Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 12:49:43

baha wrote:
There is another way to destroy demand. A truly transformative technology. Like whale oil to FFs.

Auto manufacturers have already concluded that the usual 1.5% future sales growth will about equal the growth of electric cars. The process has already begun. Think hard before you buy another new car...


You seem to be under the impression that EVs don't run on fossil fuels.

Where do you think the electricity comes from?

In the US most electricity comes from coal and NG. In India and China they are building mainly coal-fired power plants.

Cheers!

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
"Il bel far niente"
---traditional Italian saying
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 20514
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 14:06:55

Plantagenet wrote:
baha wrote:
There is another way to destroy demand. A truly transformative technology. Like whale oil to FFs.

Auto manufacturers have already concluded that the usual 1.5% future sales growth will about equal the growth of electric cars. The process has already begun. Think hard before you buy another new car...


You seem to be under the impression that EVs don't run on fossil fuels.

Where do you think the electricity comes from?

In the US most electricity comes from coal and NG. In India and China they are building mainly coal-fired power plants.

Cheers!


Worse than that, mqnufacturng an EV consumes many barrels of oil to locate and refine minerals, manufacture them into parts, assemble those parts, and deliver the final product to point of purchase.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
User avatar
Subjectivist
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4108
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 06:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby baha » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 18:41:04

The transformative technology is PV derived power plus inexpensive and long-lived batteries produced with PV power propelling a car down the road at 60% efficiency.

Your ICE powered car takes much more energy to produce and maintain. So if you're going to make more...make them electric so they last a million miles.

Remember? An electric motor has only one moving part. And the rest of that stuff above has none. Pretty transformative.
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
User avatar
baha
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 773
Joined: Thu 12 Jul 2007, 02:00:00
Location: North Carolina, USA

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby baha » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 19:10:27

I consider the 8-10 year lifespan of batteries a bonus. The next battery pack I buy will have twice the capacity. Which means my 10 year old car suddenly has new life and twice the old range. And If hydrogen works out you can install a fuel cell instead.

I will also someday soon convert my '71 VW Squareback to an electric drivetrain. Just because I can and it gives me full control. It will be cheaper than a new ICE powered vehicle. All the mining, refining, manufacturing, assembling, and delivering was done and paid for 46 years ago.

In fact, any existing ICE vehicle could be converted to electric much cheaper than building a new one.
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
User avatar
baha
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 773
Joined: Thu 12 Jul 2007, 02:00:00
Location: North Carolina, USA

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 19:26:33

baha wrote:I consider the 8-10 year lifespan of batteries a bonus. The next battery pack I buy will have twice the capacity. Which means my 10 year old car suddenly has new life and twice the old range. And If hydrogen works out you can install a fuel cell instead.

I will also someday soon convert my '71 VW Squareback to an electric drivetrain. Just because I can and it gives me full control. It will be cheaper than a new ICE powered vehicle. All the mining, refining, manufacturing, assembling, and delivering was done and paid for 46 years ago.

In fact, any existing ICE vehicle could be converted to electric much cheaper than building a new one.


Perhaps, you just need an electric drive motor designed to bolt up to the existing transmission and someplace low down to position all those batteries so you don't accidently raise the center of gravity and reduce your stability. Because the electric motor is likely more compact and lighter than the ICE you are switching out some of the new batteries can go in the engine compartment, the springs and shocks and frame around the engine are designed to handle that weight.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
User avatar
Subjectivist
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4108
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 06:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby baha » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 19:35:11

This is existing superior technology.

http://www.evwest.com/catalog/product_i ... 145b9s03c6

This kit only offers 100 mile range which is why I said soon. It's only going to get better.
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
User avatar
baha
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 773
Joined: Thu 12 Jul 2007, 02:00:00
Location: North Carolina, USA

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 20:13:01

baha wrote:This is existing superior technology.

http://www.evwest.com/catalog/product_i ... 145b9s03c6

This kit only offers 100 mile range which is why I said soon. It's only going to get better.


Well, if you don't want to build your own, it already is. And cheaper to boot.

https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/deta ... /overview/
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 3156
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby baha » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 20:58:51

Don't be talking smack about my VW. I have this feeling there is nothing better on earth than a PV powered electric VW:) Can you say flower power?
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
User avatar
baha
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 773
Joined: Thu 12 Jul 2007, 02:00:00
Location: North Carolina, USA

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 02:46:44

As explained in another thread, this EV-solar power magic is part of a global capitalist system that involves increasing credit with resource and energy use needed to support not just a growing population but a growing middle class. Those investing in this hopium are very much counting on incredible increases in production and sales of all sorts of goods and services because that's where they expect to get their returns on investment (which they also expect to rise).

This essentially means industrializing most of the world, and that will mean at least one additional earth, which is not likely given limits to growth.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
User avatar
ralfy
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4654
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 10:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 06:49:41

baha wrote:The transformative technology is PV derived power plus inexpensive and long-lived batteries produced with PV power propelling a car down the road at 60% efficiency.
Have you run the numbers on that? Batteries are a very expensive(monetarily and energentically) way to store energy.

Batteries Need to Get Big—Like, Enormous—for Solar Power to Shine. They need to store an order of magnitude more than anything yet seen.

The largest announced storage system, comprising more than 18,000 Li-ion batteries, is being built in Long Beach for Southern California Edison by AES Corp. When it’s completed, in 2021, it will be capable of running at 100 megawatts for 4 hours. But that energy total of 400 megawatt-hours is still two orders of magnitude lower than what a large Asian city would need if deprived of its intermittent supply. For example, just 2 GW for two days comes to 96 gigawatt-hours.

The need for more compact, more flexible, larger-scale, less costly electricity storage is self-evident. But the miracle has been slow in coming.
Batteries Need to Get Big—Like, Enormous—for Solar Power to Shine

The fossil fuel required to build these technologies could negate some of the environmental benefits of installing new solar and wind farms. "We calculated how much energy it will cost society to build storage on future power grids that are heavily supplied by renewable resources. It turns out that that grid storage is energetically expensive."

The data revealed that all five batteries have high embodied-energy costs. "This is somewhat intuitive, because battery technologies are made out of metals, sometimes rare metals, which take a lot of energy to acquire and purify."
Stanford scientists calculate the carbon footprint of grid-scale battery technologies

baha wrote:Your ICE powered car takes much more energy to produce and maintain.
Incorrect. Because of the energy needed to build the batteries for the EV, the EV takes 50% more energy to produce than an ICE.

ELECTRIC cars could produce higher emissions over their lifetimes than petrol equivalents because of the energy consumed in making their batteries. Emissions from manufacturing electric cars are at least 50 per cent higher because batteries are made from materials such as lithium, copper and refined silicon, which require much energy to be processed.

Greg Archer, director of Low CVP, said the industry should state the full lifecycle emissions of cars rather than just tailpipe emissions, to avoid misleading consumers. He said that drivers wanting to minimise emissions could be better off buying a small, efficient petrol or diesel car. “People have to match the technology to their particular needs.”
Electric cars may not be so green after all, says British study

baha wrote:Remember? An electric motor has only one moving part. And the rest of that stuff above has none. Pretty transformative.
The batteries are the big cost for EVs, not the motor. Both monetarily and energetically. Don't forget the capital and energy needed to build all of the above. Just to give you some perspective here on what I am talking about. Buying gas for your ICE car is only about 10% of your carbon footprint. It's everything else that is the other 90%:

Image
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4013
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 07:04:31

I have to doubt that chart at least for anyone that is a suburban commuter. Looking at what they allow for household electricity and then the amount they allow for
private transport ie. gasoline oil. and tires etc. they are saying that the average car owner drives less then eight thousand miles a year when the real number is more then twice that.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 8028
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 07:25:03

It's an average for developed nations, not US specific. The rest of the developed nations drive less than the US.

Pie chart showing a break down of a typical persons footprint in a MEDC[more economically developed country. AKA, Japan, UK, United States, etc]
Global waste production
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4013
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 07:54:15

kublikhan wrote:It's an average for developed nations, not US specific. The rest of the developed nations drive less than the US.

Pie chart showing a break down of a typical persons footprint in a MEDC[more economically developed country. AKA, Japan, UK, United States, etc]
Global waste production

OK I can believe that. Ummmm! I've got to move to one of those countries where you get to spend fourteen percent of your carbon budget on recreation and leisure.
:roll:
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 8028
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 07:58:32

OK I can believe that. Ummmm! I've got to move to one of those countries where you get to spend fourteen percent of your carbon budget on recreation and leisure.

I think Scandinavian countries already fit that criteria. :-D
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
User avatar
onlooker
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7964
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 14 Feb 2017, 10:19:42

Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020, according to new report

A boom in the popularity of solar panels and electric cars could spark irreversible changes in the energy sector within three years.

By 2020, the global demand for coal and oil could peak and start to decline, according to a new report published this week by researchers at the Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London, and independent think-tank the Carbon Tracker Initiative.

The power and road transport sectors account for approximately half of fossil fuel consumption, so growth in the solar panel and electric vehicle markets can have a major impact on demand. The findings of this report could have serious implications for businesses and governments that supply these fossil fuels, say its authors.
“Electric vehicles and solar power are game-changers that the fossil fuel industry consistently underestimates."

Expect the Unexpected: The Disruptive Power of Low-Carbon Technology, warns that fossil fuels may lose 10 per cent of market share to solar panels and electric vehicles within a single decade. In the past, a similar 10 per cent loss of power market share caused the collapse of the US coal mining industry.

Similarly, Europe's five major utilities lost more than €100 billion in value from 2008 to 2013 because they were unprepared for an 8 per cent growth in renewable power, of which solar panels played a big part.

According to the report, growth in electric vehicles alone could lead to two million barrels of oil per day (mbd) being displaced by 2025 - the same volume that caused a major oil price collapse in 2014-15. The report finds 16mbd of oil demand displaced by 2040 and 25mbd by 2050.

Emerging technology, such as printable solar panels, could mean the scenarios used in the study in fact still underestimate growth in the renewables sector.

... The report assumes that electric vehicles will be cheaper than conventional internal combustion engines by 2020.

The report finds that electric vehicles could have a fifth of the road transport market by 2030 and, with additional growth in hydrogen cars and oil/electric hybrids, conventional vehicles could account for less than half the market. By 2050 electric vehicles could grow to 1.7 billion (69 per cent of the market) while conventional vehicles would make up just 12 per cent.

The report is accompanied by an interactive dashboard so readers can delve into the results.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
User avatar
vox_mundi
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3663
Joined: Wed 27 Sep 2006, 02:00:00

Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 14 Feb 2017, 10:24:06

Peak demand is going to be fantastic for peak oil, because it will cause it. Finally. And with luck, it will be the LAST one, and we can all stop worrying about, focusing on each of our personal transitions into our electrically powered future. Already here for some of us, but coming soon to everyone else!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 3156
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 00:20:56

"A boom in the popularity of solar panels and electric cars could spark irreversible changes in the energy sector within three years." Just so f*cking bizarre: it's as if such folks can't grasp 3rd grade arithmetic: in 2016 more the 82 million new ICE vehicles were added to the existing fleet of 1.2 BILLION fossil fuel powered vehicles. That compares to less then 2 million EV's purchased purchased in 2016.

So last year 84+ billion new ICE's vs <2 million EV's were purchased. And that hints of a reversal of the energy sector in just 3 years? And according to the IEA 82%+ of global energy is derived from fossil fuels and 3.6% from renewables with hydro accounting for the majority. And in 3 years we will at least see solid evidence of that split start to reverse?

I truly can't imagine the level of naïveté/stupidity that allows any mentally sound adult to accept such a prediction.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10626
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 12:40:39

ROCKMAN wrote:I truly can't imagine the level of naïveté/stupidity that allows any mentally sound adult to accept such a prediction.


You don't get to work much with economists then I take it? Hey, lets give them some credit, only a few fell for peak oil and ended up with egg on their face, but there were plenty more around who didn't fall for it, and at least deserve a look see into their work to see what other things they can prognosticate better than astrologists, accountants, bloggers, beat cops and violin players.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 3156
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 12:50:14

ROCKMAN wrote:"A boom in the popularity of solar panels and electric cars could spark irreversible changes in the energy sector within three years." Just so f*cking bizarre: it's as if such folks can't grasp 3rd grade arithmetic: in 2016 more the 82 million new ICE vehicles were added to the existing fleet of 1.2 BILLION fossil fuel powered vehicles. That compares to less then 2 million EV's purchased purchased in 2016.

So last year 84+ billion new ICE's vs <2 million EV's were purchased. And that hints of a reversal of the energy sector in just 3 years? And according to the IEA 82%+ of global energy is derived from fossil fuels and 3.6% from renewables with hydro accounting for the majority. And in 3 years we will at least see solid evidence of that split start to reverse?

I truly can't imagine the level of naïveté/stupidity that allows any mentally sound adult to accept such a prediction.


I would agree almost completely with this assessment! 2020 is less than 3 years away.....how on earth we can stop the growth in oil consumption considering population growth and the undeveloped worlds oil requirements is beyond me.
User avatar
AirlinePilot
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 4358
Joined: Tue 05 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South of Atlanta

Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 12:52:35

Most folks have a reading comprehension problem. Read the article...ACTUALLY read it....how many times do they use the word "could".
User avatar
AirlinePilot
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 4358
Joined: Tue 05 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South of Atlanta

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: EdwinSm and 17 guests