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Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 09:05:27

Omnitir wrote: I don't know MQ, these comments seem to be inferring something of the sort:
MonteQuest wrote:You fail to grasp that it is not in our best interest as a species to avoid a die-off.

MonteQuest wrote:A die-off is necessary.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic10962-0-asc-510.html

These are but two snippets from your very large die-off shtick. You frequently infer, sometimes downright argue, that any attempt at continuing civilization will only result in a larger die-off and is therefore undesirable. How can we not conclude that you believe that civilization needs to die?


Any species in overshoot will suffer a population crash to regain balance with it's environment. That is the way nature works. To attempt to make an end-run around the corrective forces of nature will make the correction even more severe when it comes. If we devastate the environment enough, we could face outright extinction. That is the known and observed history of any species in overshoot. We are no different, except we have the hubris to think we are.

That grasp of ecology does not equal we "deserve" to die-off.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby PraiseDoom » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 09:06:23

MonteQuest wrote:
PraiseDoom wrote: SSHHHH!!!! You aren't supposed to notice!! How are the regulars supposed to feel superior to newbies if you keep ruining the ending for them?


If you have nothing to offer but inspid off-topic remarks, then I suggest you bow out.


I have nothing to offer? I offer THE CHURCH OF DOOM!!! It has all the advantages of the cool post apocalypse lifestyle without the nasty reality questions which Matt has currently entangled you with.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 09:10:48

Smudger wrote: the reality is PO will signal the end of the US era, as has happenned for the UK, France etc etc. there will be lots of unemployed, bankrupts etc but the end of civilisation it will not be


A little conservation and there are no limits? :roll:

And what of the 3 billion newcomers, eh?

Their energy needs will be met by a smaller slice of the pie for you?

Nice of you to share with strangers....
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 09:13:00

PraiseDoom wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
PraiseDoom wrote: SSHHHH!!!! You aren't supposed to notice!! How are the regulars supposed to feel superior to newbies if you keep ruining the ending for them?


If you have nothing to offer but inspid off-topic remarks, then I suggest you bow out.


I have nothing to offer? I offer THE CHURCH OF DOOM!!! It has all the advantages of the cool post apocalypse lifestyle without the nasty reality questions which Matt has currently entangled you with.


Then post it elsewhere. You are not contributing to the current thread.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 10:22:30

Praisedoom lives in a free-floating world of products and entertainment little touched by the reality of their creation. The minerals, food, and labor that make this life possible are essentially dead to him. He is isolated and believes he is the measure of all people. He think his personal experience is the gauge to measure the effects of oil depletion. His TV and the internet tell him this. But it is not so.

In reality Praisedoom is a kept poodle, kind of a soft fluffy white house pet version of the Matrix Babies, bred and groomed for one purpose--to suck toys off the Product Tit. Praisedoom is an American consumer intentionally kept ignorant and in a perpetual state of product hunger because this drives the wheels of commerce--in China.

It is difficult to argue with a child. I think Praisedoom is ReserveGrowthDroolz returned.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby thuja » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 10:34:29

Wait- I know- using Praise Doom's logic, Peak Oil has had no ascertainable side effects. Thus, we shouldn't be getting into a tizzy about it. Using his logic there really is nothing to worry about.

And if we don't have to worry, then why consider what happens when the peak plateau that we are in, turns into a never ending descent in production, year after year after year. That shouldn't be a problem either- unless you are some sort of culty apocolyptic kook.

Nope, using Matt and PD's logic, you shouldn't worry your pretty little head about this...because no discernable change has occured at the very peak of production.

Oh but forget that 350% rise in oil prices in the last 5 years (20$-70$/brrl). Forget the crippling of the airline industry, the US automotive industry, the demand destruction happening in Third World countries, the inflation in prices of most industrial manufactured goods. Forget the rise in anger of a significant portion of the First World at the rising gas prices, the shift towards ethanol that has caused a subsequent leap in price of corn and thus meat.

No no- ignore all that- nothing has been going on in this plateau phase. And if nothing is going on, then you really don't have to worry about what will happen when that plateau turns into a descending line...

Lets see- four words...head in the sand
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 13:14:22

thuja wrote: And if we don't have to worry, then why consider what happens when the peak plateau that we are in, turns into a never ending descent in production, year after year after year.


And isn't this quite the point?

Isn't it rather a poor strawman argument to state, that the day after, the week after, or the month after the July 2006 peak of all liquids that the world must end, we must have hyper-inflation, massive unemployment, and the crash of the stock market...or the doomers are wrong...see nothing happened?

What's up?

If we find that in fact, July 4th, 2006 was the peak of all time oil production, why didn't things go to hell in a hand basket?

Haven't we seen demand destruction in the poorer countries freeing up supply for the affluent ones?

Yes.

Haven't we been ramping up biofuels to ease the demand on oil?

Yes.

Haven't we been drawing down stocks of oil and gasoline to meet demand?

Yes.

Aren't there some alternative forms of energy displacing oil use?

Yes.

Aren't we on a plateau of oil production where the above mitigations can just meet demand while running up the price?

Yes.

Can the above mitigate peak oil when we start down the slippery slope of decline?

Perhaps at first....

But we don't know how steep the decline will be.

If suddenly, everyone decides to go solar, won't it be like buying ice or generators during a hurricane?

Better be the first in line, or you won't get one or the price will be more than you will be willing to, or can afford to, pay.

So please, stop with these strawman arguments that peak oil has come and gone two years hence and no effects.

Are you trying to say their won't be any?

We can just party on?

What is your point?

Please....
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby azreal60 » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 13:33:38

I didn't start reading this debate after the 3rd page till now, because I had other posts to read and sleep to catch up on.

Much to my chargrin.

I must say, the Montequest-davep and to some degree Otimar debate was one of the most interesting and more importantly least ad hom filled I've seen. I have to give you kudos for that, I could actually read it for content and not for moderation.

I have to take the middle of the road here. Monte, they are right that, given the stipulations they imply, solar Can do the replacement of liquid fuels to some degree. davep and Otimar, your ignoring, well, davep mentioned it, the fact that we, as a society, Won't. Your arguing over each other to some degree. But the arguement was worth it despite that, simply for it's quality.

Praisedoom, you on the otherhand are like the court jester dancing around while the great debates go on in the senate. I have this feeling your not reservegrowthrules as pstarr implied, simply because he was never that funny. On the other hand Praisedoom, your being silly. Yes, I'm sure Some people aware of peakoil made silly predictions that wheren't all the way thought thru, and where later proven wrong by time passing. Something about predictions, they are made with certain assumptions. If one of those assumptions is wrong, it can throw off the whole prediction. The thing about assumptions though, you can to some degree predict how likely they are to be wrong. What it comes down too is this.

Your arguement is like a table. The assumptions are the legs. How strong those legs are defines how strong the table is. Some people have made silly arguments about how fast peakoil's effects are going to be seen. And by who. It's pretty evident if I lived in africa, peakoil is right now effecting me. If I live in america it is as well, but it's not yet hard enough that it hurts. In africa, they are already feeling the pain. So if you lived in Africa, you wouldn't be lamenting the lack of obvious doom about. It would be there. Here, we won't really really feel it for a few years. And MSN only informed people won't really feel it for probably 3 to 4 years. Maybe less depending. Peakoil is an event that's time scale is a bit bigger than the days to weeks that you wish for. Sometimes you just gotta wait. Personally, I'm glad for it. More time to prepare.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 15:56:35

azreal60 wrote: Monte, they are right that, given the stipulations they imply, solar Can do the replacement of liquid fuels to some degree.


No one disputes that.

But to say we can ramp up solar to produce 100% of our electricity in 25 years?

When pigs fly...

Let's examine some rather obvious facts.

No major player, govt or private enterprise, has any long-term plan or investment for a massive scale up of of solar/wind or any other renewable energy regime.

Why not?

1. Peak oil is 20 to 30 years out?

2. Cannot meet the short-term needs of a hydrocarbon based society with peak oil on the horizon?

3. Or both?

Exxon, and the other oil giants, are labeled self-serving interests.

The Hirsch Report is labeled flawed because it doesn't offer solar/wind as a viable mitigation wedge.

They are not considered because they can't do the job. Neither can conservation or efficiency gains.

What's the job? Mitigate peak oil short-term.

Only more oil can mitigate peak oil short-term. Hence: Iraq, ethanol, CTL, LNG imports.

That's the current plan that is being executed. Resource wars and burn our food.

Here's my take: We will dig up and burn shale before we will ramp up solar technologies.

Or, to be more precise: we will continue to extract hydrocarbons to burn for energy, at any EROEI, as that is what our distribution systems and machines run on. Period.

Especially, our war machine.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby PraiseDoom » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 19:06:00

azreal60 wrote:
Praisedoom, you on the otherhand are like the court jester dancing around while the great debates go on in the senate. I have this feeling your not reservegrowthrules as pstarr implied, simply because he was never that funny. On the other hand Praisedoom, your being silly.


SOMEBODY has to find humor in all of this, nicht wahr? It IS kinda funny....Monte for the life of him just doesn't want to bring himself to say what "overshoot" really means...it means large numbers of his neighbors get to DIE. According to the Prophet Duncan...SOON. And what does Monte do for a living? BUILDS HOUSES. Talk about whistling past the grave.....seriously....its either be the court jester or stand around CRYING about both the hypocrisy contained within the Doomer movement or at least make some fun of it and keep my blood pressure down.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby PraiseDoom » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 19:11:51

MonteQuest wrote:
Any species in overshoot will suffer a population crash to regain balance with it's environment. That is the way nature works.
That grasp of ecology does not equal we "deserve" to die-off.


Then SAY it already Monte....large groups of us get to DIE. Being all dry and artsy fartsy about it is amusing, but come on, you can say it, large numbers of people are going to be croaking all over the place, probably in nasty and evil ways as they shoot/stab/starve themselves, each other, their neighbors, their favorite construction workers, etc etc.

Its just really a matter of degree and timing apparently, now that most of us agree that Peak has happened, and we're just waiting around for the other shoe to drop.

Am I wrong here? Is this not what this entire website has been built for? To discuss first if Peak mattered and has happened, and now that it has at the very least happened, its all about the other shoe. If I'm wrong I'll gladly wander off to somewhere else...but I really don't think I am wrong, or even off topic in this particular case.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 19:21:53

PraiseDoom wrote: And what does Monte do for a living? BUILDS HOUSES. Talk about whistling past the grave.....seriously....its either be the court jester or stand around CRYING about both the hypocrisy contained within the Doomer movement or at least make some fun of it and keep my blood pressure down.


No, I am a remodeling contractor. I don't build new houses, I remodel older houses to be more "green" and energy efficient. Click on the link in my signature and read "About Us" at the website.

As the website admin for an organization devoted to sustainable building and living, I fail to see the hypocrisy.

You sir, are the same as a troll.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 19:45:24

there can be no doubt PD is Reservegrowthdroolz. The avatar is virtually the same--just a different smirk.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby thuja » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 20:16:15

PraiseDoom wrote:
Then SAY it already Monte....large groups of us get to DIE. Being all dry and artsy fartsy about it is amusing, but come on, you can say it, large numbers of people are going to be croaking all over the place, probably in and evil ways as they shoot/stab/starve themselves, each other, their neighbors, their favorite construction workers, etc etc.

Its just really a matter of degree and timing apparently, now that most of us agree that Peak has happened, and we're just waiting around for the other shoe to drop.

Am I wrong here? Is this not what this entire website has been built for? To discuss first if Peak mattered and has happened, and now that it has at the very least happened, its all about the other shoe. If I'm wrong I'll gladly wander off to somewhere else...but I really don't think I am wrong, or even off topic in this particular case.

SOMEBODY has to find humor in all of this, nicht wahr? It IS kinda funny....Monte for the life of him just doesn't want to bring himself to say what "overshoot" really means...it means large numbers of his neighbors get to DIE. According to the Prophet Duncan...SOON. And what does Monte do for a living? BUILDS HOUSES. Talk about whistling past the grave.....seriously....its either be the court jester or stand around CRYING about both the hypocrisy contained within the Doomer movement or at least make some fun of it and keep my pressure down.


Ah- I see- this is the nub of PD's problem- the Die-off issue- he's terribly grumpy with the idea that nature has limitations and that humans are subject to those same limitations. He has an awfully difficult time seeing the world in terms of big words such as ecology, bioregions, carrying capacity and finite resources. He has such a difficult time dealing with these big words that he is ready to find out what the folks talking about this do for a living as a way to change the argument and make a personal attack....wow...

Listen PD, none of us here are eagerly waiting a die-off just as none of us are salivating watching pictures from Darfur, Somalia or Iraq. Most of us would like to mitigate the problems so that the return to carrying capacity is a slow and steady process with the least amount of chaos. But to a man (or woman), we tend to be realists. We tend to acknowlege history and the dark side of the human impulse in times of crisis. We are realistic and therefore we tend to prepare for a world in which an orderly transition is unlikely.

So yes, we are believers in biology and the principles of nature. We see that a species that have overshot the carrying capacity of its domicile must inevitably die-off and return to a population level in sync with its environs.

Please man- if you are going to insult MQ by making fun of his profession go somewhere else. I have no problem with debate, but I do have a problem with people who can't debate well and then shoot the messenger.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby Omnitir » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 20:19:45

MQ on solar;
MonteQuest wrote:
They are not considered because they can't do the job. Neither can conservation or efficiency gains.

What's the job? Mitigate peak oil short-term.

Only more oil can mitigate peak oil short-term.

Guess what? I agree with you.

This is why I visit this site, because I’m concerned about the short/medium term, though I think there is a reasonable chance that we will be okay in the long term. Though I think it’s going to be an ‘interesting’ road in the short-term.

Why do I think we will be okay in the long-term? Obviously I’m very pro-technology, but unlike many doomers, I think a serious case can be made for the continuing progress of science and technology, even in a declining energy environment. The historic example of this is the Great Depression and WWII, which both saw smooth sailing for science and technology. Even war torn, energy starved Germany saw progress smoothly advancing, right up to the end of the war. Any theory on energy decline eventually causing a halt to progress is pure speculation, and even if accurate, how long will it take to stop the immense inertia of scientific progress? Less than 25 years?

Another reason progress will continue;
MonteQuest wrote:If suddenly, everyone decides to go solar, won't it be like buying ice or generators during a hurricane?

So now we’ve got all these PO problems unfolding, not to mention the increasingly difficult to ignore signs of climate change, and the demand for solar is skyrocketing. Like buying ice or generators during a hurricane, most people are going without, but that’s besides the point. During the surge in demand, solar continues to grow, continuing to follow these very early stages of its exponential curve.

The thing about solar is though, is that it’s unlike any other energy technology in that it has a remarkably short learning rate (it’s more in line with the learning rate of things like electronics and computers). While Nuclear or coal or even smaller renewables all take many years, often decades, for design changes to be implemented, solar, partly because it is always implemented in much smaller numbers, can bring about design changes in a number of weeks (and the rate of this change is of course accelerating).

Now an ecologist especially should be able to see why this is so important; it’s exactly like in biology, if you have an established and successful species that is not undergoing rapid change through a process of natural selection (which in this analogy are the coal, nuclear, NG, and all the other established power generation technologies), and then you’ve got this one little, seemingly insignificant species that is undergoing exceptionally rapid change through natural selection (analogous with solar). The species in this hypothetical natural environment (or it’s descendents anyway) rapidly (rapid in the natural history sense) rises to become the dominant species in the environment. Just as with such a rapid learning curve as solar, it will rapidly “evolve” to become the dominant energy technology, thanks to its rapid learning rate.

And given that we can expect demand for solar to be beyond supply for the foreseeable future, it’s unlikely that it will stop evolving. Even in economic collapse, and in an energy starved environment (in fact perhaps because of these), there will be much incentive to invest in solar and develop the latest improvement to the design.

And so eventually, probably after several decades of post PO hardship, we will likely end up with advanced solar technology that can easily and cheaply be rolled out and finally meet the worlds energy needs. Though by this stage, solar would be very unlike its distant ancestors that we know today. Given enough technological evolution, solar technology will be cheaply and easily producible, scalable, and with enough of it, a suitable energy source to produce a liquid fuel for replacing petroleum/gasoline.

Of course this is just my logic, which I’m sure you can all pick holes in, and at the very least can argue that since I can’t point to any studies that include accelerating growth and theories of technological evolution into their projections that I must clearly be wrong. Though this would not be the first time that industry experts have failed to appreciate the rate of accelerating progress when making projections of a technologies future uptake.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby PraiseDoom » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 23:21:54

MonteQuest wrote:
As the website admin for an organization devoted to sustainable building and living, I fail to see the hypocrisy.



While you are making houses "greener" do you happen to mention to the people who write you checks that you think they are going to die soon because of basic ecological principles? More efficient windows notwithstanding? All triggered by an event a year in the past which was so earth shaking the only people who have noticed the awesome consequences of are those of us with active imaginations and way too much time on our hands?
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 23:56:48

PraiseDoom wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
As the website admin for an organization devoted to sustainable building and living, I fail to see the hypocrisy.



While you are making houses "greener" do you happen to mention to the people who write you checks that you think they are going to die soon because of basic ecological principles? More efficient windows notwithstanding? All triggered by an event a year in the past which was so earth shaking the only people who have noticed the awesome consequences of are those of us with active imaginations and way too much time on our hands?
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 23 Jun 2007, 00:00:03

Omnitir wrote: Why do I think we will be okay in the long-term? Obviously I’m very pro-technology, but unlike many doomers, I think a serious case can be made for the continuing progress of science and technology, even in a declining energy environment. The historic example of this is the Great Depression and WWII, which both saw smooth sailing for science and technology.


The Great Depression and WWII were times of a declining energy environment?

You are kidding, right?

We were literally awash in energy; from Hoover and Grand Coulee Dams for generating electricity to make aluminum (which many cite as principal players in why we won the war) to the peak in oil discovery in 1930, a year before the Great Depression set in.

Besides, this is not about whether or not technology can advance, it 's about whether or not any technological advance is even a viable solution.

We are beyond the limits. We are in overshoot.

What sense is there to try and find a way to stay beyond the limits?

Rather selfish and short-sighted thinking, I would posit.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 23 Jun 2007, 00:15:21

Omnitir wrote:And given that we can expect demand for solar to be beyond supply for the foreseeable future, it’s unlikely that it will stop evolving. Even in economic collapse, and in an energy starved environment (in fact perhaps because of these), there will be much incentive to invest in solar and develop the latest improvement to the design.


Invest in solar? You mean make money without working? Post -peak, I think those days are numbered.

In an economic collapse and a starved energy environment, what energy is available will be directed at feeding people and keeping the wheels on civilization.

And so eventually, probably after several decades of post PO hardship, we will likely end up with advanced solar technology that can easily and cheaply be rolled out and finally meet the worlds energy needs. Though by this stage, solar would be very unlike its distant ancestors that we know today. Given enough technological evolution, solar technology will be cheaply and easily producible, scalable, and with enough of it, a suitable energy source to produce a liquid fuel for replacing petroleum/gasoline.


And upon what abundant energy platform will you stand to build these marvels of science?

We have a one-shot chance at making the right choices. It would behoove us to be humble before nature and powerdown, not up.

“Within a period of time which is very short compared with the total span of human history, supplies of fossil fuels will almost certainly be exhausted. This loss will make man completely dependent upon waterpower, atomic energy, and solar energy for driving his machines.

There are no fundamental physical laws which prevent such a transition, and it is quite possible that society will be able to make the change smoothly.

But it is a transition that will happen only once during the lifetime of the human species...if machine civilization should, because of some catastrophe, stop functioning, it will probably never again come into existence.” Harrison Brown -1954
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 23 Jun 2007, 00:19:45

PraiseDoom wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
As the website admin for an organization devoted to sustainable building and living, I fail to see the hypocrisy.



While you are making houses "greener" do you happen to mention to the people who write you checks that you think they are going to die soon because of basic ecological principles? More efficient windows notwithstanding? All triggered by an event a year in the past which was so earth shaking the only people who have noticed the awesome consequences of are those of us with active imaginations and way too much time on our hands?


I invite you to read my blog over the next few months and see for yourself.

You wish to bash me, I suggest you do so in the HOF.
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