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Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 13:55:21

tita wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Conventional oil production rates peaked about 10 years ago.


Mmmmh, No.


Mmmmh, Yes.

Global Conventional Oil Production has been on a "bumpy plateau" of between 72-74 million bbls per day since ca. 2005.

conventional-crude-oil-production

tita wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:The Bakken tight shale play also already peaked in ca. 2015.


So, Bakken may have peaked...


Of course. Every oil field will peak eventually. And, since production in the Bakken peaked in 2015 and then declined, and since it hasn't recovered, it appears the Bakken already peaked in 2015.

tita wrote:Safe to say that on a production rate basis, it's the Permian that leads the dance... And will set the LTO peak.


Exactly right. Thats my point here.

Thats why I started this thread. Conventional oil production has peaked. The Bakken has peaked. And insiders are predicting the Permian will peak ca. 2020-2021.

If conventional oil has already peaked, and LTO oil peaks ca. 2020-21, then that will mark global peak oil.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 16:23:58

world conv crude.gif
world conv crude.gif (28.54 KiB) Viewed 3210 times
The Energy Matters piece says

"That limit was breached in December 2014 with a new high of 74.28 Mbpd."

I have also looked at this and if conventional oil is defined as Euan Mearns defines it and we use annual data then 2016 was the peak at 73.2 Mb/d for conventional output.

It's possible that a large field might decline rapidly, but most supergiant fields at managed very carefully and Canterell is likely to be a special case that is unlikely to be repeated. A peak by 2020 is possible, but I would put it at less than a 5% probability.
My expectation is there is a 50% probability the peak will be between 2025 and 2030 for the 12 month centered average of World C+C output, with a 25% probability it will occur before 2025 and a 25% probability it will occur after 2030, and about a 5% probability it will occur after 2035.

It is simpler to talk about C+C rather than "conventional" oil, much easier to find the data.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 16:36:08

dcoyne78 wrote:
I have also looked at this and if conventional oil is defined as Euan Mearns defines it and we use annual data then 2016 was the peak at 73.2 Mb/d for conventional output.


Sure, that seems reasonable. But the 2016 conventional peak is just slightly higher then the level conventional oil production has been at since 2005. To me it looks like just another bump on the bumpy plateau.

dcoyne78 wrote:It's possible that a large field might decline rapidly, but most supergiant fields at managed very carefully and Canterell is likely to be a special case that is unlikely to be repeated.


I have to disagree with you there. It really doesn't matter how "carefully" a supergiant field is managed-----the rapid declines are a function of the secondary and tertiary recovery technologies that are being used now rather then any carelessness on the part of the operators. For instance, look at Ghawar. Saudi Aramco and their contractors are very carefully injecting sea water into the base of the reservoir, flushing and lifting the oil up to the top where it is produced. By doing this they have been able to sustain production at near peak levels for decades now. But once that water/oil contact rises high enough to reach the producing zones, the rate of oil production is going to decline because there just won't be much recoverable oil left in the reservoir. And, IMHO it will decline very rapidly, just like Cantarell declined very rapidly.


dcoyne78 wrote: A peak by 2020 is possible, but I would put it at less than a 5% probability.
My expectation is there is a 50% probability the peak will be between 2025 and 2030 for the 12 month centered average of World C+C output, with a 25% probability it will occur before 2025 and a 25% probability it will occur after 2030, and about a 5% probability it will occur after 2035..


You may well be right.

I picked the 2020 date for this thread because some industry insiders are now suggesting that the Permian may peak ca. 2020-2021. But I agree with you that the peak could easily come several years later.

Time will tell. CHEERS!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 17:00:47

This graph pretty much sums up the concept of plateau is peak. From 1990-2000 world oil production increased by 7.3 MM/bbl/d from conventional formations. then when prices started doing interesting things production increased another 4.7 MM/bbl/d from 2000 to 2005 for a total growth of 12.1 MM/bbl/d between 1990-2005 from conventional sources.
From 2005 to 2016 despite half that period having high to very high sale prices compared to the previous 15 year period conventional oil production has barely clawed its way up by just over 2 MM/bbl/d while during the same period world consumption has grown in a very robust manner.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 19:48:53

OK, not to hurt the feelings of anyone in particular let me again explain why much of the discussion of conventional vs unconventional oil is wasted space. As pointed out before oil is oil and it doesn't matter if it came from a conventional or unconventional RESERVOIR. A detailed analysis of a sample of 41 API oil would not tell you if it came from a fractured shale reservoir or a high porosity sandstone reservoir: I've produced wells completed in both.

And the C+C numbers for the last 50+ years includes billions of bbls of oil produced from unconventional ("tight", if you prefer) reservoirs. In fact, the vast majority of Permian Basin fields that began producing a half century ago are classified as unconventional/tight reservoirs. And many required frac'ng to produce at economical flow rates. This whole idea that LTO or unconventional oil production is something new is bullsh*t. Don't believe it? Check the distribution of low porosity/low permeability fields in the Permian Basin:

http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volum ... voirs.html

BTW definition of "tight oil" from Schlumberger: Oil found in relatively impermeable reservoir rock. Production of tight oil comes from very low permeability rock that must be stimulated using hydraulic fracturing to create sufficient permeability to allow the mature oil and/or natural gas liquids to flow at economic rates.

Of course all this ignores the fact how relatively unimportant the date of PO, LTO, tight oil, conventional oil, C+C, etc really is .
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 19:58:57

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:The article referenced doesn't claim that global production of oil will peak with the Permian, but then they probably know that the Permian Wolfcamp and Spraberry formations aren't the sum total of light tight oil yet to be produced


Like many people, you don't know even know what peak oil means. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


Now THAT is perhaps the most amusing thing you have written in this thread yet!




Plantagenet wrote:Now some are predicting the Permian tight shale play will also peak in a few years, i.e. ca. 2020-21.

Cheers!


And you figure they are any better at predicting peak than the folks who predicted US peak..in 1919?

You haven't mentioned why the sudden need to troll?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 20:04:30

Plantagenet wrote:Global Conventional Oil Production has been on a "bumpy plateau" of between 72-74 million bbls per day since ca. 2005.

conventional-crude-oil-production


And you and Euan define "conventional" in what way? Because by just defining "conventional" as "whatever we are doing today" you can configure a peak in just that subset of oil about any time you wish. Just look at all the chuckleheads that claimed peak of all oil happened in 2008!

So how is 42 API light sweet crude different between Bakken wells and those from East Texas field? Yates?
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 20:08:00

dcoyne78 wrote:It is simpler to talk about C+C rather than "conventional" oil, much easier to find the data.


That is because Plant can't define "conventional oil" any better than everyone else making it up as they go along.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 20:18:05

Plantagenet wrote:
dcoyne78 wrote:
I have also looked at this and if conventional oil is defined as Euan Mearns defines it and we use annual data then 2016 was the peak at 73.2 Mb/d for conventional output.


Sure, that seems reasonable. But the 2016 conventional peak is just slightly higher then the level conventional oil production has been at since 2005. To me it looks like just another bump on the bumpy plateau.


The word "peak" doesn't allow you any more wiggle room in dodging a decade+ worth of error because you couldn't be bothered to look it up before getting it wrong (so what if the newer number is higher and is therefore a new peak and I've been proven wrong by a decade, looks like just a bump to me!).
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 21:15:32

ROCKMAN wrote:OK, not to hurt the feelings of anyone in particular let me again explain why much of the discussion of conventional vs unconventional oil is wasted space. As pointed out before oil is oil and it doesn't matter if it came from a conventional or unconventional RESERVOIR.


Of course.

But Peak Oil isn't about the kind of reservoir the oil is coming from. Peak Oil is about the maximum rate of global oil production from ALL reservoirs and ALL sources.

The discussion of conventional vs. unconventional reservoirs is simply a way to keep track of the various sources of oil to better facilitate discussion of when each of these various sources might reach their peak and when global peak oil will occur.

Image
Global oil production includes oil from multiple sources. Any consideration of when peak oil will occur must evaluate if and when a peak in production will occur for each of the various oil sources.

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 21:53:47

Plantagenet wrote:But Peak Oil isn't about the kind of reservoir the oil is coming from. Peak Oil is about the maximum rate of global oil production from ALL reservoirs and ALL sources.


Thank you for explaining why the distinction about what is, or is not, conventional, is irrelevant. Start with THINKING about that next time, and you won't get cross threaded with history, facts, industry practice, etc etc, quite so quickly.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 23 Nov 2017, 12:23:30

Is "Peak Permian" only three years away?

OPJ: Is-Peak-Permian-Only-3-Years-Away

"The world’s hottest shale basin, the Permian, is leading the second U.S. wave of tight oil production growth...

However, signs have started to emerge that the relentless intensification of drilling leads to diminishing returns, Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in an article this week. Pumping twice as much sand as usual into Permian wells and drilling longer laterals doesn’t deliver commensurate volumes of oil, Flowers notes.

“Drilling costs rise exponentially with depth, and there’s a suspicion that longer wells are hitting a cost efficiency ceiling,” WoodMac’s chief analyst writes.

Moreover, after the early production-exuberance stage, drillers are now much more focused on delivering profits and higher profit margins. They now favor quality over quantity, and value over volumes.

“Might the Permian be reaching the limits of well size and design? Maybe—as Star Trek’s Scotty might observe of an underwhelming high intensity completion ‘you cannae change the laws of physics, Jim’,” Flowers says.


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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 23 Nov 2017, 15:16:26

P - "The discussion of conventional vs. unconventional reservoirs is simply a way to keep track of the various sources of oil to better facilitate discussion of when each of these various sources might reach their peak and when global peak oil will occur." Exactly correct. Which is why your chart is complete bullsh*t. Much of the "conventional oil" on your chart in 1982 is actually "unconventional oil" as you and others seem to define it. In fact much of the new oil production coming from "unconventional wells" drilled several years ago in the Permian Basin were drilled in fields that have been producing from the same reservoirs for more then 40 years. Did you look at my link? The majority of the 240+ Permian Basin fields that have produced many billions of bbls of oil are tight reservoirs that typically required frac'ng to be produce commercial flow rates. In fact the highest % of PB fields have the lowest porosity and permeability recorded. Something like 80 fields or so from what I remember. Granted the new shales plays in the PB are a different group of "unconventional reservoirs" that doesn't make the tens of thousands of previously developed PB wells conventional.

And again back to your chart: it counts all the production from the Austin Chalk in the 1990's as conventional production. It was the hottest oil play on the planet at that time. And the nature of that reservoir was identical to Eagle Ford Shale except it was made from carbonate mud instead of silicate mud. IOW the horizontally drilled Austin Chalk play was just as "unconventional" as any shale play drilled during the last 10 years.

BTW there have been many thousands of "unconventional wells" drilled decades ago in fractured carbonate shale reservoirs in Mississippi, Alabama, East Texas, etc. In fact, the first commercial NG play in the US was the unconventional New Albany Shale play. In the late 1800's street light in Kentucky were burning New Albany NG. And the play was hot again in the early 2000's when NG prices were booming. That's why I'm familiar with the play...I was drilling it in Kentucky at that time. It's actually more "unconventional" then the shales being drilled to day. It does contain free NG in fractures. The methane molecules are absorbed onto the organic material in the shales. As the water is produces from the formation the pressure is reduced. This destabilizes the molecules and the methane is released. So actually over time production actually increases as more NG is produced. These are not big wells: typically 100 mcf/day or less. But there have been thousands of wells that have produces such so flows for 60+ years. The biggest hindrance to development is that low pressure gathering systems are required. And they aren't built unless hundreds of new wells are drilled. Ad no one drills unless a low pressure gathering system is in place. There are many TCF of NG locked up in the NAS in Kentucky but the state still has to import supplies.

Likewise for the Marcellus Shale. While hz drilling has made the trend boom recently it had been producing a small amount of commercial NG for decades from vertical wells.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 23 Nov 2017, 17:15:18

ROCKMAN wrote:....your chart is complete bullsh*t.


It isn't my chart. It's Gail Tverberg's chart. Thats pretty clear if you actually look at it, because it has her name on it.

ROCKMAN wrote: Granted the new shales plays in the PB are a different group of "unconventional reservoirs" that doesn't make the tens of thousands of previously developed PB wells conventional.


The point of Gail's plot is that tight oil shale reservoirs are supplying millions of barrels of oil to the global oil market. You can disagree with her use of the term "unconventional oil" for oil from tight shale oil reservoirs, but that terminology is in common use now.

You are absolutely right that many wells drilled before the 1990s involved horizontal drilling and fracking. But none of these efforts produced millions of barrels of oil per day---they were interesting but not terribly important to global oil markets. Yes, fracking was done in many of these wells, but fracking back in the day often consisted of setting off small explosive charges in a well. That is a totally different technique then modern hydraulic fracking.

It wasn't until the 1990s that hydraulic fracking began to be used in places like the Austin Chalk. You are right that the Austin Chalk work included horizontal wells and hydraulic fracking, but the Austin Chalk is not shale, and the wells were short and the pumps not very powerful and too little oil was produced to affect global markets.

It wasn't a game changer.

wiki/Hydraulic_fracturing

The game changer was fracking of tight shale oil reservoirs, and the term "unconventional oil" is often used today to refer to oil obtained using modern hydraulic fracking on tight shale oil reservoirs.

IMHO its not unreasonable to break out tight shale oil reservoirs in this way, because the development of shale reservoirs has led to the production of millions of barrels of oil per day. The huge amount of oil coming from tight shale oil is why it is useful to break tight shale oil out as a separate category of oil production (i.e. unconventional oil), and why its useful and informative to show shale oil as a separate category labeled "unconventional" oil on Gail's plot.

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Happy Thanksgiving to you and your homies.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 23 Nov 2017, 17:25:35

Plantagenet wrote:It wasn't until the 1990s that hydraulic fracking began to be used in places like the Austin Chalk.


And the 1970's when it was being used in the Devonian Shales of Ohio. And we aren't talking about torpedoes, but multi-stage slickwater hydraulic fracturing, sometimes cross linked, sometimes not. Sort of like...you know...what Pioneer is doing right now in the Wolfcamp benches in the Midland Basin.

Plantagenet wrote:You are right that the Austin Chalk work included horizontal wells and hydraulic fracking, but the Austin Chalk is not shale, and the wells were short and the pumps not very powerful and too little oil was produced to affect global markets.

It wasn't a game changer.


Fortunate then that "game changer" is not a requirement of any word involving conventional or unconventional either then.

Plantagenet wrote:The game changer was fracking of tight shale oil reservoirs, and the term "unconventional oil" is often used today to refer to oil obtained using modern hydraulic fracking on tight shale oil reservoirs.


Here is the EIA description of hydraulic fracturing.


EIA TIE Article wrote:Hydraulic fracturing involves forcing a liquid (primarily water) under high pressure from a wellbore against a rock formation until it fractures. The fracture lengthens as the high-pressure liquid in the wellbore flows into the formation. This injected liquid contains a proppant, or small, solid particles (usually sand or a manmade granular solid of similar size) that fills the expanding fracture. When the injection is stopped and the high pressure is reduced, the formation attempts to settle back into its original configuration, but the proppant keeps the fracture open. This allows hydrocarbons such as crude oil and natural gas to flow from the rock formation back to the wellbore and then to the surface.

EIA Hydraulic Fracturing


How is this procedure, exactly what was being done back in the 1970's in the shales of the Appalachian basin, not modern?
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 24 Nov 2017, 17:51:22

IHS backs Pioneer's estimate of 60-70 Billions Bbls of recoverable oil in Permian Basin, worth 3.3 trillion at today's prices

permian-super-basin-holds-up-to-3-3-trillion-in-untapped-oil

IHS spent three years studying output data from more than 440,000 wells to calculate the amount of crude remaining within the sprawling, mile-thick rock formation that pumps more oil than any other U.S. field, the London-based researcher said in a statement on Monday. The estimate may grow as IHS geologists and data scientists extend their analytical techniques to deeper geological zones.

“The Permian Basin is America’s super basin in terms of its oil and gas production history and for operators it presents a significant variety of stacked targets that are profitable at today’s oil prices,” Prithiraj Chungkham, director of unconventional resources for IHS, said in the statement.

The assessment may boost Pioneer Natural Resources Co. Chairman Scott Sheffield’s claim that the Permian is a 75 billion-barrel field that may rival Saudi Arabia’s massive Ghawar field.


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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 24 Nov 2017, 20:19:33

This BS is soooo exhausting.

Plant, "60-70 Billions Bbls of recoverable oil in Permian Basin, worth 3.3 trillion at today's prices" you should know better, especially you. Really?

Recoverable is no measure of reserves, and reserves are meaningless without a specific price point. Then of course that price point is an assumed market price, doesn't include the effort to actually drill through dozens of strata all at different angles/planes to find the sweet spot.
Permian Giant Oil Field Would Lose $500 Billion At Today’s Prices
Did you hear about the largest U.S. oil and gas field that’s in the Permian basin of west Texas?

That’s the one that’s not a field because it hasn’t been discovered yet. That’s the one whose 20 billion barrels are an estimate by the U.S. Geological Survey. That’s the one whose 20 billion barrels would lose $500 billion at today’s oil prices.

Okay, excuse me, I know the article is outdated . . . there will be SOME oil at $50. But not much. The smart folks learned their lessons back during the Bakken. . . you go broke/into massive debt under $70. Will the suckers be fooled again? Only AdamB knows for sure lol
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 24 Nov 2017, 20:36:24

pstarr wrote:
Plant, "60-70 Billions Bbls of recoverable oil in Permian Basin, worth 3.3 trillion at today's prices" you should know better, especially you. Really?

Recoverable is no measure of reserves, and reserves are meaningless without a specific price point.


The price point IHS used in their study is today's prices. The new IHS report says 60-70 BILLION bbls of oil are recoverable from the Permian Basin at today's prices.

pstarr wrote:That’s the one whose 20 billion barrels are an estimate by the U.S. Geological Survey. l


The USGS estimate of 20 billion barrels is for just one tight shale layer in the Permian Basin. But there are multiple productive layers of tight shale in the basin. When you add them all together you get the 60-70 billion bbls estimate that first Pioneer and now IHS are saying is there in the Permian Basin. AND IHS think there might be even more oil there, if additional, deeper shale layers also prove to be productive.

Cheers!

Image
There are multiple tight shale oil layers in the Permian Basin that can potentially produce tight oil
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 24 Nov 2017, 21:40:55

The 20 billion barrel assessment was for the Wolfcamp in the Midland sub basin ONLY! It explicitly did NOT include the Wolfcamp in the much larger Delaware sub basin.
The Spraberry assessment in the Midland sub basin was for an additional 4 billion barrels.

When all is said and done, including the various trends in south east New Mexico, the USGS assessments may approach 100 billion barrels.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby GHung » Fri 24 Nov 2017, 22:18:05

coffeeguyzz wrote:The 20 billion barrel assessment was for the Wolfcamp in the Midland sub basin ONLY! It explicitly did NOT include the Wolfcamp in the much larger Delaware sub basin.
The Spraberry assessment in the Midland sub basin was for an additional 4 billion barrels.

When all is said and done, including the various trends in south east New Mexico, the USGS assessments may approach 100 billion barrels.


You seem so exited. Good for you!
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