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Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby keehah » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 15:09:31

Our efforts are better spent toward conservation, reforestation, and the development of alternative energy sources; preparing for the sky to fall.

I fixed that statement, it had an extra word and needed a semi-colon.

Or is it that you wish us to prepair for the future, while remaining in denial about it? ;)
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 15:17:41

wahoodoggydoo wrote:However, I believe we have the capability to dramatically change current global energy production and consumption to offset the impact of Peak Oil.


Ah, but therein lies the rub.

Will we?

We haven't so far.

We haven't even started.

And history tells us we will wage war over the remaining supplies first.

Besides, do you really think we have 10 to 20 years before oil peaks and that a crash mitigation program is in the works as we speak?

Because, if not, then I don't think the capability exists to do so.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby davep » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 15:30:47

MonteQuest wrote:
wahoodoggydoo wrote:However, I believe we have the capability to dramatically change current global energy production and consumption to offset the impact of Peak Oil.


Ah, but therein lies the rub.

Will we?

We haven't so far.

We haven't even started.

And history tells us we will wage war over the remaining supplies first.

Besides, do you really think we have 10 to 20 years before oil peaks and that a crash mitigation program is in the works as we speak?

Because, if not, then I don't think the capability exists to do so.


Having "...the capability to dramatically change current global energy production and consumption to offset the impact of Peak Oil" does not equate to actually doing it. Therein lies the rub...
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 15:49:08

davep wrote: Having "...the capability to dramatically change current global energy production and consumption to offset the impact of Peak Oil" does not equate to actually doing it. Therein lies the rub...


Thanks for the clarity on that.

I was trying to address both the "capability" and the actual move towards "change".

I don't see either on the horizon.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby davep » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 16:20:39

MonteQuest wrote:I was trying to address both the "capability" and the actual move towards "change".

I don't see either on the horizon.


The capability is self-evidently there. A rankine cycle generator powered by solar for electric cars etc is proven technology. Something like vanadium redox could be used to store the power when the sun isn't shining (this is less proven, but lead acid or thermal storage could be used at a pinch).

It's just not going to happen without the political will.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby davep » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 16:25:13

To clarify:

“Every year, each square kilometre of hot desert receives solar energy equivalent to 1.5 million barrels of oil. Multiplying by the area of deserts world-wide, this is nearly a thousand times the entire current energy consumption of the world.”

- TREC, Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 17:38:25

davep wrote: The capability is self-evidently there.


But the time to scale up is not, that is self evident as well.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 17:45:21

davep wrote:To clarify:

“Every year, each square kilometre of hot desert receives solar energy equivalent to 1.5 million barrels of oil. Multiplying by the area of deserts world-wide, this is nearly a thousand times the entire current energy consumption of the world.”

- TREC, Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation


All all that solar energy currently is being used for other purposes. Just because it is a desert does not detract from it's value to our ecosystem, or mean we can just cover it with solar panels and windmills.

Edward Abbey once wrote of Canyonlands National Park: "...The least inhabited, least inhibited, least improved, least civilized...most grim bleak barren desolate and savage quarter of the state of Utah—the best by far." Like Abbey, I, too, love the desert. The desert visitor tends not to revere the desert as he would the green pine forest. Thus, as a result of unintentional bias, the more fragile desert plays second fiddle. If you can't handle the hard facts of solitude, searing heat, and scarce water; you are not likely to smell the flowers.

We already appropriate 40% of the NPP. How much more can we take from the energy stream that flows through nature and gives us the ecological balances and our temperate climate? We've seen what excess CO2 has done.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby davep » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 17:49:24

MonteQuest wrote:
davep wrote: The capability is self-evidently there.


But the time to scale up is not, that is self evident as well.


I don't know. If there was a sudden change in the honesty levels of world leaders and they instigated some sort of Manhatten project to harness the solar energy, there's a chance it would work in time. None of us know the exact timings and the short term effects of peak oil (beyond from demand destruction and price rises), so exclaiming that we defintely could or couldn't achieve an infrastructure change strikes me as crystal ball gazing spun as fact.

I just don't see the powers that be doing enough until it IS too late.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 17:53:32

davep wrote: I don't know. If there was a sudden change in the honesty levels of world leaders and they instigated some sort of Manhatten project to harness the solar energy, there's a chance it would work in time. None of us know the exact timings and the short term effects of peak oil (beyond from demand destruction and price rises), so exclaiming that we defintely could or couldn't achieve an infrastructure change strikes me as crystal ball gazing spun as fact.


So, you see the Hirsch Report as crystal ball gazing? How far off could that assessment be? It assumed a Manhattan style crash program.

10 to 20 years is a pretty broad gaze, I would think.

Or do you see PO not happening for 10 to 20 years?
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby davep » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 17:57:29

MonteQuest wrote:
davep wrote:To clarify:

“Every year, each square kilometre of hot desert receives solar energy equivalent to 1.5 million barrels of oil. Multiplying by the area of deserts world-wide, this is nearly a thousand times the entire current energy consumption of the world.”

- TREC, Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation


All all that solar energy currently is being used for other purposes. Just because it is a desert does not detract from it's value to our ecosystem, or mean we can just cover it with solar panels and windmills.

Edward Abbey once wrote of Canyonlands National Park: "...The least inhabited, least inhibited, least improved, least civilized...most grim bleak barren desolate and savage quarter of the state of Utah—the best by far." Like Abbey, I, too, love the desert. The desert visitor tends not to revere the desert as he would the green pine forest. Thus, as a result of unintentional bias, the more fragile desert plays second fiddle. If you can't handle the hard facts of solitude, searing heat, and scarce water; you are not likely to smell the flowers.

We already appropriate 40% of the NPP. How much more can we take from the energy stream that flows through nature and gives us the ecological balances and our temperate climate? We've seen what excess CO2 has done.


That's a totally different argument...

"How much more can we take from the energy stream that flows through nature and gives us the ecological balances and our temperate climate?"

I don't think using solar energy equates to NPP at all. We would be using an insignificant level of world total insolation. There is a slight risk of temperature rising due to harnessing the energy that may otherwise be lost back to space. This vanishingly small compared to other factors such as melting ice caps.

As for whether deserts are worth preserving, this is to an extent irrelevant. The above was an example of available energy. It could be possible to harness the energy from the ocean (or above the clouds), but the best approach would be cheap small scale local production.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby davep » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 18:01:53

MonteQuest wrote:So, you see the Hirsch Report as crystal ball gazing? How far off could that assessment be? It assumed a Manhattan style crash program.

10 to 20 years is a pretty broad gaze, I would think.

Or do you see PO not happening for 10 to 20 years?


What measures did it consider in the crash program? If we as a society can currently produce any old crap when the consumer demand is there, producing a cheap solar stirling solution with incentives for individuals to tie back into the grid shouldn't take long to massively affect power production. It certainly wouldn't take 10 years.

Obviously this is only a part of a bigger solution. But if we harnessed existing electrical car technology with the above, the end of suburbia would be that little bit further off.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby davep » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 18:12:17

Whether we want to sustain the world's population with such techno-fixes is another question. But if those fixes are genuinely sustainable, then we can say that the carrying capacity of the earth is higher than it would be without them.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby davep » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 18:17:39

So, you see the Hirsch Report as crystal ball gazing?


This kind of report IS crystal ball gazing to an extent. It can only give a rough estimate of how things will pan out due to the number of variables in play.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 18:18:00

davep wrote: I don't think using solar energy equates to NPP at all. We would be using an insignificant level of world total insolation. There is a slight risk of temperature rising due to harnessing the energy that may otherwise be lost back to space. This vanishingly small compared to other factors such as melting ice caps.


Didn't say it did. NPP relates to photosynthetic production, but it still is part of the solar energy stream that flows through nature.

And insignificant?

That's what they said about dumping wastes into the rivers, or pumping CO2 into the air.

This man thinks it wouldn't be "insignificant."

Similarly, if humans divert a fraction of solar energy away from the environment to create ordered structures for their own purposes (i.e., houses, appliances, transportation infrastructure, communication systems, etc.), less energy is available to maintain highlyordered dissipative structures in nature. The disturbance of these structures translates into the various environmental impacts that are associated with renewable energy generation.
Limits to Sustainability
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 18:20:01

davep wrote: What measures did it consider in the crash program?


Have you not read the entire report?

Renewable energy systems weren't even considered, nor were conservation or efficiency gains.

Why?

Inconsequential.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 18:24:52

davep wrote:Whether we want to sustain the world's population with such techno-fixes is another question. But if those fixes are genuinely sustainable, then we can say that the carrying capacity of the earth is higher than it would be without them.


According to the leading pherologists, the earth's carrying capacity is about 2 to 3 billion people using sustainable systems.

Techno-fixes help sustain overshoot.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 18:27:16

davep wrote:
So, you see the Hirsch Report as crystal ball gazing?


This kind of report IS crystal ball gazing to an extent. It can only give a rough estimate of how things will pan out due to the number of variables in play.


Ok, so how many years pre-peak do we need to mitigate it?

And when is the peak coming?
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby davep » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 18:30:10

MonteQuest wrote:This man thinks it wouldn't be "insignificant."

Similarly, if humans divert a fraction of solar energy away from the environment to create ordered structures for their own purposes (i.e., houses, appliances, transportation infrastructure, communication systems, etc.), less energy is available to maintain highlyordered dissipative structures in nature. The disturbance of these structures translates into the various environmental impacts that are associated with renewable energy generation.
Limits to Sustainability


Frankly, that's a load of bollocks when taken in isolation. He's merely referring to the inability of that sunlight to get to species at the start of the ecosystem by referring to the second law of thermodynamics

"Thus, the second law of thermodynamics dictates that it
is impossible to avoid environmental impacts (disorder)
when diverting solar energy for human purposes."

We could easily outweigh any solar use from energy production by replanting wooded areas and getting rid of asphalted roads.

Also "Pimentel et al. (1994) have estimated that ca. 20%
of the U.S. land area would have to be dedicated to solar
energy generation to produce 37 quads (10.7 · 1012 kWh),
which is only ca. 40% of current total U.S. energy demand." is more than suspect. If the report is based on this kind of statement, I'd be inclined to question who was pulling the strings.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby davep » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 18:32:49

MonteQuest wrote:
davep wrote: What measures did it consider in the crash program?


Have you not read the entire report?

Renewable energy systems weren't even considered, nor were conservation or efficiency gains.

Why?

Inconsequential.


Well obviously not, if
“The sun provides the Earth with more energy in an hour than the globe consumes in fossil energy in a year.”
- James Barber, professor of biochemistry at Imperial College, London


So the report can be dismissed because it didn't look at sustainables at all. Therefore it is nothing more than myopic crystal ball gazing.
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