[dinopello]

Can't go wrong with a "How should I know?" vote.

But Yes, no, or maybe - what are the implications ? What should one do ? That's all that matters.

I have cash now to pay off my mortgage. Assuming I want to stay where I am - should I pay it off now or hang on to the cash or convert the cash to assets or investments or what ? I know there are a million threads on that but what is the right answer ?

[ROCKMAN]

Peak what? EFS production? Global heavy oil? Global liquid hydrocarbons? Peak opinions about global peak oil timing? LOL

[Peak_Yeast]

I would say we are still on the undulating plateau - some ups, some downs, but there is too much noise to know for certain yet.

And part of the noise is for example the accounting fraud with biofuels, political factors and sheer dumb luck. Also there are a few shots left.. Iran, Iraq, Syria can possibly provide more barrels the coming few years. But from then on i see mostly luck as a factor and possibly the spread of unconventional fossil fuels extraction.

But I have a feeling that when it becomes apparent that the plateau is over - then things are going to change really fast.

I would still give it a max 5 years - with drastic changes before 2025. - I.e. a lot of demand destruction.

Realization combined with reality - oh boy are the BAU-boys in for a treat.

[efarmer]

Everybody's doing a brand-new dance, now
(Come on baby, do the Undulation)
I know you'll get to like it if you give it a chance now
(Come on baby, do the Undulation)
My little baby sister can do it with me
It's easier than learning your A-B-C's
So come on, come on, do the Undulation with me
(respectfully borrowed from Goffin and King song Locomotion.)

Lots of horizontal drilling, fracking, extraction and old field
rework stuff on tap to sustain undulation nation, especially
as it gets applied outside the US more widely.

[Hawkcreek]

If I totally ignore the global numbers and look at just my own usage, and that of most of the people I know, it looks like peak to me. Even the young people I know, drive 40 mpg cars, and drive fewer miles than I did at that age.
I use MUCH less oil than I did 10 years ago. I peaked about 2009 (in more ways than one).
Maybe that would be another poll question - Do you use more or less oil than you did 10 years ago?
I realize the concept of Peak is not about personal usage, but production figures. But I will bet a dollar to a doughnut that any production increases are driven more by developing countries than already developed ones.

[GHung]

Since, this time, it isn't oil price dragging the economy down, but other factors killing oil, one needs to look at those other factors. Pretty sure its debt; everything in our global economic mix that can be leveraged, is. Excessive claims on pretty much everything and cheap oil. Kind of sucks when a real bargain comes along and you're in no position to snap it up.

Anyway, Plant's 'oil glut' that didn't matter much will likely become oil contraction, since I doubt economies can again muster the insanity that produced the glut to begin with. Most folks blame China for the Fed not raising interest rates but I suspect there's more to it than that.

Anyone having any good news that matters feel free to post it.

[Tanada]

If I totally ignore the global numbers and look at just my own usage, and that of most of the people I know, it looks like peak to me. Even the young people I know, drive 40 mpg cars, and drive fewer miles than I did at that age.
I use MUCH less oil than I did 10 years ago. I peaked about 2009 (in more ways than one).
Maybe that would be another poll question - Do you use more or less oil than you did 10 years ago?
I realize the concept of Peak is not about personal usage, but production figures. But I will bet a dollar to a doughnut that any production increases are driven more by developing countries than already developed ones.

Agreed by China is still adding somewhere between 18-20 MILLION additional cars to their domestic market in 2015 alone. If they each burn a single gallon per day average that ads up to around 450,000/bbl/d in additional petroleum consumption by China alone. Ad in the new cars in India, Sub-Saharan Africa, South America and anywhere else the economy is growing even a little bit and the 'glut' or 'cushion' or whatever word you choose evaporates in a year or two.

Depending on the rate the fracking bubble contracts in the USA it could be a lot less than two years. USA started contracting about April or May depending on which numbers you use because of the lag between slower drilling and backlogged completions. Nobody knows how fast and how far down the output from USA fracking will be, I have seen numbers anywhere from just 250,000/bbl/d to 1,200,000/bbl/d by June 2016.

Put all that pressure on both ends and even with a slowly growing world economy the low prices won't be around long so enjoy them while they last. We actually briefly dipped under $2.00/gallon briefly in Toledo.

We have slowly clawed our way upward in oil like liquid production over the last decade, investing huge quantities of cash for every slight gain in total fuel increase. As early as two years ago the oil majors started pulling back from the investing front because even the poorest accounting practices could not hide the fact that the return on investment was at or below break even rates. When $105.00/bbl oil does not pay enough to make exploration profitable that means either the price has to go up at least 10 percent, or future production will be cut. When prices fall by 50 percent that means future production falls even further. Only projects nearing completion are worth finishing because of the sunk costs invested, and those projects are in many cases wrapping up about now.

I don't think it will take years for world production to stair step downward, but even if it does with effectively no exploration taking place right now in two, five, eight years down the road there won't be any new identified prospects to drill and test. One of the first things I learned on here way back in 2005 is, it takes the better part of a decade to explore, discover, test drill, develop and bring a new field online producing crude oil. Any year you do not take the first step is a year lost when the crunch happens.

Look at it this way, Conventional C+C plateaued or went into very slow rate growth in 2005. It took four years using existing maps of sweet spots, existing horizontal drilling and fracking all of which were already well developed technologies to create even a small blip in oil production in the later half of 2009. As oil prices rose again from the 2008 crash levels more and more drillers piled into the known tight oil formations in many states across the USA. As a result we came very close to doubling our oil output between 2009 and 2015, but in the process we tested just about every tight hydrocarbon rich formation in the USA. After all that test drilling what did we get? Over 60 percent of the increase came from just five formations, out of the hundreds tested and scores more already known from a century of drilling well logs.

When those 5 formations are played out then what? Even the hyper optimists at EIA said that would be the case by 2021, just six years from today.

Maybe some miracle technology will arrive and provide us synthetic hydrocarbon fuel at a price of $1.00/gallon, but I wouldn't hold my breath waiting. There is no top secret lab where the big oil companies have developed secret technologies that they have kept hidden for the last decade.

[rdberg1957]

The answer that I come to is that something is happening with oil prices, I suspect we are at peak oil, but I don't know. I am a doomer because peak oil is one of a myriad of environmental threats. And there are the economic threats which go with excessive debt. But being a doomer means I know that humans will be extinct relatively soon on a geologic time scale. The planet only has a limited window of time for viability of complex life regardless of human behavior, perhaps a few hundred million years more, perhaps a billion. We are just beginning to know who we are, discovering who our ancestors were. As oil depletes, and forests are razed, and climate changes, and extinctions mount, and acidic oceans support different life, and soil erodes, and fresh water disappears, take your pick which will get us first. Or which combination will provoke a nuclear exchange. Peak oilers haven't been any better at predicting the future than economists. Many have tried to make precise prediction with less than stunning success. I'm thinking that the next 30 years will be increasingly rough, but I don't know which threats will become most prominent first and which will have the greatest impact at which time. I am sure that the converging threats will constrain the options which will promote survival. At some point human efforts to harness energy will create an equilibrium between outer space and Earth, releasing our atmosphere, leaving a dead planet.

[ROCKMAN]

Fortunately for this site we have not yet reach POAPO...Peak Opinions About Peak Oil. LOL.

[dolanbaker]

Opinions are like arseholes, everyone has one.

[Tanada]

This graph from Jean Laherrere pretty much shows the delayed decline we have been talking about since last Thanksgiving.

[Pops]

Here is how IEA sees it...
Supply flattens or falls a little until the surplus clears, price rises, growth resumes.




Seems reasonable ... but here is Jean Laherrere's take on the bacon




The most interesting question, is the peak hidden in the glut?

(Ha, T you beat me to it)

[ennui2]

Fortunately for this site we have not yet reach POAPO...Peak Opinions About Peak Oil. LOL.

That happened a long time ago. Peakers have all pretty much left the building.

[Pops]

What are you talking about?

"Most users ever online was 25466 on Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:22 am"

[davep]

FWIW, I chose "How should I know?" mainly because it's impossible to say until it's in the rear-view mirror.

[ennui2]

What are you talking about?

"Most users ever online was 25466 on Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:22 am"

Unique users or individual hits? There must have been something outside of this site direct-linking that got some traffic to generate numbers like that. At any rate, they're only passive lurkers.

[dolanbaker]

What are you talking about?

"Most users ever online was 25466 on Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:22 am"

Unique users or individual hits? There must have been something outside of this site direct-linking that got some traffic to generate numbers like that. At any rate, they're only passive lurkers.

Passive yes, but possibly learning and forming opinions about peak oil and thinking about how it will affect them.

[Pops]

mos your ennui is not of interest.
Peak oil is something people who come to peakoil.com are interested in.
If you aren't interested, start a thread about how uninterested you are or go away but don't derail the conversation.

[Subjectivist]

Here is how IEA sees it...
Supply flattens or falls a little until the surplus clears, price rises, growth resumes.




Seems reasonable .The most interesting question, is the peak hidden in the glut?

What do you think about the shale loan crisis that seems to be shaping up? If a bunch of these Frackers go broke and can't repay their loans who is going to be doing all that drilling when the price recovers?

I saw an article yesterday on FB about how oil supply is tied to price, but that is a two edged sword. Companies in America work by taking out loans and cycling through using profits to pay off the loans. If all these companies really default on their loans what investment banks will be willing to write loans for Frackers in the future when the price recovers?

http://www.energytrendsinsider.com/2015 ... oil-price/

[dolanbaker]

FWIW, I chose "How should I know?" mainly because it's impossible to say until it's in the rear-view mirror.

I chose yes, but I'm only guessing based on the fact that it is very unlikely that the US will ever throw enough money at the shale oil producers to enable them to ever ramp up production enough to exceed the crest that they have just gone over.
In fact they would have to ramp up a substantial amount to offset the declines elsewhere in the US. As for the rest of the world making up the shortfall, unlikely unless peace breaks out in the Middle East and Iran becomes friends with the west again. A lot of improbables to overcome for this peak to be exceeded.
I could be wrong of course!