THE Earthquake Thread (merged)

[vision-master]

Don't forget the CME that's gonna hit us within two years that will knock out our ele grid for Months. MORE DOOMER PORN!

[Ferretlover]

Take a look at what experts are increasingly calling the so-called ring of fire that is encircling the entire Pacific Ocean. You remember Chile's massive earthquake about a year ago. Then we had that big one in New Zealand just last month. Then of course Japan.

If this clockwise trend continues, my next guest says North America looks to be on tap next. Don't laugh. Geologist Jim Berkland is worried. When he worries, you should worry too. Jim accurately predicted, get this, the 1989 so-called World Series earthquake four days before it shook the San Francisco Bay Area.

(snip) JIM BERKLAND, GEOLOGIST: The month of October, March, and April are the three most devastating earthquakes in terms of damage in the San Francisco Bay Area in history. And we are having on the 19th of this month not only the full moon, but within an hour the closest approach of the moon to the earth until the year 2016. The next day is the equinoctial tides. So you're bringing together three of the maximum tide raising forces. We know about the ocean tides. But there is also an Earth tide. And there is a tide in the ground water. All of these help to release sudden, built up strain, and cause earthquakes.

(snip) Well, if it was, one in the northwest, in the Cascadia Trench, like we had in 1700, that would be a nine magnitude quake. I'm not predicting that. But I'm saying we just had a massive fish kill. Maybe a million fish died in Redondo Beach. They had a massive fish sweep in Mexico. We just had a bunch of whales come in close to San Diego.

(snip) Changes -- changes in the magnetic field that off then precede larger earthquakes. Most animals have the mineral magnetite in their bodies, including people. But it causes homing pigeons to enable them to get home. Just before big quakes, they often can't get home. There is the delay factor. So we look for those kinds of things.

Just before the World Series quake there was very unusual beaching of rare whales in the Ocean Beach, in San Francisco. Just after that, a equally rare pigmy sperm whale washed up at Santa Cruz, within about five miles of the epicenter of the World Series quake. That kind of beaching had never occurred before nor since. So we're looking for strange fish coming into from deepwater to the shallow water, wild animals coming into cities.

I used to just scoff at these kinds of things, because I was a mainstream geologist until I found out that earthquakes are fitting a pattern. The big earthquake in the Indian Ocean followed massive beachings of whales in Taiwan -- not Taiwan, but New Zealand and Australia and Tasmania. And then within couple of days, they had a 8.3 in south of New Zealand, and then came the 9.1 in the Indian Ocean, with the big tsunami, on the very day of the fool moon.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/on-air/cavuto/transcript/major-earthquake-north-america-imminent

Well that's creepy.. to hear a geologist sounding like an internet kook, talking about the earth's magnetic field and beaching whales and fish deaths (he didn't mention the bird deaths) as indicative of an imminent quake.

But now that I read this, I recall there were beachings a few days before the NZ quake. And weird mass fish deaths have been in the news.

So if this clockwise pattern continues, first Chile then NZ then Japan.. US west coast appears to be next.

[Timo]

A country song a few decades back, sung by some guy who'd just lost his girlfriend (as so many country and blues songs go) proclaimed that he'd be waiting for her "on the coast of Colorado when California's gone."

Dammit! That song just became an ear worm, and i can't get rid of it, and i hate country music!

[vision-master]

Even kenny chesney?

[Pablo2079]

There have been some odd fish deaths near Vancouver Island over the past month and a half or so. There are some theories, but they've been happening on the West and East coast of the island.... they haven't seen this before.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/vancouver_island_central/nanaimonewsbulletin/news/114661719.html#

[PrestonSturges]

So if this clockwise pattern continues, first Chile then NZ then Japan.. US west coast appears to be next.

And the US has had volcanic eruption in Alaska and Hawaii, although those are not rare.

How's Yellowstone doing?

[rockdoc123]

some clarifications

the geologist in question did work for the USGS when they predicted the World Series earthquake, but their prediction had nothing whatsoever to do with EM fields. It was all based on a series of smaller earthquakes that they saw as precursors to a larger one. Note that the USGS has been wrong more times than right in terms of predicting earthquakes.

there is a description here http://www.ess.washington.edu/SEIS/PNSN/INFO_GENERAL/eq_prediction.html
about earthquake prediction in general and specifically about the World Series earthquake.

Earthquake prediction is a popular pastime for psychics and pseudo-scientists, and extravagant claims of past success are common. Predictions claimed as "successes" may rely on a restatement of well-understood long-term geologic earthquake hazards, or be so broad and vague that they are fulfilled by typical background seismic activity. Neither tidal forces nor unusual animal behavior have been useful for predicting earthquakes. If an unscientific prediction is made, scientists can not state that the predicted earthquake will not occur, because an event could possibly occur by chance on the predicted date, though there is no reason to think that the predicted date is more likely than any other day. Scientific earthquake predictions should state where, when, how big, and how probable the predicted event is, and why the prediction is made. The National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council reviews such predictions, but no generally useful method of predicting earthquakes has yet been found.
It may never be possible to predict the exact time when a damaging earthquake will occur, because when enough strain has built up, a fault may become inherently unstable, and any small background earthquake may or may not continue rupturing and turn into a large earthquake. While it may eventually be possible to accurately diagnose the strain state of faults, the precise timing of large events may continue to elude us. In the Pacific Northwest, earthquake hazards are well known and future earthquake damage can be greatly reduced by identifying and improving or removing our most vulnerable and dangerous structures.

with regards to EM even though it is still the subject of research there are a number of scientists who think it is a waste of time simply because the number of factors that influence whether a particular fault will move a certain amount at any given time is largely a stochastic problem and not a determinsitic one. It lends itself to statements about the probability of a major earthquake occuring in a certain time period but nothing more.

[gnm]

Hey Rocdoc, I was reading up on historical major earthquakes in Japan and read that there was a pattern that typically went (Major quake/tsunami NE), (Major quake/tsunami SE), followed by eruptions of Mt Fuji in many cases. Something about the nature of this fault system tending to do that. Any truth to that? If so then they may be in for more misery over the next couple years.

-G

[yeahbut]

But now that I read this, I recall there were beachings a few days before the NZ quake.

Hi Six, to give that a little perspective, those were pilot whales- mass strandings of pilot whales are not at all unusual in NZ and happen without accompanying earthquakes on a fairly regular basis...I have always found their name particularly ironic

There is quite a bit of discussion in NZ at the moment re the moon and it's influence, of lack of it, on seismic activity. A guy who has a fairly high profile weather forecasting system based on lunar cycles has made predictions of another large earthquake for Christchurch on the 20th which has scared a lot of people. A geology student who took time out from his phd to look into it could find no statistical correlation.

The most interesting take on recent seismic activity around the world that I have heard was an interview on the telly here the other day with a seismologist who has been studying earthquake 'clusters'. He believes that there is enough evidence to support the idea that very large earthquakes can trigger other quakes globally, and he thinks that while the current level of quakes still falls within the regular parameters, it is at the high end. He thinks this may be due to the truly massive 9.3 Indian ocean earthquake having brought other quakes 'forward in time'- that is to say, they were faults that were already loading up, but without the nudge from that massive quake, might not have triggered for another few years.

[Timo]

Someone please verify this for me. This came from my wife, who is a scientist, so my gut (and her fist) tells me to trust her, but this just seems absolutely incredible. She told me that the moon raises the tectonic plates a full 50 feet as it passes over each one. The reason that nobody notices is that this increase is so slow that it doesn't even measuer on a richter scale. This is hard for me to believe, and i know that by even asking for verification, i'm risking the trust i've placed in my wife for all of eternity. However, there was no mention of seismic activity in our wedding vows, so this might be a convenient exception to the trust rule, but still.......... Any geologists out there want to ruin 20 years of wedded bliss for me?

[Ferretlover]

another reputation on the line; see YouTube

[cualcrees]

Well... I guess will see soon enough if he was right!

[rockdoc123]

OK
I will go on the record as saying he is full of crap. I guess we will see.
As I said previously the real experts in this (the research scientists at the various universities and certain USGS offices) have said they cannot predict without putting a huge amount of uncertainty around their predictions.

[Timo]

OK
I will go on the record as saying he is full of crap. I guess we will see.
As I said previously the real experts in this (the research scientists at the various universities and certain USGS offices) have said they cannot predict without putting a huge amount of uncertainty around their predictions.

rocdoc, are you "certain" he's full of crap, or is that just a prediction? How can you be sure without a huge amount uncertainty?

No! I've not had any green beer today.

Yet.

[rockdoc123]

rocdoc, are you "certain" he's full of crap, or is that just a prediction? How can you be sure without a huge amount uncertainty?

No! I've not had any green beer today

the reason is that there is currently no proven means of predicting the occurrence of earth quakes. The number of factors involved means this is not a deterministic problem but rather a probablistic one with huge uncertainties. Using EM or other factors as predictive tools has failed more often than it has succeeded, in fact there are very, very few examples where earthquakes have been predicted correctly. I think I mentioned on another thread the World Series quake that was actually predicted by the USGS on the basis of increased swarms of preshocks. More often than not they have been wrong with such predictions which isn't surprising given the uncertainty.

From a purely scientific reason why I think this makes no sense is yes we are talking Pacific plate at a view from 100,000 feet but the details along the plate boundary are completely different. The Japan quakes actually happened at the confluence of three plate boundaries whereas where he is predicting an earthquake it is two plates. The Japan situation is complicated by extensional, transtensional and transpressive forces acting in a small region whereas California is completly transpressive. The overlying plate geology is also completely different with California being the junction of continental to transitional crust and oceanic crust and the Japan situation being mainly oceanic crust on oceanic crust or transitional crust. So the variables that are important are all very different. As well the Pacific Plate is separated right down the middle by the mid-ocean ridge, a zone of volcanic upwelling where oceanic crust is created. It is a natural place for stresses to be separated.

All of that being said, due to the large uncertainties you can't rule out the possibility of an earthquake happening in California. But it could be for completely unrelated reasons and the timing just a coincidence. This is the case of a broken clock being correct at least twice a day.

Again lets wait and see.

[Timo]

Again lets wait and see.

So, essentially, if someone predicts something often enough, chances are that eventually it will actually happen.

OK. Here goes: I predict that right wing Republicnuts will eventually see the light of day and choose to live in reality. See? If i predict that often enough, someday, it will happen.

[crude_intentions]

So he predicted an earthquake in 1989? So whats his track record been between then and now?

[rockdoc123]

I may be wrong here but I believe he (or someone else) is claiming that he alone predicted the earthquake using EM early warning. The USGS claims differently that that particular earthquake was predicted due to ever increasing preshock small earthquakes which they saw as developing into a pattern. EM was not involved according to them. Unfortunately the preshock thing hasn't worked very often and the USGS now states there is currently no way of predicting earthquakes.
I posted this all on another thread here the other day.

[Graeme]

The mechanism and timing of earthquakes is now better understood as a result of this research:

The role of crustal quartz in controlling Cordilleran deformation

Large-scale deformation of continents remains poorly understood more than 40 years after the plate tectonic revolution1. Rock flow strength and mass density variations both contribute to stress, so both are certain to be important, but these depend (somewhat nebulously) on rock type, temperature and whether or not unbound water is present2. Hence, it is unclear precisely how Earth material properties translate to continental deformation zones ranging from tens to thousands of kilometres in width, why deforming zones are sometimes interspersed with non-deforming blocks and why large earthquakes occasionally rupture in otherwise stable continental interiors. An important clue comes from observations that mountain belts and rift zones cyclically form at the same locations despite separation across vast gulfs of time3 (dubbed the Wilson tectonic cycle), accompanied by inversion of extensional basins4 and reactivation of faults and other structures formed in previous deformation events5. Here we show that the abundance of crustal quartz, the weakest mineral in continental rocks2, may strongly condition continental temperature and deformation. We use EarthScope seismic receiver functions6, gravity and surface heat flow measurements7 to estimate thickness and seismic velocity ratio, vP/vS, of continental crust in the western United States. The ratio vP/vS is relatively insensitive to temperature but very sensitive to quartz abundance8, 9. Our results demonstrate a surprising correlation of low crustal vP/vS with both higher lithospheric temperature and deformation of the Cordillera, the mountainous region of the western United States. The most plausible explanation for the relationship to temperature is a robust dynamical feedback, in which ductile strain first localizes in relatively weak, quartz-rich crust, and then initiates processes that promote advective warming, hydration and further weakening. The feedback mechanism proposed here would not only explain stationarity and spatial distributions of deformation, but also lend insight into the timing and distribution of thermal uplift10 and observations of deep-derived fluids in springs11.

nature

[eXpat]

so? I was expecting for this to happen:




I want my money back!