stephankrasner wrote:... after the crash...But this is way extreme!
Hi Stephan, welcome.
Not picking on you here but I think you've uncovered the biggest misconception and stumbling block for planning for a post peak future.
I'm going to say, just for the sake of argument, that the "crash" is happening right now. In fact it's already
happened for millions around the world. They've seen their net worth drop, lost their job, gone on aid of some kind, been put out of their homes, etc.
I'm also going to say that there will be such a wide difference in how individuals are affected as to make the "crash" pretty well invisible for a long time. This isn't necessarily because some people "prepared", but simply because incomes, local economies, governments, etc, are unique and more or less vulnerable to the effects of peak oil. But more than that, we all have a tendency to think things are going keep going on the current path and kind of ignore signs they aren't.
I lived in one of the hardest hit areas of the real estate crises.
Most of those "sales" the last couple years are actually title transfers - foreclosures, quit claims, etc and lately it's people buying up those foreclosures for rentals. That area was so hard hit because the market was dependent on commuters to sustain the property values - it's obvious from the chart that high gas prices hurt values there way before other areas had even peaked.
Unemployment there is now 25% and home values have dropped 60% - those are great depression numbers. But even there, for the people who still have a job, things haven't changed much. Sure, gas and food prices are higher, credit is harder to get, they probably are more thrifty, taxes are going up and gov services down but it certainly doesn't look like the Great Depression from their perspective.
So what am I blathering on about? A couple of things, first, don't bet on a big headline announcing:The End!
The announcement will more likely be the pink-slip in your pay packet.
The "crash" will not be of the Orlov collapse variety for most of us. The Soviet economic "system" fell apart because in was a monolith directed from the top. So called "free markets" are for the most part self organized - if you see a need and can make a profit by filling it you do it, that is a much more resilient set-up at the little guy level.
Big headlines like '08 are to be expected but they don't really have much to do with the average guy, they are just numbers that journalists can hang a headline on. For example, the average guy had already seen the writing on the wall back in '07 while the "experts" were still pumpin' and dumpin equities, derivatives and whatall':
I think it is a real mistake to think me and my neighbor will agree on exactly when it is "after the crash". The uneven "pink-slip distribution" means there will be pockets of relative wealth most everywhere for a long time, certainly enough to support order at the very least. And a big part of "order" is frowning on vigilanteism. Don't forget one man's militia is another's - well - militia
I'm not saying there won't be the occasional OK corral, just that planning for the wild wild west is probably a waste of time unless you're just entertaining fantasy.
[[edit: ... or basically what Lore said