Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Moderator: Pops

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 16:55:56

You just asked for any takers on a bet for a new US peak. Now that you have 2 takers you chicken out and instead want to wager on the ups and downs of monthly production.
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3666
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 17:05:18

"Yes, it is the end of oil. The world economy depends on forever growth to pay off forever debt. Without that growth it all comes crashing down. And make no mistake: AI, Tesla, and Sony Robots are no substitute for abundant inexpensive energy."

Well you are right about that, but you are a brave lad to take that bet on production. It takes 50% more Shale to produce a barrel of finished product than it does light sweet crude. They need at least 2.5 mb/d/yr more to just keep even. They are going to be pumping like hell to keep that supply available, and someone with deep pockets is financing it. This is not about running out of oil, its about running out of money. If they have to they'll be selling the population off in the local slave market to keep those funds coming. Your bet seems to be more about when the monetary/ financal system will take a high dive into a shallow pool than about oil, but, Good Luck.

TheHillsInfo
User avatar
shortonoil
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4278
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Observerbrb » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 17:22:09

Why are you still talking about volume? The drilling and extraction of oil volumes don't really matter. What it really matters is the final amount of energy that reachs Joe the Plumber.
Observerbrb
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 254
Joined: Mon 08 Dec 2014, 14:24:48

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 17:26:46

Oh I don't know Observerbrb. Maybe it's, I don't know, the main purpose of this site and one of the few recent topics actually about peak oil?
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3666
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 17:28:20

Darian S wrote:Can that ramp go up significantly above the previous peak? Can it sustain it for the indefinite future, at least the coming decades? Is the word that the newer wells drop production rapidly wrong?


There can certainly be yet another US peak...just as there was the more recent one. And oil production is never about an "indefinite" future, it always declines, all wells decline as well, and it becomes all about the activity levels, and how much more drilling there is to do.

Darian S wrote:The idea of a peak is not the end of oil, but merely a peak in production, unable to sustain significant increases above the peak for the relative near future.


Peak oil is defined as "terminal decline" after the peak, NOT "unable to sustain increases for the relative future". Rewriting the definition of oil itself was the last stunt to try and avoid the obvious of what happened a decade ago (no peak), rewriting what peak oil is yet again is just so..normal..now I suppose. Rather than accepting the obvious...that bell shaped curves and A peak just doesn't work so well.

Darian S wrote: Can the U.S. increase production significantly above their prior peak and sustain it for decades. If not at least for the U.S. it has peaked.


Sustaining production for decades isn't what post peak is about either. The good news is that peak demand is now the most likely cause of a peak in oil production, and this is a good thing.
AdamB
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1699
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 17:32:48

shortonoil wrote: It takes 50% more Shale to produce a barrel of finished product than it does light sweet crude.


And when that shale oil is itself light sweet crude....? Let me guess...we get another display of how much you don't know about 2 chemically identical oils when one comes from a source rock and another from a reservoir rock?
AdamB
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1699
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Cog » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 17:37:27

My wager to pstarr is the following:

If at any time, during the period between now and December 31st of 2018, the monthly average of 9,637,000 bbl/day is exceeded for US oil production, then you owe me $1000 USD by Paypal. If by December 31st of 2018 the monthly average of 9,637,000 bbl/day is not exceeded, than I owe you $1000 USD by whatever payment method you so choose.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7996
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 17:38:20

Observerbrb wrote:Why are you still talking about volume? The drilling and extraction of oil volumes don't really matter. What it really matters is the final amount of energy that reachs Joe the Plumber.


Joe is getting all he wants, and because there is so much VOLUME being produced in relation to how much all the Joe Plumbers want, that the price is even pretty cheap!! Joe the Plumber is doing well!
AdamB
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1699
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 18:02:16

Observerbrb wrote:Why are you still talking about volume? The drilling and extraction of oil volumes don't really matter. What it really matters is the final amount of energy that reachs Joe the Plumber.

There are several other measures more important than total volume. The oil exporters gain wealth through oil sales and oil-field employment, and then typically subsidize oil consumption among the general population. The Export Land Model demonstrates that exports decline faster than production increases, wealth and the ability to pay for oil is redistributed away from the importers. Hence the collapse of oil prices down from $100/barrel.

Not only does ETP show that less energy reaches the consumer, it also suggests that money spent on low quality oil production has less economic value. Less money and oil to add value to the final product. Less oil to convert NGL's into plastic goodies.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 24649
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 18:06:26

Cog wrote:My wager to pstarr is the following:

If at any time, during the period between now and December 31st of 2018, the monthly average of 9,637,000 bbl/day is exceeded for US oil production, then you owe me $1000 USD by Paypal. If by December 31st of 2018 the monthly average of 9,637,000 bbl/day is not exceeded, than I owe you $1000 USD by whatever payment method you so choose.

I like that. I'm still impatient though. How about midnight April 20 2018?
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 24649
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Cog » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 18:22:08

I'll split the difference and go with August 20th, 2018.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7996
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 18:33:47

My plan would lock up each of our monies in a secure account until August 20, 2018 or the 1970 peak is exceeded. That way neither can weasel. I have no idea how to manage such things.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 24649
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 18:47:50

I am not a betting person but if I was I would bet on pstarr's position
“the Hell is what we will leave behind" Ibon
User avatar
onlooker
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6581
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 18:58:00

onlooker wrote:I am not a betting person but if I was I would bet on pstarr's position
thanks, onlooker. :) But I don't require your confidence . . . just his cash lol
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 24649
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 19:09:26

shortonoil wrote:Your bet seems to be more about when the monetary/ financal system will take a high dive into a shallow pool than about oil, but, Good Luck.

TheHillsInfo

That is certainly a component of my confidence/bet. Though few are able/willing to admit it, the Greatest Recession ever was sparked in large part by the 2005 conventional oil peak and half-decade of $100/barrel oil (from $40). Each year the US sent an additional $300 billion overseas in oil-payments. The world is in debt and broke. Comfortable americans have no idea how low economies everywhere have already sunk.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 24649
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 21:56:58

pstarr wrote:
Observerbrb wrote:Why are you still talking about volume? The drilling and extraction of oil volumes don't really matter. What it really matters is the final amount of energy that reachs Joe the Plumber.

There are several other measures more important than total volume. The oil exporters gain wealth through oil sales and oil-field employment, and then typically subsidize oil consumption among the general population. The Export Land Model demonstrates that exports decline faster than production increases, wealth and the ability to pay for oil is redistributed away from the importers. Hence the collapse of oil prices down from $100/barrel.


The ELM's author used it to predict an export crisis in 2006. Apparently he doesn't have a model that can predict anything either. And, like other discredited folks...has been eerily quiet as of late....

The oversupply wasn't predicted by the ELM, and the ELM didn't predict lower prices either.

pstarr wrote:Not only does ETP show that less energy reaches the consumer, it also suggests that money spent on low quality oil production has less economic value. Less money and oil to add value to the final product. Less oil to convert NGL's into plastic goodies.


The ETP doesn't show anything, except that its authors don't know much about the oil field, its operation or the project economics of it, but boy do they want you to pay for their report!!!
AdamB
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1699
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 22:11:22

pstarr wrote: Though few are able/willing to admit it, the Greatest Recession ever was sparked in large part by the 2005 conventional oil peak and half-decade of $100/barrel oil (from $40).


Nah. But again, until we know which alternate universe you are in today, we can't fight your phantoms, so we'll just stick with the real reasons of the 2008 recession. But feel free to modify Wiki to stop calling it the "subprime mortgage crisis".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of ... _Recession
AdamB
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1699
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Cog » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 22:20:53

pstarr wrote:My plan would lock up each of our monies in a secure account until August 20, 2018 or the 1970 peak is exceeded. That way neither can weasel. I have no idea how to manage such things.


I'll give you 24 hours to mull my wager over in your mind. I'm not locking my money up for a year and four months. I'm a gentleman and do not weasel on wagers. There are three persons on this board, with whom I have made wagers in the past, who can attest to that.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7996
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 01:20:17

Cog wrote:
pstarr wrote:My plan would lock up each of our monies in a secure account until August 20, 2018 or the 1970 peak is exceeded. That way neither can weasel. I have no idea how to manage such things.


I'll give you 24 hours to mull my wager over in your mind. I'm not locking my money up for a year and four months. I'm a gentleman and do not weasel on wagers. There are three persons on this board, with whom I have made wagers in the past, who can attest to that.

It was my wager, I set the terms with three accounts because I don't trust you as I would expect you not to trust me. Remember: Доверяй, но проверяй. You are still on my ignore. bye bye.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 24649
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Cog » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 06:13:23

Then we have no bet since I find your terms to be unreasonable.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7996
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests