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Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 15 May 2018, 21:12:57

Objects don't care where oil comes from for obvious reasons, but those who pay do. That's because the deeper or dirtier the oil, the more processing needed, and that means higher costs. If costs are too high, then some goods and services are sacrificed for those that are needed more, and that affects economies that require increasing sales of goods and services.

Given that, the best-case scenario will involve every society returning to basic needs until the global population levels off. That's best-case because it assumes that the effects of environmental damage plus global warming will be minimized, that the global population won't rise further, that everyone (that means including the rich) will easily agree to much simpler lives (e.g., no more Internet, cars, etc.), that all military forces will stand down, etc.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 16 May 2018, 12:14:39

ralfy wrote:Objects don't care where oil comes from for obvious reasons, but those who pay do. That's because the deeper or dirtier the oil, the more processing needed, and that means higher costs. If costs are too high, then some goods and services are sacrificed for those that are needed more, and that affects economies that require increasing sales of goods and services.

Sure. However, looking at oil prices since the early 70's, global oil supply and demand differentials clearly have a MUCH higher impact on the price of oil than relative costs of extraction.

When it's relatively scarce, for whatever reason, the masses pay much higher prices to obtain it -- perhaps whining a lot, but still paying it. In economics terms, that's called highly inelastic demand.

And now that access to truly high mileage, efficient vehicles is becoming more common, I guess we'll get to see how much the relative cost/efficiency really matters.

Clearly in the US, where giant trucks and SUV's continue to be in very high demand and efficient HEV's and PHEV's and tiny high mileage ICE's not so much (Ford stopping production of almost all sedans as a recent example), despite all the claims around here to the contrary, gasoline prices aren't at the forefront of peoples' minds, or we'd be seeing a strong push in the other direction.

People do better re efficiency in Europe. Of course, they have meaningful fuel taxes, and we can't do THAT in the US, as someone might not get elected. :roll:

And in the third world where lots of truly poor people live, there is a lot more biking, walking, using scooters, using buses, etc. already. The people buying cars are generally within the middle class (or above) sphere of wealth.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Darian S » Fri 18 May 2018, 20:50:45

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
ralfy wrote:Objects don't care where oil comes from for obvious reasons, but those who pay do. That's because the deeper or dirtier the oil, the more processing needed, and that means higher costs. If costs are too high, then some goods and services are sacrificed for those that are needed more, and that affects economies that require increasing sales of goods and services.

Sure. However, looking at oil prices since the early 70's, global oil supply and demand differentials clearly have a MUCH higher impact on the price of oil than relative costs of extraction.

When it's relatively scarce, for whatever reason, the masses pay much higher prices to obtain it -- perhaps whining a lot, but still paying it. In economics terms, that's called highly inelastic demand.

And now that access to truly high mileage, efficient vehicles is becoming more common, I guess we'll get to see how much the relative cost/efficiency really matters.

Clearly in the US, where giant trucks and SUV's continue to be in very high demand and efficient HEV's and PHEV's and tiny high mileage ICE's not so much (Ford stopping production of almost all sedans as a recent example), despite all the claims around here to the contrary, gasoline prices aren't at the forefront of peoples' minds, or we'd be seeing a strong push in the other direction.

People do better re efficiency in Europe. Of course, they have meaningful fuel taxes, and we can't do THAT in the US, as someone might not get elected. :roll:

And in the third world where lots of truly poor people live, there is a lot more biking, walking, using scooters, using buses, etc. already. The people buying cars are generally within the middle class (or above) sphere of wealth.


A large chunk of america is one check away, medical emergency, etc away from being unable to make ends meet.
?

Have you seen the retail apocalypse, the homeless camps?
Just 39% of Americans say they have enough savings to cover a $1,000 emergency room visit or car repair.-marketwatch

Don't think that a few 100$ more in gas can't put a strain on their way of life(keep in mind if a couple has two gas guzzlers, the gas cost can be significant if even 1000$ is too much for them). And this is seen by reduced economic activity, cutting expenses here and there.

Cooked numbers can't hide reality.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 20 May 2018, 19:27:25

Darian S wrote:A large chunk of america is one check away, medical emergency, etc away from being unable to make ends meet.
...

Just 39% of Americans say they have enough savings to cover a $1,000 emergency room visit or car repair.-marketwatch

And for how many decades has this basic state of affairs (many, if not most Americans don't bother to save any where near enough money to have good control over their financial life)?

Certainly since before the 70's, which is as long as I've been paying attention. So why is now suddenly different?

Cooked numbers can't hide reality.

Ah, yes. If fast crash doomers' predictions are wrong, then it must be "crooked numbers", since zerohedge nonsense doesn't reflect factual reality. When that's what you have to resort to, its obvious you're desperate.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 20 May 2018, 19:48:28

Darian S wrote:A large chunk of america is one check away, medical emergency, etc away from being unable to make ends meet.
?

Have you seen the retail apocalypse, the homeless camps?
Just 39% of Americans say they have enough savings to cover a $1,000 emergency room visit or car repair.-marketwatch

Don't think that a few 100$ more in gas can't put a strain on their way of life(keep in mind if a couple has two gas guzzlers, the gas cost can be significant if even 1000$ is too much for them). And this is seen by reduced economic activity, cutting expenses here and there.

Cooked numbers can't hide reality.

Crude oil went from $30 in 2004 and stayed (on average) $100/ for 7 years. During that time the average American lost $2,000 per year in excess gasoline costs. Price per gallon went from $1.50 to $3.50

And these wealthy cornies don't see a problem with that. They can't imagine (living in their guilded suburban cages) how most Americans live . . . . and how gasoline is a make or break commodity for the rest of us.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 21 May 2018, 00:18:16

pstarr wrote:And these wealthy cornies don't see a problem with that. They can't imagine (living in their guilded suburban cages) how most Americans live . . . . and how gasoline is a make or break commodity for the rest of us.


"most Americans"? Could you possibly sling any more vague generalizations around?
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 21 May 2018, 02:41:37

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:And these wealthy cornies don't see a problem with that. They can't imagine (living in their guilded suburban cages) how most Americans live . . . . and how gasoline is a make or break commodity for the rest of us.


"most Americans"? Could you possibly sling any more vague generalizations around?

Given that the median household income is over $59,000 (as of 2016), the idea he keeps pushing that most Americans are in relative poverty, is absurd.

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-censu ... ome-2017-9

Just like his frequently repeating that most Americans are having problems affording gasoline.

People in third world countries making under $10 a day, sure. But that isn't most Americans. That isn't even remotely Americans making minimum wage.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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