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THE International Monetary Fund Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: IMF oil price shock warning! >130$/b

Unread postby americandream » Wed 13 Apr 2011, 01:09:32

yeahbut wrote:
americandream wrote:Very little public transport out here in the sticks (most of the South Island ie)


True. No doubt all kinds of changes will be forced on us, and they will be different from region to region. Lots of them wont be much fun, I'm sure. I have to drive a lot for my job, and it starts to hurt about now, price-wise. Nevertheless, I still say bring it on. I see no factor other than money that the majority of the public respond to- hence the Nats can buy an election with tax cuts, or Labour with interest-free student loans, etc. If that's what it takes to get changes in mindless consumerism, then that's what it takes.

What's with the Americanism, "gas", mate?


1)who cares?
2)ever 'stopped for gas'? ever 'gassed up' the car? I have..
3)nothing like being called on your koiwoi-ness by a non-native :lol:
4)ok "american dream" :razz:


Mate, you lost the right to deem South Africans non-natives when you stole our sports players. 8O . C'mon mate. No one in the Anglo-Saxon world uses the word "gas" when referring to petrol. You're on a slippery slope here. Next thing we know, you'll be zeeing your zeds, if you haven't already!!

On a serious note, New Zealand is busted big time. Whether it is oil or our addiction to debt, there's some serious belt tightening ahead, and motoring will take a hit. Problem is out here in the sticks, public transport is zero and I daren't cycle on the busier roads.
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Re: IMF oil price shock warning! >130$/b

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 13 Apr 2011, 04:14:37

Whether it is oil or our addiction to debt, there's some serious belt tightening ahead, and motoring will take a hit. Problem is out here in the sticks, public transport is zero and I daren't cycle on the busier roads.


If things get really bad, the main roads will be relatively safe as most of the other motorists will be in the same boat! It will be like a 1970s chinese motorway.

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Re: IMF oil price shock warning! >130$/b

Unread postby yeahbut » Wed 13 Apr 2011, 18:41:32

americandream wrote:Mate, you lost the right to deem South Africans non-natives when you stole our sports players. 8O .


Good. I know who to blame when we lose the cup in the semis again :o

C'mon mate. No one in the Anglo-Saxon world uses the word "gas" when referring to petrol.


er...been to the gas station recently? :-D ever run out of gas? how about just been 'gassed' when you're all out of energy? that linguistic train left the station a long, long time ago. America is a language generator. Check out Bill Bryson's 'Made in America'- it's incredible how much of our way of speaking, including hundreds upon hundreds of verbs, is straight from the States.

You're on a slippery slope here. Next thing we know, you'll be zeeing your zeds, if you haven't already!!


Goddammit don't make me kick your ass!

On a serious note, New Zealand is busted big time. Whether it is oil or our addiction to debt, there's some serious belt tightening ahead, and motoring will take a hit. Problem is out here in the sticks, public transport is zero and I daren't cycle on the busier roads.


Yeah, I know a good few people who are out in the wops and who have to drive fairly long distances for work and shopping etc. I wonder if the initial phase of PO will involve a further hollowing out of the countryside? Long-term I guess movement will be in the other direction, but what is someone living in 100 ks from their work sposed to do when gas (hah!) is $4/litre?
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Re: IMF oil price shock warning! >130$/b

Unread postby americandream » Wed 13 Apr 2011, 19:37:55

Wots the bet you're a Ad hom deleted ? We're still behind the times down here seein as we don't have buses. :(

Small towns and settlements are pretty much buggered as oil prices rise. As it is, there's something of a flight from places like Seddon where house prices are plummeting. I can see a return back to the '80's when small town New Zealand was solo mum land.

I'm in two minds about what's happening. On the one hand, I reckon it will devastate small communities, on the other I see it as inevitable and a perhaps necessary step to weaning us off imports of trash which no one needs. I reckon all this poncy convenience has made us a bit lazy, arrogant and soft. You just don't see op shops these days and no one will buy secondhand...well most anyways. This may well trigger some sort of local spirit of community enterprise and support.
Last edited by Ferretlover on Thu 14 Apr 2011, 21:01:28, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Deleted Ad Hom.
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Re: IMF oil price shock warning! >130$/b

Unread postby Crusty » Thu 14 Apr 2011, 19:20:36

Or... Small Town NZ goes Transitional, smart blokes buy cheap as housing, start gardening on your good soil and regular rainfall, gear up before TSHTF and are stuck there with all those Single Mums and very few blokes.

Hmmm... sounds like a Martyr's Paradise (except they're not virgins.....obviously)
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I Money Fund bombshell: Age of America Nears End

Unread postby Carlhole » Mon 25 Apr 2011, 11:54:38

MarketWatch (watch video at the link)
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed.
For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the “Age of America” will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China. And it’s a lot closer than you may think. According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now. Put that in your calendar.
It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington, D.C., right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years. And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world’s hegemonic power.

According to the IMF forecast, whomever is elected U.S. president next year — Obama? Mitt Romney? Donald Trump? — will be the last to preside over the world’s largest economy.


Wow.
Last edited by Carlhole on Mon 25 Apr 2011, 14:17:51, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America Nears End

Unread postby JohnRM » Mon 25 Apr 2011, 12:18:31

I am just wondering why the average American should care.
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Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America Nears End

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 25 Apr 2011, 12:28:15

JohnRM wrote:I am just wondering why the average American should care.
They don't. They are maroons. 8)
Yikes!
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Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America Nears End

Unread postby Carlhole » Mon 25 Apr 2011, 12:38:42

JohnRM wrote:I am just wondering why the average American should care.


Read the article and watch the video. It talks about American-style hegemony vs Chinese-style hegemony.

Once you end economic hegemony, you end the financial boons due to reserve currency status and all that. We will probably be walloped with inflation like we've never seen. It hasn't got so much to do with peak oil as it has to do with the aging of America and the relatively young, highly educated, extremely motivated (not to mention HU-phuking-MONGOUS) Chinese population.

It means Americans' standard of living will decline to affordable and manageable levels -- except for the elites, that is. Ouch.
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Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America Nears End

Unread postby FairMaiden » Mon 25 Apr 2011, 12:43:07

You might want to repost the link/video since sixstring's thread comes up as deleted...which is crazy bc second hit on my google search came up with that deleted post! haha.
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Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America Nears End

Unread postby Sixstrings » Mon 25 Apr 2011, 12:46:45

Carlhole wrote:Oops. Didn't notic six strings post same subject.


No prob Carl I deleted my thread no replies in that one yet.

Carlhole wrote:It means Americans' standard of living will decline to affordable and manageable levels -- except for the elites, that is. Ouch.


Which explains why the elites are invested in China. They're not stupid -- this place is going down, and the elites have wisely hitched their wagons to China. The die is cast and their will be no change.. our elites are already invested in Chinese success.
Last edited by Sixstrings on Mon 25 Apr 2011, 12:56:47, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America Nears End

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 25 Apr 2011, 12:46:58

So if the Age of America ends, do we still get our Carhole-predicted singularity?
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Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America Nears End

Unread postby eXpat » Mon 25 Apr 2011, 12:50:18

FairMaiden wrote:You might want to repost the link/video since sixstring's thread comes up as deleted...which is crazy bc second hit on my google search came up with that deleted post! haha.

Link to the article posted earlier in another thread
http://peakoil.com/forums/us-economic-recovery-is-complete-expansion-has-begun-t60712-345.html
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Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America Nears End

Unread postby Carlhole » Mon 25 Apr 2011, 14:13:41

mos6507 wrote:So if the Age of America ends, do we still get our Carhole-predicted singularity?


I said: It is just as ridiculous to totally believe in The Singularity idea as it is to totally believe in the Olduvai Gorge scenario. But, of course, idiots like you and pstarr continually bring up some other bonehead notion.

SciTech only ever increases in crisis times. Witness WWII. There's nothing to indicate that there has been any reversal in the trend of rapidly advancing Science and Technology. You can't have an Olduvai Gorge if Science is racing ahead exponentially.

Predict when peak Science will occur and then come and argue with me. So far, nothing gives any indication that progress in Science & Technology is slowing down whatsoever.
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Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America Nears End

Unread postby Oneaboveall » Mon 25 Apr 2011, 16:04:26

Sixstrings wrote:Which explains why the elites are invested in China. They're not stupid -- this place is going down, and the elites have wisely hitched their wagons to China. The die is cast and their will be no change.. our elites are already invested in Chinese success.

In what way is this wise? It seems like something that could blow up in their faces.
When the banksters want something, our policymakers move with the speed of Mercury and the determination of Ares. It’s only when the rest of us need something that there is paralysis.

How free are we today with the dominance of globalist capital and militarized security apparatus?
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Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America Nears End

Unread postby dsula » Mon 25 Apr 2011, 16:08:26

Carlhole wrote:Predict when peak Science will occur and then come and argue with me. So far, nothing gives any indication that progress in Science & Technology is slowing down whatsoever.

Tech needs energy. Peak energy results in peak science. Skewed of course, depending where society decides to allocates its resources.
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Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America Nears End

Unread postby Carlhole » Mon 25 Apr 2011, 16:09:50

dsula wrote:
Carlhole wrote:Predict when peak Science will occur and then come and argue with me. So far, nothing gives any indication that progress in Science & Technology is slowing down whatsoever.

Tech needs energy. Peak energy results in peak science. Skewed of course, depending where society decides to allocates its resources.


Then make a prediction.
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Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America Nears End

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 25 Apr 2011, 16:10:16

Carlhole wrote:It hasn't got so much to do with peak oil as it has to do with the aging of America and the relatively young, highly educated, extremely motivated (not to mention HU-phuking-MONGOUS) Chinese population.
China is aging faster than the US is. Further, unlike the US, China is getting old before it gets rich:

SINCE the 1970s China’s birth rate has plummeted while the number of elderly people has risen only gradually. As a result its “dependency ratio”—the proportion of dependents to people at work—is low. This has helped to fuel China’s prodigious growth. But this “demographic dividend” will peak in 2010.

It shows that from 1975 - 2010, China's one child policy helped create an economically-beneficial situation whereby the proportion of dependents in the population fell over time. Thus the country had increasingly more workers (producing economic output) per dependent (consuming output).

However, 2010 and onwards is when it's time to pay the piper. The proportion of elderly dependents will enter a multi-decade growth phase, whereby there will be increasing numbers of non-working dependents for each working-age person to support. Thus what was once a substantial tailwind reverses into a GDP-grinding headwind, starting next year.
China's Multi-Decade Worker Shortage Starts Next Year

For three decades China's one-child policy helped power this nation's economic rise. With fewer mouths to feed, families saved. Poverty fell. Living standards improved. But a social experiment that worked well in some respects is now threatening the country's hard-won gains. China's working-age population -- the engine behind its prolific growth -- will start shrinking within a few years.

Meanwhile, the ranks of elderly are projected to soar. By the middle of this century, fully a third of China's population will be age 60 or older, compared with 26% in the United States. China's projected 438 million senior citizens will outnumber the entire U.S. population.

With fewer workers to support an aging society in need of care, China faces the same demographic squeeze confronting Western nations. The difference: China's family-tinkering policy has accelerated a shift that the country is ill-prepared to manage and finance. "The problem is the age wave is coming while China is still relatively poor," said Richard Jackson of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. "China may be the first major country to grow old before it grows rich."

Advances in family planning, nutrition and healthcare have resulted in longer life spans and fewer babies across much of the globe. The populations of developing regions such as Latin America and Asia are still much younger than those of U.S. and European societies. But they're aging much more quickly, lacking the time and resources to stitch together old-age social safety nets on par with those of rich, industrialized nations. Despite its dazzling economic growth, China is still a low-income country. Its per-capita GDP in 2008 was just over $5,000, one-ninth that of the United States.

there's no question that the one-child policy reduced fertility faster and sooner, a process some have dubbed "premature aging."
China's elderly will overwhelm the nation
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Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America Nears End

Unread postby Livewire713 » Mon 25 Apr 2011, 16:18:57

Oneaboveall wrote:
Sixstrings wrote:Which explains why the elites are invested in China. They're not stupid -- this place is going down, and the elites have wisely hitched their wagons to China. The die is cast and their will be no change.. our elites are already invested in Chinese success.

In what way is this wise? It seems like something that could blow up in their faces.


I agree, look what has happen to Fellowes. If the Elites start getting treated like second class citizens you know they'll come running home to mommy.
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Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America Nears End

Unread postby Oneaboveall » Mon 25 Apr 2011, 16:25:29

Livewire713 wrote:I agree, look what has happen to Fellowes. If the Elites start getting treated like second class citizens you know they'll come running home to mommy.

I know. I'm the one who started the thread on Fellowes.
Last edited by Ferretlover on Mon 09 May 2011, 15:05:11, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Excessive requoting deleted per COC.
When the banksters want something, our policymakers move with the speed of Mercury and the determination of Ares. It’s only when the rest of us need something that there is paralysis.

How free are we today with the dominance of globalist capital and militarized security apparatus?
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