Revi wrote:The future is going to be electric. Why do anything with fossil fuels? Fuel the grid with solar, wind and hydro. Why wouldn't it work? The awful secret is that we will all have to use less of everything. This includes the big consumers at the top of the OECD countries. They don't want to admit it, but flying around the planet is not sustainable and neither is the 4000 pound car. We are going to have to take the bus, or the train. Sorry folks.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts that global liquid fuels supply will grow by 0.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016 and by 0.8 million b/d in 2017. The supply growth comes from production increases by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that more than offset decreases in non-OPEC supply.
Revi wrote:They can forecast all they want, but the combo of old fields and the price crash is going to make it hard to increase the amount of oil produced in 2016.
Revi wrote:We are starting out lower than 2015, so I can't see it increasing, unless there is a gigantic surge of oil in the second half of the year. They just forecast this stuff so that economists can say that there will be "growth".
In Nigeria, output has fallen to its lowest in decades at around 1.65 million bpd following several acts of sabotage.
In the Americas, U.S. officials warned they were growing increasingly concerned by the possibility of an economic and political meltdown in Venezuela amid low oil prices.
Venezuela's oil production has already fallen by at least 188,000 bpd this year.
In the United States, crude production has fallen to 8.8 million bpd, 8.4 percent below 2015 peaks as the sector suffers a wave of bankruptcies.
And in China, output fell 5.6 percent to 4.04 million bpd in April, year-on-year.
Countering this, supply rose from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as its producers are engaged in a race for market share.
OPEC pumped 32.44 million bpd in April, up 188,000 bpd from March, the highest since at least 2008.
GoghGoner wrote:China down 5% surprised me - that is around 0.2 mbd. Although China is a distant 4th in oil producing standings, it still produces over 4 mbd (or it did).
Oil prices rise on Nigerian outages, Goldman forecastIn Nigeria, output has fallen to its lowest in decades at around 1.65 million bpd following several acts of sabotage.
In the Americas, U.S. officials warned they were growing increasingly concerned by the possibility of an economic and political meltdown in Venezuela amid low oil prices.
Venezuela's oil production has already fallen by at least 188,000 bpd this year.
In the United States, crude production has fallen to 8.8 million bpd, 8.4 percent below 2015 peaks as the sector suffers a wave of bankruptcies.
And in China, output fell 5.6 percent to 4.04 million bpd in April, year-on-year.
Countering this, supply rose from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as its producers are engaged in a race for market share.
OPEC pumped 32.44 million bpd in April, up 188,000 bpd from March, the highest since at least 2008.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
AdamB wrote:Revi wrote:We are starting out lower than 2015, so I can't see it increasing, unless there is a gigantic surge of oil in the second half of the year. They just forecast this stuff so that economists can say that there will be "growth".
As has been aptly demonstrated, guessing at up or down just doesn't work, because the sine wave profile of production can just come along and hammer you into the ground like a stake. A decent price spike because of lack of Canadian supply because of fires and presto...the next 5000 Bakken well pads are known..TODAY. All it takes is a rig and the accompanying service company crews and we're off to the races. The only thing we know for certain is we don't know anything for certain, and we certainly can't forecast tomorrows production rates with always declining curves when obviously, as demonstrated above. oil production doesn't always just decline because people hope it will.
And those economists? Here they are UNDERESTIMATING the effects of shale oil production by nearly 2 million barrels a day, just 3 and 4 years ago.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Revi wrote:We are never getting back to the "good old days". The amount we are producing now is going to help us out for a little while, but there is no way we are going to be able to continue our lifestyle with the amount we'll be getting in the near future. I wish we had prepared for this day, but we didn't. C'est la vie...
Tanada wrote:That 2012-2013 graph is no more likely to come true than any other projection made from equal portions of hope and fear.
Revi wrote:We are never getting back to the "good old days".
Revi wrote: The amount we are producing now is going to help us out for a little while, but there is no way we are going to be able to continue our lifestyle with the amount we'll be getting in the near future. I wish we had prepared for this day, but we didn't. C'est la vie...
“The decline in production is not due to the price crash”
Much more wells should have been added to offset output decline from older wells.
They were not added due to price crash.
vtsnowedin wrote:We will get there soon enough.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ts-slashed
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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