US economic recovery is complete. pt 1 Archived

[Pops]

I'd venture that one of the problems in this recovery is that people are stranded and can't move even if they did find a job. They are either underwater in their home or they can't sell because of crappy demand - yeah, some existing homes are selling but at 20th century prices...

[MontrealMichelle]

We don't need a pile of reports or statistics - only our own eyes to see that America is still reeling and any "recovery" that is supposedly happening is a grand illusion fabricated by the pols for their own convenience. There is really no credible source of objective data any more in America.

[eXpat]

We don't need a pile of reports or statistics - only our own eyes to see that America is still reeling and any "recovery" that is supposedly happening is a grand illusion fabricated by the pols for their own convenience. There is really no credible source of objective data any more in America.

We agree on that Michelle, actually, we are just having fun here at expense of Oily and other cornies that sometimes run out of meds, and then their delusion strikes hard harmless fun really.

[OilFinder2]

Here's some more work for Armageddon's backbone of America.

LINK

Durable Goods Orders Very Strong In March
By Dirk van Dijk Apr 27, 2011, 1:39 PM

New Orders for Durable Goods rose 2.5% in March. That was well above the consensus expectations of an increase of 1.8%. In addition, the February numbers were revised sharply upwards. It was first reported as an decrease of 0.6%, but now they say new orders rose 0.6%. All in all, a nice combination of acceleration, positive surprise and upward revisions.

Part of the story was the extremely volatile Transportation Equipment side, and more specifically, from the Non-Defense Aircraft component, which is often the case when we get an unusually good (or bad) headline durable goods number. That is mostly orders for big 777’s and 747’s from Boeing (BA), which are very expensive items. It also includes orders for business jets from firms like Textron (TXT). A few orders for new jumbo jets can really skew the numbers for the month.

Excluding transportation equipment, new orders rose 1.3%, slightly above expectations for a 1.2% increase. Last month was revised upwards from a decline of 0.3% to an increase of 0.6%. Overall transportation equipment orders were up 5.9%, and non-defense aircraft were up 0.9%.

[...]

[Armageddon]

[size=150][Wal-Mart: Our shoppers are running out of money/size]

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Wal-Mart's core shoppers are running out of money much faster than a year ago due to rising gasoline prices, and the retail giant is worried, CEO Mike Duke said Wednesday.

"We're seeing core consumers under a lot of pressure," Duke said at an event in New York. "There's no doubt that rising fuel prices are having an impact."




Just a matter of time Oily. Peak oil is about to crash the entire system.

[dolanbaker]

New Orders for Durable Goods rose 2.5% in March. That was well above the consensus expectations of an increase of 1.8%. In addition, the February numbers were revised sharply upwards.

given the fact that many "durable" goods are designed to run trouble free for only five years or so (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_obsolescence), and the boom times were 5-10 years ago, it's really no surprise that sales are up.

Consumers of five year old "Durables" that are faulty only really have three choices, repair, replace or do without!

[Keith_McClary]

Housing is becoming more affordable:
Slide in home prices only accelerating, report finds
Posted by Scott Van Voorhis April 26, 2011

The latest Case-Shiller numbers don't look pretty.

Home prices fell or were flat year over year in all 20 major metro markets with the sole exception of Washington, with its overheated government-driven economy, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite.

And in ten cities, home values hit their lowest point since prices began falling in earnest four years ago.

[eXpat]

More Americans Raiding Retirement Funds Early

Despite increasing signs of a stabilizing U.S. economy, 19 percent of Americans — including 17 percent of full-time workers — have been compelled to take money from their retirement savings in the last year to cover urgent financial needs, the Financial Security Index found.

Though 80 percent of full-time workers didn't dip into retirement funds, far too many consumers are ill-prepared for emergencies, says Kim McGrigg, manager of community and media relations at Money Management International, a credit counseling agency.

"Perhaps the most alarming thing about these numbers is that they suggest a lack of other options," she says. "Consumers generally consider using retirement funds only as a last resort."

Michael Masiello, founder of the Masiello & Associates wealth management firm in Rochester, N.Y., agrees. "I believe that 17 percent of full-time workers taking early withdrawals is a higher than normal number, and it's certainly higher than it should be," he says.

The potential consequences of tapping retirement funds include early withdrawal fees, taxes and the loss of compound earnings — not to mention the prospect of being unable to retire.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42780317

[Outcast_Searcher]

Not all construction workers are high school dropouts and dimwits. Maybe some of the Mexican house-framers who speak little English and have little formal education would have a hard time transitioning, but a lot of the others are likely trainable if the will is there.

So let's assume some percentage have "the will".

Fine. How about the resources?

Our government SHOULD be helping people who are willing to retrain, but you don't see much seriously done about that. By far, most people have to go WAY into debt to get a college education (the first time).

It used to be that large corporations which looked to the future would involve their good employees in continuous training by letting them take classes on the job that helped strengthen their technical skills. From what I experienced at IBM, and from what I read in books like "White Collar Sweatshop", that's no longer the case. Just fire your workers and offshore them to somewhere cheap. The fact the work once offshored is done poorly if at all seems somehow irrelevant, which always puzzled me.

With all the shouting about unemployment benefits, automation, and union benefits - key things like educational improvement just get ignored in the U.S. Despite speeches by Obama saying we need to "invest in America", at the end of the day, I think this item will get kicked down the road like all the rest.

Then when Asia (for example) continues to kick our asses economically, we wonder why.

[OilFinder2]

Our government SHOULD be helping people who are willing to retrain, but you don't see much seriously done about that.

I agree they should, but many (if not most or all) *do* have programs to help workers retrain for various in-demand vocations. Several weeks ago I posted a program in Washington state which helps wanna-be Boeing employees train for certain things, for example.

It just depends on the state. Not sure what the federal government does in that regard, but I suspect there are at least a few programs they've got to help people train for new careers.

[OilFinder2]

^
Here's the article I was referring to:

>>> LINK <<<

Also, in companies which are unionized, the union sometimes works with the company to provide training of various sorts. I think Boeing does that with the machinists union.

Don't know about other industries, I just happen to know about this one and so used it as an example. But I doubt it's unique.

[Armageddon]

Oily, how about that GDP ? Not too pretty, huh ?

[OilFinder2]

^
Meh, it was around the consensus. We'll see what the revisions say.

[vision-master]

Like why do you really care anyhoo oily - tell us 'what is the reason'.....

[dinopello]

Wal-Mart Shoppers are Running Out of Moolah

"We're seeing core consumers under a lot of pressure," Duke (Walmart CEO) said at an event in New York.

What the heck is a "core consumer"?

[Daniel_Plainview]

^
Meh, it was around the consensus. We'll see what the revisions say.

GDP slows sharply in first quarter; jobless claims soar by 25K

A pair of weak economic reports Thursday show the American recovery remains fragile: Economic growth slowed sharply in the first quarter, and jobless claims unexpectedly jumped by 25,000 last week.

The first report was widely expected. The Commerce Department said the nation’s output of goods and services expanded at an annual rate of 1.8% in the first three months of the year. That was down from 3.1% growth in the fourth quarter and 2.8% for all of last year.

The slowdown reflected the sapping effects of rising oil prices on consumer spending and the nation’s trade. National defense spending fell early this year, and budget-strapped state and local governments added to the weaker expenditures.

Many economists weren’t concerned too much about the slowdown, believing much of it was due to temporary factors such as higher fuel costs and harsh winter weather that further held back consumers.

Officials at the Federal Reserve as well as many private forecasters expect economic output to bounce back up to 3% or higher in the rest of the year -- although it remains to be seen whether global economic and political problems, particularly the unrest in the Middle East that is behind the spike in petroleum prices, will ease in the coming months.

Even with the slower pace of growth, the nation’s output in the first quarter, annualized, exceeded $15 trillion for the first time, as measured in current dollars. By this measure, the U.S. recovered from the recent deep recession in the spring of last year.

But the job market is another story. The U.S. economy today still has about 7 million fewer payroll jobs than it did at the end of 2007 when the recession began. And though hiring has picked up in recent months, the gains haven’t been anywhere as quick or stellar as corporate profits -- as Thursday’s report on unemployment claims showed.

The Labor Department said the number of workers filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose by 25,000 to 429,000 in the week ending last Saturday. Although these figures are volatile from week to week, analysts noted that this was the third straight week in which the filings had exceeded 400,000. And the latest number is the highest since late January.

Some seasonal and temporary factors may have played a role in the latest jump in unemployment claims. That includes the Easter holiday and the disaster in Japan, which disrupted delivery of parts in the auto and electronics industry. Though analysts said it was too early to say the labor market was losing momentum, the report was nonetheless a discouraging sign in an economy that is struggling with nearly 9% unemployment.

--Don Lee

LA Times

[Keith_McClary]

What the heck is a "core consumer"?

http://lazybfarm.files.wordpress.com/20 ... g_1344.jpg

[OilFinder2]

Like why do you really care anyhoo oily - tell us 'what is the reason'.....

There is no single reason.

No doubt y'all want me to say, "Rising oil prices." But oil prices also rose in the 4th quarter from the 3rd quarter and yet GDP accellerated in Q4.

[OilFinder2]

Y'know, now that I look at some of the details of the GDP report, it's not really all that bad. Nothing to write home about either, but not a train wreck by any means.

BEA

-- Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 1.8 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in the fourth.

So, growth in personal consumption actually increased from the prior quarter.

However ...

Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 0.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 6.7 percent in the fourth.

How to explain the discrepency? Here's the rub:

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 7.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 0.3 percent in the fourth. National defense decreased 11.7 percent, compared with a decrease of 2.2 percent. Nondefense increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 3.3 percent, compared with a decrease of 2.6 percent.

So, the tepid growth in real final sales of domestic product can be explained by a significant decrease in government spending. Take that away and it would have been a much better headline number.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Karl Denninger notes correctly that the reason for the massive deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily is due to "[1] the government's running out of the ability to deficit spend, [2] non-residential fixed investment (that is, actual investment) is slowing, and [3] consumption on a discretionary basis is going through the floor due to increases in the cost of food and energy." Looks like Ben's QE2 is indeed backfiring (higher commodity prices). And now the govt is increasingly unable to spend with deficit dollars. OOPS!