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Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Is peak oil the tip of the iceberg?

Yes, it is a symptom of a greater disease.
194
84%
No, it is just a stepping stone in energy history.
37
16%
 
Total votes : 231

Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby peripato » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 01:46:27

MonteQuest wrote:Perhaps Russia is a better model for the USA.

Except that Russia has ben able to rebound from the collapse of the USSR because it still had oil and NG to export, and was located near countries (Western Europe) which were economically intact with which it could trade. This is unlikely to be the situation for the US as it has no energy to export, and its NAFTA partners will not be in a position to help, having problems of their own to face after collapse.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby crapattack » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 05:24:17

Russia appears to be in control of the ex-KGB gazprom conglomerate that controls 80% of the world's NG. They have solidified their power under Putin and the killing of journalists is the first clue to where the country is headed. Russia has positioned itself to exert quite a lot of influence over Europe's gas supplies and has no qualms about using this power for political control and intimidation.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby crapattack » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 05:27:40

BTW I answer both to the poll. It is a symptom and a stepping stone. There is no doubt we will enter into another phase in our energy history, and the reason we have gotten here is because humans have not learned to control our reproduction and consumption. This mess a symptom of that lack of control.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 13:59:30

"Humans" had no problem controlling their consumption and reproduction when they lived in finite territories. It's our culture, with the idea of "there's always more over the next hill" that is the problem.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Twilight » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 15:32:47

MonteQuest wrote:Will post-peak poverty initiate widespread substance abuse, disease, stress, depression, and other problems for us also?

Yes, it will. In Russia, the US and EU can see their future. Without the partial economic recovery, as the US especially will have nothing of value to offer to the world.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 15:43:57

Twilight wrote:... as the US especially will have nothing of value to offer to the world.

What about nukes and American Dream?
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Twilight » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 16:56:13

EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Twilight wrote:... as the US especially will have nothing of value to offer to the world.

What about nukes and American Dream?

Good luck selling that.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Ferretlover » Wed 20 Jun 2007, 19:24:13

MonteQuest wrote:Because, without growth, our current money system implodes. It is debt-based. No growth= no growth in the money supply=deflation. Massive unemployment.


HHHmmm... I understand price=supply vs demand.
There's no such thing as a free lunch.
IMHO, betting in poker is like the futures market on wall street.

Do you expect that, post peak, money will still have value in the longrun?
Will money still retain any value if there are no goods to be bought?
Also, if there is massive dieoff, will unemployment be a problem (provided we are not overrun by illegal aliens)?
What is going to happen to the value of money if, post peak or sooner, China and other call in our debts to them?
My husband and I have been investing in a 401K for over thirty years...What do you see happening to those investment firms?
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 20 Jun 2007, 20:26:13

Ferretlover wrote:
Do you expect that, post peak, money will still have value in the longrun?
Will money still retain any value if there are no goods to be bought?
Also, if there is massive dieoff, will unemployment be a problem (provided we are not overrun by illegal aliens)?
What is going to happen to the value of money if, post peak or sooner, China and other call in our debts to them?
My husband and I have been investing in a 401K for over thirty years...What do you see happening to those investment firms?


All of this is covered in the Depletion economics forum, so let's not get off on a tanget here. But...

Fiat money only has value when people have faith in it.

It is not backed by anything else.

It only exists because people are taking out loans.

It is often said that the difference between the rich and the poor is that money works for the rich and the poor work for money.

Post-peak, the rich will be those that work.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Ferretlover » Wed 20 Jun 2007, 22:46:32

Thank you. Economics is definitely NOT my forte! I will check Depletion economics forum--sorry about the different topic.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Ferretlover » Fri 29 Jun 2007, 10:56:41

If there is a post peak die off:
1. will there be a need for reproduction reduction efforts?
2. will those aspects of global warming that are presumed to be caused by humans not correct themselves?
3. won’t reduced population benefit environmental conservation efforts?

Won’t isolated pockets of humanity set up their own economies? (Yes, I am still struggling with the economic issues! … sigh…) Could one say that most economies are just “pyramid schemes?”

Unfortunately, I have absolutely No faith in the idea that any changes that require a global consensus will ever succeed. No matter how large the die off will be, there is no way that all humans will ever agree unanimously on anything.

And, I don’t get it re: biofuels-If the amount of available arable land is decreasing, and it takes as much as 8 units of energy to produce 1 unit of biofuel, aren’t? biofuels currently a dead-end?

Won’t space expansion take a back seat in the priorities of the future? (Depressing thought-I wanted to be an astronaut when I was much younger…) It takes fuel to get those orbiters into space… I admit I do not know of what the fuel mixture consists.

Aren’t we humans in this mess because of our faulty thinking/analyzing processes? I don’t understand why so many think that personal attacks are an appropriate response, in any situation or forum, when an idea is questioned. Shouldn’t brainstorming skills be required learning at the earliest possible age?
Last edited by Ferretlover on Fri 29 Jun 2007, 13:46:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 29 Jun 2007, 12:35:24

Groups will very definitely need to limit their reproduction to maintain their local population to within the carrying capacity of their local environment, which is likely to be much reduced from its optimum by that time. Control of reproduction was always important to groups with finite territories (tribal peoples).


Global warming will "correct itself" but not for centuries, probably. Humans need to adapt to global warming for the foreseeable future.



Reduced population won't necessarily benefit the environment unless people learn to live within the carrying capacity of that environment. A few people can still make a huge mess of things.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby NotMyBlood » Fri 29 Jun 2007, 13:03:51

How long can man continue to plod aimlessly ahead into the abyss?

Thats the only way Man has ever functioned. We need a way to keep warm stumble upon Fire and use it. We need a way to power a car and heat are homes and stumble upon Oil and use it. We adapt to problems. It might mean war, pandemics, tradegies, painful transitions, different "ages", etc etc etc but we continue to find new ways. George Jetson.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby azreal60 » Fri 29 Jun 2007, 14:36:31

Thats the only way Man has ever functioned. We need a way to keep warm stumble upon Fire and use it. We need a way to power a car and heat are homes and stumble upon Oil and use it. We adapt to problems. It might mean war, pandemics, tradegies, painful transitions, different "ages", etc etc etc but we continue to find new ways.


Read the Ishmael series, and then realize
Thats the only way Man has ever functioned
THAT'S NOT TRUE.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby NotMyBlood » Mon 02 Jul 2007, 16:07:01

I will take your recommendation and read the series. I gotta warn you thought if its not interesting , I wont get very far. But I will try.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby RdSnt » Mon 02 Jul 2007, 20:21:44

People, in general, aren't about to change. It's not because they are lazy or malicious, it's simply they don't often have a point of reference to compare what they are doing with what the consequences are.

I fully believe there will be a very nasty die-off, read the above paragraph to see the reason why.
During and after the die-off we will start the cycle all over again. Why, because the vast majority of the survivors will be far too busy attempting to survive to reflect on the future ramifications of what they are currently doing. Quite truthfully most won't give a damn.

I would truly hope that we can maintain some connection to advanced technology, so that we can populate the rest of the solar system.
I do not believe we should go backwards, retreat to some balanced harmony with nature shit. We will die out completely if we pursue that path. I believe we need to move beyond this planet and expand our capabilities.
Our sensible route off the planet is with space elevators. Not at all science fiction, they are currently being developed and are a practical solution.



Ferretlover wrote:If there is a post peak die off:
1. will there be a need for reproduction reduction efforts?
2. will those aspects of global warming that are presumed to be caused by humans not correct themselves?
3. won’t reduced population benefit environmental conservation efforts?

Won’t isolated pockets of humanity set up their own economies? (Yes, I am still struggling with the economic issues! … sigh…) Could one say that most economies are just “pyramid schemes?”

Unfortunately, I have absolutely No faith in the idea that any changes that require a global consensus will ever succeed. No matter how large the die off will be, there is no way that all humans will ever agree unanimously on anything.

And, I don’t get it re: biofuels-If the amount of available arable land is decreasing, and it takes as much as 8 units of energy to produce 1 unit of biofuel, aren’t? biofuels currently a dead-end?

Won’t space expansion take a back seat in the priorities of the future? (Depressing thought-I wanted to be an astronaut when I was much younger…) It takes fuel to get those orbiters into space… I admit I do not know of what the fuel mixture consists.

Aren’t we humans in this mess because of our faulty thinking/analyzing processes? I don’t understand why so many think that personal attacks are an appropriate response, in any situation or forum, when an idea is questioned. Shouldn’t brainstorming skills be required learning at the earliest possible age?
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 02 Jul 2007, 21:24:35

So basically, fuck the planet and the people left behind - some of us are escaping to the stars?


That's keen, ain't it?
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 02 Jul 2007, 23:23:31

RdSnt wrote: I do not believe we should go backwards, retreat to some balanced harmony with nature shit. We will die out completely if we pursue that path. I believe we need to move beyond this planet and expand our capabilities.
Our sensible route off the planet is with space elevators. Not at all science fiction, they are currently being developed and are a practical solution.


God help us. :roll:
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Jack » Tue 03 Jul 2007, 00:06:17

RdSnt wrote:Our sensible route off the planet is with space elevators. Not at all science fiction, they are currently being developed and are a practical solution.


This belief will lead to a harder crash and more profound die-off.

Cool! 8)
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby RdSnt » Tue 03 Jul 2007, 22:26:21

Why?

Jack wrote:
RdSnt wrote:Our sensible route off the planet is with space elevators. Not at all science fiction, they are currently being developed and are a practical solution.


This belief will lead to a harder crash and more profound die-off.

Cool! 8)
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To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
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