011

Total world electricity generation grew by 5.9% in 2010, the fastest growth in our data (since 1990) Electricity grew faster than both GDP and primary energy, as it has done for most of the past ten years

Isn't that cheery? To think the world is doing so great that we have to compare 2010 to the crater that 2009 was.

BP PDF original transformed into Google docs spreadsheet: http://goo.gl/0ALVe

Same with some derivative calculations: http://goo.gl/M6SUF

Notable is the additional column of percent change showing 2010 compared to 2008 (BP gives you 2010 vs 2009 percent change.)

Also at the bottom are my additions of "Non-Asian Pacific" and "Non-China".

Where does the beautiful 5.9% growth go when you compare non-Asian Pacific 2008 to 2010? It turns into 0.4%

Do you think 0.4% electricity supply growth would be enough if we switched to electric cars? I'm hoping they will be flying ones with hot tubs in them too!

[Pops]

Anyway, what I was going say was Duncan used total population in his formula and so do I on the charts.

It dawned on me that global population is not the same as global energy consumers and the number of global energy consumer is probably changing at at different rate than total population.

So the question is how to determine "energy consumers" and where I might be able to find a dataset?

Any ideas?

[babystrangeloop]

So the question is how to determine "energy consumers" and where I might be able to find a dataset?

Can you also find a dataset of "wanna be energy consumers" too?

[babystrangeloop]

Where does the beautiful 5.9% growth go when you compare non-Asian Pacific 2008 to 2010? It turns into 0.4%

So all the growth is in Asian Pacific.

In 2011 who are they now? Japan? China? BZZZT!

TABLE-China power shortage forecasts by region
Reporting by Jim Bai and Tom Miles; Editing by Chris Lewis / Reuters / June 15, 2011

Following are details on summer power shortage forecasts,
expected maximum loads, supply capacity in each region, as
reported by local grid operators, local governments or official
media.

All numbers are in gigawatts (GW).

Code: Select all

                                                    capacity   
CENTRAL CHINA   
  Jiangxi      2.2-2.4             14.5              12   
  Henan          4.85                               50.7^     
  Hunan          4.0                16              11.8    
  Chongqing      2.1               8.5*             11.6^   
  Hubei        1.8-3.8~           25.2              49.1^    
EAST CHINA    
  Zhejiang      3.5-5.0             50              57.2^   
  Anhui         2.5                                 29.3^   
  Jiangsu       11.0                69              59   
  Shanghai    0.6-1.1            28-28.5            27.4   
SOUTH CHINA*   
  Guangdong     4.0-6.5             73              70.9^   
  Guizhou      1.5-2.0              12              32.8^   
  Hainan        0.2                 2.3 -2.5         3.9^   
  Guangxi                           13.5-15.4       25.2^    
  Yunnan                            11-12           36.2^   
NORTH CHINA   
  Beijing        1.02               19.1             6.3^   
  Shandong       1.0                52              62.7^   
  Hebei          3.0                25-26.6         23.6   
  Tianjin        1.5                11.4            10.9^   
----------------------------------------------------------   
  Total#        42.87-47.87


^ total power generating capacity at the end of 2010. It
differs from supply capacity that includes delicate power
supplies from other regions or excludes delicate generation for
other regions. In addition, different types of generators,
nuclear, thermal, hydro or wind, have different utilisation
rates and thus represent different effective supply capacity.

* Forecasts are for the second quarter.

South Korea?

S.Korea eyes new LNG supply, power price hike
Reuters / June 14, 2011

Despite the risk of adding to inflationary pressures, Asia's fourth-largest economy plans to slowly increase the country's electricity tariffs gradually to curb inefficient consumption and slow power demand growth, Choi said.

"Electricity rates are below costs, which has sparked inefficient and excessive consumption," Choi said, adding South Korea's annual power consumption growth rate was 5.7 percent from 2002 and 2010.

Must be Vietnam, right?

Vietnam Needs To Develop More Than 12 Per Cent Power Supply A Year
BERNAMA / June 24, 2011

HANOI, June 24 (Bernama) -- Vietnam's power supplies need to be developed at more than 12 percent a year to meet domestic consumption, participants at the second annual Vietnam power summit were told Thursday.

The summit was organised by the World and Vietnam Report and Euromoney Seminars. Hundreds of specialists, policy makers and experts in electricity production, transmission and distribution attended, Vietnam News Agency (VNA) reported.

Total power supply this year is expected to be 111,000GWh, an increase of nearly 11 percent against last year, about 4.0 percent lower than last year.

"The country's total power supply last year was 97,335GWh, an increase of 14.82 percent over 2009," said head of the Electricity of Vietnam's (EVN) Planning Department, Trinh Ngoc Khanh, at the two-day conference.

... Figures released by EVN showed that last year electricity consumption was 86,000GWh. This year it is expected to hit 98,000GWh.

In the next 10 years, Vietnam plans to build 95 more new power plants with a total capacity of more than 49,000MW. Investment will amount to US$39.58 billion. ...

[babystrangeloop]

Generator groups power up
By Alistair Gray / FT / June 26, 2011

Energy shortages across much of the world – particularly in emerging markets – have resulted in a boom for companies that hire out temporary power generators, which fill the gaps.

... “It’s relentless,” says Rupert Soames, chief executive of London-listed Aggreko, which builds and operates temporary power stations for clients such as utilities, armies and mining companies.

... countries from South Africa to Pakistan battle to keep the lights on. Lebanon has rolling power cuts for three hours a day in the capital, Beirut.

Austrian chancellor won't rule out Greek default
The West Australian / June 27, 2011

... the country's influential unions have called a 48-hour walkout from Tuesday on top of rolling power cuts by disgruntled electricity workers that have hit households around the country for the past week.

TEPCO sees highest demand for power since March quake
The Yomiuri Shimbun / June 26, 2011

Electricity demand in areas serviced by Tokyo Electric Power Co. reached its highest level since the March 11 earthquake on Friday, hitting 43.89 million kilowatts between 2 and 3 p.m., the fourth straight day to see a post-disaster high.

With increased power consumption mainly due to air-conditioning, peak demand was 91 percent of TEPCO's 47.9 million kilowatt capacity.

[John_A]

BSL, do you have any theories on these types of infrastructure related blackouts and any reference as to why they are different, or there are more of them, than the normal kind of old style blackouts and such? Or do you wish this thread just to be news snips as to why increased demand might lead to blackouts if TPTB for any particular group decides to not keep up with new infrastructure construction? Hugo Chavez being a perfect example of how a country with tremendous resources but bad political commitment to infrastructure can really put themselves in a hole?

[Ferretlover]

Ahem. Off topic poosts split away. Keep on topic, please, gentlemen.

[babystrangeloop]

BSL, do you have any theories on these types of infrastructure related blackouts and any reference as to why they are different, or there are more of them, than the normal kind of old style blackouts and such?

Bad summer of power shortages threatens China economic growth
Michael Sainsbury / The Australian / June 23, 2011

The key reason behind the central government's inability to control the price of coal is that China has moved from being a self-sufficient coal producer to a net importer of coal.

Goodbye world's biggest economy which was based on selling cheap goods which was based on cheap energy which ended when China had to start buying coal from the world market instead themselves.

Goodbye to China's ability to regulate the price of energy inside China.

We can always fall back on Vietnam now, right?

Vietnam FDI inflow drops 1.9pc
REUTERS / June 26, 2011

HANOI: Foreign direct investment to Vietnam dropped 1.9 percent to $5.3 billion in the first six months of 2011, state-run media reported on Sunday.

... Vietnam's economy has been struggling with double-digit inflation and the government has had to cut its growth target this year to 6 percent from an initial projection of 7-7.5 percent and tighten money supply to help reign in the rising prices. ...

oh noes!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPWsQ7utB2s#t=2m37s

[John_A]

BSL, do you have any theories on these types of infrastructure related blackouts and any reference as to why they are different, or there are more of them, than the normal kind of old style blackouts and such?

Goodbye world's biggest economy which was based on selling cheap goods which was based on cheap energy which ended when China had to start buying coal from the world market instead themselves.

The world's largest economy isn't China, it is the US. And our economy is pretty heavy on the consumption side, compared to the rest of the world. And China, which has quite the trade imbalance to its advantage, can afford to buy even more expensive coal for quite some time.

Goodbye to China's ability to regulate the price of energy inside China.

Cool. Then the US can sell coal to them, at market prices, and they can alleviate their blackout problems. And we can play, economically speaking, on a more energy level playing fields. Considering who China has a trade imbalance with, this can be considered a positive event, no?