THE Exxon Mobil Thread pt 2 (merged)

[Plantagenet]

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Exxon can't find more oil. The "Good old days are over" says an Exxon oil man.

Exxon can't find more oil

Obviously there are still wells to be drilled in offshore areas, small fields in the Bakken and similar onshore plays, as well as Brazil, Iraq, the Arctic, etc. But a giant company like Exxon needs giant oil plays to stay alive. Exxon is saying that it can't find any giant oil projects worth spending its money on anywhere in the world.

The time of the big private oil company is over.

[vtsnowedin]

Sooner or later this had to happen. Apparently it is sooner.

[Plantagenet]

8) Sooner or later this had to happen. Apparently it is sooner.

Yup. I'm just amazed at how soon it is all happening. Looks like that 2005 global oil production peak (i.e. peak oil) is hard and real.

The WSJ says Exxon is shifting into natural gas plays.

This has BIG implications for US energy policy, since Exxon is the largest American oil company.

It also has BIG implications for people who have stock portfolios with energy stocks. Exxon stock was down big today---probably due to the WSJ story about them I've linked to here. There has been a lot of debate as to whether the big oil companies will do great or will get wiped out as peak oil starts to bite. Personally, I don't own Exxon or other big energy companies----I think their growth potential is limited as oil supplies start to drop----I think the energy service companies will do better.

[Daniel_Plainview]

"The good old days are gone and not to be repeated," says Fadel Gheit, an analyst with Oppenheimer and Co. Bringing additional reserves from gas "is not going to give you the same punch" that oil would, he said.

Peak oil has arrived ...

8) Sooner or later this had to happen. Apparently it is sooner.

Yup. I'm just amazed at how soon it is all happening. Looks like that 2005 global oil production peak (i.e. peak oil) is hard and real.

Peak oil is upon us ...

[highlander]

That is because it is all locked up in ANWR. (well, 42 days worth or whatever)
There will be a loud cry to reduce taxes on oil companies, have gov'ts subsidize exploration and allow corporate profits to be massive, or else the world will come to an end.
govt's will submit, no oil will be found
there will be blood.

[Plantagenet]

Peak oil is upon us ...

If its all the same, I'd rather have that blonde upon me.

[Madpaddy]

She's dead but I suppose, whatever you're into.

[Plantagenet]

That is because it is all locked up in ANWR.....govt's will submit, no oil will be found there will be blood.

Don't worry---Obama will protect that frozen tundra from being ravished by the drills of those rascally evil oil companies!!!!

Who needs those good-paying jobs in the oil biz anyway. Aren't we all happier knowing that all that oil under the ground in ANWR is safe and sound and protected from being disturbed as long as Obama is president!!!!

[vtsnowedin]

8) Sooner or later this had to happen. Apparently it is sooner.

Yup. I'm just amazed at how soon it is all happening. Looks like that 2005 global oil production peak (i.e. peak oil) is hard and real.

The WSJ says Exxon is shifting into natural gas plays.

This has BIG implications for US energy policy, since Exxon is the largest American oil company.

It also has BIG implications for people who have stock portfolios with energy stocks. Exxon stock was down big today---probably due to the WSJ story about them I've linked to here. There has been a lot of debate as to whether the big oil companies will do great or will get wiped out as peak oil starts to bite. Personally, I don't own Exxon or other big energy companies----I think their growth potential is limited as oil supplies start to drop----I think the energy service companies will do better.

Got to love the instant stock price drop on a piece of hard reality. Why should this make Exxon worth less? The story plainly shows that the management is taking positive steps (ie. securing the rights to a lot of natural gas) to maintain and maximise profits well into the future. If they can't find real oil who can? Oil finder 2? I expect the last dividend check ever generated by a oil and gas company to be paid out to an Exxon stock holder. Wish I owned some.

[papa moose]

Hold the phones, push the rewind button, 1 + 1 =2?
Yesterday Exxon was going to save us all, i know it's true, OF2 even had a link!

Oil Company Admits Future Is Going To Be OK
by OilFinder2 » Tue Feb 15, 2011 9:53 am

LINK
“The estimates for how much oil there is in the world continue to increase,” according to William M Colton, Exxon Mobil’s vice president for corporate strategic planning. “There’s enough oil to supply the world’s needs as far as anyone can see.” Just as prices rose sharply and peak oil concerns re-emerged, huge deep water oil fields were found off the coasts of Brazil and Africa. Higher prices also stimulated “unconventional” oil production from massive Canadian oil sands projects, which now provide North America with more oil than Saudi Arabia. In 2009, the United States increased domestic oil production for the first time in decades. The longer “life horizon” and drop in natural gas prices make it a particularly attractive choice to power producers now, given its relatively low carbon emissions and flexibility as a generating fuel.

[...]
Happy motoring!

[Adelaidewonderer]

She's dead but I suppose, whatever you're into.

Give her a few million years at the right temperature and pressure, and someone will have a use for her again

So can someone please explain to me. I can invest my money in a company, that can no longer continue to make at an increasing rate, the very product that it exists for. But for all purposes I know that it will slowly die in size by a few percent each year over the next 30 years, as it has over the last few years, with a negative return of 3%.

Or I can put my money into the bank earning a positive return each year, with no risk.

[papa moose]

Adelaide,
Think of it this way:

VW stopped making Beetles a long time ago but they are still a very profitable company.

Hope that helps.

NB. i'm not recommending you buy Exxon shares

[Hawkcreek]

That is because it is all locked up in ANWR.....govt's will submit, no oil will be found there will be blood.

Don't worry---Obama will protect that frozen tundra from being ravished by the drills of those rascally evil oil companies!!!!

Who needs those good-paying jobs in the oil biz anyway. Aren't we all happier knowing that all that oil under the ground in ANWR is safe and sound and protected from being disturbed as long as Obama is president!!!!

Don't you find it strange that when both houses and the executive branch were totally locked by by conservatives (for 6 years under the worst of all presidents), that even then they didn't open ANWR to drilling. And now it is all Obama's fault?
The inconsistencies are starting to make you look bad. Maybe it is time to become a bit more logical about your anti liberal rants.

[PrestonSturges]

A friend of mine went to Case Western, and his dorm suite had a bathroom with a toilet stall and also a urinal. The toilet stall had a poster that was the cockpit panel of a 747 and the urinal had a picture very similar to this taped beside it:

[Adelaidewonderer]

Adelaide,
Think of it this way:

VW stopped making Beetles a long time ago but they are still a very profitable company.

Hope that helps.

NB. i'm not recommending you buy Exxon shares

But VW werent a beetle making company, they were, and still are, a car designing and making company.

They may one day go out and buy a motor cycle company (like exxon buying a gas company) as car sales drop, but if I had any sense , I would not put my money into VW because car making is dying and they are going to buy into motor cycle companies, I would just go and buy shares in the motor cycle company.

[mos6507]

Why can't we just "drill, baby, drill" like your woman, Palin wants?

Gee, you'd think maybe we "can't drill our way out of this". Now, who coined that phrase?



The horror!

[SeaGypsy]

AW before it gets to capacity or willingness to transition by the mega corps, the assumption is that the oil price will continue to rise not just in proportion to dwindling supplies but heavily disproportionately as ELM and international markets battle it out for what's left as the sucking sound gets louder.
A reasonable assumption.

[Graeme]

Exxon deal highlights oil reserves issue

ExxonMobil’s acquisition of XTO Energy last year accounted for 80 per cent of the reserves it added in 2010, highlighting the difficulty oil companies are having in finding new sources of crude.

The world’s largest private sector oil company by market capitalisation said its reserve base increased by 3.5bn to 24.8bn oil-equivalent barrels at the end of last year. XTO, a US independent focused on shale gas production, accounted for 2.8bn of the new reserves.

The additions enabled Exxon to replace 209 per cent of production.

Barclays Capital noted that excluding the XTO acquisition, Exxon’s reserve replacement ratio would have been only 45 per cent.

“We think the poor organic replacement ratio could reignite the question among some investors whether Exxon acquired XTO purely for reserves and production growth,’’ said Paul Cheng, an analyst covering Exxon at Barclays Capital.

FT

[vtsnowedin]

[So can someone please explain to me. I can invest my money in a company, that can no longer continue to make at an increasing rate, the very product that it exists for. But for all purposes I know that it will slowly die in size by a few percent each year over the next 30 years, as it has over the last few years, with a negative return of 3%.

Or I can put my money into the bank earning a positive return each year, with no risk.

Don't worry Exxon will make as much money selling the oil on the back half of the curve as they did on the front side if not several times more. They may move five percent less product each year but so will everybody else and they will set prices at cost plus an obscene profit on every barrel.

[SeaGypsy]

One aspect I have seen very little discussion on anywhere is the fact that exploration techniques for oil/ gas and coal have been rapidly accelerating over the last ten years. I'm not sure on percentages, but I know guys working on sonar mapping both undersea and arial, they are still busy but not nearly as busy as they were 2 years to a year ago. One undersea worker told me they are pretty much done with mapping claimable areas accesible with current technology and are now working on an assumption of quantum improvement in deepsea drilling capacity. Put this together with current ELM factors in the ME, Latin America and SE Asia, we will soon have serious supply issues. I give it 2 to 3 years at best.