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Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 18 Mar 2018, 15:23:59

Tanada wrote:Peak demand may happen some day, but for now it appears fossil fuels are still going to dominate for another decade, possibly two if we can find enough.
Tony Seba says 2020, Amy Jaffe supports the idea in general but hasn't predicted when, and I've seen other estimates running as late as the 2030's or so. The EIA doesn't support the idea within their most current IEO, and we all know how conservative they are, but also how smart in not falling for peak oil like the amatuers.

My personal thought is that the answer doesn't matter any more than peak oil did, because we are talking about a multi-variate system. Both can happen, they can happen at the same time, and they can both happen without anybody being bothered at all...all depending on the relationship between supply and demand.

Tanada wrote: Substitution is all well and good, but every day fossil is cheaper than the substitute is another day the transition will be delayed.


It will be delayed...until it arrives. For some of us, we are already past that point. Between solar panels and EVs, insulating our homes, consuming less, we're already on the way. Sure there will be laggards, there always are. My family won't be one of them.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 18 Mar 2018, 17:52:47

AdamB wrote:
Tanada wrote: Substitution is all well and good, but every day fossil is cheaper than the substitute is another day the transition will be delayed.


It will be delayed...until it arrives. For some of us, we are already past that point. Between solar panels and EVs, insulating our homes, consuming less, we're already on the way. Sure there will be laggards, there always are. My family won't be one of them.

But what percentage is prepared to carry on post fossil fuel? One in ten or only one in a thousand? Can you fit 999 bodies into your compost pile?
Last edited by Tanada on Mon 19 Mar 2018, 12:17:59, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed broken quote
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 18 Mar 2018, 21:56:11

vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Tanada wrote: Substitution is all well and good, but every day fossil is cheaper than the substitute is another day the transition will be delayed.


It will be delayed...until it arrives. For some of us, we are already past that point. Between solar panels and EVs, insulating our homes, consuming less, we're already on the way. Sure there will be laggards, there always are. My family won't be one of them.

But what percentage is prepared to carry on post fossil fuel?


Who cares? Needs must when the devil drives. Jump the price of gasoline in the US to nothing more than European levels, and watch what happens next. Americans will bitch and whine as loudly as peakers did when it became obvious they were just gullible fools, but they will react..and your guess is as good as mine HOW they will react....but they will. My wife hasn't put gasoline in her car since October I think. Two tanks a year at $10/gal means her commuting fuel costs for the year would be $200. At $10/gal. Let the SUV folks let their obsolete monsters rust in the driveway...bitching the entire time of course...but who cares? They'll change. Elon will make another mint, as will Ford and Chevy and VW and the folks charging into tomorrow exactly as Tony Seba laid out...so far.

vtsnowedin wrote: One in ten or only one in a thousand? Can you fit 999 bodies into your compost pile?


People aren't going to choose to DIE because fuel gets expensive VT. They'll bitch...same as they did during the real energy crisis of the 1970's, same as they did during the faux peak oil of a decade ago. Some will walk, some will blame big oil and sell their house to keep driving their Suburban, and so on and so forth.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 02:32:13

AdamB wrote:
People aren't going to choose to DIE because fuel gets expensive VT. They'll bitch...same as they did during the real energy crisis of the 1970's, same as they did during the faux peak oil of a decade ago. Some will walk, some will blame big oil and sell their house to keep driving their Suburban, and so on and so forth.

People won't choose to die, they will be killed by people and events they can't control.
The energy crisis of the 70's was a contrived very short term thing and does not compare to what is going to happen when the worlds oil production begins to decline.
It will go on year on year and bitching wont help put food on the table. Wars will be fought over the remaining supplies and genocides will happen with increased frequency.
The US being rich and having a good chunk of that remaining supply will be a target and we will have to defend ourselves. China is not building up it's military to pick on the Vietnamese or Taiwan. Each of us will do a lot more then park an SUV and convert it into a chicken coop.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 22:04:08

vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:
People aren't going to choose to DIE because fuel gets expensive VT. They'll bitch...same as they did during the real energy crisis of the 1970's, same as they did during the faux peak oil of a decade ago. Some will walk, some will blame big oil and sell their house to keep driving their Suburban, and so on and so forth.

People won't choose to die, they will be killed by people and events they can't control.


Sure...same as they have for the past millennium. Nothing new here VT.


vtsnowedin wrote: The energy crisis of the 70's was a contrived very short term thing and does not compare to what is going to happen when the worlds oil production begins to decline.


Baloney. Oil shortages were real enough by 1977 that Jimmy was proclaiming not "gee this is contrived shortage and we'll get over it soon"...but "oil is running out by the late 1980's!!!".

Sure, you and I know that he was as stupid as the modern peakers, but that is hindsight. At the time, it was just as REAL to him as it was to peak oilers a decade ago. And now we know what happened to both of those claims...and just as Tony Seba has no fear of peak oil...why should any of the rest of us? Peak demand creates peak oil the same as peak supply...so kick back and in a few decades we'll know which one happened, or if they happened simultaneously. In the meantime, feel free to keep using liquid fuels. After having watched the wife for a few years now, I'm thinking she is on to something.

vtsnowedin wrote:
It will go on year on year and bitching wont help put food on the table. Wars will be fought over the remaining supplies and genocides will happen with increased frequency.


Heard that one before VT. And then peak oil happened (lots of people said so!) and it didn't turn out to be as expected. Here is the standard of what was expected. Just like you are calling it now. Think it will happen next peak oil, really? Maybe the 2nd or 3rd one from now?

Image

vtsnowedin wrote: The US being rich and having a good chunk of that remaining supply will be a target and we will have to defend ourselves. China is not building up it's military to pick on the Vietnamese or Taiwan. Each of us will do a lot more then park an SUV and convert it into a chicken coop.


The good news being, that the last time it was claimed we were running out...we didn't have to defend ourselves then...so if you are playing the rinse and recycle game,it would make more sense to figure that maybe historical precedent is more important. Price goes up, things change, nobody fights for oil (can you believe we've invaded like HALF the middle east over past 25 years or so, and didn't even steal their oil? 8O ) and then the production response to price does its thing.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 06:04:12

There has been no previous "peak oil". Panics and speculation yes, but a real peak in world consumption or production? No!
I'm talking about what will happen ,and it eventually will,when world production goes down and does not increase after the price increases to force demand down to meet supply.
All that has gone before will not apply so your confidence in BAU is misplaced.
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Peak Oil Demand Is Approaching Thanks to EVs and Autonomous

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 02 Apr 2018, 15:30:41


Nearly a decade ago, I talked about the concept of “peak oil.” Simply put, this theory states that global oil production will hit a maximum level before declining. When oil prices hit a record high of $147 a barrel in July 2008, many analysts focused on the supply-demand equation and the topic of peak oil. Back then, peak oil pertained to supply. People saw out-of-control global demand as a sign that the supply would peak… before it would run completely dry. But then the introduction of hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling blew the peak oil argument right out of the picture. So much new supply has been developed over the last decade due to fracking, and the U.S. is now the world’s top crude producer. Fast-forward to 2018. The introduction of electric vehicles is close to its tipping point. When that happens, EVs will quickly


Peak Oil Demand Is Approaching Thanks to EVs and Autonomous Vehicles
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Oil Demand Is Approaching Thanks to EVs and Autonom

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 02 Apr 2018, 16:38:34

AdamB wrote:

Nearly a decade ago, I talked about the concept of “peak oil.” Simply put, this theory states that global oil production will hit a maximum level before declining. When oil prices hit a record high of $147 a barrel in July 2008, many analysts focused on the supply-demand equation and the topic of peak oil. Back then, peak oil pertained to supply. People saw out-of-control global demand as a sign that the supply would peak… before it would run completely dry. But then the introduction of hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling blew the peak oil argument right out of the picture. So much new supply has been developed over the last decade due to fracking, and the U.S. is now the world’s top crude producer. Fast-forward to 2018. The introduction of electric vehicles is close to its tipping point. When that happens, EVs will quickly


Peak Oil Demand Is Approaching Thanks to EVs and Autonomous Vehicles

And just what percentage of world oil consumption has been replaced by EVs or AVs?
Even if they have tremendous growth the alternatives will not replace the growing demand for oil much less reduce the demand already in place.
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Re: Peak Oil Demand Is Approaching Thanks to EVs and Autonom

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 02 Apr 2018, 23:52:05

vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:

Nearly a decade ago, I talked about the concept of “peak oil.” Simply put, this theory states that global oil production will hit a maximum level before declining. When oil prices hit a record high of $147 a barrel in July 2008, many analysts focused on the supply-demand equation and the topic of peak oil. Back then, peak oil pertained to supply. People saw out-of-control global demand as a sign that the supply would peak… before it would run completely dry. But then the introduction of hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling blew the peak oil argument right out of the picture. So much new supply has been developed over the last decade due to fracking, and the U.S. is now the world’s top crude producer. Fast-forward to 2018. The introduction of electric vehicles is close to its tipping point. When that happens, EVs will quickly


Peak Oil Demand Is Approaching Thanks to EVs and Autonomous Vehicles

And just what percentage of world oil consumption has been replaced by EVs or AVs?


Not near enough. Yet. Check out my sig line for an explanation of a market saturation curve works, with an outstanding presentation accompanying it no less!

vtsnowedin wrote: Even if they have tremendous growth the alternatives will not replace the growing demand for oil much less reduce the demand already in place.


Tremendous growth is all so...fuzzy. See Tony Seba for that explanation. He seems a bit aggressive, but Amy Jaffe was talking about the idea from an economics standpoint years ago, so no one can say this is a surprise when it arrives, right? And according to the folks in the know, demand growth is a non-OECD kind of thing, counterbalanced by more stable or maybe even decreasing demand elsewhere. In either case, now that I've got a Tesla owning next door neighbor, it looks to be time to think about upgrading the wife so she doesn't look so battery poor compared to the Jones' next door! EV envy from a V8 convertible kind of lady..never in a million years would I have suspected it. First her boss with the Model S, now the neighbor with a Model X?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 03 Apr 2018, 04:19:24

Look at the facts.
Last year world auto sales of light vehicles amounted to 93.5 million units and a growth of 1.5% over the previous year or 1.4 million units. BEV (battery only electric cars) are expected to top 400,000 units in 2018 but that counts on Tesla getting up to 150,000 units which today seems doubtful. If they achieve 400K then double that in 2019 to 800K then again to 1.6 million units in 2020 they will just then have matched the yearly growth in auto sales. Meanwhile ICE sales for the three years will be a cumulative 280 million units. This year there will be one million BEVs in service, ."If these rosy projections hold up by 2020 (assuming no losses) there will be 3.8 million just 0.4 percent of the 950 million passenger vehicles in use in the world.
http://news.ihsmarkit.com/press-release ... arkit-says
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 03 Apr 2018, 16:05:24

vtsnowedin wrote:Look at the facts.


I did. I'm not a fan of making things up, but I will reference experts who might draw conclusions different than expected.

vtsnowedin wrote: Last year world auto sales of light vehicles amounted to 93.5 million units and a growth of 1.5% over the previous year or 1.4 million units. BEV (battery only electric cars) are expected to top 400,000 units in 2018 but that counts on Tesla getting up to 150,000 units which today seems doubtful. If they achieve 400K then double that in 2019 to 800K then again to 1.6 million units in 2020 they will just then have matched the yearly growth in auto sales. Meanwhile ICE sales for the three years will be a cumulative 280 million units. This year there will be one million BEVs in service, ."If these rosy projections hold up by 2020 (assuming no losses) there will be 3.8 million just 0.4 percent of the 950 million passenger vehicles in use in the world.
http://news.ihsmarkit.com/press-release ... arkit-says


Fortunate then that the reference I aimed you at wasn't talking about the world until he reached his peak oil angle, he was primarily focused on how fast he expects a market saturation curve to work in the US. Sure the world might take longer, some countries might want nothing to do with EVs. But a Tesla Model X just showed up in a middle class neighborhood in America, and the Tesla truck was here this morning wiring up things on their roof and in their garage. When mom and pop types begin going full EV, things, they be a changin!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 03 Apr 2018, 16:21:56

AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Look at the facts.


I did. I'm not a fan of making things up, but I will reference experts who might draw conclusions different than expected.

vtsnowedin wrote: Last year world auto sales of light vehicles amounted to 93.5 million units and a growth of 1.5% over the previous year or 1.4 million units. BEV (battery only electric cars) are expected to top 400,000 units in 2018 but that counts on Tesla getting up to 150,000 units which today seems doubtful. If they achieve 400K then double that in 2019 to 800K then again to 1.6 million units in 2020 they will just then have matched the yearly growth in auto sales. Meanwhile ICE sales for the three years will be a cumulative 280 million units. This year there will be one million BEVs in service, ."If these rosy projections hold up by 2020 (assuming no losses) there will be 3.8 million just 0.4 percent of the 950 million passenger vehicles in use in the world.
http://news.ihsmarkit.com/press-release ... arkit-says


Fortunate then that the reference I aimed you at wasn't talking about the world until he reached his peak oil angle, he was primarily focused on how fast he expects a market saturation curve to work in the US. Sure the world might take longer, some countries might want nothing to do with EVs. But a Tesla Model X just showed up in a middle class neighborhood in America, and the Tesla truck was here this morning wiring up things on their roof and in their garage. When mom and pop types begin going full EV, things, they be a changin!

Tesla and all the other BEV manufacturers sell worldwide so considering only the USA market requires you to subtract the units sold in other countries. There are seventeen odd million new cars sold in the US each year second only to China. Even if you just consider the USA market and erroneously assume all new BEVs will be sold in the US it will take years for them to have even ten percent of the vehicles on the road. The fact you have a couple of early adopter neighbors along with your wife is skewing your perceptions far beyond the actuality of the auto market.
You have an opinion which is contrary to the facts.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 03 Apr 2018, 19:01:10

"...now that I've got a Tesla owning next door neighbor..." That's great. And in my lower middle class neighborhood during the last year or so I've seen no less then 5 new four-door pickups being pushed by V8's. But, then again, I live in a Texas refinery town. LOL.

BTW in 2017 Ford alone sold 900,000 full size pickups. And how many EV's were bought here last year?
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