THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merged)

[davep]

video
And here's George's comments

[deMolay]

Gee this guy is saying Peak Oil every other sentence. Chief Brain at the IEA. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/scien ... 66585.html

[pup55]

Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris

He has been around for awhile. I am a lot more interested in the ones who "flip", like CERA recently did.... deny it for a long time and then go to the other side.... I suppose there are a few who do the opposite, peakers who decide, after some review of the data, that there is a lot of oil around.....

[deMolay]

I wonder how many of these suits read PO everyday?

[meemoe_uk]

Has this been covered on this forum already? where?

http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/full.pdf
page 57
87.3mpd average for year
88.2mpd average for 4th quarter

And looking at the analysis, it would have still set them without the inclusion of NGLs and biofuels.
Another year, another fail for the 'peakoil is now' gang.

But, this doesn't mean anything to a peaker.
Don't wobble in your beliefs about panic and hype about an imminent oil shortage crisis.
Let JD explain
Now you can have all the fun of hype and scare you had last year ( and year before that, and the decades before that..etc) all over again.

Because now.....
PEAK OIL WAS IN 2010!!!!
And this isn't like all the other times we think peak has happened. This time we really know for sure. There is absolutely no way conventional supply can top 2010. And this is time, it's not like dozens of other years that there's been absolutely no way that supply can go up. Oh no, THIS...IS...IT!!!

Have fun, like this lot...

yeah right, lol

[vision-master]

All time high is a good thing?

This means demand is still increasing.

What happens when demand overtakes supply?

[Pops]

Yea, the avg price looks like it was higher than all but '08 too (aside from the Iranian peak that is), funny how that worked out.

I guess it's just not gonna sink in that peak oil is about the end of cheap energy.

Shrug.

[OilFinder2]

But . . . but . . . but . . . I thought we were supposed to be past peak???

I have just one thing to say: AHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!

What happens when demand overtakes supply?

This was supposed to be already happening by now.

[eXpat]

Another year, another fail for the 'peakoil is now' gang.

But, this doesn't mean anything to a peaker.
Don't wobble in your beliefs about panic and hype about an imminent oil shortage crisis.

Well, well, i see that you are not only a climate change troll, you are a PO troll as well, there you are, is all yours...

[sparky]

.
spoting the peak is good fun and porndoomsters have a nose for rubbing things into
that doesn't invalidate the basic premice of maximum extraction point being imminent
with dire consequences for pretty much everybody

[TonyPrep]

As I understand it, 2005 is still, just, the year of highest crude oil production. The 2010 number is about all liquids which includes stuff like biofuels which were produced from almost an equivalent amount of real oil, so it's double counting really.

According to the latest EIA short term energy outlook, the last 7 months of last year saw global stock draws - i.e. production wasn't enough to keep up with demand during that time, which was the back end of a recession for crying out loud. The STEO has last month showing a stock build but then it's initial estimate for many of the now stock draw months was a stock draw.

With all this and the price per barrel of most grades being over $100, I think OilFinder's celebrations are rather odd.

[Pops]

With all this and the price per barrel of most grades being over $100, I think OilFinder's celebrations are rather odd.

Yeah, from the first line of the link:

Marker crudes approached $100/bbl in early January, prompting concerns over the impact of high prices on the global economic recovery

Cheering for whatever political party/sports team/favorite pundit/or in this case, BAU, outweighs events or outcomes in the real world.

It is strange.

[Xenophobe]

Has this been covered on this forum already? where?

http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/full.pdf
page 57
87.3mpd average for year
88.2mpd average for 4th quarter

I said it before, and I'll say it again (being proven right in real time is just SO nice), HOLY COW BATMAN! ANOTHER PEAK!

[mos6507]

Cheering for whatever political party/sports team/favorite pundit/or in this case, BAU, outweighs events or outcomes in the real world.

It is strange.

You have a way of putting it so succinctly.

[meemoe_uk]

As I understand it, 2005 is still, just, the year of highest crude oil production. The 2010 number is about all liquids which includes stuff like biofuels which were produced from almost an equivalent amount of real oil, so it's double counting really.

http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/17jan06full.pdf
page 49
2005 : total supply avg = 84.1mbpd of which 4.74mbpd was NGL leaving 79.36mbpd conventional crude
2010 : total supply avg = 87.3mbpd of which 7.10mbpd was NGL+bio leaving 80.20mbpd conventional crude
therefore 2010 beats 2005 for conventional supply.
latter numbers from most recent IEA report.

>With all this and the price per barrel of most grades being over $100. I think OilFinder's celebrations are rather odd.
Oil is extremely cheap at $100. Doesn't any peaker even listen to their own oracles? Mat Simmons said a good economically sensible price for a barrel of oil was $4000.
At $100 a barrel of oil, a typical car combustion engine can do the work of around 700 men for just $4.50 an hour. Therefore it's still good economics to use oil.

>Well, well, i see that you are not only a climate change troll, you are a PO troll as well,
It is not my fault the IEA report states higher numbers for 2010 than 2005. Nor my fault if oil is still extremely cheap at only $100 a barrel. Matt Simmons said $100 per barrel was a bargain. I agree.

[Pops]

Oil is extremely cheap at $100.

I agree.*

Unfortunately, the economies of the world and the US in particular were not designed around reasonably priced oil but around even cheaper oil - like $20/bbl (except for that bit between '75. and '85.)


* I'd pay $25 a gallon to run my chainsaw and walk to get it to boot!

[TonyPrep]

meemoe-uk,

The EIA publishes estimates for crude and lease condensate, no need to try and back-calculate it yourself. Unfortunately, they are always several months behind, so we won't know their full 2010 estimate until next month, I think. However, the 10 month average for 2010 is still behind the 2008 average, which is behind the 2005 average of daily production. The 2005 figure is 73.718 million barrels per day.

They have changed their format for delivering this information, and haven't yet posted February's update, which is a bit lax of them.

Actually, a couple of months ago, I expected the 2010 average to just pip the 2005 average but now I'm not so sure. However, at least the crude oil figure doesn't double count anything.

[Adelaidewonderer]

2005 : total supply avg = 84.1mbpd of which 4.74mbpd was NGL leaving 79.36mbpd conventional crude
2010 : total supply avg = 87.3mbpd of which 7.10mbpd was NGL+bio leaving 80.20mbpd conventional crude

Well its good to see that a 4% increase in supply, over the 5 year period, only caused a 100% increase in the price of crude over the 5 year period. All someone needs to explain to me , is tell me why i am paying 100% more for my oil, when my income only increased by 20% in the 5 year period. Gee, if my expenditure on petrol has to double every 5 years, i will be using 80% of my income to get to work in 20 years time. But i guess it doesnt matter if i can still buy the petrol.

[meemoe_uk]

>The EIA publishes estimates for crude and lease condensate, no need to try and back-calculate it yourself.
Well it was the IEA ( International Energy Agency ) figures I was
using, not the EIA ( Energy Information Administration ) figures.

Maybe when the EIA release a report we can have another thread, " EIA : world sets all time high oil supply record in 2010 ".
They would make a nice pair of threads at the top of this forum board. i.e. it would send a good hard message out to the 'peak oil crisis is now' gang. Don't you think?

>tell me why i am paying 100% more for my oil
Because the industry is in a state of upheaval as the anglo american majors move into the middle east. This upheaval has been going on since 2001, it is nearly over. I estimate by 2014-15 things will settle down and the price of oil will drop substancially and stay down.

[Adelaidewonderer]

>[i]>tell me why i am paying 100% more for my oil
Because the industry is in a state of upheaval as the anglo american majors move into the middle east. This upheaval has been going on since 2001, it is nearly over. I estimate by 2014-15 things will settle down and the price of oil will drop substancially and stay down.

Please do share how you have come to this conclusion.