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Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 13:11:24

pstarr wrote:Damn, now I have to put Marmy on ignore. He joins vt, Cog, adamB, and Kub. What a crowd, huh? RM is about the only real skeptic left.

We the few who even know what peak oil is anymore? Man . . . oh man what a dumbed down place this has become omg lol

What took you so long to put Marm on ignore? :lol:
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 13:22:04

pstarr wrote:RM, those other products are not liquid fuel. They are feedstock, one of many that enter other industrial manufacturing operations (to produce plastic etc). But those other industrial operation must run on the liquid fuel output from the refinery. Only the liquid fuel output from the refinery powers the economy that ultimately pays the refinery costs.

What product of crude oil refining is not a liquid or a gas? Even road asphalt cement is a liquid at 180 degrees F.
And what difference does its state :liquid, solid or gas, make if it is a saleable product?
But again you are supporting Shorties lie of siting "refinery AND blender input and dividing it by just Refinery output. Apparently he wants us to believe that the Blenders have no output.
Here are the figures that are the real facts.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_in ... blpd_a.htm
In and
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_re ... mbbl_m.htm
Out.
So from 18,975 mbpd in they get 20,065 mbpd out.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 13:31:48

Did you not read or comprehend what P said. The other byproducts are feedstock. The liquid fuel that matters is mostly motor gasoline. It is what primarily runs the Economy. The blender grades are feedstock thus not included. Liquid fuel is the measurement that matters. On that basis when converted to the prices, the Refinery yield is becoming more unfavorable
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 14:01:04

pstarr wrote:
onlooker wrote:Did you not read or comprehend what P said. The other byproducts are feedstock. The liquid fuel that matters is mostly motor gasoline. It is what primarily runs the Economy. The blender grades are feedstock thus not included. Liquid fuel is the measurement that matters. On that basis when converted to the prices, the Refinery yield is becoming more unfavorable

Perhaps vt has me on ignore, and is arguing with an Imaginary Me? That is mostly what these trolls do.

I have to answer for you since you have them on ignore, I guess you are more worn out than me as more years on this site than me :razz:
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 14:06:05

ROCKMAN wrote:Looker - " Divide that number into the latest $/barrel quote to get crude cost per barrel of finished product of output. Subtract from that the wholesale price of gasoline. The US refining industry is now spending more on the crude that they use than they are getting for the finished product.". Not sure but it seems you keep missing the critical point: all the numbers being used assume that refineries only sell the gasoline made from oil and throw away the rest of the products. IOW the cost of 100% of the crude input is being compared to the price of LESS THEN HALF THE VALUE of all the products being produced from that oil. So obviously the value of the output is less the the cost of the oil input.


Hence the term "thermodynamic retard" claim made by the other poster. Although "mass balance retard" might be more accurate.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 14:08:40

pstarr wrote:We the few who even know what peak oil is anymore?


WAS...according to you.

pstarr wrote:Man . . . oh man what a dumbed down place this has become omg lol


Quite an accurate statement from your perspective, assuming you aren't lying about your ignore list.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 14:12:49

onlooker wrote: Liquid fuel is the measurement that matters.


The same mechanism was designed to allow peakers to save face from their bad claims of a decade ago...just count the oil or products YOU claim are important and presto! Peak oil or liquids whenever you want it. Sub-divide by color, density, ancillary constituents, discovery date of field, depth, presence of water nearby...and so now this routine is being used on refineries? As long as it keeps sales of the report going, that is all that matters because as quite a few are noticing...the ideas themselves are just crap.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 14:17:23

Not yet P, they are still luring in the sucker money.
Undaunted by oil bust, financiers pour billions into U.S. shale
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-s ... SKBN17J0BK
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 14:22:40

Crude oil enters the refinery.
Gasoline exits the refinery and is paid for by other parts of the economy.
All other components of the crude (ethylene, polypropylene, asphalt, etc) exit the refinery and are paid for by other parts of the economy. The total of these payments, by the economy,equals the cost of the crude, plus a profit to the refinery.
The economy is measured in money, currency, or whatever you call it.
If you say that the economy runs only on the part of the crude that takes soccer mom to Walmart, you are ignoring the majority of the economy.
I don't believe that refineries are operating at a loss.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 14:36:57

Yes and Gas runs internal combustion engines of which a Diesel Engine is one form. Diesel Engines run Diesel generators ( a very important source of backup power), and On the Road:
The vast majority of modern heavy road vehicles like trucks and buses, ships, long-distance trains, large-scale portable power generators, and most farm and mining vehicles have diesel engines.
Ergo what Pstarr us saying is accurate. http://www.dieselserviceandsupply.com/i ... usage.aspx
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 14:43:49

pstarr wrote:Yes, the economy runs the part of the crude that takes soccer mom to Walmart. It also runs on the part of the crude that mines iron ore, harvests timber, and drives ships, trains and trucks and turns feedstock into plastic parts. There needs to be enough oil to drive the entire economy. And drill for oil. Apparently there is not.

The economy is an ever-changing thing. Since all those things you mention are still going on, you must mean that they are in the process of a slow roll to a future stop or metamorphosis to something else. That I can believe. But as of right now, it hasn't happened to the extent of forcing refineries to work at a loss.
Peak oil is a real thing - I understand that. But don't call imminent collapse until we have better evidence proving that, is my recommendation.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 17:47:37

onlooker wrote:Did you not read or comprehend what P said. The other byproducts are feedstock. The liquid fuel that matters is mostly motor gasoline. It is what primarily runs the Economy. The blender grades are feedstock thus not included. Liquid fuel is the measurement that matters. On that basis when converted to the prices, the Refinery yield is becoming more unfavorable

The stupidity of your statement knows no bounds. Diesel is not feed stock nor is propane or asphalt.
Go back to the barrel diagram. 12 diesel +4 jet fuel +1 residual oil+19 gasoline +2 propane(gas liquids=39 gallons of liquid fuels) and then there are six gallons of other products like asphalt and some that are indeed feed stocks but are all flammable and could be used as fuel if needed.
The "blender grades" are in fact blended into gasoline so of course have to count.
As an aside while you guys were yacking I was out running some diesel through my tractor harrowing the acre food plot I plowed yesterday. :)
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 17:57:13

onlooker wrote:Yes and Gas runs internal combustion engines of which a Diesel Engine is one form. Diesel Engines run Diesel generators ( a very important source of backup power), and On the Road:
The vast majority of modern heavy road vehicles like trucks and buses, ships, long-distance trains, large-scale portable power generators, and most farm and mining vehicles have diesel engines.
Ergo what Pstarr us saying is accurate. http://www.dieselserviceandsupply.com/i ... usage.aspx

Yes both gas and diesel engines are internal combustion engines but you can't run gas in a diesel or diesel in a gas engine. The fact that most heavy machinery uses diesel proves nothing that Pstarr has said.
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