[JohnConnor]

Pressure tends to focus the mind - I think Americans would grasp growing their own food quickly (it would still be painful and difficult but would get done) and good point on the Visigoths. A similair situation as the Romans had exhausted their primary fuel source (wood) and the cascading error was quickly spreading through their society, causing them to all kinds of irrational, short-sighted, self-destructive behaviour.

I think I made the mistake of implying that we should be wary of Mexico in the sense that this probable event (mass migration caused by the chaos of peak oil) is something we should not try to prepare for in a humane way but only with a massive defensive preparation. Just as you can't kill your way out the war on terror (that is a tactic not a strategy) you can't just wall yourself in and hope it just goes away outside your borders, border control is a tactic to be used in the strategy of dealing with the MASSIVE and complex problem of resource/energy peak and decline through preparations that allow you to handle the symptoms in a mangable sequence and order.

We can solve our problems, just not all at once.

[rangerone314]

Pressure tends to focus the mind - I think Americans would grasp growing their own food quickly (it would still be painful and difficult but would get done) and good point on the Visigoths. A similair situation as the Romans had exhausted their primary fuel source (wood) and the cascading error was quickly spreading through their society, causing them to all kinds of irrational, short-sighted, self-destructive behaviour.

I think I made the mistake of implying that we should be wary of Mexico in the sense that this probable event (mass migration caused by the chaos of peak oil) is something we should not try to prepare for in a humane way but only with a massive defensive preparation. Just as you can't kill your way out the war on terror (that is a tactic not a strategy) you can't just wall yourself in and hope it just goes away outside your borders, border control is a tactic to be used in the strategy of dealing with the MASSIVE and complex problem of resource/energy peak and decline through preparations that allow you to handle the symptoms in a mangable sequence and order.

We can solve our problems, just not all at once.

I think Peak Oil will CHANGE the dynamic of immigration. Right now, it could probably be handled by attacking the root of the problem: American corps & well-to-do people hiring illegals. As much as it offends my libertarian-leaning sentiments, a national citizenship ID card would probably help. Then penalize corps & people who hire illegals, perhaps to the tune of $100,000 per illegal. Award a finder's fee to illegals who turn in their employers, perhaps $20,000... then send them back to Mexico. No amnesty for illegals and we put an amendment in Constitution changing the "born in America automatically citizen" bit.

The problem is peak oil will change the dynamic so that even drying up JOBS here might not stop a general migration. Here is where military force might be needed. A 100,000 troops with UAVs might secure the border & boats could be dealt with by a blockade and aerial surveillance. Instead of warning boats in violation, blasting them from an A-10 Warthog would probably be sufficient.

[Ludi]

The problem is peak oil will change the dynamic so that even drying up JOBS here might not stop a general migration. Here is where military force might be needed. A 100,000 troops with UAVs might secure the border & boats could be dealt with by a blockade and aerial surveillance.

How does that work out with state sovereignty? Do the border states have 100,000 state troops? Or are you saying the Federal Military should secure the border? Do folks want that many federal troops mobilized in their border state?

[JohnConnor]

100K troops with UAVs, naval vessels, ground vehicles, detention centers, return costs, etc... will add up and it does not do anything about solving the problem, a nation next door to us sliding or falling into chaos and its people naturally and understandbly fleeing this to a better situation...

I think that greatly increasing out border patrol force in urban areas with physical barriers, triple the agents and technology, along with about 10K troops patrolling open, sparse areas with the coasts and skies patrolled as required as the first step to be followed the long term strategy:

Negotiate debt forgiveness and assistance for population growth control measures (all US foreign aid/assistance should be based on this).
Negotiate for acess into Mexico's remaining reserves, they get money and we get more fuel to make the transition slightly easier.

What else could be part of a long term powerdown/adaptation arrangement for all of us?

Reducing population has got to become a higher priority (for the USA too) for all nations but especially ones that have "surplus" populations that will risk life and limb to get a job that probably will not pay much. Plus, I really don't want to eat solylent green crackers....

[stu]

Top US official to oversee Mexico border

President Barack Obama's administration will Wednesday name a high-ranking official to deal with illegal immigration and spillover drug violence at the US-Mexico border, an official said.

The announcement, to be made by Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano in Texas will come a day before Obama visits Mexico and after the administration said it would post hundreds of extra agents on the US side of the border.

Napolitano will name former federal prosecutor Alan Bersin to the post, the official from the Department of Homeland Security said on condition of anonymity, ahead of the announcement expected later in Texas.

Mexican detained with anti-aircraft machine gun

Mexican authorities arrested a woman guarding an arsenal that included the first anti-aircraft machine gun seized in Mexico, police said Tuesday, as the army announced the capture of an alleged top drug cartel lieutenant.

The arsenal belonged to a group linked to the powerful Beltran-Leyva drug cartel, federal police coordinator Gen. Rodolfo Cruz said. It also included ammunition, five rifles, a grenade and part of a grenade launcher.

Looks like the cartels have got their hands on some serious weaponry now.

[rangerone314]

100K troops with UAVs, naval vessels, ground vehicles, detention centers, return costs, etc... will add up and it does not do anything about solving the problem, a nation next door to us sliding or falling into chaos and its people naturally and understandbly fleeing this to a better situation...

I think that greatly increasing out border patrol force in urban areas with physical barriers, triple the agents and technology, along with about 10K troops patrolling open, sparse areas with the coasts and skies patrolled as required as the first step to be followed the long term strategy:

Negotiate debt forgiveness and assistance for population growth control measures (all US foreign aid/assistance should be based on this).
Negotiate for acess into Mexico's remaining reserves, they get money and we get more fuel to make the transition slightly easier.

Reducing population has got to become a higher priority (for the USA too) for all nations but especially ones that have "surplus" populations that will risk life and limb to get a job that probably will not pay much. Plus, I really don't want to eat solylent green crackers....

Military deployed on operations in North America would be less costly logistically than overseas. I would fund this partially by using asset forfeiture and penalties on US companies that hire illegals.

("assistance for population growth ")
Mexico has population density of 55/km2 vs 31/km2 for the US. Sounds like they have a little more work to do on population control than US. (not that we don't have work to do on that). Because of religious beliefs, different countries have different levels of population issues... (case study: Thailand-Buddhist vs Philippines-Catholic... 1960: both 27 million, 2000: 76.5 million Philippines vs 61 million Thailand, any questions?) I suppose we should religiously convert Mexico?

To be blunt, to make the world a better place, people in countries like the US and Canada need to learn to buy less c**p at BestBuy and Walmart and less SUVs and McMansions, and people in countries like Mexico and the Philippines need to learn how to keep their zippers zipped and their legs closed.

[rangerone314]

The problem is peak oil will change the dynamic so that even drying up JOBS here might not stop a general migration. Here is where military force might be needed. A 100,000 troops with UAVs might secure the border & boats could be dealt with by a blockade and aerial surveillance.

How does that work out with state sovereignty? Do the border states have 100,000 state troops? Or are you saying the Federal Military should secure the border? Do folks want that many federal troops mobilized in their border state?

The states don't have the resources to deal with the problem, and in fairness they should not have to shoulder the burden alone since the people that flood over the border also go to other states, and it is a nationwide problem.

The border is across 4 states and is 3141 km long. 100,000 troops would average 3 soldiers per km. I don't think the folks would have a lot to worry about.

If the US descends into a post-peak-oil fascist regime in a decade or so, the illegals seized might constitute a good source of slave labor.

If not, good fences make good neighbors. Mexico being for Mexicans and America being for Americans makes life less confusing and less bloody in the future. I'd just as soon not be involved in an ethnic tribal civil war over dwindling resources.

[JohnConnor]

Well - let me throw this out for a possible strategy for dealing with a mass-migration crisis...

Suppose as the crisis unfolds we carve out a new state in Mexico if they refuse to control their border and establish something there that would be far less corrupt and stable?

I will admit our track record recently is not too hot in Iraq and Afghanistan in nation building but we have some wins but besides for either sealing our border while chaos reigns down south, allow some migrants in and resettling them while sealing the border, or perhaps the above option?

[stu]

In Mexico, Obama to offer solidarity in drug war

Confronting a security threat on America's doorstep, President Barack Obama is venturing into the heart of Mexico. His swift diplomatic mission is meant to show solidarity with a neighbor — and to prove that the U.S. is serious about halting the deadly flow of drugs and weapons.

During his stop in Mexico City on Thursday, Obama will emphasize cross-border cooperation and probably put a focus on clean energy, but the economic crisis and the bloody drug trade have set the tone.

[eastbay]

In Mexico, Obama to offer solidarity in drug war

Confronting a security threat on America's doorstep, President Barack Obama is venturing into the heart of Mexico. His swift diplomatic mission is meant to show solidarity with a neighbor — and to prove that the U.S. is serious about halting the deadly flow of drugs and weapons.

During his stop in Mexico City on Thursday, Obama will emphasize cross-border cooperation and probably put a focus on clean energy, but the economic crisis and the bloody drug trade have set the tone.

I'm glad to read Obama is offering solidarity with Mexico in the drug war. But we must keep in mind this is a tradition, not an actual intent to do anything about it. Bush II, Clinton, Bush I, Reagan and, I presume Carter, Ford, Nixon too promised cooperation with Mexico in this effort, and we can expect similar success this time too.

So will the next several presidents.

[stu]

But surely now this is different.

I may not know recent Mexican history that well but with over 6000 dead in turf war related incidents, numerous police officers quitting and the countries finances going to hell due to Cantarells rapid decline I would have thought that action would follow words on this occasion.

[eastbay]

President Nixon's 'Operation Intercept' back in 1969 started this cavalcade of faux cooperation. I-5 even had vehicle stops forcing the traffickers to use other highways. Then we had repeated meaningless efforts through the 70's and 80's culminating in 'Operation Gatekeeper' and 'Operation Hard Line' back in 1995, none of which slowed the flow of dope coming from Mexico.

Bush II tossed cash at Mexico leveling up their military's equipment, some of which has leaked to the gangsters.

Now we have Obama promising to do 'something'. We should read about some costly and well thought out anti-drug 'operation' in the coming months. Just like we've been reading for decades.

Yes, the collapse of the Mexico economy will force some US action. But don't expect success. The problem is simply too great with oil depletion hacking away at them.

[gnm]

The most devastating thing the government could do to the drug cartels would be to legalize the drugs. It would wipe out their profits and ruin their ability to pay off politicians and police.

-G

[Ludi]

The most devastating thing the government could do to the drug cartels would be to legalize the drugs. It would wipe out their profits and ruin their ability to pay off politicians and police.

100% agree. But that would make too much sense. There's a lot of money to be made in the drug war. Folks aren't going to give it up even if it's the sensible thing to do.

[JohnConnor]

Good point gmn...drugs give criminals money, oil gives terrorists (or people/governments that give them money) money and capability...

Of course neither of those would not happen if we (USA, Canada, Europe, Japan, etc...) didn't buy drugs or base our societies on oil but I digress...

So how this?

Tactics and Strategy:
Secure the borders, ports and enforce immigration laws, deport incarcerated criminal aliens.
Link debt and foreign aid to Mexico and Central America to zero/negative population growth.
Decriminalize drugs making the government the drug dealer thereby greatly reducing the money/power of organized crime and terrorists.

If this fails - Plan B can always be put into effect...

Establish a zone of control along our entire southern border about 5 miles wide under the direct control of the US military with martial law put into effect permanently. Mine as required and establish a free-fire policy with no warning.
Establish a new state consisting of the Baja, Sonora, Chihuhua, Cohulia, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas free of the current nation of Mexico.
Establish bases as necessary inside of it and provide support to allow for this new buffer state to be used as a first line of defense.

But this could be all unnecessary... I thought Russia was going to fall with that attempted coup in the late 90's but Yeltsin pulled through, not that they didn't slide into authoritarian rule anyway but in a controlled manner...Calderon may weather this storm and keep Mexico functioning as a viable state...never count a nation out until it actually happens...watch "The Power of Community" about Cuba surviving early Peak Oil...it is amazing that they pulled through (regardless of what we think of their government)...

Also, decriminalizing drugs may happen in this country if we can just convince our drunken sailors called Congress that they will make more money selling drugs directly to our own people who are going to do them whether we want them to or not than receiving contributions from the drug war and prison industrial complex....

[rangerone314]

Good point gmn...drugs give criminals money, oil gives terrorists (or people/governments that give them money) money and capability...

Of course neither of those would not happen if we (USA, Canada, Europe, Japan, etc...) didn't buy drugs or base our societies on oil but I digress...

So how this?

Tactics and Strategy:
Secure the borders, ports and enforce immigration laws, deport incarcerated criminal aliens.
Link debt and foreign aid to Mexico and Central America to zero/negative population growth.
Decriminalize drugs making the government the drug dealer thereby greatly reducing the money/power of organized crime and terrorists.

If this fails - Plan B can always be put into effect...

Establish a zone of control along our entire southern border about 5 miles wide under the direct control of the US military with martial law put into effect permanently. Mine as required and establish a free-fire policy with no warning.
Establish a new state consisting of the Baja, Sonora, Chihuhua, Cohulia, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas free of the current nation of Mexico.
Establish bases as necessary inside of it and provide support to allow for this new buffer state to be used as a first line of defense.

But this could be all unnecessary... I thought Russia was going to fall with that attempted coup in the late 90's but Yeltsin pulled through, not that they didn't slide into authoritarian rule anyway but in a controlled manner...Calderon may weather this storm and keep Mexico functioning as a viable state...never count a nation out until it actually happens...watch "The Power of Community" about Cuba surviving early Peak Oil...it is amazing that they pulled through (regardless of what we think of their government)...

Also, decriminalizing drugs may happen in this country if we can just convince our drunken sailors called Congress that they will make more money selling drugs directly to our own people who are going to do them whether we want them to or not than receiving contributions from the drug war and prison industrial complex....

Very good post... one of the best on the PO forums so far...

There is a Plan C: establish the death penalty for drug use. Execute all illegal drug users... and not with the usual massive wait like they have on death row for murders. You would reduce crime (both violent & property), help stablize Mexico, and reduce expenditures on prison system. You would also (if you executed enough drug abusers) would start the country on the path towards a population closer to its carrying capacity.

[stu]

Mexico seeks tighter lockdown in drug war city

Mexico's government is hiring more police and sending federal agents to the bloody border city of Ciudad Juarez, where it already has thousands of troops trying to quell drug violence.

President Felipe Calderon, who has made crushing drug gangs a central goal of his government, sent 10,000 soldiers and federal police into Ciudad Juarez in March.

[Kylon]

That's a good idea, a combination of legalizing drugs that you can get from the government, and promoting the death penalty for anyone using illegal drugs would stop the drug trade in it's tracks.

Basically if they do heroin, do U.S heroin, or the government kills them.


That would make more money for everyone but the drug lords.

Problem is, I bet those drug lords might be fueling/funding the anti-drug campaigns/legislation. It wouldn't suprise me.

[JohnConnor]

Thanks, but since all our ideas don't make some CEO a $20 million bonus, they have little chance of being enacted...

I guess that has been the worst thing that I have learned about this problem (resource depletion of oil, fresh water, etc...) is that it is caused by economic systems that make a lot of money for some well connected people and until the bitter end, they will continue because it still makes them money... conservation, cooperation and smart planning by the government by their nature don't make these "boom and busters" money so therefore, they are relegated to the sidelines... not trying to be depressing but realistic...

The first book I read about Peak Oil was the "The Long Emergency" coincidentally after I had read "State of Emergency" by Buchanan and I realized that Peak Oil was going to be that which caused the collapse of many made-up nations (ex-colonial states) and other nations that are in precarious situations so after realizing that PO was inevitable, the more interesting question(s) is what problems that come first and how do we prepare? Then further down the rabbit hole...what is the first problem for the USA and how do we deal with it?

I am not exactly sure if the "Great Recession" is the first symptom of PO but maybe then the "Reconquista" will probably follow...so hence this thread about what do we as a nation do?

Ultimately, to get this society and all societies to prepare for a lower energy future we have to figure out someway to make it profitable to conserve energy more than it is already and under control and carefully, contract their populations...ours included...

Adding to our above discussed tactics as part of this strategy, what about paying or debt forgiveness for nations to use a long term contraception on women and men in their primary reproductive years? Offer about $2000-$4000 for a 5-10 year contraceptive treatment, distributed throughout a society by all classes and off & on certain years to make for smooth demographic change rather a precipitous one with the goal of about -0.5 to -1% population change per year...

We try to control everything else on Earth, why not our numbers?

[stu]

Grisly slayings brings Mexican drug war to US

Five men dead in an apartment. In a county that might see five homicides in an entire year, the call over the sheriff's radio revealed little about what awaited law enforcement at a sprawling apartment complex.

A type of crime, and criminal, once foreign to this landscape of blooming dogwoods had arrived in Shelby County. Sheriff Chris Curry felt it even before he laid eyes on the grisly scene. He called the state. The FBI. The DEA. Anyone he could think of.

"I don't know what I've got," he warned them. "But I'm gonna need help."