If Goldman’s hypothesis is correct, “this would imply that OPEC spare capacity could actually have dropped below 2 million b/d already.” This is a level last seen in 2008, when the oil price hit $147 a barrel.
dolanbaker wrote:Talk about putting a bat up the nightdress of the business world!
And thats before they realise that the "extra" oil is the heavy sour stuff.
mos6507 wrote:Goldman is the architect of the apocalypse--unless they say something that backs up the doomer narrative. Then suddenly they are the good guys?
Sorry, doesn't compute.
The investment community should NOT be trusted when commenting on energy. They obviously think there is money to be made in pumping up energy stocks. That's what I get when I read between the lines of Seeking Alpha and all the other peak oil chatter in investment circles. It's suiting their agenda to overstate peak oil.
mos6507 wrote:Goldman is the architect of the apocalypse--unless they say something that backs up the doomer narrative. Then suddenly they are the good guys?
Sorry, doesn't compute.
The investment community should NOT be trusted when commenting on energy. They obviously think there is money to be made in pumping up energy stocks. That's what I get when I read between the lines of Seeking Alpha and all the other peak oil chatter in investment circles. It's suiting their agenda to overstate peak oil.
Loki wrote:Hmmmm, which pathological liar to believe?
americandream wrote:Loki wrote:Hmmmm, which pathological liar to believe?
Generally when they start acting contrary to their interests, they are on the scout for a new game. I reckon the days of risk are drawing to a close (much earleir that I had anticipated) and these guys are trying to get into prudence. If what they're saying is correct, expect a massive reverse flow of Western capital out of risk zones such as China and back to the West. Then expect to see GS positioning itself as protector of flight capital. At that point, I would say that the global project will just about be done and workers worldwide can expect to be thrown to the wolves. The end of the nation state will be upon us (services wise) as everything to do with civilised standards are scrapped and penny pinching becomes the norm.
Oil to climb on growing demand, reduced spare capacity: Goldman
Platts / July 7, 2011
Global banking and securities firm Goldman Sachs said Thursday it was expecting considerable oil price upside in the next 6-12 months as rising demand fueled by improved global economic growth cut into OPEC spare capacity.
"With world economic growth continuing to drive oil demand growth well in excess of non-OPEC production growth, the oil market continues to draw on inventories and OPEC spare capacity in order to balance," Goldman Sachs said in its Commodity Watch report.
"In our view, it is only a matter of time before inventories and OPEC spare capacity become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to restrain demand, keeping it in line with available supply."
As such, Goldman Sachs has now forecast a WTI crude price of $111.00/b in three months, $115.00/b in six months and $126.50/b in 12 months, this compares with $108.00/b, $114.50/b and $126.50/b forecasts from its May 24 Commodity Watch report.
For Brent crude, Goldman Sachs said its three, six and 12-month forecasts were now to $117.00/b, $120.00/b and $130.00/b. In its May 24 report Goldman had forecast prices of $115.00/b, $120.00/b and $130.00/b, respectively. ...
... "We expect this export demand to continue this summer, likely supported by diesel-fired electricity generation demand in China and Japan."
Oh for the good old days, when the Texas Railroad Commission set the prices.peeker01 wrote:the lure of big bucks is just too much of a carrot for these greedy bastards.
...
where does supply and demand enter into the equation?
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