pstarr wrote:so I guess no doom, huh?
Seriously for a moment...
My position is that BAU is
not a house of cards, that is has more tricks up its sleeve, and that people, by and large want things to remain just as they are (yes, including the suburbs). When I say "more tricks" I do not extend that to mean "they will think of something". I think there's definitely a point of diminishing returns. I don't think we're there yet, certainly not with oil prices sinking to the floor.
What that means is that there will be sideways adaptations that will perpetuate all of the aspects of BAU that you and other doomers despise so much.
If you look at doom as a vehicle to sweep away a lifestyle you despise, then it's going to color your analysis. If you concede my points, though, then you can see all the reasons why the can has been able to be kicked further down the road as it has.
If you want to be continually frustrated by events not unfolding as you predicted, then ignore what I say and stay on the edge of your seat licking your lips over the end of suburbia, but I'm going to stick to my moderate scenario until the data says otherwise.
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I just think your analysis is equivalent to watching someone you hate walk down the street and predicting he'll trip on a paving stone and break his neck. He probably won't trip, but if he does, you'll be calling him breaking his neck until he just gets up, dusts himself off, and keeps walking. It's a prediction colored almost completely by hate.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
