Crude Oil Targeted - $150-200 per Barrel

[vision-master]

Oil Crisis Still Lies Ahead: $200 Oil and $6 a Gallon Gas by Late 2012

Now, on to a forecast that I would like to reconfirm in a market that impacts us all quite dramatically: Energy.

Despite the ongoing financial crisis, I expect to see at least $200 oil and $6 a gallon gas sometime in the not-too-distant future.

The first step will be to see the price of oil hold the $68.07 level by the end of this year, which should not be a problem.

Then, once oil closes above the $99.37 level — probably by the middle of next year, watch out: It will be your signal that oil will make new record highs within two years.

http://dailytradealert.com/2010/12/12/o ... late-2012/

Confessions of an Elitist part 1

Confessions of an Elitist part 2

[dolanbaker]

I have my doubts, every recent surge in oil prices has been followed by demand destruction which in turn reduces the "western" thirst for oil which results in a dropping in the price.

there will be many spikes in the near future, but most will result in a fall back to a price 1/3 higher than the previous low prices will "sawtooth" upwards. Each "tooth" resulting in a mini recession.

After 2014 though, all bets are off, that's when the supply of sub $80 oil is insufficient to run the world and $110 oil is the cheapest available.

[Revi]

The price of oil seems to fluctuate around $80-90 lately, but I can see no reason why it won't hit $200 when the big oil exporters start to see that the game is up, and that they had better get some real money for the stuff.

How much money would you pay to transport yourself, a friend or two and hundreds of pounds of stuff on a rolling couch at 60 mph? I'll bet if the choice was that or carry the stuff you would cough up some serious money.

I think the price could go up to whatever the market will bear.

[dolanbaker]

I think that this chart explains why the price is so dependant on demand.


The open market price will always be the cost of extracting the most expensive stuff (no supplier is going to sell on the open market at a loss), the other suppliers "make hay".

[Xenophobe]

Oil Crisis Still Lies Ahead: $200 Oil and $6 a Gallon Gas by Late 2012

This is good. Does anyone have any ideas how we can cause this to happen sooner, say, by the middle of 2011? The country, the world, the species needs it.

Any suggestions? How can we CAUSE the peak oil effects so often dreamed of which peak oil didn't give us?

[Revi]

I think we'll keep using the stuff at the same rate right up until it runs low.

What if you were in the buffet line and somebody told you that the shrimp was going to run out. Would you save some for the people behind you or would you take five or six? The last people in line are never going to get any shrimp anyway. Even if you don't take them, the next 3 people in line will.

That's why we are in such trouble.

Even if we hit a new peak this year, we are at or near the top of the plateau. There may be years that are even better than this one, but not many. It would be nice if we are just halfway across that plateau. That gives us until around 2015 before we start down.

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/12/p ... crude.html

[Cog]

There is probably some price per barrel of oil that causes another recession for the US. Not sure where that is but with China and India increasing their oil imports rapidly, we are not far from finding out what it is.

The shrimp analogy is quite a good one. ^^^^

[Questionmark]

Ugh, Alex Jones and crew are nothing but a bunch of saps. They look at naturally occurring trends and blame them on some faceless network of world elites. I had worked with a guy who listened to his radio show on a regular basis and he was convinced that oil supplies were nowhere near peak and that rising prices and production declines were orchestrated by the NWO. These conspiracy theories are not only way off base but counterproductive. Why bother trying to mitigate oil decline if you don't believe we're actually running out of oil?
/end rant

More on topic, I'm not convinced that the global economy can sustain prices that high. The fed may be printing money and handing it out to bankers but with the economy in such a weakened state it wouldn't take much to trigger another recession. If we couldn't take more than $147 in 2008 then I don't see how we can surpass that price now. We're still down 8 million jobs and lots of people that are working can barely make ends meet as it is. I wouldn't be surprised if the peak in price was 10-20 dollars lower than in 2008. But again, the Fed is in fact printing money that's finding it's way into the commodities markets so maybe there's enough interest in speculating in order to make up for the shortfall in demand that we see this time around.

[Cog]

That 2% cut in FICA withholding should be just enough to pay for the increased price in fuel which I expect next year.

[Xenophobe]

That 2% cut in FICA withholding should be just enough to pay for the increased price in fuel which I expect next year.

Not me. Inflation is inflation, we all deal with it in our own ways. I'm bumping any extra money I get from the SSI cut into my 401K until it reaches maximum matching. That way my additional savings are paid for by the tax cut and my employers, and won't cost me a dime.

[dionisio]

Just a footnote. I remember reading many years ago(1960?)it cost $.10 a barrel to
produce oil I think in Iran.

[gollum]

I'm about as prepped out as I could really want to be given my one acre place in rural Wyoming, I think I'll put the SSI money in to junk silver. I quit putting in to my 401K after the banking mess while not actually cashing out I'm pretty sure that any money in the official financial system will eventually be toast.

[Revi]

I just re-read the daily trade alert and I agree with the guy. He is saying the oil could hit $150 by the end of 2012. I think that's very possible. It might be around $100 next year with all the stuff that's happening. I can't see why not.

Once demand destruction is the word of the day it won't matter how much howling we do, the price is going to go up.

How much would you pay to be moved around at a mile a minute on a rolling couch with 2 of your friends and hundreds of pounds of stuff anyway?

The price is whatever the market will bear.

[Cog]

Demand destruction in the USA will not necessarily bring the price of oil down this time around. China and India are mopping up any excess that we won't use. What higher prices will do, will result in less money available to the US consumer to drive the economy and that will result in less jobs, more government borrowing/spending to prop it all up, and down the road another recession.

We have been averaging around 10 years between US recessions. 1973, 1983, 1991, 2001, and our latest recession 2007. Expect to see future recessions on a shortened time-line.

Even a Cornie would admit we are on a production plateau. With China/India on an oil import increase, someone is going to get squeezed out of the play.

[Xenophobe]

Once demand destruction is the word of the day it won't matter how much howling we do, the price is going to go up.

It was demand destruction which cratered the price last time...and quite nicely I might add.

However, I'm with whoever said that crude oil shoud be at $200/bbl. I'm tired of waiting, $200 isn't even enoug, its time to advocate $300 oil right now and the $8/gal gasoline which should come with it. Its time to confront the horror and BRING ON THE DOOM BABY!

Sitting in traffic today, observing the Hemi powered monster trucks stuck beside me in traffic and IDLING away more fuel than I would use over the next 5 miles, it just struck me. This is all simply ridiculous. Bring on $8/gal gasoline, and lets see what soccer moms can withstand. Lets see how important your discretionary transport for a single person wrapped in 6000# of steel is THEN. Want to live 40 miles from work? Sure...lets FEEL THE BURN BABY!



Time to Cowboy up and get with the program...no more pussyfooting around.

[Xenophobe]

Even a Cornie would admit we are on a production plateau.

Sure. But now we have to worry about another peak. Again. This insanity must stop! How many peaks can one species survive!

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/12/p ... crude.html

[pstarr]

Even a Cornie would admit we are on a production plateau.

Sure. But now we have to worry about another peak. Again. This insanity must stop! How many peaks can one species survive!

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/12/p ... crude.html

Idiot. There you go again, measuring petroleum in one-month increments. Come back when we have a year-on-year increase. Moron.

Beside, EIA and IEA are always revised downward. The opposite has never occurred.

[Xenophobe]

Moron.

Figured out the difference between jetliners and an airline yet genius? Or did you take my advice and round up a second grader to school you properly?

[anador]

Moron.

Figured out the difference between jetliners and an airline yet genius? Or did you take my advice and round up a second grader to school you properly?

Figured out the difference between spikes and a peak yet genius? Or did you take my advice and round up a second grader to school you properly?

[Xenophobe]

Figured out the difference between spikes and a peak yet genius? Or did you take my advice and round up a second grader to school you properly?

See, to make this work, you need a recent reference, and one that other than the author understands. For example, a "spike" as in railroad spike? And a "peak" as in, old peaks, current peaks, monthly peaks, the NEXT peak?

Its all about the delivery.