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Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby donstewart » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 16:35:40

@Richard Heinberg; New Oil Model; ETP
Richard Heinberg reviews current 'respectable' collapsitarian publications, including one from France which tackles some of the same issues the ETP model addresses. And seemingly comes out with similar conclusions (although I haven't bought and read the full article).

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017- ... -grenades/

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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Observerbrb » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 16:38:07

Oil prices fading away after latest API data is out

Crude +897K
Gasoline +4.445MM
Distillates -36K
Cushing -1.971MM
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 23:55:56

Revi wrote:I would say so. We complain about having to get up, go to the fridge and get our food out of it, pre-packaged and ready for consumption. Wait until we have to grow, cook and consume our food without any fossil fuel. There will be a lot of people who will just cluster near the feeding stations, but some will figure out how to do it again.


Some never forgot. The cure to peak oil, as generally advocated by the collapse club? See below. I wonder why so few, who honestly believe this is where the world is headed, aren't swelling their ranks by the millions already?

Image
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 26 Apr 2017, 04:48:09

AdamB wrote:Some never forgot. The cure to peak oil, as generally advocated by the collapse club? See below. I wonder why so few, who honestly believe this is where the world is headed, aren't swelling their ranks by the millions already?

Image

Probably because walking behind that plow is a seven plus mile walk per acre and you can't text and plow at the same time. :)
Also enough land to feed the mules could be used to grow a bio -diesel convertible crop and run a more productive tractor.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 26 Apr 2017, 10:01:02

vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:Some never forgot. The cure to peak oil, as generally advocated by the collapse club? See below. I wonder why so few, who honestly believe this is where the world is headed, aren't swelling their ranks by the millions already?

Image

Probably because walking behind that plow is a seven plus mile walk per acre and you can't text and plow at the same time. :)
Also enough land to feed the mules could be used to grow a bio -diesel convertible crop and run a more productive tractor.


How dare you have a viable alternative that doesn't require powerdown/collapse/MZB/Amish Nirvana!

Last night I was forced, FORCED I say, to drive the wife's car until it ran out of electricity, and turned on the gas engine, just to make sure that the last oil change, done months ago, wasn't going to leak out all over the road when I begin the summers road trip touring season. It is just amazing how little things like that (changing the oil and then running the car to make sure it doesn't leak somewhere) just disappear when you run around powered by batteries for months.

But now it is time to see the Hyde in the Dr. Jekyll, to burn fossil fuels like pstarr does, wildly and randomly and in copious quantities because...well....I can! And because YOU can so easily come up with alternatives to those who think that the only solution is Amish-nirvana, now I can't even take pleasure in doing this as though it might never happen again. Of COURSE it will happen again, because if there is one thing that can't be discounted within our post peak world, it is the folks that think ahead, do the math, and drag everyone else kicking and screaming into the future whether they like it or not.

The most recent wakeup of how EVs themselves might put the kibosh on the need for increasing oil supplies, on the front news page of po.com no less.

http://peakoil.com/consumption/electric ... d-in-2030s
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Revi » Wed 26 Apr 2017, 12:01:09

Whatever Adam B. At least you respond to things. I think we'll lose a lot of big ag when things get bad.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 26 Apr 2017, 15:41:10

Revi - "I think we'll lose a lot of big ag when things get bad." When I allow myself to fantasize about future doom and gloom that's where my thoughts lead. Not as much for the more affluent economies like the US and Europe. I can see no way to continue feeding the world's population (which isn't happening very well today for hundreds of millions) without commercial ag. And commercial ag that thrives on burning fossil fuels as well as fertilizing with them. Small scale farms can work well but are just that: small scale:

"After 5 years of steady growth, U.S. agricultural exports declined in 2015 to $133 billion due to slower world economic growth, a strong U.S. dollar, lower exports of high-value products, and falling prices for bulk commodities."

Obviously that $133 billion wasn't grown by hundreds of thousands of farmers tending 20 acre plots. And it wouldn't be just less production but also at higher prices. So even if commercial ag can maintain output as we stubble down the PO path the cost will increase. And that's in a world where many are priced out to some degree of the market place TODAY.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 26 Apr 2017, 20:39:49

Revi wrote:Whatever Adam B. At least you respond to things. I think we'll lose a lot of big ag when things get bad.


Revi, you've been thinking things will get bad since peak oil happened a decade back. How many more decades are you willing to wait before admitting that..well...you don't even have enough time left in your life to wait that long? Think of your health man, the stress of continuously worrying about the bears in the woods, on an island that has none, is worse than if there actually was a bear there somewhere!
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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 27 Apr 2017, 02:47:54

Revi, all Adam has is the repeating meme of so far the timing if predictions of Doom have been faulty therefore the reasoning behind such predictions is also. When someone who is in the Industry like Rockman can utter the following, it shows the bleak path we on:
"Obviously that $133 billion wasn't grown by hundreds of thousands of farmers tending 20 acre plots. And it wouldn't be just less production but also at higher prices. So even if commercial ag can maintain output as we stubble down the PO path the cost will increase. And that's in a world where many are priced out to some degree of the market place TODAY."
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 27 Apr 2017, 05:08:07

ROCKMAN wrote:
Obviously that $133 billion wasn't grown by hundreds of thousands of farmers tending 20 acre plots. And it wouldn't be just less production but also at higher prices. So even if commercial ag can maintain output as we stubble down the PO path the cost will increase. And that's in a world where many are priced out to some degree of the market place TODAY.

If you look at farm statistics you can see that fuel and fertilizer as well as herbicides make up about half of the production costs of grain crops. So if the price of oil were to double, corn grown for $5.00 per bushel today would cost about $7.50 per bushel depending on crop rotations and chemical inputs. That would also carry through to the price of eggs ,milk and meat but food would still be relatively cheap here in America.
https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/ ... /a1-20.pdf
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Revi » Thu 27 Apr 2017, 07:56:48

Big ag depends on cheap energy. If the price of diesel goes up it wrecks the whole model. I am not saying that it's going to be wonderful to lose it, but the era of cheap food is coming to an end. Those small farms aren't going to be a great place to be either, but at least they will feed some people. The vast majority are going to be in trouble. Big ag will continue, but they are commodity farms, and need to be given subsidies to survive. They sell wholesale into the market. Smaller farmers usually sell retail and can't make as much food.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby dirtyharry » Thu 27 Apr 2017, 13:41:15

[/quote]If you look at farm statistics you can see that fuel and fertilizer as well as herbicides make up about half of the production costs of grain crops. So if the price of oil were to double, corn grown for $5.00 per bushel today would cost about $7.50 per bushel depending on crop rotations and chemical inputs. That would also carry through to the price of eggs ,milk and meat but food would still be relatively cheap here in America[/color]

Vts ,stupid is what stupid does/says . The heart is only 5% of body weight ,so no problem if it pops off .We will ask the kidneys to do the extra work . Evidently you are illiterate as far as how complex systems work .Suggested readings Tainter ,Diamond, Korowicz ,Heinberg etc . Oh and if you have read them then truly it is "Stupid is what stupid does/says"
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby zleo99 » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 03:21:26

As much as I appreciate Short, PStarr, Onlooker and Etp, and understand the Export Land Model points made by PStarr, I have looked hard at the data available on the EIA website, and am unable to see any problems reflected in the refining industry economics.

The following quotes from the latest, 26 April, https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/ do not suggest the imminent demise of US refining.

"Favorable product price spreads, infrastructure changes, and abundant cost-advantaged crude oil have facilitated the shift in net shipment patterns." and
"The development of the Canadian oil sands and light, tight crude oil in the United States have provided refiners in the Midwest with abundant, cost-advantaged crude oil, providing opportunities to optimize crude slates, expand refinery capacity, and sell to a wider geographic market,..."

I also don't understand why the Refinery & Blender Net Inputs are compared with Refinery-Only Outputs to arrive at Short's conclusions, and would greatly appreciate more explanation.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 07:21:27

Revi wrote:Big ag depends on cheap energy. If the price of diesel goes up it wrecks the whole model. I am not saying that it's going to be wonderful to lose it, but the era of cheap food is coming to an end. Those small farms aren't going to be a great place to be either, but at least they will feed some people. The vast majority are going to be in trouble. Big ag will continue, but they are commodity farms, and need to be given subsidies to survive. They sell wholesale into the market. Smaller farmers usually sell retail and can't make as much food.

How does a price increase of fuel "wreck the model"? Scarce high priced fuel and fertilizer will crowd out the least efficient farmers and cause production numbers to fall and unit sale prices to rise which will eliminate the need for any subsidies. All farms are commodity farms just some small ones use their production to subsist on and their production numbers are much smaller.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 10:39:46

onlooker wrote:Revi, all Adam has is the repeating meme of so far the timing if predictions of Doom have been faulty therefore the reasoning behind such predictions is also.


Incorrect. I harp on, admittedly, that people that can't even be bothered to come up with any NEW proclamations of doom, instead choosing to continually recycle mechanisms invalidated previously. And then the real kicker? Because it is the proclamation itself, the pure unwavering belief, of importance, and not the validity of the reasoning, THEY REFUSE TO LEARN FROM WHY IT DIDN'T EVER HAPPEN THE LAST TIME THEY CLAIMED IT.

That is the real problem in my view, the inability to learn from past mistakes. Just rinse, repeat, recycle over and over and over again failed ideas...dreaming, hoping, wishing for it to just FINALLY cause the doom scenario they want. Einstein teeters awful close to the label for this kind of cognitive dysfunction.

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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 10:48:26

Revi wrote:Big ag depends on cheap energy.


When "energy" (at least in the form of oil) started to become ever more expensive in the early 1970's, it killed off Big Ag you think? Cheap oil ended nearly half a century ago now, and what got killed off was Baby Ag, not Big Ag.

Revi wrote: If the price of diesel goes up it wrecks the whole model.


Big Ag didn't die in 2007-2008 when diesel was nearly twice the price it is now either.

Revi wrote: I am not saying that it's going to be wonderful to lose it, but the era of cheap food is coming to an end.


Define cheap. When folks throw away half of it, it sure sounds like cheap is still what we've got.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 29 Apr 2017, 02:08:17

vtsnowedin wrote:How does a price increase of fuel "wreck the model"? Scarce high priced fuel and fertilizer will crowd out the least efficient farmers and cause production numbers to fall and unit sale prices to rise which will eliminate the need for any subsidies. All farms are commodity farms just some small ones use their production to subsist on and their production numbers are much smaller.


It wrecks the model because a global capitalist system with a growing human population, a growing middle class, and increasing credit require cheap oil, and with that cheap food.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 29 Apr 2017, 02:17:28

ralfy wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:How does a price increase of fuel "wreck the model"? Scarce high priced fuel and fertilizer will crowd out the least efficient farmers and cause production numbers to fall and unit sale prices to rise which will eliminate the need for any subsidies. All farms are commodity farms just some small ones use their production to subsist on and their production numbers are much smaller.


It wrecks the model because a global capitalist system with a growing human population, a growing middle class, and increasing credit require cheap oil, and with that cheap food.

There is nothing to guarantee that the population will continue to grow or will the middle class and even credit may well shrink. Cheap oil has been nice but there is nothing magical or required about it and we most certainly will get to a time of more expensive oil and from that more expensive food but that will not wreck any models only change both the inputs and outcomes through the model.
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