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Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

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Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Wed 27 Oct 2010, 05:25:27

Alaska's untapped oil reserves estimate lowered by about 90 percent
By the CNN Wire Staff
October 27, 2010 1:35 a.m. EDT

(CNN) -- The U.S. Geological Survey says a revised estimate for the amount of conventional, undiscovered oil in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska is a fraction of a previous estimate.

The group estimates about 896 million barrels of such oil are in the reserve, about 90 percent less than a 2002 estimate of 10.6 billion barrels.

The new estimate is mainly due to the incorporation of new data from recent exploration drilling revealing gas occurrence rather than oil in much of the area, the geological survey said.


"These new findings underscore the challenge of predicting whether oil or gas will be found in frontier areas," USGS Director Dr. Marcia McNutt said in a statement. "It is important to re-evaluate the petroleum potential of an area as new data becomes available."

The organization also estimates 8 trillion cubic feet less gas than a 2002 estimate of 61 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered, conventional, non-associated gas -- meaning gas found in discrete accumulations with little to no crude oil in the reservoir.

"Recent activity in the NPRA, including 3-D seismic surveys, federal lease sales administered by the Bureau of Land Management and drilling of more than 30 exploration wells in the area provides geological information that is more indicative of gas than oil," the geological survey said.

The petroleum reserve in Alaska has been the focus of significant oil exploration during the past decade, stimulated by the mid-1990s discovery of the largest onshore oil discovery in the U.S. during the past 25 years, the organization said.


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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 27 Oct 2010, 07:28:30

Now that we know that the sleazebags in the Obama administration pressured scientists to reduce their estimates of the BP oil spill size and spill rate, I wonder if the Obama administration also pressured the USGS scientists to reduce their estimate of the NPRA oil potential.

The global economy is premised on expansion, where what we face is contraction
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Unfortunately, the Fed can't print oil
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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 27 Oct 2010, 11:37:10

Plantagenet wrote:Now that we know that the sleazebags in the Obama administration pressured scientists to reduce their estimates of the BP oil spill size and spill rate, I wonder if the Obama administration also pressured the USGS scientists to reduce their estimate of the NPRA oil potential.


I'm not all that surprised, I think worldwide reserves are exaggerated in general. I am surprised it was this much though, 90%! 8O

And Plant, this is from the USGS.. I can't believe you're blaming Alaska's missing oil on Obama. Is gravity his fault too? :roll:
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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby crude_intentions » Wed 27 Oct 2010, 14:38:03

I wonder if the Obama administration also pressured the USGS scientists to reduce their estimate of the NPRA oil potential.


Is that the official Republican position? :lol:

I wonder how The Palininator will respond to this news. Will it still be drill baby drill?

I'm betting yes, because to my knowledge, facts have never swayed a politician to change A previously stated opinion. :wink:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one.
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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 27 Oct 2010, 17:27:37

crude_intentions wrote:....drill baby drill....


Shouldn't that be "drill obama drill"? After all, Obama made a grand announcement that he was opening previously closed areas along most of the US coastline to offshore drilling----just before the BP oil spill happened on his watch. :roll:

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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby Sixstrings » Fri 29 Oct 2010, 12:02:55

Wow.. hard to believe this post has only 4 replies, on a PEAK OIL forum. Some people have been saying nobody posts anything oil related anymore, and they complain about all the politics and tinfoil that get posted.. and then when something very much peak oil related is posted everyone ignores it.

I guess all the hard core oil folks are gone.. I mean what gives, the USGS comes out and says 90% of the Alaska oil isn't really there and nobody around here has anything to say aobut it? :?:
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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby davep » Fri 29 Oct 2010, 12:13:35

I may be wrong here, but this appears to be talking about undiscovered oil reserves, as opposed to proven or semi-proven (or whatever the terminology is). Have the proven oil reserves also diminished by 90? If not, it just shows that previous estimates of future reserve discovery were wildly optimistic.
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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby Sixstrings » Fri 29 Oct 2010, 12:27:21

davep wrote:I may be wrong here, but this appears to be talking about undiscovered oil reserves, as opposed to proven or semi-proven (or whatever the terminology is). Have the proven oil reserves also diminished by 90? If not, it just shows that previous estimates of future reserve discovery were wildly optimistic.


Yeah that's what the article says, they're talking about the untapped reserves.

Anyway, in the old days on this forum we'd have a dozen people who know more about this than you, me, or Plant, and after a lively discussion us layfolk would end up with a better understanding of whether this is true or has the USGS been politically manipulated as Plant said.

Anyhow.. my main point in complaining about the lack of posts on this thread is just that others shouldn't complain about all the other stuff that gets posted, since clearly NOBODY seems to want to talk about peak oil. It doesn't get more "peak oil" than "Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90%."
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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby eXpat » Fri 29 Oct 2010, 12:40:34

Sixstrings wrote:Wow.. hard to believe this post has only 4 replies, on a PEAK OIL forum. Some people have been saying nobody posts anything oil related anymore, and they complain about all the politics and tinfoil that get posted.. and then when something very much peak oil related is posted everyone ignores it.

I guess all the hard core oil folks are gone.. I mean what gives, the USGS comes out and says 90% of the Alaska oil isn't really there and nobody around here has anything to say aobut it? :?:

Actually the forum has little activity lately, so i´m not surprised for the lack of answers, besides, consider that the hard core oil folks knew that already, and people get tired of saying "i told you so". And the Cornies are not gonna comment on that :razz:
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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 29 Oct 2010, 23:33:08

Estimates of reserves change a lot. Recently Saudi Arabia claimed they still have gargantuan amounts of "cheap, easy" oil. (I might believe them if they would let a credible third party source do an audit using modern scientific tools).

Brazil just supposedly found about 15 billion barrels of oil reserves in the pre-salt area if memory serves.

All these details are noise.

There is LOTS of oil out there.

The key question is how cheap is it going to be to obtain it and refine it and deliver it to the rapidly growing global motoring public? Once it gets too expensive for the average middle class consumer to be able to afford to burn it, things look mighty grim for the global economy.

Ironically, the better the global economy gets in the short term, the quicker the expensive oil piper has to be paid in the moderate term.
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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby smiley » Mon 01 Nov 2010, 17:46:03

All these details are noise.

There is LOTS of oil out there


I'd disagree. It is not just a matter of recovery but also a matter of this oil actually existing.

Oil estimates come with a probability number attached. In the case of the Brazil oil find you refer to, the probability that these 14 billion barrels are actually there and are recoverable is 10%. I bet that in a few years when all the media hype has toned down and the field is researched and actually in production it will turn out to be just a mediocre field, maybe a large mediocre field, but not the Giant they make it out to be.

The funny thing about using statistics this way is that the more uncertain your data are, the larger the standard deviation is, and the larger the amount of unproven reserves you can claim. Part of the huge numbers that are claimed for the arctic are for instance a statistic abberation caused by the lack of exploration.The Alaskan case shows that if you improve your statistics by actually drilling a set of wells these numbers can drop substantially.

When you cut through all the investor BS, and look at how much oil is actually found (as opposed to statistically generated), then my gut feeling is that there is not so much oil out there anymore.
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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby Xenophobe » Mon 01 Nov 2010, 18:48:41

Sixstrings wrote:Wow.. hard to believe this post has only 4 replies, on a PEAK OIL forum. Some people have been saying nobody posts anything oil related anymore, and they complain about all the politics and tinfoil that get posted.. and then when something very much peak oil related is posted everyone ignores it.


Current top threads:

Matt Save a Turd
Nouriel
Schlesinger Keynote and Taxes
Democrats brace
Banned people complaining about how entire university's have been banned..gee...imagine that! Someone dares to talk about peak oil on a peak oil website from the Netherlands and someone makes sure THAT won't ever happen again!

and this thread....

Sixstrings wrote:I guess all the hard core oil folks are gone.. I mean what gives, the USGS comes out and says 90% of the Alaska oil isn't really there and nobody around here has anything to say aobut it? :?:


Sure. The best thing I've seen said about it is right here. Wonderful analogy on why the numbers might be different.

http://forums.silentcountry.com/forums/ ... cent/page2
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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 01 Nov 2010, 19:23:22

Xenophobe wrote:http://forums.silentcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?19-Alaska-s-untapped-oil-reserves-estimate-lowered-by-about-90-percent/page2
What exactly is the point your link to yet another doom site? What more can be said about over-population, peak oil, resource depletion, and environmental degradation that hasn't been said before?

Anything new there?
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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby scas » Tue 02 Nov 2010, 05:49:19

I would have thought the American oil reserves would be the most accurate of any figure.

Perhaps those reserves have been sliced off, diverted elsewhere?

Storage, for a shortage?
For an attack on Iran?

Or perhaps the energy of oil will power some northern device to fix our atmosphere...

I hope for an angel to save us.
And I am atheist.
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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 02 Nov 2010, 06:05:13

scas wrote:Perhaps those reserves have been sliced off, diverted elsewhere?

Storage, for a shortage?



You can't divert or store reserves. They are in the ground. You can pretend they are there or pretend they aren't, but that's about all. :)
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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby scas » Tue 02 Nov 2010, 06:32:43

You've just slashed 90% of my reserves of hope.

Joking aside

If climate change continues as James Lovelock has described, then it is extremely probable that those reserves have been 'truncated'.

I wonder if Atlantis had their own set of 'alarmists'
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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby Xenophobe » Tue 02 Nov 2010, 17:40:07

scas wrote:I would have thought the American oil reserves would be the most accurate of any figure.


Well, they certainly have been defined as having the highest probability of occurrence, under the SEC "proven reserves" category.

But thats not what was slashed.

scas wrote:Perhaps those reserves have been sliced off, diverted elsewhere?


They were never reserves. So they haven't gone anywhere.

scas wrote:I hope for an angel to save us.
And I am atheist.


Worry about something real, gamma bursts, the sun going nova, athletes foot, at least we know those types of things would actually cause TEOTWAEKI. Don't sweat the little stuff.
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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 02 Nov 2010, 19:12:37

Xenophobe wrote:Worry about something real, gamma bursts, the sun going nova, athletes foot, at least we know those types of things would actually cause TEOTWAEKI. Don't sweat the little stuff.
scas, he doesn't believe in global warming or evolution either. Just ignore the troll
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Re: Alaska's Oil Reserve Estimates Slashed by 90% !

Unread postby scas » Fri 05 Nov 2010, 05:05:38

It is unfortunate.

However the works of Dawkins, Lovelock, Taleb, and Hawking paint a clear picture of what will happen. All one needs to do is look at look at the expansion of time beginning 13.7 bya, and monitor the patterns of organism flow, resource flow, and atmospheric/oceanic/land cycles. Then we can understand our next twenty years.

The genetic bottleneck won't favor cognitive dissonance.
Nor will rebellion against whomever Mein Fuhrer is.

I am in favor of GeoEngineering, funded through any methods possible.

Too bad my pilots licence has become useless. Perhaps i'll get drafted?

It also provides a small comfort.
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