So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

[OilFinder2]

The data is for the week of February 5, when all of America was covered in a blizzard. Odd how that is not mentioned.

Indeed that could be true. We'll see next week how much of an effect it had. On the other hand, the storm hit most areas early in the week, which might have given people time to go to the local unemployment office and file their claims later in the week after some of the snow had been cleared, so maybe the effect was minimal. But, maybe not.

Also, you can file for unemployment insurance online in most (all?) states these days, so if anyone got snowed in they could just file from their home computer if they wanted or needed to. For example, here is Illinois' website which lets you file a claim online. Illinois was badly affected by the storm, so anyone who was going to file a claim when the storm hit could just do it online:
http://www.ides.state.il.us/individual/online_claim.asp

[jdmartin]

A lot of these statistics are just bullshit, plain and simple. The "first time filers" for example is a complete crock of crap. Companies in the US have reached a point of no return, where any further layoffs mean either closing up shop or reduced production. Anyone still left standing has already cut as far as they can without shutting the doors. Thus, most unemployed people have been unemployed forever and either can't file anymore or have filed before. That's the same reason that overall unemployment numbers are down - a lot of people have simply dropped out of the market completely and are now magically not considered unemployed anymore.

It's really nothing more than the federal government's attempt to put a good spin on things, as they've been doing for at least the last 25 years.

[Hawkcreek]

A lot of these statistics are just bullshit, plain and simple. The "first time filers" for example is a complete crock of crap. Companies in the US have reached a point of no return, where any further layoffs mean either closing up shop or reduced production. Anyone still left standing has already cut as far as they can without shutting the doors. Thus, most unemployed people have been unemployed forever and either can't file anymore or have filed before. That's the same reason that overall unemployment numbers are down - a lot of people have simply dropped out of the market completely and are now magically not considered unemployed anymore.

It's really nothing more than the federal government's attempt to put a good spin on things, as they've been doing for at least the last 25 years.

Amen to the above - I don't understand why there is so much discussion over the numbers, since it is obvious that they are bogus.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Jobless Claims Surge Above 400K Barrier, Jumping 25,000 to 410,000

Feb 17 (Reuters) - New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, ... increasing 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 410,000, the Labor Department said, partially reversing the prior weeks hefty decline.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 400,000. The previous weeks figure was revised slightly up to 385,000, from the previously reported 383,000.

The claims data covers the survey period for part of the governments employment report for February. But the correlation between claims and nonfarm payrolls has weakened somewhat. Claims 543711606

A Labor Department official said there was nothing unusual in the state-level data, adding that two states had been estimated.

The four-week moving average of unemployment claims -- a better measure of underlying trends - rose 1,750 to 417,750 last week.

The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid edged up 1,000 to 3.91 million in the week ended Feb. 5.

Economists had expected so-called continuing claims to rise to 3.90 million from a previously reported 3.89 million.

The number of people on emergency unemployment benefits dropped 127,386 to 3.63 million in the week ended Jan. 29, the latest week for which data is available.

Reuters

[Lore]

As I've said many a time here, the unemployment situation during this recession is a result of a long term structural change in jobs. We are not about to get back to the levels of employment, any time soon, that we once enjoyed.

Jobs that were shed are not likely to come back as employers have managed to increase profitability by keeping payrolls low through automation and global outsourcing. This is the facts that neither government or business leaders want to talk about.

[OilFinder2]

Feb 17 (Reuters) - New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, ... increasing 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 410,000, the Labor Department said, partially reversing the prior weeks hefty decline.

That "more than expected" depends on who was doing the surveying, of course. According to Bloomberg it hit the concensus right on the nose.

Looks like Armageddon was right, and last week's numbers were affected by the storms.

But the fact that these upward spikes are spiking up to 400K and 410K instead of 450K and 500K as it did last year is a sign of improvement.

[OilFinder2]

I'm close to rescinding my "sideways" prediction for initial jobless claims and making a new prediction that we'll start to see a downward trend.

And BTW, I don't even need to make a new "prediction" about initial jobless claims anymore -- in spite of the recent choppiness, it's far enough into the trend now to say that the downward trend since Septemer or thereabouts is a fact.

[jdmartin]

That's bullshit. See my post above. The numbers are completely cooked. Once you become ineligible for unemployment, you magically became employed. Some of those people got jobs. Many, many more did not and are subsisting by mooching off their parents or working a part time job and mooching off their parents.

Lore has it right - there will be no improvement in employment back to where we are, EVER.

[OilFinder2]

That's bullshit. See my post above. The numbers are completely cooked. Once you become ineligible for unemployment, you magically became employed.

???

Not sure what you're referring to, but if you're referring to the unemployment rate, the calculation of the unemployment rate has absolutely nothing to do with whether you're receiving unemployment benefits or not.

In fact, when the Labor Department issues its weekly unemployment claims report, they always state the "insured unemployment rate." This is the percentage of the workforce receiving unemployment benefits, and it is always significantly smaller than the official unemployment rate issued by the BLS.

Take, for example, this last week's release:

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.1 percent for the week ending Feb. 5, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.1 percent.

Compare that to the latest U3 rate of 9% (or the U6 rate, or whichever you prefer). The official unemployment rate(s) are based on a household survey which asks you if you're working, and if you aren't, if you've been actively looking for work recently. They don't even ask you if you're receiving benefits or not.

[OilFinder2]

That's 2 of the last 3 weeks we've gotten below 400K. And last week was clear over most of the country, so there aren't any weather excuses for this.

Jobless Claims Plunge Below 400K Barrier, Falling 22,000 to 391,000. Still awaiting that double-dip!

In the week ending Feb. 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 391,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 413,000. The 4-week moving average was 402,000, a decrease of 16,500 from the previous week's revised average of 418,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending Feb. 12, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.1 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb.12 was 3,790,000, a decrease of 145,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,935,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,892,750, a decrease of 54,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,947,500.

[Lore]

These numbers will continue to bounce around from week to week. The fact remains that we lost 8 million jobs during the recession, so far, only 1.2 million have returned. During the last recession at this point over half the jobs recovered.

In the jobs that have come back, most are in the low wage earner area. Of the number in the overall recovery figure, high paid jobs, have made less then a 14% recovery. Add the current beating to lower wages even farther among the middle class worker and expect any recovery to look worse then pre recession levels.

We are undergoing a structural change in the job market that gross numbers don’t reveal.

[Armageddon]

How did that new housing report look today, Oily ? Not too good.

[OilFinder2]

How did that new housing report look today, Oily ? Not too good.

Wrong thread but . . . People are mopping up those foreclosures instead of buying new homes. Can you blame them? In fact, I don't even *want* much new housing to be built until most of the foreclosures are cleared off the market. It would be much better for the real estate industry in the long run.

[OilFinder2]

Hello??? Double-Dip WHERE ARE YOU?!?!? It's Nowhere in Sight!! Jobless Claims Tumble Once Again, Now Down to 368,000!, a 3-Year Low.

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Feb. 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 368,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average was 388,500, a decrease of 12,750 from the previous week's revised average of 401,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending Feb. 19, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate of 3.1 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb.19 was 3,774,000, a decrease of 59,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,833,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,863,750, a decrease of 40,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,904,250.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 351,076 in the week ending Feb. 26, a decrease of 30,029 from the previous week. There were 471,256 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.4 percent during the week ending Feb. 19, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,325,502, a decrease of 262,110 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.3 percent and the volume was 5,597,500.


The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Feb 12 was 9,236,041.

linky winky[/quote]

[kmann]

This is big! A drop to the mid 300k level, if continued, will mean a big jump in employment for this month.
A structural shift is a given in a recession this deep. It's going to be out of building and construction and into health care, and some into information technologies. I would hope out of government too, but that's not the trend. Update your skills accordingly!

[Daniel_Plainview]

OMG! Jobless Claims Surge by 26,000 (adjusted) and 52,000 (unadjusted)

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending March 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 397,000, an increase of 26,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 371,000. The 4-week moving average was 392,250, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average of 389,250. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending Feb. 26, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb.26 was 3,771,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,791,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,833,250, a decrease of 34,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,868,000.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 406,096 in the week ending March 5, an increase of 52,147 from the previous week. There were 459,523 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.



The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent during the week ending Feb. 26, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,442,438, an increase of 97,576 from the preceding week. ... The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Feb 19 was 8,772,818.



... States reported 3,600,522 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Feb. 19, a decrease of 52,745 from the prior week. There were 5,527,451 claimants in the comparable week in 2010. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.

BLS

[Armageddon]

I agree with Denninger:

The drop in extended benefits may be roll-offs. The regular claims look good, but we have to be careful here, because we're getting to the point now, with the length of this turndown, where people may simply not qualify even though they were laid off.

In order to qualify for a new claim you have to have a fairly significant work history and it must be unbroken. If you ran out of benefits, got a job and then got laid off again within a reasonably-short period of time it's entirely possible (and indeed likely) that you would be denied a new initial claim.

[OilFinder2]

A scant 2 months ago, Daniel would have been discouraged at a print of 397K. His case has now gotten so poor that he finds himself getting excited at a print of 397K. His increasing desperation is evident in the fact that, in addition to his already obnoxious posts, he's now adding not one, but two photos. He reminds one of some spoiled brat who has to scream and shout to get attention. The more desperate he becomes, the louder he has to scream.

[Lore]

I agree with Denninger:

The drop in extended benefits may be roll-offs. The regular claims look good, but we have to be careful here, because we're getting to the point now, with the length of this turndown, where people may simply not qualify even though they were laid off.

In order to qualify for a new claim you have to have a fairly significant work history and it must be unbroken. If you ran out of benefits, got a job and then got laid off again within a reasonably-short period of time it's entirely possible (and indeed likely) that you would be denied a new initial claim.

Or the beginning of the ugly head of serial unemployment.

[OilFinder2]

Aw shucks, doomer hopes dashed again, inital claims fall to 385K

March 17, 2011, 8:48 a.m. EDT
Initial jobless claims drop to 385,000 last week: U.S.
By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — New applications for state jobless benefits fell by 16,000 last week to 385,000, keeping initial claims at a level usually associated with a modest pace of hiring, U.S. data showed Thursday.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected first-time claims to fall to a seasonally adjusted 389,000 in the week ended March 12. The prior week’s claims were revised up to 401,000, according to the Labor Department.

Over the past four weeks claims have averaged 386,250, the lowest level seen since July 2008. The four-week average is considered more accurate barometer of employment trends because it lessens week-to-week volatility in the data.

[...]

Below 400K 4 of the past 6 weeks. Poor doomers, they must be getting really frustrated.