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Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 03 Feb 2018, 11:21:11

GHung wrote:Not that Adams response had anything to do with the conversation. Maybe we can start reducing population by subtracting a few zeros as well. Or reduce CO2 by moving a decimal point.


The title of the thread is peak demand theory. Not whatever nonsense you want to discuss about population or CO2. And guess what? Not only does Tony say it is going to happen, but given the world's penchant for wanting to move away from fossil fuels, but so does XOM.

If any of these ideas are too difficult, feel free to ask your uncle to explain them to you. :lol:
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby GHung » Sat 03 Feb 2018, 12:06:10

AdamB wrote:
GHung wrote:Not that Adams response had anything to do with the conversation. Maybe we can start reducing population by subtracting a few zeros as well. Or reduce CO2 by moving a decimal point.


The title of the thread is peak demand theory. Not whatever nonsense you want to discuss about population or CO2. And guess what? Not only does Tony say it is going to happen, but given the world's penchant for wanting to move away from fossil fuels, but so does XOM.

If any of these ideas are too difficult, feel free to ask your uncle to explain them to you. :lol:


A lot of things affect demand; population, weather, a complex system of interconnected/interdependent economic factors....

If any of these ideas are too difficult, feel free to ask anyone paying attention to explain them to you. Or LOL all you want. Means little to me. 8O

You linear, non-systems thinkers are a riot sometimes.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 03 Feb 2018, 12:14:22

Demand not just for oil but for various resources will eventually go down, but not in the way most imagine.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 03 Feb 2018, 13:48:46

Yes Adam likes to think we can innovate and utilize technology to prolong the Economic juggernaught of modern industrial civilization. And what Ralfy, Ghung, me and others are saying is it WILL NOT work that way. We are NOT God, we cannot create breathable air, fresh water, arable soil and other resources out of thin air. Nor an energy source as advantageous as Oil either. So at some point Mother Nature will not cooperate with our haughty expectations and it sure is showing signs of already being reluctant. But of course it seems some of the optimists here seem to be disciples of Julian Simon who believes that as long as we have plenty of humans we can have continue growing because human ingenuity is the Master Resource. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby baha » Sun 04 Feb 2018, 08:31:46

onlooker wrote:We are NOT God, we cannot create breathable air, fresh water, arable soil and other resources out of thin air.


You're right OL, but god doesn't make that stuff either, Mother Nature does. Out of Sunlight :) All we really have to do is kill off a few billion people and quit making the situation worse. Stop dumping our excess cr@p into the environment and she will recover quickly.

onlooker wrote:Nor an energy source as advantageous as Oil either.


That remains to be seen. There are other ways to store energy. Atomic stores greatly exceed oil and matter/anti-matter greatly exceeds that.

onlooker wrote:But of course it seems some of the optimists here seem to be disciples of Julian Simon who believes that as long as we have plenty of humans we can have continue growing because human ingenuity is the Master Resource.


Human ingenuity is what gave us the petroleum industry. It will give us the next answer. We may not continue to grow but I think we will survive. Some of us anyway :)

I just hope we don't find the next energy source until we have learned to appreciate it and use it in a responsible way. :cry:
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 04 Feb 2018, 08:56:32

Yes Baha, I sound like the eternal pessimist. Some of you are industrious and entrepreneurial people who instinctively feel we humans are capable of great achievements. I guess we all come at these issues from a slightly different vantage point. So, it is good that a mixture of insights and vantage points are represented in these discussions. I wish even more were represented. In the final analysis, nothing is wrong with striving for more and achieving it. However, our species has I believe seriously underestimated, the impact we were going to have on the Earth with our activities and our huge population. And ultimately we are NOT Mother Nature or God , which is to say we must recognize our own limitations in relation to what is possible in this Universe and what is possible for us. It is simply a matter of following the precautionary principle. It is something we all do in our everyday lives by being cautious and making sure of certain things. It is the smart way of acting. Our aspirations tempered by a healthy dose of humility.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby baha » Sun 04 Feb 2018, 09:29:32

Absolutely, we have limitations.

I think solar power is a good representative of that. If you can live cheap and simple you can have all the power you need. If you need $300/month in electricity you better start cracking some atoms...

In the end I think we will learn humility...I did :) And be willing to accept power at the rate Mother Nature wants to give it, not draw from the future or the past. It will be tough but people will make priorities and the refrigerator will get power before the hot tub.

It will be a great achievement and we can all do it.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby GHung » Sun 04 Feb 2018, 10:44:47

baha wrote:..... It will be a great achievement and we can all do it.


Must be nice to ignore that there is no "we" when it comes to acknowledging consequences. The industrial age is littered with unintended and unconsidered consequences that many (most?) folks don't care about or don't have the capacity to address, at least until they become predicaments.

I don't see the can-kicking of consequences slowing at all, at least not on any level that matters.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 04 Feb 2018, 11:12:34

"I don't see the can-kicking of consequences slowing at all"

How do you figure?

Had the fracking boom not happened then I think much of the classic peak-oil end-of-suburbia narrative would have indeed taken place. If not Mad Max doom then something in which the knock-on price of oil was a constant national topic (hopefully more nuanced than Drill Baby Drill).

When it comes to evaluating time, it's highly relative. The pulse of human civilization itself is a blip in geologic timescales. But BAU holding on for an extra 10-20 years makes a huge difference on how someone plans out their life (unless they want to just err on the side of caution and head for the hills anyway).
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby GHung » Sun 04 Feb 2018, 11:36:16

asg70 wrote:"I don't see the can-kicking of consequences slowing at all"

How do you figure?

Had the fracking boom not happened then I think much of the classic peak-oil end-of-suburbia narrative would have indeed taken place. If not Mad Max doom then something in which the knock-on price of oil was a constant national topic (hopefully more nuanced than Drill Baby Drill). ....


Seems you also don't understand the difference between proactive avoidance of consequences (by avoiding consequential behaviors in the first place) and forced reactionary responses. Big difference in mindset and outcomes.

But BAU holding on for an extra 10-20 years makes a huge difference on how someone plans out their life (unless they want to just err on the side of caution and head for the hills anyway).


If BAU continues 10-20 years or longer, my lifestyle won't change much. If BAU implodes, my lifestyle will change less, and in more manageable ways than most of yours'. That's the point. It isn't about "heading to the hills" and living in some bunker. It's about expectations and avoiding traps.

People who don't have mortgages don't worry whether or not they can make this month's mortgage payment. Same with other debts. People who don't have power bills, (or gas bills, or sewer bills, or water bills, etc.) don't have to worry about those things. People who don't need to drive much don't worry much about fuel prices. People who produce much of their food don't have to worry about food shortages so much. These things will be true come BAU or no BAU, because they have created, at least as much is possible, their own BAU, not so dependent on your BAU.
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Peak oil is back and better than ever

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 04 Feb 2018, 23:07:57

Back when oil prices were high, people were talking a lot about peak oil supply — the possibility that we’d run out of new sources of crude oil eventually. But now people are talking about peak oil demand — the possibility that we’ll just stop using the stuff as we come up with better options. Most recently, analysts from Bank of America and Merrill Lynch have predicted that oil consumption will peak by 2030, as electric vehicles become dominant. The (simplified) argument: Right now, batteries make electric vehicles relatively expensive. As battery prices fall, EVs will turn into a bargain and people will start buying them en masse. If 40 percent of new car sales are EVs by 2030, that would be enough to send our oil habit into decline. Most oil companies are planning on demand peaking later — like 2040, 2050, or not at all .


Peak oil is back and better than ever
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Exxon To Produce All Of Its Oil Despite Peak Demand Fears

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 08 Feb 2018, 23:24:29


ExxonMobil was forced to finally acknowledge the possibility that future climate change policy could lead to peak oil demand, a serious threat to the company’s operations over the long-term. In response to a shareholder resolution passed last year, the oil major just released a report that recognizes the danger of peak oil demand. By 2040, climate change policies and regulations could cut into oil demand, leading to a drop in consumption by 20 percent. Under this scenario, oil demand would decline by an average of 0.4 percent per year, with the lower end of the range seeing declines of 1.7 percent per year. This would mean that global oil demand would decline to 78 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2040, down from 95 mb/d in 2016. In the most pessimistic scenario (from the oil industry’s perspective), demand drops to 53 mb/d. It’s a


Exxon To Produce All Of Its Oil Despite Peak Demand Fears
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Shell Says Oil’s Not Going Anywhere

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 09 Mar 2018, 16:17:11


There’ll be at least one home still welcoming fossil fuels in the face of a growing threat from cleaner resources, according to Royal Dutch Shell Plc. Heavy industry relies on hydrocarbons to generate extremely high temperatures and chemical reactions, according to Mark Quartermain, vice president of crude oil trading and supply at the company. Many processes used in iron, steel, cement and plastics factories can’t be electrified at all, and even if they could be, cannot be done at a viable cost in the foreseeable future, he said at a conference in Singapore. A growing body of research is painting a bearish picture for oil beyond the next 20 years, as more electric vehicles hit roads across the globe and engines become more efficient. Rapid adoption could mean demand peaks by the 2030s, according to Bank of America and BP Plc, a


Shell Says Oil’s Not Going Anywhere
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Fri 09 Mar 2018, 18:19:36

You have to notice those articles are all over the place. No one can agree on when or how oil will peak or not peak. It's a big guessing game.

They are starting to realize it could become a runaway freight train. Electric motors have always been superior to ICEs. The pubic may just find that out soon :)

As far as high temperature applications go...don't kid yourself. Electricity can get hot!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arc_flash

Welding arcs can easily turn steel into a liquid with an average of only 24 DC volts. When an uncontrolled arc forms at high voltages, and especially where large supply-wires or high-current conductors are used, arc flashes can produce deafening noises, supersonic concussive-forces, super-heated shrapnel, temperatures far greater than the Sun's surface, and intense, high-energy radiation capable of vaporizing nearby materials.

Now that sounds like fun :)
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Sat 10 Mar 2018, 07:29:12

For those of you who think batteries are the weak link, and anyone cares about energy density, there is something you are missing.

You get what you ask for...

If those $20 trillion are spent on new oil extraction technology, refineries, pipelines, and more efficient IC engines, that's what you'll get...more of the same.

If the $20 trillion is spent on developing 7 phase electric motors, solid brick sodium batteries, PV arrays in the desert, and superconducting transmission lines...That's what you'll get. A movement into the future when oil is long gone and no one cares :)

...but it could be decades until we clean up the mess we've made. We're going to have to get the plastic out of the oceans and the CO2 out of the air.
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 10 Mar 2018, 08:59:15

"...but it could be decades until we clean up the mess we've made. We're going to have to get the plastic out of the oceans and the CO2 out of the air."

This would be the thread for those folks who want to hide their heads in the sand, and pretend that the mere presence of 7.7+ billion humans on this planet is not a fatal problem that will in time destroy the environment.

As if the Overshoot Predator cares whether you acknowledge his presence or not.

Now I will comply with your evident desire to not talk about him, and stay out of the remainder of this thread.

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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 10 Mar 2018, 18:01:01

baha wrote:For those of you who think batteries are the weak link, and anyone cares about energy density, there is something you are missing.

You get what you ask for...

If those $20 trillion are spent on new oil extraction technology, refineries, pipelines, and more efficient IC engines, that's what you'll get...more of the same.

If the $20 trillion is spent on developing 7 phase electric motors, solid brick sodium batteries, PV arrays in the desert, and superconducting transmission lines...That's what you'll get. A movement into the future when oil is long gone and no one cares :)

...but it could be decades until we clean up the mess we've made. We're going to have to get the plastic out of the oceans and the CO2 out of the air.


What affects oil also affects other material resources.
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Projections For Peak Oil Demand Are Overblown

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 14:42:36


(Source: Bloomberg) Listen to this podcast on our site by clicking here or subscribe on iTunes here. While oil prices trade above $60 a barrel, up over 40% from their June 2017 lows, energy stocks have languished. Why the disconnect, and will this persist? This time on Financial Sense Newshour, we spoke with Dan Steffens from Energy Prospectus Group to get his outlook on the energy sector, US shale production, and concerns over peak oil demand. US Shale Production Fears Overhyped With both the EIA and IEA projecting for the US to produce more oil than Saudi Arabia next year, some are concerned that this will set a cap on oil prices and hamper gains for energy-producing companies as a whole. This isn't as big an issue as some fear, Steffens said, because demand for oil is going up by 1.5 million barrels a day


Projections For Peak Oil Demand Are Overblown
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Kennedy Jr. takes bullish stand on e-revolution fast overtak

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 17 Mar 2018, 23:06:50


Expect peak oil production to arrive in something more like five years than the 50 years forecast by much of the energy industry, environmentalist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said Thursday. It won’t be because the world is running out of oil, but because that’s how fast he’s betting innovations in cheap renewable power, batteries and electric vehicles will start to overtake traditional oil and internal combustion engines, Kennedy told the Globe 2018 conference on sustainable business in Vancouver. Kennedy recounted a retiring Shell executive a year ago who talked about oil demand peaking in 10 years, “not because it’s too dirty to burn, because they’re not going to be able to sell it.” Kennedy spoke as part of a Globe panel discussion with Vancity CEO Tamara Vrooman and Wal van Lierop, a leading clean-technology investor and founder of Chrysalix Venture Capital. And he made


Kennedy Jr. takes bullish stand on e-revolution fast overtaking oil
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 18 Mar 2018, 14:11:37

Peak demand may happen some day, but for now it appears fossil fuels are still going to dominate for another decade, possibly two if we can find enough. Substitution is all well and good, but every day fossil is cheaper than the substitute is another day the transition will be delayed.
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