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Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 18:46:41

tita wrote:Wow, oil rig count increases by 12, with 18 new rigs just for the permian... which indeed means 6 less rigs for the others basins. Although prices are at their highest levels since 2014, there is not much increase of interest outside the permian.


Yup.

Thats just what I've been saying.

The Bakken and every other TOS play in the USA except the Permian have already peaked. The only US TOS play left that can increase oil production is the Permian. And analysts say even the Permian is going to peak in ca. 2020.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 21:35:07

Remember that a vast amount of the shales in North America are gas prone. The actual liquids windows are relatively narrow. As a result if oil prices rise and gas prices don't there is not going to be a sudden rise in activity except in the select areas where the liquid yield is high enough to offset the costs of drilling for cheap gas. Notwithstanding, you also have to remember that companies want to see a sustained price before they react, budgets are set on that. There is much less knee jerk reaction in the industry than you would think
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 18:09:51

Decline rates from current oil production are now the highest in 25 years

oil-demand-beware-the-gap

Partly this is due to the fact that TOS has very high decline rates, and partly due to the fact that the legacy fields around the world are declining rapidly as they age.

Higher decline rates just make it all the more difficult to continue growing global oil production to meet growing global oil demand, as new oil production must grow both to meet rising demand AND to replace existing production lost to declines of 3-6% and higher each year.

Eventually this will lead to a peak in global oil production.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby dissident » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 23:08:56

Plantagenet wrote:Decline rates from current oil production are now the highest in 25 years

oil-demand-beware-the-gap

Partly this is due to the fact that TOS has very high decline rates, and partly due to the fact that the legacy fields around the world are declining rapidly as they age.

Higher decline rates just make it all the more difficult to continue growing global oil production to meet growing global oil demand, as new oil production must grow both to meet rising demand AND to replace existing production lost to declines of 3-6% and higher each year.

Eventually this will lead to a peak in global oil production.

Cheers!


The current plateau will end with a violent crash. The rate of maximal contact drilling is sucking out the last dregs of accessible oil resources. Given the lack of any substantial discoveries of new reserves, this implies a rapid decline. New discoveries are needed to broaden the production curve after peak. This ain't happening.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 31 Jan 2018, 00:21:21

The rate of maximal contact drilling is sucking out the last dregs of accessible oil resources. Given the lack of any substantial discoveries of new reserves, this implies a rapid decline. New discoveries are needed to broaden the production curve after peak.


Well first off, maximum reservoir contact wells refers to what some people call "fish scale" wells where there is a main hole with a number of lateral wells which kick off along the length of the main well. They were pioneered in Saudi Arabia in horizontal wells and have been used in Malaysia in vertical holes but they are not widely used (if at all) in unconventional wells that require fracking simply because the isolation of pressure into individual sidetracks is technically challenging and expensive.

Also current recovery factor in the shales is somewhere between 3% and 8% compared to conventional reservoirs with Tertiary recoveries that can exceed 70%. It doesn't require much improvement in recovery factor to gain a lot of reserves.

Also I have explained elsewhere where what you read about Reserves almost always refers to Proven Reserves. Without knowing how much Probable and Possible and Contingent Resources are associated with various pools it is impossible to predict when full depletion will occur. This is why companies can replace their reserves year on year....simply moving categories as they drill more wells or complete more standing wells.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 31 Jan 2018, 22:36:05

MIT study warns that EIA estimates of future productivity from TOS wells are too optimistic.

mit-researchers-us-oil-production-estimates-may-be-too-optimistic

The MIT researchers are highlighting the same issue that I've discussed earlier in this thread, i.e. that drillers in the Bakken, Permian Basin, and other TOS regions are drilling the "sweet spots" first. Wells in these areas are significantly more productive then wells drilled in the remaining lower quality areas of these shale basins.

This problem will make it harder in the future to maintain oil production from TOS, and make it more likely that areas like the Permian Basin will peak earlier then the EIA has been predicting.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 06:16:56

Saw that PXD was divesting from all other basins besides the Permian.

https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Pioneer+Natural+Resources+%28PXD%29+to+Divest+South+Texas%2C+Raton+and+West+Panhandle+Assets/13772483.html

Timothy L. Dove, President and CEO, stated “I want to personally thank all of our South Texas, Raton and West Panhandle employees for their commitment and dedication to the continuing strong performance of these assets. They have created significant value for our shareholders over the many years we have owned these assets. After these divestitures are completed, Pioneer’s operations will be solely in the Permian Basin.”
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby MD » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 12:28:37

peak. who cares about peak. it's not about peak. it's about resource management, and we the people are terrible at that.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Darian S » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 13:00:10

A switch to renewables would require massive improvement in battery tech, perhaps ones using oxygen from air. Likely decades away.

But I believe artificial leaf tech is far more promising and probably the only realistic solution if peak was actually near. Word is theyve currently reached 10% efficiency surpassing all known plants, even sugar cane at 8%. If manufacturing costs can be brought down and efficiency increased they would make batteries unecessary.

Depending on time to peak we may need a Manhattan like project to accelerate their technological development.
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