PeakOil is You
Peak?
Peak?
by Pops » Thu 17 Sep 2015, 13:49:31
Peak?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Peak?
by Subjectivist » Thu 17 Sep 2015, 14:15:54
Not that my opinion counts for much in the real world, but the decline curves being posted for Bakken and Eagle Ford and a couple others scream we are here. What happens next? Your guess is as good as mine, maybe we weather the storm and muddle on through, maybe people go nuts and riot in every city and town as our culture crumbles from the psychological effects more than the physical effects. I vote for muddling on through, which was the name of a ship in one of my favorite books as a kid.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: Peak?
by Pops » Thu 17 Sep 2015, 14:45:48
pstarr wrote:Or something lol
It sounded damn good!
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Peak?
by Cog » Thu 17 Sep 2015, 15:42:08
No matter the topic. It could be economic doom, peak oil doom, or climate doom, doomers all think alike. If you post any article, fact, or paper that counteracts their doom scenario, they won't like it and castigate you as a cornucopian.
I've learned a long time ago. in this place. that good news is bad news to a doomer.
I've learned a long time ago. in this place. that good news is bad news to a doomer.
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Re: Peak?
by Cog » Thu 17 Sep 2015, 15:47:52
pstarr wrote:Cog, why not leave? We obviously thrive on the bad news and you don't.
I'm trying to help you. I require no thanks for this help but you could at least acknowledge my contributions to your education.
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Re: Peak?
by Cog » Thu 17 Sep 2015, 16:05:34
pstarr wrote:It's not drunk posting Cog. It's peak-oil science. Keep digging yourself deeper into your own hole of ignorance. You might hit abiotic lol
So link me to the post where you predicted that fracking would reverse the decline of US oil production, so that I may bask in your wisdom.
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Re: Peak?
by Cog » Thu 17 Sep 2015, 16:10:11
pstarr wrote:You are over your head Cog.
Not to worry pstarr, I'm sure there will be some more doom coming eventually. Just be patient. Meanwhile, I will be planning my retirement in glorious Tennessee.
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Re: Peak?
by Pops » Thu 17 Sep 2015, 16:17:21
How should I know?
We are in a classic commodity bust phase following a boom. Price fell on a production surplus, now low price is shutting down expensive producers. Been here done this.
Not really the classic PO scenario I'm pretty sure...
But, conventional has barely budged in 10 years of the highest average prices and investment ever.
That is a rather big dot.
The other ringer IMHO is the fact that the current surplus is largely coming from the US, The PetroDollar State, the exporter of the currency that every nation uses as it's reserve. The problem with that is since we are importing less oil, we're also exporting fewer dollars. The upshot is that since oil is still sold in inflated US$s the price to everyone else is that much higher.
Still, Iran is offline and RU close, Syria, Nigeria and even Iraq have problems; Brazil and the "huge" Lula field are stalled and Petrobras in bankruptcy (or close?). In fact many of the NOC that have gobbled up the 7 Sisters are in decline because governments don't do for profit biz too well and just can't keep from spending the profits rather than reinvesting. I'm way over thinking I can see the future in my ball(s). Any or all of those things can change in a short while and Presto Chango!
There is 3mbd of overproduction right now, against demand at the highest level since the recession. That really sucks if this is peak since we will feel the hangover from a hot Saturday much more on Sunday that we would on say Tuesday after a couple of days trying to cut back.
PS, lets try to refrain from the ad homs, please.
We are in a classic commodity bust phase following a boom. Price fell on a production surplus, now low price is shutting down expensive producers. Been here done this.
Not really the classic PO scenario I'm pretty sure...
But, conventional has barely budged in 10 years of the highest average prices and investment ever.
That is a rather big dot.
The other ringer IMHO is the fact that the current surplus is largely coming from the US, The PetroDollar State, the exporter of the currency that every nation uses as it's reserve. The problem with that is since we are importing less oil, we're also exporting fewer dollars. The upshot is that since oil is still sold in inflated US$s the price to everyone else is that much higher.
Still, Iran is offline and RU close, Syria, Nigeria and even Iraq have problems; Brazil and the "huge" Lula field are stalled and Petrobras in bankruptcy (or close?). In fact many of the NOC that have gobbled up the 7 Sisters are in decline because governments don't do for profit biz too well and just can't keep from spending the profits rather than reinvesting. I'm way over thinking I can see the future in my ball(s). Any or all of those things can change in a short while and Presto Chango!
There is 3mbd of overproduction right now, against demand at the highest level since the recession. That really sucks if this is peak since we will feel the hangover from a hot Saturday much more on Sunday that we would on say Tuesday after a couple of days trying to cut back.
PS, lets try to refrain from the ad homs, please.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Pops - Elite
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Re: Peak?
by Pops » Thu 17 Sep 2015, 16:27:25
I never say never OTOH I haven't been saying NOW for 10years either
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Pops - Elite
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- Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
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