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Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 02 Dec 2017, 13:23:25

Plantagenet wrote:The word isotropic means substances that have similar physical properties throughout the body of the material. In geology it used to describe rocks or minerals with similar properties.



I'll let you know when I hear a petroleum geologist throwing it around to describe a heterogeneous rock formation. As I've said before, never heard it used before. But then I don't spend near as much time with geologists as I once did.

And shale EUR results tend to be heterogeneous for a reason, you know, because the rock itself isn't homogeneous?

But I do like your habit of looking it up after the fact, it is quite interesting to hear about the differences between what someone might learn in a book, as to what you learn in the doing of a thing.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sat 02 Dec 2017, 17:29:19

Plant
I can better understand why you make erroneous statements if the sources you use are inaccurate.
Your statement regarding Bakken output decline is wrong and a 60 second pull up/download of Bakken production history shows this, especially on a per day output basis.
Alongside of the stall in Bakken production due to low pricing was the waiting for DAPL to come online in late May this year.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby tita » Sun 03 Dec 2017, 10:41:06

Bakken and Eagle Ford rig count increased between october 2016 and june 2017, but since remain stable or even decreasing (prices fell below 50$). This is in contrast with Permian, where rig count is still increasing. The Permian production also had a continous growth through the glut, despite much lower rig count in 2016... They probably had a lot of sweet spots. The Bakken and Eagle Ford basins are way behind the potential of Permian, they are mature and can't grow much more.

So, it's not surprising to see a growth in Bakken or Eagle Ford production, because of the lag time between drilling and completion. But it's not going to increase the way Permian increase now as their development peaked in june. Thinking this way, we also see that current rig count in Bakken or Eagle Ford is at 25% from their highest, while Permian is at 72% from its highest.

So, there are many negative signals for Bakken and Eagle Ford. We should anyway see rig count increase again (WTI at almost 60$), and they are probably going to reach their 2015 peak in 2018. It will be interesting to follow their development.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 03 Dec 2017, 18:56:40

tita wrote:The Bakken and Eagle Ford basins are way behind the potential of Permian, they are mature and can't grow much more.


Yes---exactly right. In fact they may have peaked already.

tita wrote: there are many negative signals for Bakken and Eagle Ford. We should anyway see rig count increase again (WTI at almost 60$), and they are probably going to reach their 2015 peak in 2018. It will be interesting to follow their development.


Thats within the realm of the possible, but IMHO they won't reach the 2015 peak, and if they do they won't go significantly higher.

So with the Bakken and Eagle having already peaked or nearly peaked, the last big question for the US TOS fracking boom is when will the Permian peak?

I'm predicting the Permian will peak sometime in 2020 or 2021.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 12:15:43

This technical article published in 2016 indicates parts of Ghawar currently have water cuts of up to 98% (!!!!).

ATCE: Fast Start for First Saudi CO2 EOR Project

The Saudis can reduce the water cut down to 90% by doing expensive CO2 injection work, but it only makes economic sense at oil prices over $50/bbl. Thats much much worse for the Saudis then very cheap crude they've been pumping from Ghawar up until now.

This supports the idea that Ghawar is very near its peak. If the Bakken has peaked, and Eagle Ford peaked, and the Permian Basin peaks ca. 2020-21, and Ghawar in KSA peaks, then we're right back looking at a "Peak Oil" scenario ca. 2020-21.

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The pilot project testing CO2 injection at Ghawar is scheduled to be completed in 2018. The 98% water cut observed in some areas and the concomitant need to start this CO2 injection work indicates Ghawar is at or near its peak.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 12:25:28

The main Ghawar oil reservoir is the Upper Jurassic Arab-D limestone. Injection of CO2 in carbonate rocks would cause the resident water (brine) to be acidified by CO2 dissolution and acidity promotes dissolution of carbonates. This concept is swell established and has raised concerns that injecting CO2 into carbonate rocks could lead to the formation of cavities, which in turn might compromise the stability of the storage formation and caprock.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 12:57:09

Plantagenet wrote:This supports the idea that Ghawar is very near its peak.


Opposed to when it was actually dying in 2001?

Color me not surprised when people keep pulling this stunt, not the kick the can part, but the claims of HERE IT COMES!!! It is almost like roller coaster folks, just excited by the repetition of the next drop. As least they know that as many other peaks are coming as they might want, peakers can't even figure that one out.

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Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:16:17

AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:This supports the idea that Ghawar is very near its peak.


Opposed to when it was actually dying in 2001?


Ghawar wasn't "actually dying" in 2001---don't you even know that? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Now it is 16 years later.......and in the 16 years ca. 30 BILLION barrels of oil have been pumped out of Ghawar. Thats a LOT of oil, even for a field as huge as Ghawar. The water cuts in parts of Ghawar are now up to 98%. And KSA, which has already been pumping water into Ghawar to keep the oil flowing, has now started a CO2 injection program to try to keep the production rate up.

I doubt the Saudis would start an expensive CO2 injection program unless they had to....and that means there are issues with keeping up oil production levels at Ghawar.

Check it out:

how-much-oil-can-saudi-arabia-pump
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 16:02:04

And KSA, which has already been pumping water into Ghawar to keep the oil flowing, has now started a CO2 injection program to try to keep the production rate up.


what they are doing is a CO2 pilot project not a full EOR. The reason they are doing this is to look at the ability to increase recovery rate in some of the layers where wettability is either mixed or has switched to oil wet. Whether or not they go into a full CO2 injection program at a later date will depend on the outcome of this study.

Note that according to EIA, WoodMac and IHS Energy the production at Ghawar is still around 5 MMbl/d, the same as it has been for a number of years.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 17:40:12

rockdoc123 wrote: The reason they are doing this is to look at the ability to increase recovery rate in some of the layers where wettability is either mixed or has switched to oil wet.


Yes, the oil is pretty wet when you're getting up to a 98% water cut. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

-------------------------------

What everyone seems to be missing (except me, of course) is that EOR is often done "after both primary and secondary recovery have been exhausted."

In other words, the mere fact that the Saudis are trying a CO2 EOR pilot project suggests the Saudis are looking for some way to enhance production of the remaining oil at Ghawar.

Image
Saudis now testing out CO2 EOR at Ghawar----the last phase of oil recovery is imminent

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 18:43:20

Yes, the oil is pretty wet when you're getting up to a 98% water cut. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


It is 40% water cut now as it has been for the number of years according to Aramco.

And water wet versus oil wet has special meaning to those of us who have experience dealing with reservoirs. No need to show your ignorance.

In other words, the mere fact that the Saudis are trying a CO2 EOR pilot project suggests the Saudis are looking for some way to enhance production of the remaining oil at Ghawar.


which says absolutely nothing about where they are now. They have just passed the 50% of OOIP and Aramco has been adamant they will see at least 70% with existing technologies. Aramco has always been on the fore front of oil and gas field innovation. They basically invented the MRC wells, one of the first to fully utilize SMART completions and downhole shutoffs along with expandable liners and the first to build a fully functioning Intelligent Field where drilling, production etc are all linked digitally to their full field models. They test things to improve recovery efficiency all the time, CO2 injection is just one that you have heard about, there are a host of others that may or may not be deployed at some point. There is no rule that EOR projects are undertaken at the end of a fields normal depletion, in many cases it is instituted quite early in the history to help improve overall recovery.

Saudis now testing out CO2 EOR at Ghawar----the last phase of oil recovery is imminent


As I have pointed out previously at the current production rate and based on what reserves are remaining according to a host of estimates (which apparently have now been varified by Gaffnery Cline and DeGolyer and MacNaughton) they would have 30 - 40 years of production left to get to the 70% ultimate recovery.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 19:25:49

Yes, the oil is pretty wet when you're getting up to a 98% water cut. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


It is 40% water cut now as it has been for the number of years according to Aramco.


Actually, no.

That may have been true years ago, but some parts of the field evidently have much higher water cuts now. The 2015 article from the Journal of Petroleum Technology (JPT) I cite in my post above says the EOR pilot program is being done in an area with a 98% water cut.

Try to keep up with the latest technical papers---That way there will be "no need to show your ignorance." :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


In other words, the mere fact that the Saudis are trying a CO2 EOR pilot project suggests the Saudis are looking for some way to enhance production of the remaining oil at Ghawar.


which says absolutely nothing about where they are now.


Actually it does. It says they are at a point where they feel they need to test an EOR program that might help them maintain future oil recovery.

Saudis now testing out CO2 EOR at Ghawar----the last phase of oil recovery is imminent

they would have 30 - 40 years of production left to get to the 70% ultimate recovery.


Possibly. But the fact they are testing CO2 EOR techniques at all says the people at Aramco have identified issues with current production that might be helped by implementing CO2 EOR. And one can reasonably predict it will be much much more expensive for them to produce oil from Ghawar if they implement EOR techniques widely then it currently is.

One estimate is that will ca. $50 bbl to produce oil from Ghawar using EOR. Thats a dramatic increase from today.

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Last edited by Plantagenet on Mon 04 Dec 2017, 19:44:21, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 19:30:38

As much as I hate to say this . . . Plant, you are doing a bang up job. Keep it up

Cheers :)
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 19:42:31

pstarr wrote:As much as I hate to say this . . . Plant, you are doing a bang up job. Keep it up

Cheers :)


Thank you, Peter. I hope you are having a splendid fall down there in beautiful Humboldt country.

Cheers! :)
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 00:21:41

The reason why the Bakken and Eagle Ford have already peaked is that the TOS companies drill the best areas first. When those are used up the remaining shales aren't nearly as good, and oil production falls.

Consider the Eagle Ford: The industry has drilled up to 90% of the best grade rock, but only about 30% of the largest tranche of mid-quality rock. Median peak rates for the best rock average 922 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) across 2,000 wells versus 367 boe/d in mid-grade rock across more than 5,500 wells.

2-5-billion-barrels-eagle-ford-

Wells drilled in the "best" rock at Eagle Ford are almost 3 times as productive as wells drilled into "mid-grade" shale, and the "best" grade shale is almost all used up. That means most new wells will be drilled into mid-grade rock and not be nearly as good.

Thats why the Eagle Ford TOS play has peaked.

Same story at Bakken. The best rock is used up. Its peaked.

The Permian is the only US TOS field that hasn't peaked. And insiders think it will peak in 2020-21.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 00:41:20

That may have been true years ago, but some parts of the field evidently have much higher water cuts now. The 2015 article from the Journal of Petroleum Technology (JPT) I cite in my post above says the EOR pilot program is being done in an area with a 98% water cut


I was referring to the overall water cut from producing wells in Ghawar….the number comes from Aramco circa 2016

But the area they are testing has very little to do with the producing parts of Ghawar. The paper which was written on the demonstration project at Utimaniyah

Carpenter, C. 2017. First CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery Demonstration Project in Saudi Arabia. SPE, SPE-0717-0083-JPT

Points out that they specifically selected 3 small areas on the flank adjacent an area which has peripheral water injectors operating for more than 50 years having swept this particular area of the field. They specifically wanted to test it in a completely water swept area of the reservoir. It was not implemented into the area which is currently producing just behind the flood front where water cuts have been maintained at the levels I mentioned. You are misinterpreting what is being done.

Actually it does. It says they are at a point where they feel they need to test an EOR program that might help them maintain future oil recovery and also deal with their greenhouse gas requirements through sequestration


As I’ve said previously EOR can be applied at any stage of production. It is often applied quite early on so just the fact they are looking at it says nothing about how much oil is left in the field. Simply that they would like to see if they can improve ultimate recovery.

One estimate is that will ca. $50 bbl to produce oil from Ghawar using EOR. Thats a dramatic increase from today.


Please provide the reference for that number. The JPT paper does not state that. CO2 is readily available, transport costs are low so the only excess cost is injection and separation.

And the main point here is that the 70% number quoted by Aramco does not include CO2 WAG application. That means the 30 – 40 years of production left that I mentioned previously is independent of this study and would be conducted at OPEX similar to what they experience today (~$5/bbl).
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 11:48:10

You are misinterpreting what is being done.


No, you are misinterpreting what is being done.

The fact that Aramco is undertaking a pilot project to test the efficacy of CO2 EOR at Ghawar means Aramco wants to know if CO2 EOR will help them maintain production at Ghawar.

Why else would they initiate such an expensive multi-year pilot project? For the fun of it?

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 15:09:47

The fact that Aramco is undertaking a pilot project to test the efficacy of CO2 EOR at Ghawar means Aramco wants to know if CO2 EOR will help them maintain production at Ghawar.

Why else would they initiate such an expensive multi-year pilot project? For the fun of it?


perhaps you should read the research you so smuggly alluded to (but apparently didn't read).

Their reason for doing the project was two fold (as stated in a couple of papers presented at SPE).

1. to increase carbon sequestration and hence aid in their commitments regarding reducing greenhouse gas impacts and
2. improve ultimate recovery from areas that had been swept by water flood for numerous decades where residual oil saturation had dropped below what was moveable under water flood and CO2 miscible flooding had the potential to increase recovery.

They are not trying to maintain production through this project, they never state that anywhere....the project entails 9 producers which is hardly an attempt to increase field production. It is called a Demonstration project for a reason.

But then you don't have to believe me, the following from a SPE paper

Kokal, S et al, 2016. Design and implementation of the first CO2-EOR Demonstration Project in Saudi Arabia. SPE-181729-MS

Saudi Aramco has designed and implemented the first CO2-EOR demonstration project in one of the fields. It is worth mentioning that while Saudi Aramco does not require EOR oil for decades to come, this project is being pursued primarily to demonstrate the feasibility of sequestering CO2 through EOR in the Kingdom and using it as grounds to test new monitoring and surveillance (M&S) techniques.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 15:37:07

"1. to increase carbon sequestration and hence aid in their commitments regarding reducing greenhouse gas impacts and"

that's soooo nice!

3. plant daisy's over the grave of their oil industry.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby aspera » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 12:13:44

Wall Street’s Fracking Frenzy Runs Dry as Profits Fail to Materialize:
The shale-oil revolution produces lots of oil but not enough upside for investors (Wall Street Journal, Dec 6, 2017)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-streets-fracking-frenzy-runs-dry-as-profits-fail-to-materialize-1512577420

Twelve major shareholders in U.S. shale-oil-and-gas producers met this September in a Midtown Manhattan high-rise with a view of Times Square to discuss a common goal, getting those frackers to make money for a change.

Good luck with that.
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