The Deluge Thread Pt. 1 (merged)

[dohboi]

I've been following, this too. Here are links with a maps of the area that is being intentionally inundated. It's an enormous swath of Louisiana:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/05/14/MNKF1JGB7D.DTL

http://www.freep.com/article/20110515/NEWS07/105150624/Floodgate-raised-help-save-cities

Besides the immediate risk to all those mostly poor folks living in this area, there is the longer term risk that the force of the water will undermine the foundations of the causeways and floodgates and the river will redirect itself completely into the new path leaving Baton Rouge and New Orleans and all plants along the way with no barges to move the products of their industry. Ironic that a drastic plan intended to save those cities and industries by destroying many smaller towns and rural homesteads and farms might even more permanently obliterate their very reason for existence there.

[steam_cannon]

I think the most important point about the Atchafalaya/Mississippi problem isn't spelled out in the above articles.

The primary danger to the US Economy with the river changing course into the Atchafalaya is it's steeper run, steeper to the extent that it would not be good for running barges up it. The Mississippi is still used for a great deal of shipping goods in and out of the United States. So shutting down access to it would also close up a highly cost effective method of shipping goods in and out of the United States.

The in earlier times the Atchafalaya was a slow flowing river due to massive natural log jams, people blasted the log jams open to open up another shipping lane which didn't work out as expected and we've been fighting to control the river ever since.

[GASMON]

Big article here, lots of photos, one of the FEMA trailer camp for evacuees also.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... leans.html

Best wishes to all affected.

Gas

[Outcast_Searcher]

The primary danger to the US Economy with the river changing course into the Atchafalaya is it's steeper run, steeper to the extent that it would not be good for running barges up it. The Mississippi is still used for a great deal of shipping goods in and out of the United States. So shutting down access to it would also close up a highly cost effective method of shipping goods in and out of the United States.

Am I missing something? I assume this is a temporary solution. That once the flood waters recede in a month or two that the hole will be plugged up and the Mississippi will be back to its normal transportation state.

I'm not taking anything away from the other issues, like flooded cropland, evacuees, massive fertilizer runoff causing record marine life die-off in the GOM, etc. -- I'm just saying I don't think that this change is a long term issue for Mississippi river shipping, assuming this is a freak weather event. (And no, I'm not an AGW denier).

[dohboi]

The thing is that there is a real risk that the enormous force of the water will undermine the foundations of the sluices and gateways, as seems to have started to happen last time they had to do this. If a gateway washes out, there is no easy way to stop the Mississippi from forming a new route to the sea, leaving BR, NO and all the refineries and other infrastructure built around that water corridor stranded.

Apparently, many engineers and geologist in the region think this is an inevitability at some point.

[Outcast_Searcher]

The thing is that there is a real risk that the enormous force of the water will undermine the foundations of the sluices and gateways, as seems to have started to happen last time they had to do this. If a gateway washes out, there is no easy way to stop the Mississippi from forming a new route to the sea, leaving BR, NO and all the refineries and other infrastructure built around that water corridor stranded.

Apparently, many engineers and geologist in the region think this is an inevitability at some point.

I see. No planning for consequences of plans. Like putting back-up generators in the BASEMENT of reactor buildings in case of power outages due to massive flooding.

And since we treat infrastructure in the U.S. (primarily) as another can to kick down the road (at least since the 60's), it's not like there's lots of funding to deal with such issues should they occur.

Brilliant. It's just great to see again and again how well all the tax money I've "contributed" over the years has been used to make America a better place.

[Nefarious]

Am I missing something? I assume this is a temporary solution. That once the flood waters recede in a month or two that the hole will be plugged up and the Mississippi will be back to its normal transportation state.

The Mississippi has been trying to change course for a almost a 100 years. The natural flow of the water wants to go into the Atchafalaya. The Army corps of Engineers is fighting a losing battle. That river doesn't want to take that last turn and go through Baton Rouge and New Orleans, It wants to go straight down to the gulf at Morgan City.
IMHO the longer they fight and make this river go in a route it doesn't want to take the worse things will get.

[Cid_Yama]

Music from the 1927 flood

River Stay Away From My Door-Boswell Sisters

[dohboi]

And then there's Randy Newman's "Louisiana 1927:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQ9HgMo-Pdg

[TheDude]

And that's just the recent Holocene. Busy river, that. Mississippi delta lobes - Google Search. Wiki illustrates how the whole coastal structure of LA was built up post-4k BC - this after sea levels settled to modern levels, too. No Lake Pontchartrain, even. Pretty wild, and shows the job that keeping the river on a single course will entail. Mississippi River Delta - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[dohboi]

Thanks, Dude, for the awesome map and links. You can really see how the entire delta peninsula was formed by the various pathways to the see. I was fascinated to see a map of an ancient route of the MS up where I grew up in Minneapolis. I had ridden my bike down an unusually steep slope every morning after my paper route--a sharp hill in an otherwise quite flat city--and never really thought about it. It turns out that this was the ancient bluff of the Mississippi some thousands of years ago. Just to the north, there is a chain of lakes that were formed the same way. Suddenly the whole geography of the city takes on a different imaginative contour.

[TheDude]

Hey dohboi,

I'm fascinated by geology, especially that of the Neogene - that which finished up the landscape we see about us. Was reading last week about the Red River valley, which is most of your boundary between MN and ND; it used to be the outlet for Lake Agassiz; hence the river's current rather puny size for the valley it runs through, and its present tendency to flood like crazy - it's attempting to recreate that late Pleistocene lake formed when the ice sheets went into retreat at the start of the current interglacial period.

Round where I live there are various features formed by the Missoula Floods 16k-12k years ago, lakes scoured out by the floods going through gaps for instance. Kinda boggles the mind to imagine the local landscape being buried under 400 feet of water, not once but 40-90 times. I like to go for walks up a drive north of my house, at the foothills of the Chehalem Mountains - you can see where the flood deposits pinch out and give way to eroded flood basalt sediments that formed 16m years ago. Trippy stuff, and it's there even in the most built-up cities.

[DomusAlbion]

I'm fascinated by geology, especially that of the Neogene - that which finished up the landscape we see about us.

Well Dude, then you must love the Scab Lands up in central Washington. Fascinating area.

[dohboi]

Since we have a drought thread, I thought it would be appropriate to have a thread about extreme rain and snow fall events and the floods that generally follow.

Increases in number and intensity of both such events are of course predictable outcomes of GW. But that doesn't mean that anyone posting news about a particular event is making a particular claim about such influence.

As usual, though, I would like to politely ask those who are only interested in trolling (particularly denialist trolling) to give it a rest and stay off the thread.

Here's are some items to kick off discussion, or to cite the famous quote--'Apres moi, le deluge':

http://climateprogress.org/2011/05/17/record-flooding-gulf-coast/

http://www.henriettapost.com/highlight/x243994387/Online-Only-Climate-Change-Neck-deep-in-the-Big-Muddy

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/prairies/staring-down-a-deluge-manitoba-calls-flood-forecasting-veteran-out-of-retirement/article2018120/

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mississippi-hits-flood-stage-near-new-orleans-2011-05-15

http://news.mongabay.com/2011/0512-hance_africa_floods.html

[url]ongabay.com/2010/0808-hance_russia_asia.html[/url]

[DomusAlbion]

The Western United States has had a very wet winter and spring (as much as double in our area).

The Bonneville Power Administration is considering shutting down its extensive wind farms along the Columbia Gorge for the spring/summer because the excess snows in the Cascade and Northern Rocky mountains have led to excess capacity from the dams. Most power in the Northwest comes from hydroelectric plants. The sole nuclear generating plant is currently shut-in for maintenance.

Except for scattered flooding this excess water has been a boon to the area.

[dohboi]

Well, it IS a rain forest, and they have spent a lot of thought about how to make the best use of their bounty of rain. Do you see things that other areas could learn from the experiences and strategies of the American Northwest?

[DomusAlbion]

Well, it IS a rain forest

No, it is NOT. Just the Olympic Peninsula is classified as a rain forest and it's a small percentage of the territory that is the Pacific Northwest. We've got everything from high alpine forests to high plains and deserts that normally only get 7 inches of rain a year. Where we live the average rainfall is around 16 inches/yr which is just right for the dryland farming that takes place here. I believe we'll be close to matching that amount this year by June.

Climate Change will effect different areas in sometimes surprising ways. So far it has been a blessing up here, though I sure could use a little more heat. Each locality will have to watch trends and adjust as best they can, if the changes are gradual enough we should be able to keep up. Unfortunately we are seeing some dramatic changes everywhere.

[dohboi]

Thanks for the correction. At least there is SOME rain forest up there.

And, yes, GW will temporarily create some winners among the mass of losers in the short term, but in the not-too-long run, it will make losers of us all.

Wiscur (is he still around?) is doing the wise thing by raising a wide variety of types of each crop each of which thrives in a wide variety of climactic conditions. This way, short of an absolutely devastating drought or flood, he is likely to get at least something, even if he has also guaranteed that he will not get as much as his neighbor who bets the whole lot on one variety.

This kind of wisdom and redundancy is 180% from the monoculture that has become dominant in ag.

[DomusAlbion]

Wiscur (is he still around?) is doing the wise thing by raising a wide variety of types of each crop each of which thrives in a wide variety of climactic conditions.

This is what we're attempting and we've gone all organic. We're mostly in pasture but have an orchard of over 40 trees and a good sized vegetable/herb garden that by 2012 should supply most of our needs and can then be expanded as the need arises. And it will as our grown family and our neighbors head into trouble. To mitigate the variables in climate I'm designing a 32ft x 18ft passive solar green house. The goal is to keep the cost below $2K by building it myself with salvaged glass and using straw bales & stucco. The greatest expense will be the lumber.

[dohboi]

Awesome. Any pics?

Best of luck in an uncertain future.

db

"There is hope, but not for us." F. Kafka