However, the key point of course is that our global supply of net oil exports is the sum of net exports from oil exporting countries that will generally, based on recent case histories, sooner or later demonstrate the kind of net export declines that we have seen in Mexico, where an eight year 24% decline in production corresponded to a 59% decline in net oil exports. And as noted above, a direct implication of "Net Export Math," is that Mexico's estimated post-2004 CNE (Cumulative Net Exports) depletion rate is about 18%/year.
Here is a link to my post up the thread that shows remaining estimated post-Index Year CNE for various regions:
an-update-on-mexico-s-net-oil-exports-t68490.html#p1154771As noted in this post, by definition we are depleting the remaining post-2005 supply of Global and Available CNE. The key question is the rate of depletion, but my premise is that we are only maintaining something resembling "Business As Usual," because of huge, and almost totally overlooked, rates of depletion in post-2005 Global and Available CNE.