US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

[eXpat]

Over 1 million Americans seen losing homes in 2011
After a record 1 million home foreclosures in 2010, this year is likely to be even worse

NEW YORK (AP) -- The bleakest year in the foreclosure crisis has only just begun.

Lenders are poised to take back more homes this year than any other since the U.S. housing meltdown began in 2006. About 5 million borrowers are at least two months behind on their mortgages and industry experts say more people will miss payments because of job losses and also loans that exceed the value of the homes they are living in.

"2011 is going to be the peak," said Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at foreclosure tracker RealtyTrac Inc. The firm predicts 1.2 million homes will be repossessed this year.

The blistering pace of foreclosures this year will top 2010, when a record 1 million homes were lost, RealtyTrac said Thursday.

One in every 45 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing last year, a record 2.9 million of them. That's up 1.67 percent from 2009.

On Thursday, Freddie Mac reported that fixed mortgage rates dipped this week for the second straight time, extending a sliver of hope for some home owners. .
The average rate on the 30-year mortgage dropped to 4.71 percent from 4.77 percent the previous week. The rate on the 15-year loan, a popular refinance choice, slipped to 4.08 percent from 4.13 percent.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Over-1-million-Americans-seen-apf-1937862554.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

[Daniel_Plainview]

One in every 45 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing last year, a record 2.9 million of them. That's up 1.67 percent from 2009.

1 in 45 homes received a foreclosure filing in 2010? That can't be right. If that is correct ... HOLY CRAP, BATMAN!! And RealtyTrac is projecting three million foreclosures in 2011, with 1.2 million repossessions.

Here are the top 5 states for foreclosure filings in 2010:

Nevada (one in 11 homes received a foreclosure filing in 2010)
Arizona (one in 17 homes received a foreclosure filing in 2010)
Florida (one in 18 homes received a foreclosure filing in 2010)
California (one in 25 homes received a foreclosure filing in 2010)
Utah (one in 29 homes received a foreclosure filing in 2010)

The only way the US can afford more bank bailouts is by printing à la Zimbabwe! It's a good thing Helicopter Ben has those printing presses geared for overdrive ...

It's amazing how we can have a "recovery" when housing and employment are the worst since the Great Depression ...

[dolanbaker]

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/wi ... te-market/

Just about as bad as it can get!



Plus dozens of charts, showing the expected drop!

[OilFinder2]

Industrial production rises by most in 5 months

WASHINGTON (AP) — Industrial production rose in December by the largest amount in five months, providing the economy with solid momentum heading into the new year.

Activity at the nation's factories, mines and utilities increased 0.8 percent last month, the Federal Reserve said Friday. Industrial production was up in every month but one in 2010.

Overall industrial activity has risen 11 percent since hitting its recession low in June 2009. But it is still 6 percent below its peak reached in September 2007.

Factory production, the biggest slice of industrial output, rose 0.4 percent, the sixth straight monthly increase. Makers of computers and electronic products, clothing and leather, chemicals and other products were among the industries seeing gains. But auto production dipped.

"Manufacturing looks like it is doing its job and moving the economy ahead," said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo.

[...]

Retail sales rise for sixth month in December

WASHINGTON (AP) — Retail sales rose for a sixth consecutive month in December, with big gains in sales of autos and furniture. The increases lifted sales for the year by the largest amount in more than a decade.

Sales rose 0.6 percent last month to $381 billion, the Commerce Department said Friday. The gain boosted retail sales 13.5 percent above the recession low hit in December 2008.

The string of increases pushed sales for all of 2010 up 6.7 percent, the largest annual increase since 1999.

Separately, the Labor Department said consumer prices rose 0.5 percent in December, the largest increase in 18 months and a reflection of rising gas prices.

But outside of energy costs, there was little sign of widespread inflation. Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food, was up just 0.1 percent in December.

[...]

[eXpat]

What a Recovery!

Here's one way of looking at today's data:

"US Retail Sales Record Strongest Growth Since 1999" (Financial Times)

US retail sales surged last year at the strongest pace since 1999, as consumers shook off their fears of recession and started spending again amid tepid inflation.

Commerce department figures on Friday showed that total sales in 2010 were up 6.8 per cent from 2009, marking the sharpest such increase in more than a decade.

And here's another --

And another --

What can I say but..."What a recovery!"

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2011/01/what-a-recovery.html

[Cloud9]

"Folks, the idea that our economy is "recovering" is a red herring. Consumers are not doing any such thing, with the alleged "recovery" being eaten by price increases which are, to a large degree, caused by The Fed." Market Ticker

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=177313

[AirlinePilot]

"Dismal Holiday Season dooms US Economy"

The second reason to delay my own analysis of this critical component of the U.S. economy is that by mid-January, the real numbers come out and it becomes impossible for the U.S. propaganda-machine to continue to distort the truth. Indeed, the propagandists were previously forced to reluctantly acknowledge that 2008 and 2009 were the two worst U.S. holiday shopping seasons since records began to be kept on this subject. Thus, when I report that the 2010 U.S. shopping season was even worse than 2008 and 2009, it will hopefully cause those deluded by all the hype to pause and reconsider the facts.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10973788 ... inion.html

[OilFinder2]

And here's another --

And another --

What can I say but..."What a recovery!"
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2011/01/what-a-recovery.html

Humorously, both those graphs still show a recovery in progress.

As for AP's article by Jeff Nielson, Jeff Nielson posts a lot on Seeking Alpha. He's a Canadian doomer/gold bug/conspiracy theorist who makes Karl Denninger and "Tyler Durden" on Zerohedge look like mainstream cornucopian economists. I'd just as much take his analysis seriously as I would Hal Turner or anyone who spends a lot of time trying to convince everyone the moon landing was a hoax.

[AirlinePilot]

Attack his numbers and his argument not the man.

[Armageddon]

CPI And Retail Sales: Oops

This isn't good folks.


http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=177313

[OilFinder2]

Attack his numbers and his argument not the man.

OK, if you insist:

>>> Census Underestimates Record Retail Sales <<<

The US Census says advance numbers for retail sales are up 0.6% in December 2010 (pdf). Econintersect’s analysis says this is a severe understatement – the unadjusted data shows sales up over 8% YoY and at all time highs for this data series. The headlines:

[...]

Econintersect believes only the unadjusted data – which is not corrupted by the Great Recession data, can be used to evaluate retail sales. The unadjusted data graph says retail sales are the highest in history.



One month is not a trend. But retail sales have been trying to break out of the recession doldrums since September. December’s data was an explosion to the upside.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

CPI And Retail Sales: Oops

This isn't good folks.


http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=177313

Cloud9 already posted that just a few posts above.

[Armageddon]

CPI And Retail Sales: Oops

This isn't good folks.


http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=177313

Cloud9 already posted that just a few posts above.

My bad

[Daniel_Plainview]

Industrial production rises by most in 5 months

WASHINGTON (AP) — Industrial production rose in December by the largest amount in five months, providing the economy with solid momentum heading into the new year. Activity at the nation's factories, mines and utilities increased 0.8 percent last month, the Federal Reserve said Friday. Industrial production was up in every month but one in 2010.[...]

Retail sales rise for sixth month in December

WASHINGTON (AP) — Retail sales rose for a sixth consecutive month in December, with big gains in sales of autos and furniture. The increases lifted sales for the year by the largest amount in more than a decade.

[...]

Question to OF2: do you actually (and honestly) believe that the US is currently amid a genuine "recovery," or are you simply trolling like Xenoplebe?

[Cloud9]

There was an article on Huffington Post the other day about how gun sales were the one sector that had skyrocketed during the recession. That may be coming to an end. The Lakeland Gun Show here in Central Florida was dead yesterday. A few lookers but not many purchases. Talking to the dealers, they say people are spooked over gas prices and the general state of the economy.

The Obama effect is wearing off but the prices have not come down. A Romanian AK was going for $450. Australian Enfields were going for $250. Primers were thirty dollars a thousand.

The local pawn shops are full of guns. I expect prices to drop over the coming months unless something comes along to scare the public.

[eXpat]

With creative accountancy like this, how can the US go broke?
AT&T moves US$17 billion pension plan and benefit losses to the past

NEW YORK, N.Y. — Phone company AT&T Inc. on Thursday said it's changing its accounting in a way that effectively puts US$17 billion in losses that it would have to recognize in the future into the past.

It's a move that may be copied by other companies seeking to put the effect on their pension plans of the 2008 financial crash behind them, and out of future financial statements.

"AT&T is taking a step that no one's ever taken before, to my knowledge," said accounting expert Robert Willens.

Like other companies, AT&T has been checking once a year on the funding of its plans that cover pensions and other post-retirement benefits, like health care. When there's been a shortfall of funds compared to expected future payouts, it has spread out the resulting charges over a decade or more years, smoothing out the effect of fluctuating interest rates and values of plan assets.

Starting with the results for the latest quarter, the phone company will instead recognize charges due to changes in interest rates and asset values once a year, in the fourth quarter.

That will result in a pretax charge US$2.7 billion for last year's fourth quarter, for which AT&T is due to report results on Jan. 27.

AT&T is also adjusting results for previous quarters, as if the accounting change had been in place then. For example, the result for the fourth quarter of 2008 is now a loss of US$13.3 billion, or $2.25 per share, rather than the originally reported profit of $2.40 billion, or 41 cents per share.

Cumulatively, the effect reduces past earnings by $17 billion, an amount that would otherwise weigh on future results.

It also means that in future years, AT&T may have large charges or gains from its plans in its fourth-quarter earnings report, reflecting the actual performance of its plan.

Chief Financial Officer Rick Lindner said the new policy "provides a much simpler and easier way for investors to understand our benefit accounting and our benefit costs."

Manufacturer company Honeywell International Inc. announced in November that it was making a related accounting change, moving $7.5 billion in deferred losses from future periods to the past. However, it retained some "smoothing" of pension plan effects, which AT&T did not.

"There's an expectation that a lot of companies are going to do this, because they all have big losses from the market crash, and they all want to put it behind them," Willens said.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5gHEI63R21uiCbQNH_fVGXQbBKTPA?docId=5646102

Let´s play.Where is the debt?

[OilFinder2]

Question to OF2: do you actually (and honestly) believe that the US is currently amid a genuine "recovery," or are you simply trolling like Xenoplebe?

Absolutely yes, the US economy is in a genuine recovery. No doubt about it whatsoever.

[dolanbaker]

Question to OF2: do you actually (and honestly) believe that the US is currently amid a genuine "recovery," or are you simply trolling like Xenoplebe?

Absolutely yes, the US economy is in a genuine recovery. No doubt about it whatsoever.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlBiLNN1NhQ

After the "economic reset" we may have reason to be optomistic, until then, it's downhill all the way...

[KingM]

I see a lot of anecdotal evidence and gut feelings from the doomers and solid statistics on the other side to back up an ongoing expansion. I suppose it's possible that the statistics are fabricated for general consumption, but we're entering tinfoil hat territory there.

[dolanbaker]

I see a lot of anecdotal evidence and gut feelings from the doomers and solid statistics on the other side to back up an ongoing expansion. I suppose it's possible that the statistics are fabricated for general consumption, but we're entering tinfoil hat territory there.

I wouldn't exactly call this batch of charts anecdotal, or are you just being ironic.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/wi ... te-market/