US economic recovery is complete. pt 1 Archived

[ColossalContrarian]

OF2, people were doing their returns in hopes of getting MORE money back. The middle class isn't, I have no data to prove this point other than personal experience and seeing how many people are disappointed that they're receiving on average $2k less when their taxes last year.

An extra 2k$ means a lot to some people this time of year.

This hasn't hit home yet to the borgue (or however that word is spelled).

A lot of normal folks are being taxed more than they expexted.

[OilFinder2]

^
What does that have to do with anything? Thanks to the Obama SS withholding tax cut, I've been getting an extra $40 or so in take home pay this year. And thanks to my purchase of a new house last year I'll be getting a huge deduction on my taxes that I've never had before. So THERE! And I'm as middle class as anyone.

These blanket statements about "the middle class is blah blah blah" are pretty meaningless. You're characterizing a huge and economically diverse segment of the population who are in an unimaginably huge variety of situations. Some are doing fine, others not, some in-between. You make it sound like they're being all thrown out on the street because they're out of a job and can't find a new one, and all their houses are being foreclosed and yadda yadda yadda. Accentuate the negative and pretend the whole segment of the population is like that. Yeah, sure.

[papa moose]

Your Xeno friend could even change his name to VaselineFinder2.

+1

[papa moose]

If they can only fix these issues :

1) 23% unemployment
snip

Oh please.

#1 underemployment is not unemployment but lets pump those numbers!
snip

This is my favourite, i've seen you make similiar statements in other posts.
Unemployment is very narrowly defined for the explicit purpose of keeping the reportable numbers down.
Try telling someone without a job that they are not counted as "unemployed" this quarter because they did two hours of volunteer community work last week.

[Armageddon]

I'm self employed and haven't worked in 4 months. Where do I show up at ?

[Armageddon]

How many millions are living in their house and not making the mortgage payments ? Are they propping up the economy by buying shit instead of making the payments ? I guarantee they are.

[rangerone314]

As measured by GDP, the old thread(s) is/are now obsolete. We have now officially begun a new chapter in the US economic recovery/expansion.

Article

Recovery Ends. Expansion Begins.
By: MarketMinder Jan 29, 2011

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate of Q4 2010 GDP on Friday. The report showed accelerating growth—to 3.2% annualized real GDP growth in Q4, missing analysts' expectations of 3.5%. While some met the report with disappointment, there are also many strong points.

Of note and little mentioned, US real GDP eclipsed its pre-recession peak for the first time (nominal GDP already accomplished that feat), meaning the economic recovery is now over and expansion has officially begun. And headline GDP isn't the only metric that's expanding—personal spending and exports are both above prior highs

The acceleration from Q3 2010's 2.6% growth was largely driven by two contributors: Consumer spending and net exports. Consumer spending posted its largest quarterly increase (+4.4%) in four years, and net exports, a metric reducing GDP in Q2 and Q3 2010, reversed course and added to headline growth.

[...]

Cool, expansion has begun. Does that mean the rich will continue to expand their pocketbooks and Mercedes-Benz fleets while the middle class languishes with growing student loan debt in a vain attempt to job-retrain to compete because those same rich people exported jobs overseas?

What does it matter? Middle class share of the pie has been shrinking for years. (though have no fear instead of bread and circuses we have food stamps and reality tv)

[OilFinder2]

I'm self employed and haven't worked in 4 months. Where do I show up at ?

Perhaps one of these places.

LINK

Feb. 2, 2011, 9:05 a.m. EST
U.S. private-sector payrolls up 187,000: ADP
By Ruth Mantell, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Private-sector employment rose in January, and “strength was evident” in all major industries and sizes of business, according to Automatic Data Processing Inc.’s employment report released Wednesday.

The ADP report showed that private-sector employment rose 187,000, with the service-producing sector gaining 166,000 and the goods-producing sector increasing 21,000.

Employment rose 97,000 at small businesses, 79,000 at medium businesses and 11,000 at large businesses.

For December, ADP reported that private payrolls gained 247,000, compared with a prior estimate of 297,000.

“According to this measure, employment is accelerating and while January’s addition is less than December’s, we remain of the belief that employment gains will continue over the course of the year,” wrote Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist with Miller Tabak, in a research note.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

LINK

Report: January job cuts hit record low
South Florida Business Journal
Date: Wednesday, February 2, 2011, 10:31am EST

January job cuts hit a record low, with employers announcing plans to cut 38,519 jobs in the first month of the year, according to job placement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas.

While that’s up from December, when planned layoffs totaled 32,004, it marks the lowest January total since Challenger started keeping track in 1993.

Historically, January is the heaviest job-cut month, according to the report.

“What made this January figure so unusual is that it was so low,” CEO John A. Challenger said in a news release.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

Looks like Christmas isn't over after all!
LINK

Retailers Posting Surprisingly Strong Sales in January
Published: Thursday, 3 Feb 2011

Fears that winter weather would result in disappointing retail sales were overblown, as several retailers not only reported better-than-expected monthly sales reports, they also raised fourth-quarter earnings estimates.

On average, the retail sector reported same-store sales growth of 4.2 percent, according to Thomson Reuters. That far outpaced the average estimate of 2.7 percent, the group said.

Among the notable surprises were Limited, Zumiez, Wet Seal and Gap, which all reported sales at stores open at least 12 months were higher than analysts' estimates. Some of these companies also raised their forecasts for the latest fiscal quarter.

Limited the parent of Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works, reported January sales surged 24 percent, adding to its recent streak of strong results. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters were expected same-store sales to rise 6.7 percent.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

Bad news day for the doomers. Still awaiting that imminent double dip.

LINK

Service Sector Expands at Fastest Pace in 5 Years
Service sector expands in January at fastest pace since 2005 on higher orders, employment
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON February 3, 2011 (AP)

The U.S. service sector, which employs nearly 90 percent of the work force, grew in January at the fastest pace in five years, a sign that hiring could pick up soon.

The Institute for Supply Management, a private trade group, said Thursday its index of service sector activity rose to 59.4 last month, up from December's reading of 57.1. That's the 14th straight month of growth. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion.

The report follows a strong reading on Monday from the institute's manufacturing index for January, which rose to its highest level in nearly seven years.

The service index measures a broad sector of the economy, including retailers, hotels, health care companies and financial firms.

The institute's services employment index rose to 54.5, the highest since May 2006. The employment indexes in the manufacturing and service sector indexes both rose in January, a positive sign that the economy may soon generate more jobs.

[...]

And the factory orders report came out today also. The durable goods orders component from last week was revised upward.

LINK

Orders to U.S. Factories Unexpectedly Increased in December
By Bob Willis - Feb 3, 2011 7:00 AM PT

American factories unexpectedly received more orders in December, led by demand for capital equipment that was stronger than reported last week.

The 0.2 percent increase in bookings topped the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News which called for a 0.5 percent drop, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.9 percent, up from the 1.4 percent gain the government estimated in last week’s durable goods report.

Manufacturers like Caterpillar Inc. are reporting increased demand from U.S. consumers, businesses and customers in developing countries like Brazil and China. Tax breaks for business investment passed last month may provide further momentum to the factory rebound this year.

“We’re seeing a pretty solid rebound in demand for manufactured goods,” Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial in Detroit, said before the report. “That is exactly what we need to see at this point to make this a self- sustaining recovery.”

[...]

[Armageddon]

Corn up 103%
Cotton up 173%
Oats up 121%
Wheat up 105%
Soy up 62%
Copper up 68%
Rice up 74%
Lumber up 64%

Food prices just hit a record. Good luck with a recovery.

[MichaelWallace]

Corn up 103%
Cotton up 173%
Oats up 121%
Wheat up 105%
Soy up 62%
Copper up 68%
Rice up 74%
Lumber up 64%

Food prices just hit a record. Good luck with a recovery.

Since when? Yesterday? YTD? The end of the recession? The surrender of Japan? And is that real or nominal? These numbers are meaningless without more information.

[pstarr]

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) rose for the seventh consecutive month, averaging 231 points in January 2011, up 3.4 percent from December 2010 and the highest (in both real and nominal terms) since the index has been backtracked in 1990.

One month rise was 3.4%, which would translate to almost 40% yearly rise. I imagine this index measures a "basket" of prices collected from different regions, and so averages food production costs in inexpensive growing regions (plenty of water, healthy soils) with areas dependent on pumped irrigation and FF fertilizers. Like the MIDDLE EAST. This can't have anything to do with instability in certain desert nations? Or historically high of crude prices?

Nah. I must be just another hysterical doomer



FAO Food Price Index

[OilFinder2]

Copper up 68%
Lumber up 64%

Food prices just hit a record. Good luck with a recovery.

Are we eating metal and wood? Or maybe, just maybe, we're in a recovery?

[EnergyUnlimited]

Corn up 103%
Cotton up 173%
Oats up 121%
Wheat up 105%
Soy up 62%
Copper up 68%
Rice up 74%
Lumber up 64%

Food prices just hit a record. Good luck with a recovery.

and:

US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

There is also considerable growth of lalaland trolls.

[vision-master]

Corn up 103%
Cotton up 173%
Oats up 121%
Wheat up 105%
Soy up 62%
Copper up 68%
Rice up 74%
Lumber up 64%

Food prices just hit a record. Good luck with a recovery.

Since when? Yesterday? YTD? The end of the recession? The surrender of Japan? And is that real or nominal? These numbers are meaningless without more information.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I think folks pointing out that there are good AND bad economic datapoints is valid and completely healthy. And MichaelWallace is right to ask for the inflation figures in context (though I'm not sure why the sarcasm is needed, since to anyone who watches the markets, rampant commodity inflation IS blatantly obvious in the past year or so. Any fair minded market watcher (except the Fed, apparently) would admit to this data trend).

In fact, this is getting so strong this year (I just saw a rather broad list of commodities up around 15% to 25% YTD yesterday -- on Kudlow on CNBC, I think) - that now I am getting concerned about the possibility of meaningful inflation in the U.S. and Europe -- even with high unemployment / weak general economy. (I would have said that was EXTREMELY unlikely until now. Now, unless this trend settles down or reverses within the next quarter or so, general product increases seem more and more likely).

After all, you can't expect companies to sustain meaningful losses selling their products for long, if the input costs increase enough and they can't pass them along.

Why does a discussion of important things like this to folks trying to financially improve their families' situation have to be laced with accusations of people being trolls, with sarcasm, etc? People can look at complex situation and have valid/reasonable points of disagreement.

Jeez - this intolerant attitude is why the morons on Capitol Hill (both parties) can't quit fighting long enough to address serious problems the U.S. faces.

[kublikhan]

Looking at that graph, GDP bottomed out around 12800 billion, and rose up to around 13400 billion. That puts the GDP growth at around $600 billion. But the Fed/Treasury/etc. has injected many times that amount into the financial system/general economy. $600 billion does not even cover TARP, let alone the total value of the economic rescue packages, which Bloomberg tallied up to $12.8 trillion. Now not all of that money actually was spent, some of it was in the form of guarantees. Still, I have a hard time following this logic:

"We spent $13 trillion to prop up the economy. This caused a $.6 trillion blip up. Recession over, crisis solved." If you spent $13 trillion in bailouts and guarantees, and only got back $.6 trillion in the form of GDP output, that sounds like a rather pathetic "success" story to me.

According to a team at Bloomberg News, at one point last year the U.S. had lent, spent or guaranteed as much as $12.8 trillion to rescue the economy. The Bloomberg reporters have been following that money.

The true cost of the bank bailout

[ColossalContrarian]

^
What does that have to do with anything? Thanks to the Obama SS withholding tax cut, I've been getting an extra $40 or so in take home pay this year. And thanks to my purchase of a new house last year I'll be getting a huge deduction on my taxes that I've never had before. So THERE! And I'm as middle class as anyone.

These blanket statements about "the middle class is blah blah blah" are pretty meaningless. You're characterizing a huge and economically diverse segment of the population who are in an unimaginably huge variety of situations. Some are doing fine, others not, some in-between. You make it sound like they're being all thrown out on the street because they're out of a job and can't find a new one, and all their houses are being foreclosed and yadda yadda yadda. Accentuate the negative and pretend the whole segment of the population is like that. Yeah, sure.

You're right about the blanket statements, and it is wrong -for now... (Egypt comes to mind) Since PO.com seems to be your full time job you can quote me on this and post a picture of a football/soccer ball pounding my face if I'm wrong but I will go out on a limb and post a prediction that you will loose the money you get back form your new home compared to the loss of value you incur over the next three years in the home's value -note*** I have no idea of your location other than Cornicopia. This is why I believe the recovery ISN'T COMPLETE. Low interest rates and high unemployment. Stop about RECOVERY BEING COMPLETE until monetization ends!!! Otherwise your full BS and I respect a lot OF2 but get off the propaganda train with your minions and use your brain, not your bosses voice.