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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Moderator: Pops

Do you want oil production to peak, sometime in the reasonably near future?

Yes I do
103
53%
No I don't
93
47%
 
Total votes : 196

Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 07 Feb 2016, 18:22:21

We dont decide
Its happening.


Um...yeah. Enjoy your <$2.00 gas.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Sun 07 Feb 2016, 21:09:44

In this crazy PPO ponzi scheme, cheap oil doesnt mean no PO
I dont think the Russians and Venezuelans are enjoying cheap oil
Probably not even the average Saudi
For me I use $300 of gas/petrol a year personally I dont win or lose that much, short term either way at the gas pump.
Its everywhere else that matters,my investments, my rate of return,my ability to liquidate assets quickly without losing too much skin.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 07 Feb 2016, 22:22:28

Shaved Monkey wrote:cheap oil doesnt mean no PO


Listen to Monte. Even he admitted we're not at peak oil yet. ;)


Shaved Monkey wrote:I dont think the Russians and Venezuelans are enjoying cheap oil


What's that supposed to mean? The Saudis probably weren't enjoying cheap oil in the late 90s either. That doesn't mean it was peak-oil in the 90s.

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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 07 Feb 2016, 22:49:49

ennui2 wrote: Enjoy your <$2.00 gas.


Thanks. I paid $1.59 gallon today here in central Alaska

Now I wonder if we'll see <$1.00 gas before this oil glut ends. :)
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Mon 08 Feb 2016, 02:13:24

Its over $3 a gallon here
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 08 Feb 2016, 02:35:55

Plantagenet wrote:
ennui2 wrote: Enjoy your <$2.00 gas.


Thanks. I paid $1.59 gallon today here in central Alaska

Now I wonder if we'll see <$1.00 gas before this oil glut ends. :)

It must nice living in a socialist paradise. What happens when the North Slope dribbles dry? Will that mean going back to work? Or just immigrating south from the White Hell.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 08 Feb 2016, 08:00:04

It's interesting that so many still feel that reaching that magical (and relatively unimportant) PO date will have any significant effect on fuel prices. Whenever that date might be (or occurred) we are closer to it now (or passed it) then when oil reached $145/bbl. It seems that despite the dynamics we've seen in the last 10 years lots of folks still don't get it: global economic vitality (especially that in the US and rapidly developing countries like China) will have a much greater influence on the price of oil then the global oil production capacity. Regardless of the supply/price of oil there will always be those consumers that can satisfy their demand because they can afford their oil. The only caveat when this won't be true is if oil prices get so low that there are more potential buyers then the max oil production. But that's condition shouldn't last long: the market forces would push oil price high enough to eliminate those unsupplied consumers.

IOW $145/bbl and $30/bbl oil are both consistent with the concept of PO. That’s been proven in the last 10 years if one understands the actual dynamics involved that determine the price of oil. And thus appreciate that the actual development of PO will not have as much impact on the price of oil as they are assuming. IOW the dynamics that brought us $145/bbl oil is also responsible for the current $30/bbl price. I doubt that if someone can’t appreciate that now given what we’ve seen in the last 10 years they never will.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby El_Producto » Mon 08 Feb 2016, 12:53:40

Going back to the original question of the topic, I'm gonna answer with a qualified "no". I feel like the spirit of this question isn't so much "do you want oil to reach a maximum production capacity and then decline", but more of a "do you want to see the potential ramifications of peak oil", i.e., a societal collapse. It isn't really worth discussing the former, but the latter is a legitimate question for the PO community.

I've been around the PO community for a while. I was 13 or 14 when I first read Matt Savinar's page, and even if a lot of his predictions did not come true, it was very eye opening. When I was young, people were coming out with books about how Liberal Democracy had conquered the world and ended history, it seemed like things were getting better and better. It was very outside the norm for someone to say something different. Since 2008 though, the tone has changed to be more negative for the future, even though technology continues to progress.

I think this perspective gives some of us, maybe myself included, a certain sense of superiority. Some of us want to see bad things happen to justify our world view. Some of us (not me, full disclosure) have even invested time in preparing kits and even huge lifestyle changes as a result of our world perspective. Everyone thinks they are unbiased, but you ain't telling me that someone who has made this a huge part of their life doesn't have a horse in this race.

But anyways, back to why I say "no". Peak oil isn't some religious cleansing event. Plenty of societies have collapsed before our current one came into being.

Although people might feel superior, might feel well prepared, it's probably not enough. When the Maya were going down, maybe some of those people saw it coming and bought a bunch of stone tools. Maybe they moved into the woods to hunt deer or something. But, the majority probably died, along with the other 90-95% of the population. That's because a societal collapse would affect everyone who interacts with the society.

To take a more recent example, Syria can be said to have collapsed. ISIS has taken the rural regions, so no self sustaining independent farm for you. The masses have fled to every corner of the earth. They're now causing problems for European societies, destabilizing the region further. Almost everyone involved has been negatively affected, and the same would probably happen here, if we fell apart.

Basically, I'm saying no, because my sense of realism tells me that it would suck. It would suck regardless of any preparations I made. But at the same time, I won't deny that it would be kind of intellectually satisfying. :twisted:
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Revi » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 13:59:35

I think it's already happened. It really doesn't matter whether I want it to happen or not. I will be able to say "I told you so", but otherwise it won't be so great.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 03 Sep 2017, 23:33:53

Revi - I think what you're sensing isn't so much that we've reached that relatively unimportant date of global peak oil but the truly important development: the POD...Peak Oil Dynamic. Which could be argued started to some degree back in the 70's. Since WWII till the 70's we had very stable oil prices, no lines at the gas stations, no boom/bust cycles in the oil patch, no SPR, no expendature of $trillions and thousands of our military's lives "bringing democracy" to countries in oil producing regions, etc.

It's the cumulative effect of all those situations as well as current events that make you feel we maybe just "crossed a bridge too far". In reality we started on this path long ago. Compared to what we have experienced, are experiencing today and will experience in the future what happens when we reach the actual date of GPO will be of little importance.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 12:14:54

Revi wrote:I think it's already happened. It really doesn't matter whether I want it to happen or not. I will be able to say "I told you so", but otherwise it won't be so great.


And yet here we are...18 months later....enjoying the consequences of it, <$2.00/gal gasoline (until Harvey came along anyway).

Have you had a good sailing summer this year Revi? Has peak oil 18 motnhs ago bothered you at all, getting the boat to the ocean, have their been fuel shortages in Maine because of peak oil? Or are you enjoying copious abundance like the rest of us?
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 12:28:20

ROCKMAN wrote:Revi - I think what you're sensing isn't so much that we've reached that relatively unimportant date of global peak oil but the truly important development: the POD...Peak Oil Dynamic.


Here we go again. This site has devolved to the point where certain people want to just camp here and flog their peak oil-subtheories. ETP is Short's and "POD" is your theory.

ROCKMAN wrote:all those situations as well as current events that make you feel we maybe just "crossed a bridge too far".


POD is really just Chris Martenson's crash-course with the serial-numbers filed off. It's an attempt to comfort people similar to religion, by explaining away all the ills of the world by simplifying it down to one driving force, in this case oil rather than Satan.

It rebrands PO as something that is as diffuse and hard to spot as the influence of Satan. It just becomes a catch-all for everything. Recessions, wars, Justin Bieber haircuts.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 18:43:12

Peak oil is passed. It happened in 2006 then went on ten year plateau. Now it is in permanent decline. Humans just don't want to accept the truth because it scares the literal shit out of them. So they will deny it and rationalize it by blaming a villain de jour based on evidence free conspiracy theories.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 01:51:10

Back to the original question. ( I don't remember if I have posted on this thread before and I'm not going to read it all to find out.)
Who gives a rat's phatoot if I want peak oil or not? The answer is no one.
It will come when it comes or has already come and we will learn how to deal with it. But what ever happens my opinion on the matter will have absolutely zero effect on the outcome.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 10:25:48

70 - "It rebrands PO as something that is as diffuse and hard to spot...". Not true at all: global peak oil will be a very easy number to spot. It will be nothing more then an entry on a spreed sheet. But it could take decades to be certain. Just as US PO in the 70's seemed locked in and yet we came very close to resetting that date recently. Had oil prices not fallen it looked certain we would have a new US PO date.

Likewise I can't imagine how anyone can say we've set the global PO date more the 10 years ago since we are producing significantly more today. And whether we've just set the final global PO date won't be proved for many years. Folks are certainly welcome to their OPINIONS on that matter but it can't proved - yet.

On the other hand all the human suffering and economic disruption brought on by our energy predicament should be f*cking obvious to even a fool. LOL. Which is why the POD isn't a theory but a very tangiable reality. Thus $147/bbl of oil as well as $28/bbl are both aspects of the POD. And neither are a function of the actual date of global PO. Which, again, proves how that date has any little practical relevance.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 10:38:37

Some argue that they do, because it would hasten the end of us humans emitting man made CO2 and thus presumably avert the worse of climate change. On the other hand, going cold turkey and abruptly ending Oil production would almost certainly signify tremendous loss of life and suffering. So, I personally am ambiguous of what I want or even what is best.
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 11:17:52

ROCKMAN wrote:all the human suffering and economic disruption brought on by our energy predicament should be f*cking obvious to even a fool. LOL.


It's funny how the posting style of zealots all start to sound similar in the end. This "you either get it or you're a fool, LOL" style is straight out of PStarr and Short's playbook, and I know you're not an ETPer. But you have no problem adopting their dogmatic style when it comes to your own narrative.

You want to prove your narrative, mount an argument, don't just insult people.

It's kind of sad that the site has devolved to the point where there's a series of closed-sided echo-chamber style discussions going on. Each silo bobbleheads on the one end and ad homs the others.



BTW, "energy predicament" is just the sort of vague term I'm talking about. It has no substance. It's a platitude.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 11:41:56

Boy Asg, are you off base here. First off Rock is not a zealot. In fact, you would think that he would be a consistent advocate for the "blessings" of Oil, given that he own an energy Co. So his assertion of the knock on effects of the peak oil dynamic is anything but dogmatic or delusionary. Or do you think the poorest countries just chose to be so poor and deprive themselves of access to energy and the accompanying lifestyle. To some what seems a relatively cheap oil price is in fact expensive. As for the nuances that Rock alluded to related to the oil price, I realize that is over your head but 29 dollar oil is just as much a outcome of economics of oil depletion as $147. All of it part of the peak oil dynamic. The only question is how soon this dynamic brings a form of economic collapse. Etp argues soon based on lack of Net Energy and the teetering of the Oil Industry. Others feel it will be more gradual a sort of survival of the economic fittest. It seems it is you, who are trying to avert seeing anything that disrupts your rosy outlook.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 13:26:15

onlooker wrote:Rock is not a zealot.


When he resorts to ad homs and just takes it as a given that people should side with his analysis otherwise they're idiots, he's a zealot.

onlooker wrote:In fact, you would think that he would be a consistent advocate for the "blessings" of Oil, given that he own an energy Co.


His bias shows when he attempts to shoot down EVs and renewables with FUD.

onlooker wrote:So his assertion of the knock on effects of the peak oil dynamic is anything but dogmatic or delusionary.


You do realize you are defending a staunch critic of ETP, right?

onlooker wrote:Or do you think the poorest countries just chose to be so poor and deprive themselves of access to energy and the accompanying lifestyle.


Everything revolves around a good guys/bad guys conspiratorial narrative with you.

Last time I checked there's nothing new about haves and have nots. It's not a function of the oil age. Goes at least as far back as the dawn of agriculture.

It's the attempt to mis-attribute cause and effect that bothers me. As peak-oil loses relevance, people broaden the term to the point where it's completely meaningless.

onlooker wrote: To some what seems a relatively cheap oil price is in fact expensive.


Which is PStarr's narrative. Guess what? Running water, electricity, food, all these things are hard to come by in the 3rd world. This has also been the case for a very very long while. It's not a function of peak oil, certainly not considering the glut we're in.


onlooker wrote: As for the nuances that Rock alluded to related to the oil price, I realize that is over your head but 29 dollar oil is just as much a outcome of economics of oil depletion as $147. All of it part of the peak oil dynamic. The only question is how soon this dynamic brings a form of economic collapse. Etp argues soon based on lack of Net Energy and the teetering of the Oil Industry. Others feel it will be more gradual a sort of survival of the economic fittest. It seems it is you, who are trying to avert seeing anything that disrupts your rosy outlook.


Again, Rock is a staunch critic of ETP. Stop lumping the two together.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 13:44:03

BTW, read this and weep.

http://www.sciencealert.com/our-biases- ... eive-facts

Doomers spend enough time building their silos and they become prisoners to their "path of least resistance".

BAU continuing apace is a challenge and so the narrative must be warped in order to rationalize it (ETP, POD, starving africans not affording cheap oil, aka PStarrism)

All along the way doomers perceive their wisdom to be the one true path and it's dissenters who are imprisoned by their blue-pills. Yet day in and day out...BAU...continues....APACE.

I guess there's always zerohedge...
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