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Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Demand: could oil fall to $25 a barrel?

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 17 Nov 2015, 22:36:00

As long as we have assurance that this is not taking place:

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-22956470

then we should see a peak in demand.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Peak Demand: could oil fall to $25 a barrel?

Unread postby ennui2 » Wed 18 Nov 2015, 09:51:24

But...isn't everyone (except the evil white 1%ers) supposed to be poor, according to Pstarr? Rising middle-class is not part of the it's-all-downhill-from-here-peak-oil-doom-from-2008-onward narrative.
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Re: Peak Demand? LOL

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 11 Jan 2016, 17:30:36

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-1 ... dds-tumble
Thought I would post this here because the price of Oil just continues to go down and it does not so far appear to be stimulating demand. Of course it might be because their is a lag between Oil price and an upsurge in demand. We shall see.
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Re: Peak Demand? LOL

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 11 Jan 2016, 18:25:28

There are also issues with other commodities. From some months back:

"Commodities Slump to 16-Year Low on Mining, Oil Stocks"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... n-16-years
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Peak Demand? LOL

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 11 Jan 2016, 18:52:42

Yes as Oil companies are either directly involved in mining or mining companies depend on a strong performing Oil portfolios to get contracts to mine.
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Re: Peak Demand? LOL

Unread postby Pops » Wed 13 Jan 2016, 09:28:05

onlooker wrote:Thought I would post this here because the price of Oil just continues to go down and it does not so far appear to be stimulating demand.

So, the price of unleaded fell.
Did you go out and buy some extra to drive around a little?
Splurge and make your work commute last Sunday just for fun?
Go out and start up the old SUV and just let 'er idle in the driveway?
Come on, it's cheap!

LOL
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Re: Peak Demand? LOL

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 13 Jan 2016, 19:00:55

Pops wrote:
onlooker wrote:Thought I would post this here because the price of Oil just continues to go down and it does not so far appear to be stimulating demand.

So, the price of unleaded fell.
Did you go out and buy some extra to drive around a little?
Splurge and make your work commute last Sunday just for fun?
Go out and start up the old SUV and just let 'er idle in the driveway?
Come on, it's cheap!

LOL


Oh, it certainly isn't a game changer in terms of stocking up on it. More like using it in huge amounts to do that quintessential American pasttime that was once really expensive, but has gotta bunches cheaper! Working on my second road trip in a month. And looks like we've got through next year to enjoy it as well. Upper right hand corner, price of oil through 2017, hot dog!

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/

ROADTRIP!!!

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Re: Peak Demand? LOL

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 13 Jan 2016, 19:50:37

Pops wrote:
onlooker wrote:Thought I would post this here because the price of Oil just continues to go down and it does not so far appear to be stimulating demand.

So, the price of unleaded fell.
Did you go out and buy some extra to drive around a little?
Splurge and make your work commute last Sunday just for fun?
Go out and start up the old SUV and just let 'er idle in the driveway?
Come on, it's cheap!
LOL

I guess I need to have this sense of humor when I see the 400 pound woman sitting in her giant SUV with the engine running and the A/C on chowing down the McDonalds McHugePiggy meal -- because, you know, conservation is so SEVENTIES, walking into the nearby A/C'ed building is so HARD, etc. :roll:

Because to be honest, when I see stuff like that (especially if gas is near $4 a gallon), it makes me want to help Darwinism along a little (not that I'd ever actually do squat aside from pout).
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Re: Peak Demand? LOL

Unread postby Pops » Thu 14 Jan 2016, 10:00:32

U.S. Car Sales Set Record in 2015
Auto makers top 15-year-old peak as cheap gas, stronger economy lift demand

U.S. car sales in 2015 jumped to a record, clearing a peak last reached 15 years ago as cheap gasoline, employment gains and low interest rates spurred Americans to snap up new vehicles.

In all, auto makers sold 17.5 million cars and light trucks in the U.S. last year, a 5.7% increase, and on average paid more for each one. Americans overall spent about $570 billion on new rides—fueling an industry revival that is putting more money in the pockets of auto workers, dealers and executives.

With gas hovering around $2 a gallon nationwide and credit plentiful, auto makers are projecting a continuation of the robust demand for higher-margin pickup trucks and sport-utility vehicles now fattening their bottom lines. Those larger vehicles account for more than half of U.S. sales, pushing the average transaction price to $34,428, according to automotive data provider Kelley Blue Book.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-car-sal ... 1451999939


Sales weighted MPG falls

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Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 13:39:21

From the day that costs started lowering demand for oil in the USA there have been people telling us from time to time that we have hit Peak Demand and we will never see geological Peak Oil because nobody will be willing to pay for oil long enough to get there.

Here is the problem, with the exception of 2008-09 when the world financial/housing/derivative bubble burst and oil hit $147/bbl the consumption of oil has increased every year. In point of fact world oil consumption in 2016 is substantially higher than it was in 2006. These facts are undeniable and well established, and yet the 'peak demand' ,meme just got brought up again.

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Transportation sector changes: peak oil demand, or just a beginning?

The report says that the potential proliferation of increasingly stringent vehicle ownership and use policies, changes in consumer behavior, new technologies and the pace of economic growth, as well as the impacts of new mobility models such as ride hailing services and autonomous vehicles are key sources of uncertainties facing global oil demand. The combination of these factors could foreseeably lead to a peak in oil demand or, alternatively, lead to it reaching new heights.

Regardless of how these factors play out, the gradual nature of transitions and the long life of the existing on-road fleet means that the impact on oil demand will likely be at a measured pace, the report says. Even in 2016, 96% of all new vehicle sales featured a combustion engine. IHS Markit estimates the average vehicle life globally to be about 15 years, which means that the impact of new vehicle technologies is expected to take time to materially affect the vehicle fleet and overall fuel demand.

“When we look at the future of the car and the impact of key factors such as electric vehicles sales, we see the slow turnover rate of the global vehicle fleet muting the effect of new technologies on global oil demand,” said Kevin Birn, director for IHS Energy who leads the Oil Sands Dialogue. “However, the future of the car—and the sources of energy that propel them—is certainly not predetermined and the potential exists for the future to surprise—up or down.”

IHS believes that oil sands will continue to play a key role in meeting future oil supply. Since production from oil sands facilities does not decline, future investment into projects results in growth, the report says.

“Looking ahead to future automotive demand for refined products and, in turn demand for crude oil, it is easy to fixate on one or two factors. But this misses the larger picture,” said Tiffany Groode, IHS Energy senior director.

“More likely, the future for transportation will come from a variety of variables, from economic activity and government policy, to shifting consumer preferences. Navigating this uncertainty and understanding how numerous variables will interact and influence one another will be pivotal.”


http://www.oilandgas360.com/long-vehicl ... -suddenly/
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 15:29:59

The only way the theory of Peak Demand makes even a little sense is in the price rationing sense. IOW how much oil I want to buy as gasoline at least, is dependent on the price. At acheap price per gallon I buy as much as I feel like using and maybe take the scenic rout coming home from the pharmacy. At a high price for gasoline I demand less because I minimize my driving, try taking the most efficient rout, combine tasks near the same destination or on rout from one location to or from another destination.

Prices are going up now, but they are nowhere near where they topped in 2008, they are just over half where they sat for 2010-2014.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby rdberg1957 » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 19:00:22

In my mind, it has been the intersection of climate change and peak oil which will squeeze civilizations. The news is silent on the peak oil front, but that will change at some point, likely in the near future. Eventually, as oil becomes more difficult to extract and production declines, we will use the coal we have. It isn't economical compared to natural gas now, but that will change. I don't have a crystal ball to know how it will change when, but I know it will change. Peak oil is likely to result in more coal usage and deforestation which will increase greenhouse gas emissions.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 19:13:20

rdberg1957 wrote:In my mind, it has been the intersection of climate change and peak oil which will squeeze civilizations. The news is silent on the peak oil front, but that will change at some point, likely in the near future. Eventually, as oil becomes more difficult to extract and production declines, we will use the coal we have. It isn't economical compared to natural gas now, but that will change. I don't have a crystal ball to know how it will change when, but I know it will change. Peak oil is likely to result in more coal usage and deforestation which will increase greenhouse gas emissions.

The news will be silent on peak oil until the day that the total of petroleum products supplied to the worlds markets is significantly less then the year before in spite of higher prices. Then the possibilities of five percent declines per year will cause panic to set in.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 19:56:03

Sorry, but that won't work anymore vt.

If you expect peak oil to be announced by higher prices, you don't yet understand "demand destruction" Folks around the world have already been priced out of the oil markets. So it only appears there is a glut of oil. But it's not it's not the case. Rather we are seeing a dearth of demand.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 20:36:31

Between 1960 and 2005 demand grew by 5.49% annually, between 2005 and 2014 it grew by 0.43%. High demand growth died a decade ago. The world produces 5mb/d more of C&C than it did over a decade ago. To complicate things 60% of the world's oil comes from less than 1% of its fields, and they are on average more than 60 years old. One would have to seriously ask where would the oil come from if there was a real increase in demand.

Of course, some people have trouble with data sets of more than one point; so this may not help!
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 21:11:48

Pstar,
Keep it to the facts.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 21:15:10

pstarr wrote:Sorry, but that won't work anymore vt.

If you expect peak oil to be announced by higher prices, you don't yet understand "demand destruction" Folks around the world have already been priced out of the oil markets. So it only appears there is a glut of oil. But it's not it's not the case. Rather we are seeing a dearth of demand.

Complete BS on that pstarr.
The only people that have been priced out of the market were never in it.
The only thing that can produce demand destruction is sustained high prices which we will have in due course but have not as of yet.
Look at auto sales in China and India before you tell me about any demand destruction.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 22:11:15

vtsnowedin wrote:
pstarr wrote:Sorry, but that won't work anymore vt.

If you expect peak oil to be announced by higher prices, you don't yet understand "demand destruction" Folks around the world have already been priced out of the oil markets. So it only appears there is a glut of oil. But it's not it's not the case. Rather we are seeing a dearth of demand.

Complete BS on that pstarr.
The only people that have been priced out of the market were never in it.
The only thing that can produce demand destruction is sustained high prices which we will have in due course but have not as of yet.
A decade of $100 oil may not have cut into your life vt, but it's already destroyed a half a dozen economies, and wounded much of Europe. And that ain't no malarkey. :-D
vtsnowedin wrote: Look at auto sales in China and India before you tell me about any demand destruction.

Those two countries were the last of world-oil demand, gave some slave-labor pleasure. It worked, folks are still in a mental bubble. But that is over. China is about in free-fall and India remains mostly a 3rd world country.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 10:38:44

pstarr wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: Look at auto sales in China and India before you tell me about any demand destruction.

Those two countries were the last of world-oil demand, gave some slave-labor pleasure. It worked, folks are still in a mental bubble. But that is over. China is about in free-fall and India remains mostly a 3rd world country.

Perhaps somebody should tell them.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/wire-n ... 60741.html
http://www.autocarpro.in/analysis-sales ... 2016-16904
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby baha » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 10:53:22

vtsnowedin wrote:
pstarr wrote: The only thing that can produce demand destruction is sustained high prices which we will have in due course but have not as of yet.
Look at auto sales in China and India before you tell me about any demand destruction.


There is another way to destroy demand. A truly transformative technology. Like whale oil to FFs.

Auto manufacturers have already concluded that the usual 1.5% future sales growth will about equal the growth of electric cars. The process has already begun. Think hard before you buy another new car...
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