MonteQuest wrote:PraiseDoom wrote: Strawman. No one says the gap needs closed overnight. As evidenced by us being 2 years post peak and we still have enough fuel around, even with China's increased demand, for mindless consumers to continue mindlessly consuming.
Strawman? With wind/solar less than 1% of our primary energy?
Thats not the strawman, inserting the words "closing the gap almost overnight" is the problem. Who says it needs to happen overnight, as evidenced by my observation that some 2 years post peak, we can still use crude products in frivilous and silly ways, something which it can be assumed will stop when people can't afford to be so frivilous and silly?
And lets not forget the power of exponential growth, one of those tricky little buggers which us Doomers have used so well against the clueless, and now can be used against us!! ( How unfair is THAT! ) For example, 10 years ago, there were no hybrids, and Toyota has sold a million of the silly things already!! And in an energy declining environment no less!! Talk about exponential growth! Another few years and everything will be hybrids!
I am disturbed as you about the unfairness of this observation of course.
MonteQuest wrote:
We don't know if the gap will need to be closed almost overnight. When the oil crisis hit in the 70's, it changed things overnight, and that was only a 5% shortfall.
It sure did change things....how do you think we got hybrids NOW....because someone wished we had some THEN.
And I might mention, when you say "it changed things overnight", you'll forgive me for noticing I still went to school, grandma still fueled the car, went to market, I know people were whining about fuel costs and rationing but it sure wasn't that big of a deal from my point of view.
MonteQuest wrote:
Currently, we are drawing down stock inventories and pricing many out of the oil game to meet demand.
Darn straight. Which is what makes the last 2 years so crazy.
MonteQuest wrote:
If the decline trend of 8% we are seeing continues, half of the oil will be gone in less than 9 years.
I call that almost overnight.
Oh. Well. Theres the problem. I figured "almost overnight" was like maybe a week or two, tops.
And I worry about that 8% as well, it keeps me up nights with the rifle scoping out the street waiting for the zombies to realize whats been going on .
MonteQuest wrote:
If you like the current existing fields decline rate of 5%, then we have 14 years. Still almost overnight.
Peak oil is tomorrow in planning terms, that is the point I was making.
14 years is too long. I've already maxxed out the credit cards buying supplies for this summers Gorge event.
MonteQuest wrote:
And even if we are able to scale up solar and ramp up hydrogen for liquids fuel, it won't be as cheap, as portable, as readily available, or as safe as gasoline.
And it must be.
Or the house of cards comes down.
Peak oil is an economics crisis first and foremost.
Of course. But I need it to come down NOW, this entire thing is taking WAY too long.