meemoe_uk wrote:2. Discovery of new oil fields peaked 40 years ago and very large fields earlier still (?)
No, discovery is too ambiguous to be sure of the numbers. 1st, Most middle east supergiants discovered before 1970, the ones that make up the peak of discovery in doomer charts, would have run dry long ago if it wasn't for later much more oil being 'discovered' in those same reserviors.
Sure, reserve numbers go up (and down) with price, and technology has "discovered" more oil in fields first located in the 30's and 40's - you'd kinda expect that. How did they find oil back then anyway - divining rod or the Jed Clampett method? But revisions aren't "new" fields, and up 'till they started looking under salt things were pretty slow.
But Sugar-Loaf/Tupi/etc really could be something huge, maybe even a years worth of consumption when it's all said and done. Of course we'd better hope we make some discoveries or we really are cooked.
Still BP last year only showed a couple of years increase in reserves/use after all that.
meemoe_uk wrote:4. As oil exporting nations deplete reserves and consume more oil internally, their exports fall.[/i]
Ok. But we're still waiting for the US to significantly deplete it's oil reserves. The US is today pulling just below 1970\1 record amounts of crude.
Piss! I didn't read this, I thought you were being serious. Go do some homework.
Here let me hekp, I've wasted this much time.