German Military Report - English

[eastbay]

http://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-g ... ios-2010-9

This leaked report says we're soon to be facing apocalyptic scenarios. A bleak scenario looms right around the corner.

The Bundeswehr study also raises fears for the survival of democracy itself. Parts of the population could comprehend the upheaval triggered by peak oil "as a general systemic crisis." This would create "room for ideological and extremist alternatives to existing forms of government." Fragmentation of the affected population is likely and could "in extreme cases lead to open conflict."


Like I've been trying to tell people here: Capitalism and western-style democracy are through.

[pstarr]

The story contradicts itself. It assumes

“. . . that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later."

Why 15-30 years?

Market failures resulting from “price shocks” could cause a “global chain reaction” and “Crisis of political legitimacy” immediately. When advertising-supported media whitewashes bad news it is called objectivity.

[eastbay]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/ger ... 38,00.html


Above find the link to the der Spiegel article.

pstarr, the German military refused to comment leaving the 'why 15 to 30 years from now' question unanswered.

[GASMON]

Off Topic. Deleted.

[Carlhole]

There's nothing new in this report.

It basically just briefly restates some of the ramifications of peak oil that we've known all along.

[eastbay]

Agree 100%. Nothing new here. Nothing new to us, that is.

We've long known that at some point governments must prepare for Our Common Disaster.

We've long known peak oil is now. And I do mean now.

We've long known peak oil will destroy society in a historically unprecedented manner.

We've long known major government think-tanks are preparing for this disaster.

We've long known some will shake their heads and say it cannot be true.

Interestingly this study paints a very dark and gloomy picture. Like we unapologetically do here.

[Carlhole]

We've long known that at some point governments must prepare for Our Common Disaster.

You're just re-iterating some of your beliefs. Personally, I never was very religious. I subscribe to a more scientific view of the world and cosmos.

But it's not surprising to me that there has been a German military report on peak oil. I imagine ALL the militaries of the world have an internet connection and read about such things - just like you and me. Of course, the military, being an organ of government will generate a report on just about anything. It would have been more interesting had they actually added something new to the discussion.

[pstarr]

Agree 100%. Nothing new here. Nothing new to us, that is.

We've long known that at some point governments must prepare for Our Common Disaster.

We've long known peak oil is now. And I do mean now.

We've long known peak oil will destroy society in a historically unprecedented manner.

We've long known major government think-tanks are preparing for this disaster.

We've long known some will shake their heads and say it cannot be true.

Interestingly this study paints a very dark and gloomy picture. Like we unapologetically do here.

Yeah. He contradicts himself continually.

Here he blithely accepts and then quickly dismisses the ramifications of this dismal important report (given it authorship--one of the world's major economic powers and important military analysts.)

In countless other threads (usually promotions of some latest whiz-bang technology sure to revolutionize the way we make energy) he simply dismisses peak oil in its entirely. There are no ramifications because we will simply replace petroleum with the roboticmind, the singularity or with alternative energies such as LFTR's

[Plantagenet]

The German military report suggested peak oil might occur as early as 2010, but the catastrophic economic and societal effects wouldn't crop up for 20-30 more years.

Doesn't that seem overly optimistic? How are we supposed to go along just fine for another 20 years when just the first little bump into global supply limitations in 2008 sent the world economy into a tailspin ----

[Pops]

I subscribe to a more scientific view of the world and cosmos.

That is a gem carl. I also believe in the mind meld and I used to watch Max Headroom, too.

Anyway [snort]

Thanks for posting that eb, I saw it this morning but ran out of time to post it.

It seems particularly blunt in a couple of areas, "bi-lateral" trade for one. Of course the deals China has been making with countries all around the world come to my mind - they understand. Is the US going to rely on the free market right up till it doesn't work and we need to reconstitute Enduring Freedom? Obviously we have Canada on our side today and the King of SA paid but Venezuela and Russia? A whole different take on Export Land...

I wonder about the US relapsing into "planned Economy" like we did in the 70s?

I also wondered about the description of 20 years till problems...

[pstarr]

I subscribe to a more scientific view of the world and cosmos.

That is a gem carl. I also believe in the mind meld and I used to watch Max Headroom, too.

Anyway [snort]

Hilarious. If I had previously had a mouthful of pea soup in my mouth, it would now mostly be in my nose, eyes, and ears.

Thanks for posting that eb, I saw it this morning but ran out of time to post it.

What is an "eb?"

[eastbay]

Bi-lateral trade deals will be the order of the day and fungibility of oil trade will slowly fade.

I too suspect the German military think tank knows exactly why they said '15 to 30 years' is when the trouble will start to get painful. These guys are the worlds smartest and know exactly what they're doing. If they were to suggest unrest would ignite as soon as oil production falls 'unrest' might get started a bit early. Like quite soon.

And since there is a bit of time remaining why not strive to extend the time of stability awhile. Nothing to lose by doing that and plenty to gain. If in their position I would do the same.

pstarr you silly rabbit. eb is me.

[Oakley]

That 15 to 30 years before trouble sounds somewhat optimistic.

If we are at peak, then production will decline at some rate. A rate of decline of 5%, for example, would cut production in half in 14 years, just the opposite from a rate of growth of 5% that would double production in 14 years. (Remember Prof. Albert Bartlett and his lecture on rates of growth.)

It is hard for me to imagine the destruction that a halving of the amount of oil available would bring. Half of the tractors running, half of the trucks delivering, half of the equipment strip mining coal, half of the trains delivering bulk cargo, half of the ships at sea, half of the plastics, half of the oil related drugs, half of the gasoline for personal and employment travel.

On top of this, surely some effort will be made to squander more energy on some desperate last ditch effort to solve the impossible.

This does not even consider the relentless progression of deteriorating EROEI which further strips of available oil.

And how much oil do you think governments and their militaries will squander fighting wars for control of the remains?

They must be factoring in a fifteen to thirty year massive depression to cut demand.

Fifteen to thirty years; good luck.

[eastbay]

A reader at TOD has translated a few highlights into English accompanied by a lively discussion. Excellent!

[Ibon]

The original analysis in german is here

http://peak-oil.com/download/Peak%20Oil ... 082010.pdf

I am currently half way through. It is very good. Not alot is original though and I would guess that 98% of what is stated here was taken from studies that are referenced on THe Oil Drum. The content is not new and what surprises me most is that this is considered as new research in Germany. There is really no strategic reason for Germany's Bundeswehr to hide the information in this report. The agency that wrote the study (Zentrum fur Transformation der Bundeswehr) has the task of supporting the Minister of Defence in Germany with a transformatipn process to adapt Germany's military for changes anticipated in the 21st century.

This report is not unlike the well known Hirsch report here in the states except that this german report is for the german military.

Since Germany does not have any major oil companies and is not a global empire there is no real reason to make secret what is written here. Germany's total dependence on imported oil is critical but their population is not going to get thrown into a crisis of confidence if they know the full truth of peak oil. The population there is already savy about many aspects of peak oil and the average German on the street is so many miles and miles ahead of his counterpart in the US about understanding geopolitics and the affect resource constraints can have going forward. I would guess the average German reading this would agree and understand it at first glance. There isn't much of a political movement present in Germany in denial of the truth of Peak Oil.

On a personal note I enjoy reading this in German since I am so familiar with the topic it is easy to understand.

[fiedag]

Ibon, if you are intending to publish an English version, I am willing to assist.

[Ibon]

Ibon, if you are intending to publish an English version, I am willing to assist.

Das hat jemand beim Oil Drum schon gemacht. Ist gibt wirklich nicht viel neues an dieser Bericht.

[Pops]

Rapier has a translation.

[Carlhole]

Rapier has a translation.

They suggest that it has become urgent to understand those consequences of an eventual peak now in order to have enough time to adapt.

Yes, well, isn't this my position on the peak oil problem? Adaptation and innovation in the face of crisis? This is what I find interesting.

Nothing in this report claims an unavoidable energy apocalypse. As the crisis becomes more apparent, so will the Sci/Tech response.

[Fredrik]

Good find. As stated, the article doesn't contain much new information but its publication at probably the most popular German news site is ominous.

If we are at peak, then production will decline at some rate. A rate of decline of 5%, for example, would cut production in half in 14 years, just the opposite from a rate of growth of 5% that would double production in 14 years. (Remember Prof. Albert Bartlett and his lecture on rates of growth.)

It is hard for me to imagine the destruction that a halving of the amount of oil available would bring. Half of the tractors running, half of the trucks delivering, half of the equipment strip mining coal, half of the trains delivering bulk cargo, half of the ships at sea, half of the plastics, half of the oil related drugs, half of the gasoline for personal and employment travel.

If we first cut out the "loose fat" - replaced private automobiles with carpooling/buses/trains/bikes, stopped manufacturing and transporting non-essential items etc., I believe there would be enough oil for growing and transporting food, producing drugs etc. for quite a few years.

Of course this requires that national governments take over, at least temporarily, to handle the transition (as stated in the article).