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Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 18:46:41

tita wrote:Wow, oil rig count increases by 12, with 18 new rigs just for the permian... which indeed means 6 less rigs for the others basins. Although prices are at their highest levels since 2014, there is not much increase of interest outside the permian.


Yup.

Thats just what I've been saying.

The Bakken and every other TOS play in the USA except the Permian have already peaked. The only US TOS play left that can increase oil production is the Permian. And analysts say even the Permian is going to peak in ca. 2020.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 21:35:07

Remember that a vast amount of the shales in North America are gas prone. The actual liquids windows are relatively narrow. As a result if oil prices rise and gas prices don't there is not going to be a sudden rise in activity except in the select areas where the liquid yield is high enough to offset the costs of drilling for cheap gas. Notwithstanding, you also have to remember that companies want to see a sustained price before they react, budgets are set on that. There is much less knee jerk reaction in the industry than you would think
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 18:09:51

Decline rates from current oil production are now the highest in 25 years

oil-demand-beware-the-gap

Partly this is due to the fact that TOS has very high decline rates, and partly due to the fact that the legacy fields around the world are declining rapidly as they age.

Higher decline rates just make it all the more difficult to continue growing global oil production to meet growing global oil demand, as new oil production must grow both to meet rising demand AND to replace existing production lost to declines of 3-6% and higher each year.

Eventually this will lead to a peak in global oil production.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby dissident » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 23:08:56

Plantagenet wrote:Decline rates from current oil production are now the highest in 25 years

oil-demand-beware-the-gap

Partly this is due to the fact that TOS has very high decline rates, and partly due to the fact that the legacy fields around the world are declining rapidly as they age.

Higher decline rates just make it all the more difficult to continue growing global oil production to meet growing global oil demand, as new oil production must grow both to meet rising demand AND to replace existing production lost to declines of 3-6% and higher each year.

Eventually this will lead to a peak in global oil production.

Cheers!


The current plateau will end with a violent crash. The rate of maximal contact drilling is sucking out the last dregs of accessible oil resources. Given the lack of any substantial discoveries of new reserves, this implies a rapid decline. New discoveries are needed to broaden the production curve after peak. This ain't happening.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 31 Jan 2018, 00:21:21

The rate of maximal contact drilling is sucking out the last dregs of accessible oil resources. Given the lack of any substantial discoveries of new reserves, this implies a rapid decline. New discoveries are needed to broaden the production curve after peak.


Well first off, maximum reservoir contact wells refers to what some people call "fish scale" wells where there is a main hole with a number of lateral wells which kick off along the length of the main well. They were pioneered in Saudi Arabia in horizontal wells and have been used in Malaysia in vertical holes but they are not widely used (if at all) in unconventional wells that require fracking simply because the isolation of pressure into individual sidetracks is technically challenging and expensive.

Also current recovery factor in the shales is somewhere between 3% and 8% compared to conventional reservoirs with Tertiary recoveries that can exceed 70%. It doesn't require much improvement in recovery factor to gain a lot of reserves.

Also I have explained elsewhere where what you read about Reserves almost always refers to Proven Reserves. Without knowing how much Probable and Possible and Contingent Resources are associated with various pools it is impossible to predict when full depletion will occur. This is why companies can replace their reserves year on year....simply moving categories as they drill more wells or complete more standing wells.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 31 Jan 2018, 22:36:05

MIT study warns that EIA estimates of future productivity from TOS wells are too optimistic.

mit-researchers-us-oil-production-estimates-may-be-too-optimistic

The MIT researchers are highlighting the same issue that I've discussed earlier in this thread, i.e. that drillers in the Bakken, Permian Basin, and other TOS regions are drilling the "sweet spots" first. Wells in these areas are significantly more productive then wells drilled in the remaining lower quality areas of these shale basins.

This problem will make it harder in the future to maintain oil production from TOS, and make it more likely that areas like the Permian Basin will peak earlier then the EIA has been predicting.

CHEERS!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 06:16:56

Saw that PXD was divesting from all other basins besides the Permian.

https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Pioneer+Natural+Resources+%28PXD%29+to+Divest+South+Texas%2C+Raton+and+West+Panhandle+Assets/13772483.html

Timothy L. Dove, President and CEO, stated “I want to personally thank all of our South Texas, Raton and West Panhandle employees for their commitment and dedication to the continuing strong performance of these assets. They have created significant value for our shareholders over the many years we have owned these assets. After these divestitures are completed, Pioneer’s operations will be solely in the Permian Basin.”
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby MD » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 12:28:37

peak. who cares about peak. it's not about peak. it's about resource management, and we the people are terrible at that.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Darian S » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 13:00:10

A switch to renewables would require massive improvement in battery tech, perhaps ones using oxygen from air. Likely decades away.

But I believe artificial leaf tech is far more promising and probably the only realistic solution if peak was actually near. Word is theyve currently reached 10% efficiency surpassing all known plants, even sugar cane at 8%. If manufacturing costs can be brought down and efficiency increased they would make batteries unecessary.

Depending on time to peak we may need a Manhattan like project to accelerate their technological development.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen 2020s

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 21 Feb 2018, 20:02:53

Oil analyst Robert Rapier is now singing my song..i.e. US TOS will peak in the 2020s.

robert-rapier-peak-oil-in-four-years

Rapier believes the peak will happen because of limits in infrastructure...i.e. pipelines won't get built fast enough or we'll run out of sand for fracking or something like that. That is certainly possible......particularly the lack of sand. Lets call it...."Peak Sand."

In fact, one of the best stock market investments has been investing in sand companies rather then oil companies. You can make a lot of money investing in Sand-----

Cheers!

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As we approach peak sand in the US, sand companies are going to do very well.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 21 Feb 2018, 23:59:53

That is certainly possible......particularly the lack of sand. Lets call it...."Peak Sand."


the cost for ceramic propant materials are steadily dropping. There are a number of service companies who believe that there is a good chance ceramic propants will put sand mining companies out of business in the not too distant future. Using local clay to manufacture ceramic propants in the areas nearby fracking operations will substantially drop the cost and as sand becomes more difficult to obtain the price will rise until it becomes more expensive than it ceramic counterpart.
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Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil in the 2020s

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 00:19:12

rockdoc123 wrote:the cost for ceramic propant materials are steadily dropping. There are a number of service companies who believe that there is a good chance ceramic propants will put sand mining companies out of business in the not too distant future. Using local clay to manufacture ceramic propants in the areas nearby fracking operations will substantially drop the cost and as sand becomes more difficult to obtain the price will rise until it becomes more expensive than it ceramic counterpart.


local clay? Hahahahaha! You say the funniest things.

If you're after cheap proppant then the cheapest ceramic proppant comes from China! Its manufactured in CHINA using CHINESE CLAY and then SHIPPED SIX THOUSAND MILES ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND THROUGH THE PANAMA CANEL TO THE US. Even after all that shipping Chinese proppant is undercutting Carbo Ceramics----the main US manufacturer.

Get it now?

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Chinese proppant---the cheapest alternative to sand for fracking
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil in the 2020s

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 14:59:42

Plantagenet wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:the cost for ceramic propant materials are steadily dropping. There are a number of service companies who believe that there is a good chance ceramic propants will put sand mining companies out of business in the not too distant future. Using local clay to manufacture ceramic propants in the areas nearby fracking operations will substantially drop the cost and as sand becomes more difficult to obtain the price will rise until it becomes more expensive than it ceramic counterpart.


local clay? Hahahahaha! You say the funniest things.

If you're after cheap proppant then the cheapest ceramic proppant comes from China! Its manufactured in CHINA using CHINESE CLAY and then SHIPPED SIX THOUSAND MILES ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND THROUGH THE PANAMA CANEL TO THE US. Even after all that shipping Chinese proppant is undercutting Carbo Ceramics----the main US manufacturer.

Get it now?

Image
Chinese proppant---the cheapest alternative to sand for fracking

So it's clay (to make ceramic) vs. sand, which is what rockdoc123 said.

The key thing is that the cries of "peak sand" doom look wrong, given that clay is super common. (I have LOTS of it in my yard below the topsoil, unfortunately).

Whether Chinese brand X or local brand Y or Z is used is pretty much beside the point. And price competition, cost of fuel, etc. could change who can and will offer clay derived proppant at the lowest price, over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 19:04:45

local clay? Hahahahaha! You say the funniest things.

If you're after cheap proppant then the cheapest ceramic proppant comes from China! Its manufactured in CHINA using CHINESE CLAY and then SHIPPED SIX THOUSAND MILES ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND THROUGH THE PANAMA CANEL TO THE US. Even after all that shipping Chinese proppant is undercutting Carbo Ceramics----the main US manufacturer.


and what is being postulated is that by using a source immediately proximal to on-going fracking the cost for ceramic propant drops considerably. As with all manufacturing once up and running those costs will continue to decrease for sometime. So whereas it might be cheaper to import now those costs do not offset the advantage of sand...what is postulated is that the costs will drop below any other source.

Get it now? :roll:
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 19:59:30

This does raise the question of just how much fracking are the Chinese doing in their own territories?
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 21:14:40

This does raise the question of just how much fracking are the Chinese doing in their own territories?


they produced 8 billion cubic metres of gas from shale formations last year. So that is 282 BCF over the year or 772 MMcf/d. If you assume typical average rates from shale wells (mixing together new wells and old wells) of lets say for arguments sake 200 Mcf/d that's around 3900 wells producing. How many are new wells which would require fracking .....not sure there is a way to guess at that.
The Chinese have as a goal 30 billion cubic metres of gas produced from shales as a target so that would be a lot of new fracking.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 21:47:48

what is being postulated is that by using a source immediately proximal to on-going fracking the cost for ceramic propant drops considerably.


Yes, but back here in the real world the CHINESE are selling their proppant cheaper then US manufacturers can sell their proppant, even though US manufacturers are using clay sources in the US and Chinese manufacturers are using chinese clay and chinese factories and then shipping it thousands of miles to the USA. Chinese proppant prices are so low that some US manufacturers claim the Chinese are selling into the US market at below their production costs to driven the US manufacturers out of business.

carbo-ceo-takes-aim-at-low-price-chinese-proppants

Thats the SECOND time I've had to explain this simple idea to you.

Its a very simple concept. Chinese proppant is cheaper then US proppant.

Do you get it now?

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 21:56:31

Thats the SECOND time I've had to explain this simple idea to you.

Its a very simple concept. Chinese proppant is cheaper then US proppant


are you really this thick or is it that you never read my post or that of outcast_searcher?
No one was talking about the situation at this minute but rather in the future.
I realize we have to speak extremely slowly with you ...but...the cost for ceramics locally manufactured in the US are dropping (that is well documented)....as sand becomes more expensive due to lack of supply that will allow for further drop in costs associated with manufacture of ceramics. Locating it all in the immediate area of the on-going fracking drops the cost substantially by eliminating transport costs and at some point it will be much lower than importing it from China. It is that simple.

So it doesn't matter if all the ceramics come from China at this point, they won't in the future when sand becomes more expensive.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 22:48:13

rockdoc123 wrote:No one was talking about the situation at this minute but rather in the future.


I didn't realize you' were a time traveller from the future.

Its very kind of you to share with us all your knowledge of what will happen in the future.

Thanks for that (and for making me laugh out loud again!)

Image
So you're from the future? Wow! And you've travelled back in time to tell us about the price of proppants in the future? A-maz-ing! :lol: :-D :) :P 8)

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 23:34:33

I didn't realize you' were a time traveller from the future.

Its very kind of you to share with us all your knowledge of what will happen in the future.


Your ridiculous comments here do not somehow make you look intelligent regardless of what you might think. They serve to make you look foolish and it begs the question why you continue to do so?
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