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Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 16 May 2012, 18:56:07

dissident wrote: AGW... by 2030 it will be clear where we are headed.


Isn't it clear already?

One of the nice things about shifting from coal to NG for electricity generation is that the CO2 production from NG is much less then from coal.

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NG produces much lower CO2 emissions than oil or coal.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby Pops » Wed 16 May 2012, 21:18:23

Pickens was betting on peak NG back in the early '90s and went bust, then happened to start up again right at the oil runup to '08... the reason he is in NG is he still owns all the leases he bought hoping to kill when the price inflated after the NG peak, he's in wind because he owns several thousand acres in S OK and sold his neighbors on wind so he could get a transmission line to his place – same reason he's trying to export the Oglala to fill Dallas swimming pools. Pickens is no prophet, he's a deal maker looking for a quick profit. Read "The First Million is the Hardest" it's pretty good.

Anyway, I can see us having lights much longer than V8 4x4s and I think that's a good thing even though I have 2 V8 4x4s. Back in the day, folks had their house wired for a light bulb way before electricity got to their neighborhood, that's how welcome and utilitarian electric lighting was, have you ever lived for any amount of time with kerosene lanterns and candles? I've had some pretty crappy, in fact non-functioning vehicles in my time but I've never let the electricity be shut off. Electricity is the keystone of modern life, and again I'm talking about the basics of light, water, sanitation, refrigeration... personal vehicles are nice but a majority of their use is a mindless waste.

Which isn't to say being priced out of the oil market will be as easy as Plant likes to think. People are switching to NG pretty fast trying to save a buck in the long run, I think we really have no idea how long the run is gonna be. At the point that we get to peak NG we'll be a the peak, period.
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 16 May 2012, 22:13:09

Except for the fact that past peak NG, Australia will happily supply all the coal our old buddies need for at least another hundred years. By which time reality will have chewed the ass out of fear overriding nuke power, we can then sell you at least another few hundred years worth of Uranium. Point being electric and associated inputs is the place to have money tied up, as it is the element of our current energy infrastructure requiring least change to stay extremely useful. The adaptability of electricity makes it central, another fact Tessler had right.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 17 May 2012, 02:24:12

Unfortunately, electricity is not a source of energy, and we still need various sources in order to use it. Hence, an energy trap:

http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/201 ... ergy-trap/

as well as the need for petrochemicals, etc.

Thus, various sources of energy will obviously be used (as pointed out earlier) but energy returns will likely limit a return to business as usual.

Finally, there are more problems besides climate change, more conflict, and even debt, such as lag time:

"It Will Take 131 Years To Replace Oil, And We've Only Got 10"

http://articles.businessinsider.com/201 ... -oil-sands
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 17 May 2012, 03:42:43

Ralphy, you have over-read what Ranger has said (which could have been more mannered) and what I have said, here and in the thread which I should credit Ranger for sparking me to split this off/ Pop's 'What is the limiting factor'. I think we are all on the same page in terms of BAU being in serious sH#t; at least also on the fact that there are extremely frightening environmental outcomes on the horizon and beginning to emerge/ which will probably be the true terminus of the global economy along with perhaps most or all of our descendants.

Where the difference is:

Many of us writing here (and many more who are not actively posting) were very very concerned that peak oil would be the shock to destroy the entire economy and with it all plans dependent on any semblance of 'normal'. I feel that is where you are Ralphy, also Shaved Monkey and probably a few others and a lot more who are currently quiet.

The dominant view has clearly IMO become that economic jugglery is not subject to the laws of nature in any ordinary way. It will continue. Whether or not most of us starve in desert ghettos or blow big chunks off with diseases or bombs, the money game, in fiat, will continue. It has been decided there is zero option to having a global economy.

The BAU MSM is still blah blah growth blah blah recovery. Peakers know that overall this is bunk; there will be no such thing as a 'recovery' by current definition, this is beyond dispute. Hence Pop's thread asking what are the limit's?

Because the limit is not money.

The end of oil is not going to mean the end of money.

The game has a very long way to run yet.

The gamers' if giving thought to the consequences; imagine their great grandkids living under a giant plexiglass solar collecter wizz bang unity networked supercomputer protoplasm world, with the rest of the world resembling a damp and poisonous version of Mars, think "Oh well, that's kinda cool!"

Meanwhile electricity based modules are going to dominate many aspects of the global economy, well beyond oil. With resource flexibility and all the billions going into carbon capture/ (recycle re-burn via algae emerges strongly at this point), the cards have essentially been shown.

After oil, the next seriously key resources are metals associated with electricity capture, storage and transfer. The energy to run through the equipment is going to be competitive up until there may be no live coral or anything with a spine in the ocean. I'm pretty sure, at that point, we are totally FUBAR. I think the science based on calcium accumulation in mollusk and reef species indicates global ocean death in the 100 to 250 year timespan from now. It is unknown what science may be able to achieve to alleviate or mitigate any of the most drastic effects.

The most serious thinkers seem to be suggesting nukes are the only backstop energy with a miniscule carbon footprint by comparison to any alternative, which may buy us enough time to sidestep absolute global disaster by carbonification of oceans and air.

Amazingly, central Australia may turn once again into a forest full of rivers.... mmmm....
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby Timo » Thu 17 May 2012, 16:13:20

Destination: Alice Springs!!!
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby Pops » Thu 17 May 2012, 16:47:58

Interesting.

I can see why OF, SoS et al don't post much any more, all the peakers have been converted.

Pretty interesting considering, conventional oil flat for 6 or 7 years, the new savior technology results in wells that flow 1,000 b/d – before depleting to 100 within a few months, prices at all-time record levels, worldwide austerity and uprising the order of the day, etc, etc.

– Not directed at anyone in particular – Is it because you don't see Max on your street or that you think this is just as bad as it can get?
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby Timo » Thu 17 May 2012, 17:03:07

I had a pointless argument with my brother-in-law last weekend, and it started over the future of oil and high gas prices and why it's always someone elses fault. I parroted the standard PO factual statements about the easy oil being gone, being forced to look deeper and deeper into the earth and off-shore, EROEI, and yada-yada. Everyone here is familiar with those facts, or at least those arguments. Yet, my brother-in-law is very religious, and even getting him to consider that fossil fuels are millions of years old is quite a challenge because the earth, itself, is nowhere near that old. In fact, he told me that old oil wells that were dried up and shut down in Texas have been re-opened, and "scientists" have determined that it only takes about 10 years to create oil. I asked if he meant bio-fuels, and he said no. He meant crude. Light sweet crude can be naturally generated in the earth in only 10 years time. I listened to him in astonishment, started to offer some reality to his delusions, but then realized that i'd better stop the conversation, altogether. The vast majority of humans may not be as religious as he is, but the underlying ignorance of chemistry, physics, geology, any of the actual sciences is infathomable. And that ignorance is growing at a rate of several million people on this planet every single day!

Sometimes i'm astounded at the disconnect between blind faith and reality.

Ay-yai-yai-yai-yai!
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby Lore » Thu 17 May 2012, 19:48:03

Mostly they don't want to hear it, or attempt to understand it.

Basically it comes down to the primal human fear of the unknown when it stretches beyond ones current comfort level. People will then often surround themselves in an echo chamber that gives them that cozy womb like feeling, where life offers guarantees and everyone thinks like you.

One of the most traumatic experiences the human psyche can ever encounter is the complete and absolute failure of the most dearly held ideals that a person believes in. At all costs, even beyond logic, most people will protect themselves from any such epiphany.
Last edited by Lore on Thu 17 May 2012, 20:04:22, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 17 May 2012, 20:03:15

We are at the stage where the bottleneck begins to become visible, before the actual occurrence. TPTB are maintaining a face (farce) of return to normal/ global GDP growth at whatever cost. Behind the scenes in the MSM I am pretty sure by now the real powers know what is really going on and that it is all about peak oil. They are behind us here in the sense of expecting all the permanent mess we are beginning to see in the global economy, but only blind Freddy is not able to see that something is drastically wrong and does not appear to have a solution.

I am not in this thread suggesting that peak oil is less than a dire threat to society and humanity. I am suggesting that there is going to be another transition in the global economy, rather than anything resembling the end of such a thing in our lifetimes.

It is in all of our nature to look for a niche when AHBL, micro or macro.
Being that we are almost all 1st worlders here on this site, Max is not yet in our streets, but he is beginning to dominate in many 3rd world countries and regions.

Ours being at the 'enlightened' or at least 'intelligent' end of the spectrum of PTB, we can expect 'Them' to use their resources to do whatever it takes to hedge their position. Part of this means bringing along some slaves in the lifeboats, in other words maintaining the current fiat pay slave system, based on energy multipliers. Oil clearly utterly dominates the last 100 years of history. The next bump in technology is all about the move away from in-situ combustion engine, to a cabled electric with a wide array of input sources. Centralized control and fiscal redistribution.

There is somewhere on high a discussion going on about which regions of the globe will be sacrificed for the surety of the survival of 'the species' (those in the room).

There is no doubt the next 50 years are going to be intense.

3 years ago, I was 50/50 there wasn't going to be an operational digital clock in 50 years.(Due to Peak Oil) It's a window opening in some places, closing in many others.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 17 May 2012, 20:29:05

SeaGypsy wrote: TPTB are maintaining a face (farce) of return to normal/ global GDP growth at whatever cost. Behind the scenes in the MSM I am pretty sure by now the real powers know what is really going on and that it is all about peak oil.


Why do you think that? Why would TPTB waste trillions of dollars on stimulus and bank bailouts and loans to Greece if they really thought peak oil was the problem?

NOPE----the evil people in the TPTB are just as stupid and ignorant as everyone else. They think we are in a financial crisis and they can fix it by bailing out banks and insolvent countries and printing more Euros and Dollars and Yen and Yuan to pay for it.

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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 17 May 2012, 20:55:28

Sorry I ought define my language better. I have counted the vast majority of political leaders as theater players/ non originators for a very long time. In this instance, I tend to side with the ultra-rich old money club conspiracy theorists when it comes to who are the real PTB.
People most of us plebs have never heard of, but have world leaders on speed dial.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 17 May 2012, 21:11:47

Timo wrote:Destination: Alice Springs!!!
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Most of central Australia looked like above for 15,000 years; having previously sustained primordial forests..
You have to wonder when it looks like this, with all the climate change news chatter...
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 17 May 2012, 22:23:52

Northern Australia will get wetter...but southern Australia----where all the fine Aussie women live----- is supposed to get even drier then it is now due to global warming.

southern Australia to get even drier due to AGW

The folks in south Australia can expect more long periods of droughts, more dust storms, more unhappy farmers, and more drying up of the Murray River.

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Can you identify the Australian woman in this picture?
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 17 May 2012, 23:20:58

For the first time since the building of the Snowy River hydro system the river had an all dams full flood, as did the Murray river and the Darling, as with most mainland agricultural areas in the south east, this summer's crop has broken records by 20%. The Brisbane river is beginning to look like it may flood regularly again. But then the next El Nino could be just around the corner and we are back to a 7 or 10 or 12 year drought.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby Pops » Fri 18 May 2012, 08:40:48

SeaGypsy wrote:I am not in this thread suggesting that peak oil is less than a dire threat to society and humanity. I am suggesting that there is going to be another transition in the global economy, rather than anything resembling the end of such a thing in our lifetimes.

I see. I agree, teotwawki is not the end of the world, just the end of our world, business will continue it just won't be the usual.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby Lore » Fri 18 May 2012, 09:00:42

Pops wrote:
SeaGypsy wrote:I am not in this thread suggesting that peak oil is less than a dire threat to society and humanity. I am suggesting that there is going to be another transition in the global economy, rather than anything resembling the end of such a thing in our lifetimes.

I see. I agree, teotwawki is not the end of the world, just the end of our world, business will continue it just won't be the usual.


Then again you have to throw in the mix of other catastrophic issues to appreciate the interplay of how peak oil will really affect all of us. Sadly, when you consider the totality of the threats we face, peak oil just being one of them, then I do believe it will be the ultimate end for many.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby furrybill » Fri 18 May 2012, 09:37:45

Lore wrote:
Pops wrote:
SeaGypsy wrote:I am not in this thread suggesting that peak oil is less than a dire threat to society and humanity. I am suggesting that there is going to be another transition in the global economy, rather than anything resembling the end of such a thing in our lifetimes.

I see. I agree, teotwawki is not the end of the world, just the end of our world, business will continue it just won't be the usual.


Then again you have to throw in the mix of other catastrophic issues to appreciate the interplay of how peak oil will really affect all of us. Sadly, when you consider the totality of the threats we face, peak oil just being one of them, then I do believe it will be the ultimate end for many.


Great way to put it. This civilization is definitely toast. And I think it'll be the ultimate end for most rather than many. But it probably won't be the end of the world. There'll be a very long dark ages with pockets of learning and industry. Just like the monks copied texts and preserved some of the ancient wisdom some of what we have done right will be kept. Then some new civilization will rise from the ashes, hopefully having learned lessons from our stupidity.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby Timo » Fri 18 May 2012, 09:50:34

Growing up, such discussion of TEOTWAWKI always contained the caveat, not in our lifetime. Well, not in our lifetime is still possible, i guess, but undoubtedly, that caveat is becoming much less secure as we begin to replace it with the word "maybe." Those who pay attention are beginning to have serious doubts about the longevity of the world as we know it. Alas, we are the minority, and the vast majority controls the apparatus that raises those doubts, to begin with, and the vast majority are either stupid, don't care (or both), greedy (or all three), or are in denial (or all four). From my own perspective, yes, bad times are a-comin', but it won't be the end of the world. The world was here for millions and millions of years before humanity, and it will be here for millions of years after we're gone. As long as we have a molten core, this planet will have life. Life will continue, and humans will be here for a very long time to come, but ironically, it might be technology that ends up seperating us into the haves and have nots. Or rather, in to the rulers and the serfs. I agree with Kunstler that we're headed for a much more regional economic system, as opposed to a global economy. Here in the middle of the US, grapes from Chile, or apples from NZ, will increasingly become luxuries, instead of stapels, like we have now. International travel will continue, but the mass-transit airline industry will be reduced to only those who have vast quantities of money. For the "public", we'll travel on ships, or not at all, just like we did one hundred years ago. The 20th Century was a technological bubble, enabling an exponential increase in everyone's standard of living. Along with this standard of living, there were also major, MAJOR technologies developed that can either save us, or kill us all, and those positive technologies are being more slowly advanced because there's simply no economic reason for saving the world. If everyone has what they need and the planet is safe from destructuve technologies, there goes my power and my wealth. I'll stop that before i lose control of everything that i see. We'll also see a lot more sudden and abrubt changes to political systems, all around the globe. Back in the 60s and 70s, how many people here had duck and cover exercises in school, just in case there was a nuclear war? That seems ludicrous today, but was taken very seriously back then. How many people actually thought we would see the end of the Soviet Empire back in the 70s? Again, ludicrous. Things change, and given twice as many people on the planet now, as opposed to then, and us 7 billion people are all competing against each other for the natural resources that are left to be found, and that are decreasing in volume every single day, and the increase in media and communication technologies that enable nearly every single human to know what's happening on the other side of the planet, so 15 seconds ago, along with the ideological extremism we're all witnessing now...........Ay Carumba! It's hard to think of life as we know it lasting very long, at all.

OK. I'll go take a chill pill. That will solve everything.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 18 May 2012, 11:52:23

Timo, some would say that yours was only a rant, a distraction from the topic thread. But I wouldn't. I have come to the conclusion that peak oil now means political discussions are distractions, economic/financial problems are unsolvable predicaments, and that most so-called "solutions" are necessarily in isolation.
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