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PeakOil is You

Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 13:12:11

vox is actually quite intelligent. Real nice guy/gal.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 15:52:06

Flyguy- "how on earth we can stop the growth in oil consumption". And that's the simple point I've been trying to beat into folks all hyped up over EV's. With respect to consumption alternative energy vehicles ARE NOT IMPROVING the situation. They are actually losing ground at a rate of about 50 to 1. As you point out as the population increases and/or becomes more affluent it demands more motorized transportation. And today about 98% of that group is opting for ICE's. Even when/if the day comes they go 50% EV we would still be adding around 40 million new ICE's every year.

And we're obviously a long way off going from <2% to 50%.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 15:58:58

AirlinePilot wrote:Most folks have a reading comprehension problem. Read the article...ACTUALLY read it....how many times do they use the word "could".


It is unfortunate that peak oilers didn't present all their claims of oil production as "could" every time they claimed the world was going to end. Sort of funny, these folks are putting the correct conditional in there, but others don't.

Predictions of the future should always include could. But can you see how fast you would have been banned for being a cornocopian if you dared do that here, a decade or so ago?

'Well, oil production COULD decrease, but what do violin players, beat cops and unemployed lawyers know about this anyway..." KA POW! how dare you question the authoritarian nature of violin players, beat cops and unemployed lawyers! Cornucopian!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 16:06:46

ROCKMAN wrote:Flyguy- "how on earth we can stop the growth in oil consumption". And that's the simple point I've been trying to beat into folks all hyped up over EV's. With respect to consumption alternative energy vehicles ARE NOT IMPROVING the situation. They are actually losing ground at a rate of about 50 to 1. As you point out as the population increases and/or becomes more affluent it demands more motorized transportation. And today about 98% of that group is opting for ICE's. Even when/if the day comes they go 50% EV we would still be adding around 40 million new ICE's every year.

And we're obviously a long way off going from <2% to 50%.


And why might the impact of EVs be blunted Rockman? The success of your industry of course. So thank you mucho for slowing down the transition to a better, more CO2 free world, but how much longer can your guys keep it up? Years? Decades?

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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 17:44:49

Adam - "So thank you mucho for slowing down the transition to a better, more CO2 free world". Buddfy, you still don't seem to be understanding the numbers. "We" ain't SLOWING DOWN the transition. "We" are significantly ACCELERATING away from a transition. Again a f*cking INCREASE of 82+ million ICE's last year compared to an increased of less the 2 million EV's. That means "we" are causing a very significant loss of ground at a significant rate.

And of course "we" ain't the oil patch. "We" are the consumers that are CHOOSING to buy motor vehicles that burn fossil fuels. The oil patch doesn't even sell the ICE's so we don't spend even a penny talking consumers into buying them.

Go talk to Mother Ford if you need to bitch at someone. LOL
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USA Peak Oil (Demand) was in 2007

Unread postby EdwinSm » Tue 25 Jul 2017, 01:42:41

In another thread a link was posted to a Wall Street Journal's article on "Why the World’s Appetite for Oil Will Peak Soon". In it there was this
The U.S. Energy Information Administration declared 2007 as the peak year for oil use in the U.S., with demand expected to fall by between 1.8 million and 2.7 million barrels a day by 2035 based on improvements in automotive efficiency and demographic trends.


There were a lot of posts around 2005 that talked of Peak Oil only been seen in the rear view mirror, so is 10 years a long enough time to say that the USA has experienced Peak Oil?

I note also from the graphs in the article that the Peak (in Demand) was not followed by a collapse in use and although demand is increasing after the 2008 crisis it is not back to where it was in 2007. This is a much longer 'plateau' than I expecting back then, with a projected gradual decline in oil demand rather than a steeper decline where the resulting social disruption feeds back into a faster decline.


Article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-worlds-appetite-for-oil-will-peak-soon-1430881507
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Re: USA Peak Oil (Demand) was in 2007

Unread postby marmico » Tue 25 Jul 2017, 04:00:11

Peak US petroleum consumption was in 2005 at 40.3 quadrillion Btu. It is a low probability event that the 2005 level will be exceeded.

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... sec1_7.pdf
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Re: USA Peak Oil (Demand) was in 2007

Unread postby tita » Tue 25 Jul 2017, 12:40:17

Officially, the International Energy Agency forecasts oil demand rising to 104 million barrels a day by 2040 from 90 million barrels a day in 2013, as surging demand in the developing world dwarfs the demand declines expected in the industrialized countries.

But I believe this forecast misses on both fronts—underestimating the extent of the decline in demand for oil in the developed world and overestimating the extent of the rise in the developing countries

This article date from may 2015... the author could at least take 2014 figures, which were at 92.5 MMbbls/d. And currently, in 2017, we are already over 97 MMbbls/d, and EIA projects 100MMbbls/d in 2018.

So, in regards of the evolution of the last two years, this article predicted quite a lot of bullshit. As of projections for 2040... Well, we could also tell that at the current BAU, demand will be 104 millions barrel per day before 2024.

And of course, US is not the world. The reasons behind the decline of the oil consumption in the US can be explained with a lot of things. Remember that fuel efficiency of US cars were behind most of the rest of the world, and US population is not growing at the rate of some other countries.
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Re: USA Peak Oil (Demand) was in 2007

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 25 Jul 2017, 13:34:48

EdwinSm wrote:In another thread a link was posted to a Wall Street Journal's article on "Why the World’s Appetite for Oil Will Peak Soon". In it there was this
The U.S. Energy Information Administration declared 2007 as the peak year for oil use in the U.S., with demand expected to fall by between 1.8 million and 2.7 million barrels a day by 2035 based on improvements in automotive efficiency and demographic trends.


There were a lot of posts around 2005 that talked of Peak Oil only been seen in the rear view mirror, so is 10 years a long enough time to say that the USA has experienced Peak Oil?


It was for Simmons. Ruppert. Deffeyes. The IEA. The Oil Drum. Heinberg. Duncan. Colin Campbell. LATOC. LATOC II. USA-ASPO. ASPO International. And I'm sure I could find more groupies and hangers on that vigorously nodded when this round of usual suspects were parroting the end times.

Of course....the number of these folks who have fled the scene (permanently in some cases) is a good sign as to how they might feel about it NOW.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: USA Peak Oil (Demand) was in 2007

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 25 Jul 2017, 15:36:45

According to stats from the EIA the US consumption of petroleum products peaked in 1979 ad then took about 20 years to recover to that level again. And it has peaked again around 2025. Now we just had to wait until 2025 to see if history repeats itself or if a different dynamic has come into play.

Or someone with a solid record of predicting future conditions of the US petroleum industry may want to declare 2005 as the ultimate peak.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 18 Aug 2017, 11:56:18

Another study for ROCK to get cranky about! :-D :-D

https://www.skepticalscience.com/Problems-For-Oil.html

Problems For Oil

I'll go right to the conclusions:

Conclusions

Production and use of oil poses risks to public health, is expensive and inefficient compared to electricity and contributors to global warming.

It is likely that battery technology will significantly increase charge density, recharge time and reduce costs to less than $100/kWh by 2020.

This will make EV’s cheaper than ICE vehicles resulting in rapid and sustained growth in EV uptake, reducing demand for oil-based fuels.

By 2023 it is possible that demand for oil-based fuels will have reduced by 2 million bbl/day, resulting in a continually growing global oil glut.

This is likely to cause oil producers/refineries to scale down their operations and, as the glut grows, to close-down.

The oil glut will initially cause fall in demand for heavier oils listed in Table 2 and, as EV uptake gains momentum, medium and lighter oils.

By 2025 it is likely that CO2 emissions from oil production, refining and use will be reduced by at least 470 million tonnes/annum.

By 2035 it is possible that global demand for oil could decrease, by up to 50% from predicted peak demand level expected in 2020.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 18 Aug 2017, 12:45:08

"Production and use of oil poses risks to public health, is expensive and inefficient compared to electricity and contributors to global warming." Unlike the 50,000 coal fired power plants planned or already under construction in India?

2020? Both global oil and coal demand have already peaked. Now whether new peaks will or won't be established in the future is pure speculation that can't be proved either way.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 18 Aug 2017, 15:10:34

Thanks, ROCK. We love your crankiness! :) :)

To be clear, though, this study pushes the likely/possible date to 2023 rather than 2020. Or at least that's when they claim "EV’s will reduce demand for oil by 2 million barrels/day" at the earliest, 2025 at the latest.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 18 Aug 2017, 22:43:12

The paper is overly optimistic, but the trend-lines are there. It's only a matter of time.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 18 Aug 2017, 22:59:07

dohboi - I'm OK with folks predicting any future they like. But that future will have to face the current trend lines. And right now with respect to motor fuel consumption India is on trend to consume MORE by 2025...not less. Any other prediction would be more credible if the were already a reversal of the trend. Which there has yet been one to develop.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 19 Aug 2017, 02:14:17

That's the thing, trends will alter quickly when electric cars with power from wind and solar become cheaper than the alternatives. At that point, economics will rapidly alter whatever 'trends' had been in place up till then.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 20 Aug 2017, 13:29:24

Yes, like this:

http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/03/technol ... index.html

There is a "latency effect" going on right now in the developing world. If EVs hit the sweet spot then carbuying could shift en masse over to EVs.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 20 Aug 2017, 16:05:36

dohboi - "That's the thing, trends will alter quickly when electric cars with power from wind and solar become cheaper than the alternatives". So true. And I'll post the data to support the first hint of such a change in the trend. But currently the trend is a huge increase in ICE's compared to EV's. IOW the current DOCUMENTED TREND is that the situation with motor vehicles is getting worse, much worse...not better. And 50,000 new coal fired power plants in India isn't much a reason to celebrate either.

Globally in 2016: 84 million ICE's purchased vs 1.5 million EV's. That's the current trend. And that's a very negative trend. So when would you guess we'll see the "quickly" changing trend to 50/50 EV vs ICE? We'll talk again then. LOL.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 20 Aug 2017, 16:13:39

"If EVs hit the sweet spot then carbuying could shift en masse over to EVs.". Not in countries with insufficient an electricity supply. But those 50,000 new coal fired power plants planned in India would help a lot. LOL.

Folks keep forgetting that electricity is not an energy source...just a transmission method.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 20 Aug 2017, 18:34:42

I had not forgotten. But you seem to have forgotten what a trend is.

"Globally in 2016: 84 million ICE's purchased vs 1.5 million EV's. That's the current trend"

That's a snapshot, not a trend. :)
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