Peak Oil this year?

[vision-master]

Sorry ming. Perhaps in your studying on peak oil, if you'd been a bit more suspicious of the US led invasion into the middle east in 2001, you might have seen 'bringing democracy to the middle east' was actually a cover story for a project to bump up world oil production to about 100mpbd by 2020

So at what cost?

You are such a shill........

[Revi]

I think we peaked in light sweet crude in 2005, and have been peaking in other measures since. They include things like natural gas liquids and biofuels, so they are suspect. The peak happened in 2005 and the other stuff is just added on. It's like the low hanging fruit was already picked and now they are including the drops in the tally.

[vision-master]

The shills count 'theoretical reserves'...........

Of course it's all a big maybe. lol

[meemoe_uk]

>So at what cost?
Nothing unusual. Oil wars and fluctuating markets is business as usual for the oil industry.

You are such a shill........
Really?
Your right in as much as one of us is a shill.
One of us is hyping a commodity as scarce, effectively trying to pump up the market price.
The other is saying there's no scarcity saying things are pretty normal in historical context.

[kublikhan]

So if the EIA posts data that says nuclear is more expensive than natural gas, coal, hydro, etc, do you believe that data is lies? It is all a part of a massive conspiracy to suppress cheap energy technologies?
Yup, that's it. Looks like our private exchange wasn't totally in vain.

In our private exchange, you kept going on and on about how your are a scientist and an engineering. You look at the data, reality, and the peak_oil_is_now crowd are the ones in denial. Yet when I confronted you with facts and data that shoots holes in your theories, the only thing you come back with is conspiracy theories. I like how you completely ignored the point from the union of concerned scientists that nuclear is NOT over-engineered. They feel more safety systems are needed to prevent another Fukushima. Which would further drive up the cost of nuclear past today's already expensive levels. Since this fact is inconvenient to you, you simply ignore it? I hope you realize this is not a very scientific attitude.

[ralfy]

Forum members can make up anything about themselves without giving evidence.

[Tanada]

Ralfy is correct as far as they go, however no matter what kind of a persona you make up the truth will out. IOW if you stick around for a while the truth of how much common sense you have and what you think about the facts you are exposed too will be evident for those reading your messages.

As for me I am one of those who has asked what year will we fall off the plateau several times, I think we are teetering on the edge of decline now but I have been wrong before. Time will tell.

[SGV]

(...)
As for me I am one of those who has asked what year will we fall off the plateau several times, I think we are teetering on the edge of decline now but I have been wrong before. Time will tell.

the end of the plateau will be between 2012 and 2014, but that's just a guess.

[ralfy]

What SGV wrote. I think the consensus is between now and 2014 or 2015. I linked to various reports here:

http://ralfyman.blogspot.com/

[meemoe_uk]

>the end of the plateau will be between 2012 and 2014, but that's just a guess.
If I let you get away with calling the increasing supply of the last 8 years a plateau, then the end of it was 2009, after which oil supply has been going distinctly up.

[Kristen]

The problem is higher gasoline prices combined with stagnant wages.

[dolanbaker]

The problem is higher gasoline prices combined with stagnant wages.

combined with an economic system that is totally dependent on infinite growth to function.

Interesting times ahead!

[vaseline2008]

In a supply/demand economy doesn't constant price increases constitute a lack of supply? The way I see it is that we begun the "peaking" in the late 90's...oh I remember the days when oil was $9/barrel.

Sure demand has increased but if prices have continued to go up and not down -- not counting the 2008 spike and drop -- no matter how much supply has entered into the marketplace then haven't we technically "peaked" already?

[ralfy]

I forgot to add that if we consider global oil production per capita, then the peak took place in 1979.

[kublikhan]

Oh and well done kub for bring an off topic discussion private discussion onto '2005 is year of peak oil thread'

One of the few things you said that I agree with. I am splitting this nuclear discussion out into a separate thread:
Nuclear Power discussion

[MD]

peak oil occurred several years ago. We are already well into the new energy age.

[pstarr]

Peak oil did not occur already. you are correct MD that "peak real oil" occurred in 2005, but "peak oil plus butane" (or "peak oil plus propane and other ethanes"), "peak oil plus corn liquor" and even "peak oil with sludge and hydrogen mixed together and cooked" have not arrived yet. so stop worrying and get back in your truck.

[dolanbaker]

But we must be past peak BTU's at this stage, if you consider the fact that all those substitutes have a lower calorific value.