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Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 13:50:55

Plantagenet wrote:I wish you guys would stop quarreling and just post about the thread topic. Come on---lets talk peak oil!

Rockdoc the self-professed Dr. of Oil is the prime opponent of ETP. He argues that it is impossible,and even pointless theory. He refutes the resulting model. He questions whether oil production net-energy (total useful energy that is returned from the production system) actually declines.

Dr. Oil questions whether such declines can be extrapolated from water cuts increases and source-rock permeability declines. Without critiquing nor defending the original thesis. He calls others who are interested in the Etp stupid and wrong.

Yet in his next breath Dr. Oil supports carbon sequestration as a carbon neutral solution for CO emissions. The guy is obviously a brain neutral.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 14:12:47

Of course you are right, Peter, but there is no point arguing with a troll like crockdoc. We all do it---but it doesn't go anywhere. HAVE A GREAT DAY!
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 14:27:23

Plantagenet wrote:Of course you are right, Peter, but there is no point arguing with a troll like crockdoc. We all do it---but it doesn't go anywhere. HAVE A GREAT DAY!

You have a Great Day also, and . . .

Cheers :roll:
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 14:31:44

No one expects much production growth from the Bakken and Eagle Ford anymore, but the Permian is expected to grow and grow and grow. Oil Market projections call for US oil projection to double....and its almost all is supposed to come from the Permian

just-how-dependent-oil-markets-are-on-tight-oil-delivering

So the whole game for US TOS shale is now the Permian. And if the Permian peaks the way the Bakken and Eagle Ford have done----then there isn't another Permian out there. It will be all downhill from there for US TOS production, just like its already downhill for global conventional oil production.

If the world doesn't find a new source of oil then it will be.....wait for it...... peak oil.

Remember peak oil? Its still coming.....its just been delayed about 15-20 years by the unexpected oil production from US TOS.

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 15:32:32

Plantagenet wrote:I wish you guys would stop quarreling and just post about the thread topic. Come on---lets talk peak oil!


We did. When it happened globally in 1979, and then again in 2000, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2015. You mean you MISSED IT!!!!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 15:41:54

Plantagenet wrote:Remember peak oil? Its still coming.....its just been delayed about 15-20 years by the unexpected oil production from US TOS.

Cheers!


Really? So then it looks like the EIA estimates from the early 2000's were the best guess at the time, I believe their date was 2037. Boy were all those amateurs pretty stupid, declaring it all those other times!!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 16:18:26

Rockdoc the self-professed Dr. of Oil is the prime opponent of ETP. He argues that it is impossible,and even pointless theory. He refutes the resulting model. He questions whether oil production net-energy (total useful energy that is returned from the production system) actually declines.


What I have said about ETP is it makes assumptions that are not true, and it is meaningless given decisions made on Energy are based on economics and that is tempered by supply and demand. There is a perfectly good theory that has worked to predict the swings in oil prices for decades and it is what oil companies use to temper their activities. I haven’t questioned anything about “net energy” because I really don’t care….it doesn’t govern the oil and gas business, never has and never will. And my opinion on this is backed up by literally thousands of oil executives and analysts around the world.

Dr. Oil questions whether such declines can be extrapolated from water cuts increases and source-rock permeability declines. Without critiquing nor defending the original thesis. He calls others who are interested in the Etp stupid and wrong.


You and Short understand virtually nothing about petroleum geology/engineering yet you make stupid comments like this that merely serve to demonstrate you haven’t a clue. Water cuts are not increasing around the world….there is no data to support that notion and it is stupid to begin with given much of the worlds production does not have a strong natural water drive nor is it under water injection drive. And high water cut says nothing about remaining reserves as both Rockman and I have pointed out. You can have 90% water production from a reservoir right at the beginning of production with nearly zero depletion, it is a product of permeability anisotropy and perforation standoff. You can have very high water cut in a reservoir under artificial water injection if there are layers of high permeability or fractures and that with very high remaining reserves.
Source-rock permeability decline….WTF? Are you that naive that you just make jargon up and expect people to respect you for it? How exactly does permeability decline and especially so in a source rock? You can’t even have an intelligent conversation with this extreme lack of understanding of the subject matter :roll:

Yet in his next breath Dr. Oil supports carbon sequestration as a carbon neutral solution for CO emissions. The guy is obviously a brain neutral.


What exactly does one have to do with the other and how does one fly in the face of the other? They don’t, they are totally unrelated which you would understand if you had any idea whatsoever about the subject matter. Many oil companies that think AGW theory is over the top and that carbon taxes etc are counterproductive to the economy still look towards CO2 sequestration as a means of lightening their legal burden through carbon credits. This is the reason Saudi Arabia is doing so, they’ve said exactly that in the press and a number of publications. Oil companies do what regulations require them to, whether they agree with them or not. Philosophy has nothing to do with it.

I think its time you change your moniker to pbrain rather than pstarr
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 19:09:44

AdamB wrote: So then it looks like the EIA estimates from the early 2000's were the best guess at the time....


Not really.

If you go back and look at the EIA estimates from the early 2000s they thought that conventional oil production could grow for decades more, and they also missed the importance of TOS. They were wrong on both counts.

Cheers!

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Over the years the EIA has done a remarkably poor job of predicting the future of global oil markets
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 13 Dec 2017, 21:58:57

http://peakoil.com/consumption/eia-bashers-should-check-their-own-numbers


EIA bashers should check their own numbers.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby tita » Fri 15 Dec 2017, 09:01:53

rockdoc123 wrote:
http://peakoil.com/consumption/eia-bashers-should-check-their-own-numbers


EIA bashers should check their own numbers.

EIA does a great job in collecting and aggregating data, and making estimations or forecasts based on them.

But it is subject to some errors. Weekly estimates were below monthly estimates by as much as 300Mbbls/d in 2014. Also, jan14 STEO projected US production at 8.87 millions barrel per day in Q4 2014, while it ended at 9.24 MMbbls/d. That's a 370Mbbls/d difference... Not that much, but coupled with their projection of OPEC cuts (which turned out with max output), they ended up being grossly wrong on the outlook of supply/demand, which ended with a strong price correction.

So far in 2017, they overestimated a little bit US production in their jan17 STEO. They already reduced Q4 production estimation by 200Mbbls/d. So, was it really bashing to say they were too optimistic when they corrected themselves their projections?

They still project a 500Mbbls increase between Q3 2017 and Q1 2018... That appears optimistic. IMHO, it will take a little bit longer to get to this level, something like Q3 2018. But of course, that's just wild guess from my part, based on various data (from eia of course) and opinion around.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 15 Dec 2017, 11:51:15

Plantagenet wrote:Over the years the EIA has done a remarkably poor job of predicting the future of global oil markets


But of critical importance...they didn't fall for peak oil nonsense. So whatever else we might say about them, we can conclusively say that they aren't as dumb as peak oil doomers.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 15 Dec 2017, 11:56:58

tita wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:
http://peakoil.com/consumption/eia-bashers-should-check-their-own-numbers


EIA bashers should check their own numbers.

EIA does a great job in collecting and aggregating data, and making estimations or forecasts based on them.

But it is subject to some errors.


Name anyone who projects into the future who doesn't?

Name anyone who has EVER predicted something basic, say, the price of oil, over the kind of time periods that the EIA handles. I'm not sure anyone gets that one right. But the difference between most folks, and the EIA, is that someone has to try, and they have the budget and the experts to give it a go, so they do.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 15 Dec 2017, 18:00:13

AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Over the years the EIA has done a remarkably poor job of predicting the future of global oil markets


we can conclusively say that they aren't ....as dumb...


Why do you think the EIA isn't "dumb", to use your simplistic terminology? Most of the EIA predictions for the future of global conventional oil production over the last 20 years have been wildly wrong. They are doing a little bit better recently but their overall track record is horrible, and the methodology they use for predicting future conventional oil production numbers is virtually idiotic.

Looking at the EIA predictions, its pretty clear that they just assume that some rate of growth in conventional oil production will continue indefinitely as their projections are mostly just straight or almost straight lines. Then every year the EIA realizes it was wrong, and changes the rate of projected conventional oil production growth to a lower value. The math they use is incredibly simplistic, and the basic idea itself that global conventional oil production will grow forever at some constant rate is really really dumb and has clearly proven to be totally wrong.

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Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 15 Dec 2017, 22:06:10

Plantagenet wrote:Image
Cheers!


You really need to find a reference that reflects current global production, instead of creating a faux peak. And based on current oil production (correcting for the graph that doesn't even have history right), it looks like the EIA was damn near spot on compared to contemporaneous peak oilers back in 2008! But that isn't even the main point that you want to avoid. Thank you for, again, proving it with your graphs. Regardless of the hysteria of the day, the EIA didn't fall for peak oil. They knew better. Puts them head and shoulders above all those who did. Like what TOD published.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 15 Dec 2017, 22:57:15

AdamB wrote:... the EIA didn't fall for peak oil. They knew better. Puts them head and shoulders above all those who did.


Actually, the EIA prediction was for conventional oil production to steadily increase each year, while the Peak Oil theorists said conventional oil would peak.

The EIA was wrong, and the PeakOil theorists were right about that.

AND neither the EIA or the PeakOil theorists predicted major contribution from unconventional oil.

Both the EIA and the Peak Oil theorists were wrong on this one.

If you're keeping score its EIA 0 for 2, peak oil theory 1 for 2.

-------------------------------------------

What you are calling "peak oil" are the predictions made by Campbell and others that global oil production would peak ca. 2000-2010. These predictions have been falsified, but that doesn't falsify the peak oil theory, anymore then someone miscalculating how fast an apple falls from a tree falsifies the theory of gravity.

Cheers!

Image
If the speed at which an apple falls from a tree is miscalculated, does that falsify the theory of Gravity? Same thing with the Peak Oil Theory---yes global oil production didn't peak in 2005, but that doesn't falsify the peak oil theory. Oil is a finite, nonrenewable resource, and at some point a maximum will be reached in global oil production.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby tita » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 07:59:26

AdamB wrote:Name anyone who projects into the future who doesn't?

Name anyone who has EVER predicted something basic, say, the price of oil, over the kind of time periods that the EIA handles. I'm not sure anyone gets that one right. But the difference between most folks, and the EIA, is that someone has to try, and they have the budget and the experts to give it a go, so they do.

Again, I'm not saying that they are not doing a great job. Just that their projections can be argued when there is some valid information contradicting them. Mainly past production figures.

Many "analysts" were deeply wrong when they projected US oil production in 2015, overestimating the effects of the rig count plunge. The same could true with the recent uptick of the rig count, which appears to have stalled despite highest prices in two years.

We'll known in 6 months if the eia was right to warn an oversupply in the beginning of 2018. If they are again grossly wrong about supply/demand, this will have consequences with another strong price correction. I don't think so, but nobody really knows.

Edit: Just after writing this post, I looked a website analysing LTO prod (Hz wells o ly), and it appears that Bakken production had a strong october rise.

https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2017 ... ober-2017/

Older wells also appear to have grown, which may be related with refracking or completion of DUC, I don't know. At this rythm, Bakken will reach its 2015 high before the end of the year.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 09:01:59

Rockdoc the self-professed Dr. of Oil is the prime opponent of ETP. He argues that it is impossible,and even pointless theory.


The idea that the earth circles the sun, rather than visa versa was also pointless; but it caught on anyway. People that actually study astronomy find it fairly important. The same can be said of petroleum! The Etp Model would only be pointless to those who don't consider that the collapse to their civilization is important. I asked my dog about it, but he didn't have an opinion on it.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby tita » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 11:30:55

shortonoil wrote:
Rockdoc the self-professed Dr. of Oil is the prime opponent of ETP. He argues that it is impossible,and even pointless theory.

The idea that the earth circles the sun, rather than visa versa was also pointless; but it caught on anyway.

What are you talking about? The sun goes around the earth, everybody knows that!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 13:45:10

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:... the EIA didn't fall for peak oil. They knew better. Puts them head and shoulders above all those who did.


Actually, the EIA prediction was for conventional oil production to steadily increase each year, while the Peak Oil theorists said conventional oil would peak.


Well, here is the original peak oil documentation. The johnny come lately wanna-bees, Hubbert groupies, bloggers, unemployed lawyers, beat cops, amateur violin players and the generally oil ignorant aren't the people you ask, if you want to discuss the top flight folks doing their jobs. Let me know how that word "conventional" words out in the documentation, or better yet, the volumes aren't off by nearly as many billions of barrels as the EIA.

And as Spike has explained, you really need to figure out the entire multi-peak thing, otherwise you get no peak oil cred playing kick the can and just claiming that yes, sooner or later this century or another, it has to happen sometime. We know, it is the strawman of choice among the "we looked so stupid last time we called for peak, lets CYA more next time" crowd.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 13:51:36

tita wrote:
AdamB wrote:Name anyone who projects into the future who doesn't?

Name anyone who has EVER predicted something basic, say, the price of oil, over the kind of time periods that the EIA handles. I'm not sure anyone gets that one right. But the difference between most folks, and the EIA, is that someone has to try, and they have the budget and the experts to give it a go, so they do.

Again, I'm not saying that they are not doing a great job. Just that their projections can be argued when there is some valid information contradicting them. Mainly past production figures.


The EIA is attempting the impossible. This is known.

Sometimes, directional is all you get right. The peak oilers called an inflection point. The EIA did not. Only 1 gets to be right in even this particular detail, and it turns out, that isn't the peak oilers.

But the funny thing? A peak is axiomatic, so one day, it must happen. I would bet that the EIA would be late to calling the inflection point, but the interesting question is, by how much? When, not if, oil production goes into a permanent decline, how many years of decline must happen before the EIA will begin building a continuing DECLINE into their projections, rather then showing growth?

THAT will be interesting to see play out in real time, although there is no guarantee I'll be alive to see it. but still..it would be cool to see.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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