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PeakOil is You

Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Do you want oil production to peak, sometime in the reasonably near future?

Yes I do
103
53%
No I don't
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Total votes : 196

Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby thuja » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 20:44:51

Wake me up when any of these start producing even 500,000 b/d. Ghawar is around 4.5 mb/d. Cantarell was about 2mb/d (dropping like a stone) and Burgan was up to 1.7 and has been dropping as well.

I'm not saying new production isn't happening- I'm glad for these finds- they will soften the blow- but they will not be able to match the monsters of the past. They could have 2 trillion barrels of oil- its all about recovery rates...

As well as EROEI...How much energy do some of these fields need to get out useful product?

Again- wake me up when all those billions of barrels of untapped oil really turns into recopvered product...

And take a look at Dude's graph again...it tells the story...
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Oil-Finder » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 21:05:56

thuja wrote:Wake me up when any of these start producing even 500,000 b/d. Ghawar is around 4.5 mb/d. Cantarell was about 2mb/d (dropping like a stone) and Burgan was up to 1.7 and has been dropping as well.

I'm not saying new production isn't happening- I'm glad for these finds- they will soften the blow- but they will not be able to match the monsters of the past. They could have 2 trillion barrels of oil- its all about recovery rates...

As well as EROEI...How much energy do some of these fields need to get out useful product?

Again- wake me up when all those billions of barrels of untapped oil really turns into recopvered product...

And take a look at Dude's graph again...it tells the story...

-- As I calculated in the 11th post here, the Bakken is already producing about 200K barrels/day. This has been rising lately and will continue to do so as many companies (both on the American and Canadian sides) drill more wells and invest more money in the play.

-- In the last post here I linked an article saying that Petrobras broke the 2 million barrel/day mark on Christmas day, and expects to maintain that throughout 2008, and expand it afterwards when some other new projects come on line.

-- In this recent article here, China's CNOOC announced it has just started production from 2 new fields in Bohai Bay, and expects to double oil production in 5 or 6 years.

-- The Dude's graph is dated, with incorrect future assumptions on oil discoveries. The links I've provided in this thread alone have already disproven it, but I will soon do still more to disprove it. All you peak oilers think there's little exploration going on with few new discoveries being made, but you are wrong.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby thuja » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 21:16:18

Oil-Finder wrote:
thuja wrote:Wake me up when any of these start producing even 500,000 b/d. Ghawar is around 4.5 mb/d. Cantarell was about 2mb/d (dropping like a stone) and Burgan was up to 1.7 and has been dropping as well.

I'm not saying new production isn't happening- I'm glad for these finds- they will soften the blow- but they will not be able to match the monsters of the past. They could have 2 trillion barrels of oil- its all about recovery rates...

As well as EROEI...How much energy do some of these fields need to get out useful product?

Again- wake me up when all those billions of barrels of untapped oil really turns into recopvered product...

And take a look at Dude's graph again...it tells the story...

-- As I calculated in the 11th post here, the Bakken is already producing about 200K barrels/day. This has been rising lately and will continue to do so as many companies (both on the American and Canadian sides) drill more wells and invest more money in the play.

-- In the last post here I linked an article saying that Petrobras broke the 2 million barrel/day mark on Christmas day, and expects to maintain that throughout 2008, and expand it afterwards when some other new projects come on line.

-- In this recent article here, China's CNOOC announced it will be starting production from 2 new fields in Bohai Bay, and expects to double oil production in 5 or 6 years.

-- The Dude's graph is dated, with incorrect future assumptions on oil discoveries. The links I've provided in this thread alone have already disproven it, but I will soon do still more to disprove it. All you peak oilers think there's little exploration going on with few new discoveries being made, but you are wrong.


Again- I'm glad that new production is coming along. There are numerous places that exploration is happening and discoveries are offsetting massive losses from the Old Guard. But again- wake me up when a field hits 500k/day. Ghawar at its peak got to 6mb/d so 500k would be just 1/12th the production level. Still, I'd be impressed.

So Baaken at 200kb/d....that's great- not overwhelming but a good sized field...

Brazil is doing quite well right now but Petrobras is their main oil company that oversees many hundreds of wells- not just one main site. I could tell you Exxon produces 6.5 mb/d. It means nothing.

And Bohai? IN its infancy...wake me up in 10 years...

I'm not trying to belittle any finds- they are all important...but they are like rocks compared to the boulders that used to turn up.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Oil-Finder » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 21:22:00

thuja wrote:I'm not trying to belittle any finds- they are all important...but they are like rocks compared to the boulders that used to turn up.

How can you call "conservatively 50 billion barrels" of oil off the coast of Brazil a "rock compared to the boulders that used to turn up?"

How can you call 300 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken a "rock compared to the boulders that used to turn up?" Even if only a quarter of that is recoverable, that's a whole new Venezuela.

This is just another example of peak oiler denial. :roll:
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby thuja » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 21:31:56

Oil-Finder wrote:How can you call "conservatively 50 billion barrels" of oil off the coast of Brazil a "rock compared to the boulders that used to turn up?"

How can you call 300 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken a "rock compared to the boulders that used to turn up?" Even if only a quarter of that is recoverable, that's a whole new Venezuela.:


How? Recovery rates...Like I said I could tell you I found 2 trillion barrels of oil under Alberta...but how easily (EROEI) and how quickly can I recover it. That is why the true test is telling me how much these sites can recover per day....ie.

Wake me up when one of them hits 500kb/d...Then I'll be interested.

Oil-Finder wrote:This is just another example of peak oiler denial. :roll:


I have never denied that there are new discoveries to be made that will help offset delones in older bigger fields.

But denial is for those who don't do enough research and understand the topic well enough. Like I said, even the most wild-eyed optimists who dream of 5 new Saudi Arabias say that a peak will happen between 2030 and 2037.

In other words...say it with me now...

A peak in oil production is coming...big discoveries or not.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Nicholai » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 21:39:02

"A study on peak oil, just released by the independent, non-partisan Congressional General Accountability Office, concluded that “Most studies estimate that [world] oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040. This range of estimates is wide, because the timing of the peak depends on multiple, uncertain factors that will help determine how quickly the oil remaining in the ground is used, including the amount of oil still in the ground; how much of that oil can ultimately be produced given technological, cost, and environmental challenges, as well as potentially unfavorable political and investment conditions in some countries where oil is located; and future global demand for oil. Demand for oil will, in turn, be influenced by global economic growth and may be affected by government policies on the environment and climate change and consumer choices about conservation.”

Great article!



LINK
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Oil-Finder » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 21:41:31

thuja wrote:How? Recovery rates...Like I said I could tell you I found 2 trillion barrels of oil under Alberta...but how easily (EROEI) and how quickly can I recover it. That is why the true test is telling me how much these sites can recover per day....ie.

Wake me up when one of them hits 500kb/d...Then I'll be interested.

Hmmm, let's see . . .

2 million bpd Petrobras (and rising) + 200K bpd Bakken (and rising) = 2.2 mllion bpd (and rising).

It's time to wake up!

I have never denied that there are new discoveries to be made that will help offset delones in older bigger fields.

But denial is for those who don't do enough research and understand the topic well enough. Like I said, even the most wild-eyed optimists who dream of 5 new Saudi Arabias say that a peak will happen between 2030 and 2037.

In other words...say it with me now...

A peak in oil production is coming...big discoveries or not.

It is you who have not done any research on new discoveries, so the denial is yours.

So say it with me now . . . peak oil is a long ways off . . . peak oil is a long ways off . . .
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby cube » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 21:55:26

Tanada wrote:...
What I want is irrelevant, which is something I learned as a small child.
...
When I was a child I noticed MOST of the other kids had bigger, newer, and more toys than I did. I would be lying if I said that never bothered me. However I also noticed that some of these other kids were NOT automatically happy but instead "bitter".

They have a very strong sense of what I call "entitlement". They think the world owes them something simply because they exist. These are the kids who are convinced that their teacher hates them because they failed a test. Men who get upset at women and call them bitches because they wouldn't date them. Where the "fcuk" does a man get the idea that a woman is "obligated" to give herself to him?

What does this have to do with crude oil? Just imagine how much things are going to "heat up" when all these people who think they're "entitled" no longer get to enjoy the lifestyle they think they deserve.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Nicholai » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 21:58:24

My Dad says that if we run into supply-shortfalls and demand begins to grow FAR beyond the pace of supply, we should issue 'fuel rationing cards'. I said I'd pay his cab to Crazy Town.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby thuja » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 21:58:43

Oil-Finder wrote:
thuja wrote:How? Recovery rates...Like I said I could tell you I found 2 trillion barrels of oil under Alberta...but how easily (EROEI) and how quickly can I recover it. That is why the true test is telling me how much these sites can recover per day....ie.

Wake me up when one of them hits 500kb/d...Then I'll be interested.

Hmmm, let's see . . .

2 million bpd Petrobras (and rising) + 200K bpd Bakken (and rising) = 2.2 mllion bpd (and rising).

It's time to wake up!

I have never denied that there are new discoveries to be made that will help offset delones in older bigger fields.

But denial is for those who don't do enough research and understand the topic well enough. Like I said, even the most wild-eyed optimists who dream of 5 new Saudi Arabias say that a peak will happen between 2030 and 2037.

In other words...say it with me now...

A peak in oil production is coming...big discoveries or not.

It is you who have not done any research on new discoveries, so the denial is yours.

So say it with me now . . . peak oil is a long ways off . . . peak oil is a long ways off . . .


Oil-finder I'm glad you are willing to stay here and fight the good fight...there's very few of you here. Again to sum up...

Major oil fields with massive daily production levels (Ghawar, Cantarell, Burgan, Da Qing) have lost steam and are going into decline. The amount of production required to make up for just these big boys is enormous. We will need all of what you and others mention (Baaken, Jack, Caspian Sea, new Brazilian fields and many more) to simply offset the declines of other fields.

People such as Oil-finder discuss oIl fields and claim massive reserves but neglect to talk about EROEI or recovery rates because it does not bolster their argument.

Even if his wildest dreams came true and we found a bunnch of Ghawars that produced 6 mb/d within the next decade...we would still reach a peak within a few decades as other fields declined. This is the observation not of doomers, but of the most optimistic out there...CERA.

So Oil-Finder you wish to extend our party for 20-30 more years...that's a blip. Almost no one believes we have that kind of time but even if we do...it is next to nothing. We still have a very short span of time to prepare foran entirely new way of living. Do you agree with that...or do you truly believe that "peak oil is a long ways off" and therefore we don't need to worry about it.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Oil-Finder » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 22:15:31

thuja, I have not mentioned the EROEI of these finds because no one has calculated what their EROEI's are.

Since these are all very recent finds, of course they aren't producing much oil yet. What - do you expect them to find a new oil field one day, and next week start pumping 1 mbd from it? :roll: By complaining that these new discoveries aren't producing vast amounts of oil yet, that's like complaining that one's newborn baby can't do calculus yet. :roll:

"OMG this newborn infant is so useless! It can't even do calculus! Wake me up when it's at least able to do algebra."

:roll:

Even if his wildest dreams came true and we found a bunnch of Ghawars that produced 6 mb/d within the next decade...we would still reach a peak within a few decades as other fields declined.

Not necessarily. That depends on how many of these new Ghawar's were found, how big they were, how much capital was invested in their development, and on what the rate of decline of the old fields were.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby thuja » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 22:25:41

Oil-Finder wrote:thuja, I have not mentioned the EROEI of these finds because no one has calculated what their EROEI's are.

Since these are all very recent finds, of course they aren't producing much oil yet. What - do you expect them to find a new oil field one day, and next week start pumping 1 mbd from it? :roll: By complaining that these new discoveries aren't producing vast amounts of oil yet, that's like complaining that one's newborn baby can't do calculus yet. :roll:

"OMG this newborn infant is so useless! It can't even do calculus! Wake me up when it's at least able to do algebra."

:roll: .



That's why it is important to look back at the last time an oil field was found that produced immense daily amounts...and that was the 70's (and mainly from the 40's/50's). All those finds since? They have never neared the enormity of production of Ghawar. So...yes...I will wait and see- and as I said- wake me up when we hit 500kb/d (1/12th of Ghawar).


Oil-Finder wrote:
Even if his wildest dreams came true and we found a bunnch of Ghawars that produced 6 mb/d within the next decade...we would still reach a peak within a few decades as other fields declined.



Not necessarily. That depends on how many of these new Ghawar's were found, how big they were, how much capital was invested in their development, and on what the rate of decline of the old fields were.


Ummm...you are alone....completely. There is nobody that will back you up on this claim. It is so erronsous and without support that it makes us question your understanding of the subject. Check out the projections of any and every analyst out there. I'm afraid the only ones you may be able to quote are some obscure Ruissian scientists who believe in abiogenisis...and I sincerely hope we don't lose you to that sphere of thinking...
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Oil-Finder » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 22:34:42

thuja wrote:That's why it is important to look back at the last time an oil field was found that produced immense daily amounts...and that was the 70's (and mainly from the 40's/50's). All those finds since? They have never neared the enormity of production of Ghawar. So...yes...I will wait and see- and as I said- wake me up when we hit 500kb/d (1/12th of Ghawar).

To be honest I think all this talk of Ghawar is a red herring. Even back in your supposed "glory days" of oil exploration, the vast majority of oil finds were much, much smaller than Ghawar. You act as if there were dozens of Ghawar's discovered back in the good old days, but that's just not true. Most oil discoveries back then were fairly small.

And even at that, I continually mention the 300 billion barrels in the Bakken - which is 3 times the size of Ghawar - and you still act as if there are no new Ghawar's being discovered. Sorry, but you are wrong.

Ummm...you are alone....completely. There is nobody that will back you up on this claim. It is so erronsous and without support that it makes us question your understanding of the subject. Check out the projections of any and every analyst out there. I'm afraid the only ones you may be able to quote are some obscure Ruissian scientists who believe in abiogenisis...and I sincerely hope we don't lose you to that sphere of thinking...

Well, let's see, just mentioned in this thread alone . . .

Bakken = 300 billion barrels = 3 Ghawars.
Brazil = 70 billion barrels = 0.7 Ghawars.
Bohai Bay = 100+ billion barrels = 1 Ghawar.

That's 4.7 Ghawars. And no, I did not make up those # of barrel figures, various geologists, oil companies and others have. Read my previous links. So yes, I actually do have quite a few people who (collectively) agree with me. You lose.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby thuja » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 22:44:07

Its very difficult to discuss this when you don't understand that reserves do not equal recovery...

I'll say it again because it is the crux of this discussion

Reserves do not equal recovery.

The finds were massive back then because recovery rates were massive.

Let's look at the biggest ones...

Ghawar
Burgan
Cantarell
Da Qing
Samotlor

All these were found many decades ago and some more than a half century ago. They are massive not because of their "resevres" but because of their production and recovery rates.

Nothing has neared these boys since. My advice is to stop talking too much about reserves...it sounds great on paper...but in reality?

I could add up the trillions of barrels of shale in the Rockies and Alberta and say..see..no problem! We have 20 Ghawars here in N. America...

Do you see why this would be silly? Shale has a much lower EROEI and recovery rate than those other fields did. As Chevron's CEO has said..."The easy oil is gone".

So yes- we can still get production...a little out of many thousands of fields. But massive fields with gigantic recovery rates? Name me a few since the 70's.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Oil-Finder » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 22:56:43

^
And you can be sure Ghawar and Cantarell started out similar to the newly discovered offshore fields in Brazil, or the Bohai Bay.

Some amount of oil was initially discovered, and at first they thought it was small or maybe medium sized. Soon they started production. As they did more and more exploration and production of the field, they gradually discovered it was bigger and bigger. As they discovered it was bigger and bigger, they realized they could extract more and more from it.

This scenario has been played over a zillion times with a zillion different oil fields.

How do you know the same thing won't happen with offshore Brazil, or the Bakken, or Bohai?

In all probability, it will, especially in the ones with the larger reserves.

It's not like Ghawar started producing 4 mbd from Day One.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby thuja » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 23:00:51

If these old fields were pretty small compared to what has been discovered...can't you name at least a few that are surpassing their production that have been discovered in the last 30 years?
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Gandhi » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 23:00:51

Such faith.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Oil-Finder » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 23:07:44

thuja wrote:If these old fields were pretty small compared to what has been discovered...can't you name at least a few that are surpassing their production that have been discovered in the last 30 years?

I'm not sure I understood your question?

Are you asking me if there is an oil field that is producing more now than it did when it was first discovered <30 years ago????
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby thuja » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 23:14:38

Examine the last 30 years for new discoveries. Then let me know how many of them have reached production rates like Ghawar of over 5 mb/d.

There should be a few right? Just like you said, it takes a while for new discoveries to show production. Some of these newer finds (with even bigger reserves) in the last 30 years must have become as productive as Ghawar. So let me know a few of them that you can find...
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Oil-Finder » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 23:21:30

thuja wrote:Examine the last 30 years for new discoveries. Then let me know how many of them have reached production rates like Ghawar of over 5 mb/d.

There should be a few right? Just like you said, it takes a while for new discoveries to show production. Some of these newer finds (with even bigger reserves) in the last 30 years must have become as productive as Ghawar. So let me know a few of them that you can find...

This question is a straw man. I've already pointed out earlier:

"To be honest I think all this talk of Ghawar is a red herring. Even back in your supposed "glory days" of oil exploration, the vast majority of oil finds were much, much smaller than Ghawar. You act as if there were dozens of Ghawar's discovered back in the good old days, but that's just not true. Most oil discoveries back then were fairly small."

I never said there were discoveries now in active, large-scale production within the last 30 years which were bigger than Ghawar. The 3 discoveries I listed - Brazil, the Bakken and Bohai Bay - have only been discovered to have large amounts of oil very, very recently.

You're asking me to prove something which I never claimed.
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