THE Iraqi Oil Thread pt 2 (merged)

[Pops]

Staniford has been blogging about Iraq oil this year,Early Warning.

Back in January, I began to track the al-Shahristani plan, in which the Iraqi oil ministry auctioned off a series of production development agreements for various Iraqi oilfields. This seemed like it might lead to a very large increase in Iraqi oil production from about 2.5mbd recently, to nearly 12mbd if you just add the target plateaus of all the contracts together:

Here is his latest chart

[Lore]

I believe the IEA projection is something like 4.5 mbpd by 2015, or approximately 1 million more than Saddam was producing during his rule.

[Graeme]

I posted it here

[OilFinder2]

Here's an intriguing possibility.

LINK

The night’s star attraction – Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP) – was the last to present. Finance director Ewen Ainsworth, recognising just how far the price has come in the past year, says there is potential for “an awful lot more” excitement.

He suggested that the work by Dynamic Global Advisors on the Shaikan-1 well in the Iraqi part of Kurdistan, which suggests oil in place of 1.9-7.4 billion barrels, could prove “conservative”.

He said there is a “good chance” of hitting the P1 number of 13 billion barrels. Using printouts from GKP’s computer simulation he showed how the Shaikan, Sheik Adi and Akri Bijeel fields could all be part of same oil body – and full of oil.

If this is the case, then it raises the prospect that discovery is of the scale of Kirkuk – a 60 billion barrel oil field find.

[Keith_McClary]

Iraq Wants the U.S. Out

Mr. Maliki was eager to draw a line in his most definitive remarks on the subject. "The last American soldier will leave Iraq" as agreed, he said, speaking at his office in a leafy section of Baghdad's protected Green Zone. "This agreement is not subject to extension, not subject to alteration. It is sealed."
...
He said full withdrawal of U.S. troops also will remove a prime motivator of insurgents—both the Shiite fighters tied to militia groups and Iran, and Sunnis linked to Mr. Hussein's ousted Baath party.

A lot of people don't think this will happen.

How about a poll thread?

[OilFinder2]

Looks like stuff is finally starting to happen here.

LINK

BP reaches production milestone in Iraq
Published: Jan. 12, 2011 at 8:59 AM

LONDON, Jan. 12 (UPI) -- It took a "massive undertaking" but British energy company BP said it increased production at Iraq's Rumaila oil field by 10 percent.

BP announced that its production team in Iraq increased production by more than 10 percent of the initial 1.06 million barrels per day at Rumaila.

"Reaching this production milestone is a great achievement and underlines BP's success in building its presence in the region," BP Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley said in a statement. "Increasing production at Rumaila, the world's fourth largest oilfield, has been a massive undertaking."

British energy company BP and the China National Petroleum Corp. offered to raise production at Rumaila to 2.85 million bpd within seven years. Once that level is reached, it would be the second most productive oil field after the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia.

[...]

LINK

Iraq Vows to Boost Oil Production to 3 MMbpd
Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa)|Wednesday, January 12, 2011

The Iraqi Ministry of Oil said Wednesday that the oil-rich nation will boost its production of crude to 3 million barrels per day (bpd) before the end of 2011, up from the current rate of 2.1 million bpd.

Head of licensing and contracts for the ministry, Abdul-Mehdi al- Amidi, told reporters that "the productive capacities of crude oil from the northern and southern oil fields will exceed 3 million barrels per day before the end of the year."

He said there is evidence that Iraq is reaching closer to producing 2.7 million bpd and could even exceed 3 million bpd by the end of the year.

[...]

[bratticus]

Iraq's oil expansion plans face major challenges
Jan 14, 2011
Associated Press

BASRA, Iraq (AP) — Hundreds of miles of mostly rusty pipelines cut across the bleak desert landscape near this southern port city under a smog-filled sky, as foreign crews in flak jackets, guarded by armed security, work nearby to extract the crude oil on which Iraq has pinned its future.

They are among the hundreds tasked with boosting Iraq's oil after the country awarded foreign firms access to its fields. But as they begin their work, the scope of their challenge is becoming painfully clear. Pipelines are old and their capacity is too low. Storage terminals are needed. Ports must be upgraded after decades of neglect.

Iraq is hoping to rake in tens of billions of dollars from its oil sector. But it's not a matter of simply ramping up production from the fields — Iraq's infrastructure is barely enough to move the amount of crude it's already producing to markets. Iraq's perennial security woes and a government still struggling to get its footing and direction all contribute to the uncertainty of how to these projects will move forward.

... skip ...

As companies began to move workers and equipment in, complaints also surfaced about the bureaucratic red tape. Visas were delayed and getting the equipment to the fields was difficult because of poor roads.

... skip ...

Another obstacle was the shortage of water that must be injected to boost pressure in the reservoirs. Many of Iraq's fields have experienced declining output largely because well pressure has not been sustained.

... snip ...

"perennial security woes" -- what a polite way of putting things.

[OilFinder2]

Mass quantities of abundance.

LINK

20 Jan 2011 Aswat Aliraq
Iraq's Oil Reserve reach 500 billion barrels, official

BAGHDAD: Iraq's oil reserves have reached about 500 billion barrels till this date, Iraq's Oil MinistryIraq's Oil MinistryLoading...'s official spokesman, Assem Jihad said on Thursday.

"The size of Iraq's oil reserves has reached about 500 billion barrels nowadays, whilst the previous oil reserves had reached 143 billion barrels," Jihad told a press expertise workshop, organized by the Italian News Agency, attended by Aswat al-Iraq news agency, adding that the above increase represent the 64 oil fields only.

Jihad said that Iraq's daily oil output would reach 3 million barrels per day (bpd), whilst the forthcoming few years shall witness its oil production to reach 10 million bpd, thanks to the development licenses signed between Iraq's Oil MinistryIraq's Oil MinistryLoading... and the international oil companies, specialized in oil production and development of oil industrial institutions.

[peripato]

Mass quantities of abundance.

LINK

20 Jan 2011 Aswat Aliraq
Iraq's Oil Reserve reach 500 billion barrels, official

BAGHDAD: Iraq's oil reserves have reached about 500 billion barrels till this date, Iraq's Oil MinistryIraq's Oil MinistryLoading...'s official spokesman, Assem Jihad said on Thursday.

"The size of Iraq's oil reserves has reached about 500 billion barrels nowadays, whilst the previous oil reserves had reached 143 billion barrels," Jihad told a press expertise workshop, organized by the Italian News Agency, attended by Aswat al-Iraq news agency, adding that the above increase represent the 64 oil fields only.

Jihad said that Iraq's daily oil output would reach 3 million barrels per day (bpd), whilst the forthcoming few years shall witness its oil production to reach 10 million bpd, thanks to the development licenses signed between Iraq's Oil MinistryIraq's Oil MinistryLoading... and the international oil companies, specialized in oil production and development of oil industrial institutions.

Iraq oil output to reach 4.4 mbpd in 2015-Merrill

LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Iraqi oil production could rise
to 4.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2015, according to a
report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Friday.
The revision from 3.8 million bpd forecast a year earlier
had been prompted by "higher reserve estimates" released by the
government, the bank's commodities research team said in a note.

The Iraqi government raised its proven oil reserves figure
by a quarter in October to 143 billion barrels [ID:nLDE69100U],
placing it third in BP's (BP.L) list of global reserves holders.
The research group added that strong emerging market demand
growth coupled with falling non-OPEC output would at least
partly offset 1.9 million bpd increase in Iraqi output in the
run-up to 2015.

It reiterated that "crude oil prices will have to rise over
the coming years."

Iraqi production rose to 2.6 million bpd in December
[ID:LDE6BQ0AA] for the first time in 20 years, but remained
below the 3 million bpd it produced in the late 1980s, prior to
its invasion of Kuwait.

The bank said it remained "sceptical" that government plans
to boost output exponentially by 2020 could be achieved, noting
that security problems and infrastructure issues were likely to
continue to limit production...

Based on this article I call bull on that 500 bbls figure, seeing the Iraqi's only revised their proven reserves to 143 bbls a few days ago. There's more to the article than quoted here, but really it's in cloud cuckoo land, once Merrill starts estimating Iraqi oil production out to 2025. Even then their analysts only peg it at 6.7 mbs p/d, which is way below whatever coke-induced delusions are being bandied about by Jihad. Now, there's an interesting name...

[OilFinder2]

^
I suspect you're probably right about the reserves. I would guess that 500 Bbbl figure is more like P3 reserves, or maybe an estimate of URR, or something like that.

[peripato]

^
I suspect you're probably right about the reserves. I would guess that 500 Bbbl figure is more like P3 reserves, or maybe an estimate of URR, or something like that.

You know these forecasts are still priced to perfection. They rely on not only a politically and economically stable Iraq over the next 10-15 years, but also a politically and economically stable world too over the same time frame. There is no real margin for error.

[Graeme]

Oil moves planned for Iraq

Iraqi and Japanese companies are in talks to expand oil export capacity from southern Iraqi ports, though there was no word on pending northern deliveries.

Iraq's South Oil Co. and the Japan International Cooperation Agency are in talks on a contract to expand oil exports from around 2.2 million barrels per day to about 5.8 million bpd, the Platts news service reports.

The project includes building a 45-mile oil pipeline to terminals in the Persian Gulf. The closing day for the bid is Friday and contracts should be announced by June, Platts added.

The Friday deadline, however, is in doubt because Japanese investors are at odds over the route for the pipeline.

Oil ministry officials told Platts on condition of anonymity that there were no new exports from oil fields in the Kurdish provinces of Iraq.

The Iraqi Oil Ministry in a January deal with the Kurdistan Regional Government paved the way for the resumption of oil exports starting in February.

UPI

[vision-master]

Iraq's largest oil refinery shut by bombing

BAIJI, Iraq - Militants attacked Iraq's largest oil refinery on Saturday, killing four workers and detonating bombs that touched off a raging fire and shut down the plant in northern Iraq, officials said.

In the southern town of Samawa, a second refinery was shut down by fire but officials said initial reports indicated it was started by a technical failure rather than an insurgent attack.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41791984

Militants bomb Iraq's largest oil refinery

Better 'fill er up today'.

[vision-master]

Blast prompts Iraq refinery closure

An oil refinery in the Iraqi town of Baiji has been shut down following a fire started by a bomb attack, according to the governor of Salahuddin province.

One person was reportedly killed in the attack, which occurred at around 4:30am local time (01:30GMT) on Saturday.

Jane Arraf, reporting from Baghdad, quoted Abdul Qader al-Saab, deputy director of the state-owned North Oil Company, as saying that unknown gunmen equipped with silencers infiltrated the biggest refinery in the Baiji refining complex, laid IEDs [Improvised explosive devices] in several operational units and fled before detonating them.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middl ... 78763.html

[vision-master]

Today..... off another 4um.

I just checked the local truck stops gas prices. In the last few minutes up 15 cents a gallon. Freaking gougers.

[eXpat]

[bratticus]

So first Dora:
pipeline-explosion-in-iraq-t60883.html

and now Baiji

[Repent]

They had 2 or 3 guys picketing the oil companies last year about 'Why do Canadian's have to pay the OPEC price for oil, when all of our oil comes from Alberta?'

It is a salient point. How much of your oil do you get directly from Libya or Iraq vs. how much do you get out of the ground in your own country? Clearly cartels, oil price fixing and gouging do exist at some level.

If deflation actually sets in because of another economic recession, watch as domestic refiners have to reduce these grotesque profit margins to sell fuel closer to their cost of production, maybe 1/3 of existing rates. At some point, locally produced and refined gasoline will be cheaper than imported cartel price fixed oil from the 3rd world.

[Pretorian]

They had 2 or 3 guys picketing the oil companies last year about 'Why do Canadian's have to pay the OPEC price for oil, when all of our oil comes from Alberta?'

It is a salient point.

No, it isnt. First of all a lot of non-Canadians are buying gasoline in Canada and there is no reason they shouyldnt be paying an Opec price. Second, if gasoline in Canada becomes cheap as in Venezuela or Iran half of USA will be buying gasoline there and no, you cannot card everybody at every gas-station. Third, a lot of Canadians who pay high $$ for gasoline do not really need them so it is a way for Canada to provide some extra padding for all the asses of lazybags and generally self-entitled crowds that you have grown there.

[bratticus]

They had 2 or 3 guys picketing the oil companies last year about 'Why do Canadian's have to pay the OPEC price for oil, when all of our oil comes from Alberta?'

Can you prove they are paying the OPEC price for oil?

What is "the OPEC price for oil" in your own words?

Alberta tar sands are incredibly expensive to produce, is the OPEC price a discount compared to the Alberta tar sands price?