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Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby Pops » Mon 30 Dec 2013, 16:30:19

So come on, read the leaves and tell us what you think the color of this year's black swan will be!

The floor is open for any kind of pre-visioning, of course mega-trends in depletion are favorites but whatever . . .
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
-- Abraham Lincoln
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby Pops » Mon 30 Dec 2013, 16:58:13

I'm thinking real estate will take off with interest rates rising and a smaller foreclosure overhang...

but the bond markets will take a beating as long term rates rise

I think the stock market is overbought and over leveraged . . again . . already . . . but bonds hurting will put even more money into the markets looking for a return so it won't crash - yet

I think the US economy wants to go but as soon as it does the price of oil will rise and repeat the previous howervermany springtime slumps

I think the rate of increase in LTO will continue to fall and more companies will sell out

In fact I'll say oil merger mania as the cost of producing new oil continues to erode profits and the only out is to sell out or merge


No really colorful swans there tho ....

What do you think?
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby Timo » Mon 30 Dec 2013, 17:53:03

I'll have a go.

Congress will finally break. Plain and simple. It will cease to function as a branch of government. There will be lots of repurcussions of this cessation in government function, but i can't predict where all the pieces will fall.

The ACA will survive and become more real than ever, if only for the reason that Congress will become too dysfunctional to defund or repeal it. I know that's saying a lot, but Congress can, and will, get even worse than 2013.

Given the 2014 elections in India, their relations with Pakistan will approach the point or war. Nothing will happen, officially, though, because India is too diversified an dysfunctional as a central government to collectively do anything, especially in an election year.

Israel and KSA will bomb Iran. Russia will be too preoccupied with internal terrorism to come to their rescue. The US will plead ignorance of the whole event.

Colorado and Washington will BOOM with tourism. Border states will BOOM with highway patrols making tons of arrests of motorists coming from Colorado and Washington.

2014 will be noticeably warmer than any year previously on record. The doubters will become fewer. LOTS of people will die from the heat.

LENR will be exposed as a fraud.

Algae will replace coal. :mrgreen:
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby careinke » Mon 30 Dec 2013, 18:06:21

My vision is for some serious disruptions. There are just too many swans out there for some of them not to hit. Here are some of the most likely sources:

1. The bee population falls lower than required for pollination of our crops.
2. Weather related crop failures drain grain reserves.
4. Final collapse of fish industry.
5. Civil unrest when the Supreme Court nullifies the fourth amendment.
6. A major natural disaster finally convinces governments to take serious action.
7. Food shortages will lead to another "Arab Spring" but it will ignite unrest worldwide.
8. A serious attack on the Winter Olympics will provide even more justification for taking away what liberties we have left.
9. The general public figures out we are doomed.
10. The Stock Market Crashes.
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby Paulo1 » Mon 30 Dec 2013, 18:23:43

Okay dokay,

Stocks drop by 1/3 before the end of March.

Israel will bomb Iran as well as take on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Again.

Obamacare will continue to undermine health care system in US as folks will find it cheaper to take the penalty and go for emergency treatments at hospital. Doctors will increasingly opt out.

University admissions will decline and students will begin to default on student loans.

We'll see?

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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby Pops » Mon 30 Dec 2013, 18:41:52

Now we're seein swans!

Image
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 30 Dec 2013, 19:02:24

The most outrageous forecast for 2014 is obviously to go 100% renewable but, in the following article, which I agree with wholeheartedly, there are smaller achievable resolutions.

The 2014 Clean Energy Resolution

Deep down inside, do people want what's best for themselves, or what's best for everyone?

This question lies at the heart of my current escapist-reading-before-bed novel Next History: the Girl Who Hacked Tomorrow.

The novel's 20-year-old heroine stakes her salvation (and that of humanity as a whole) on the answer to this question in a bet made with the devil.

Strangely enough, this got me to thinking about New Year's resolutions. There's something about the turning point between old and new that leads people to think about making transformational changes in their lives.

The most commonly made resolutions focus on health and well-being -- to stop smoking, eat better, get more exercise, spend more time with family and friends, and so forth.

Sometimes they focus on more outward ambitions: to change jobs, get out of debt, or pick up a new hobby.

But how many people make resolutions aimed at the kind of changes that are not just best for themselves, but best for everyone? Is there a way to do both?
The most transformative change of all -- go 100 percent renewable!

Perhaps the most beneficial, transformative change of all would be one which leads us to a future powered by 100 percent renewable energy.

To some this may sounds about as plausible as a couch surfing, overweight, beer chugger resolving to run the New York marathon. But in fact we're already taking the first steps in that direction.

According to WWF, based on existing trends renewable energy is on track to deliver half of our electricity needs globally in around 17 years (PDF).

And a recent technical study commissioned by my organization, the Global Call for Climate Action (GCCA), shows that we can phase-out net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. And there are scenarios which show how this could be done by going for 100 percent renewables.

Creating political will

In fact, The only thing slowing us down is the lack of political will. The countries winning the clean energy race all have one thing in common: effective national laws and policies which create the incentives to adopt smart energy solutions.

So how can we build political will? By demonstrating that we do not accept the prevailing energy paradigm based on fossil fuels. By demonstrating that we oppose getting embroiled in more energy wars.

By demonstrating we will no longer accept offshore oil spills which destroy our oceans and coastlines. By demonstrating that we reject any form of energy production that contaminates our drinking water.

By demonstrating that we will not tolerate our mountaintops being blown off for the coal that lies underneath. By demonstrating that we will not abide any more nuclear accidents.

And by demonstrating that we find it unacceptable for millions of people to die each year as a consequence of producing and using nuclear and fossil fuels.

Admittedly, that's a lot to ask from a New Year's resolution. But we can start with some tangible commitments and encourage others to do the same.

This New Year's, why not resolve to take steps in our own lives to reduce our energy consumption, to use energy more efficiently, and to get our energy from renewable sources wherever possible?

Five simple steps...

Here are five simple ideas which anyone can do, even if you don't own your own home, have the money to trade in your gas powered car for an electric one, or have the roof space on which to mount solar panels:

Replace your light bulbs with LEDs or CFLs, saving both energy and money.

Go one day without meat each week, which would not only reduce your carbon footprint, but would also save you 84,000 gallons of water. For that matter, why not do it two or three days a week, or more?

Unplug your lights and electronics when you're not using them. It's incredible how much energy we waste that way.

Consider replacing your dryer with a clothesline. This is do-able even in a wet climate like Amsterdam's where I live, as long as you have a bit of warm space inside to hang some lines.

If you live in a place where this is possible, how about resolving to commute exclusively by bike or public transportation? And if you're a frequent flyer, you could resolve to fly less. Consider the advantages of "slow travel" as climate scientist Kevin Anderson has described. (He actually took the train to Shanghai from the UK in order to attend a conference.)

Apart from reducing your own fossil fuel consumption, you could support projects featured on Solar Mosaic. Turn your 2014 New Year's resolution into a pledge to "Put Solar on It" -- if you make the pledge, Mosaic will give you the tools to make it happen.

And fulfilling your pledge will be easier and more fun if you're not alone, so join a campaign, and find loads of new and different ways to make your voice heard. Check out the GCCA's Action Center for ideas.

Going out upfront and public

Whatever you decide to do, do it publicly! Psychology studies show that that making a public commitment -- for example sharing your New Year's resolution with friends and family -- significantly increases the chance that you'll follow-through on it.

If you do it on Twitter or Facebook, consider using #Resolution100 to demonstrate your commitment to a 100 percent energy future.

This is our chance to show that we care about what's good for the world. While we may not be bargaining with the devil, we are most certainly bargaining with our children's future.


huffingtonpost

Happy New Year!
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 30 Dec 2013, 19:17:13

Maybe 2014 will be the year bound to come soon, when a so called 'far right'- really anti Islam- party will gain government somewhere significant in Europe. Oil will be the biggest practical concern for the foreseeable future, Islam vs everyone else is being pushed into becoming the core 'philosophical/ religious' conflict globally.

Outrageous?- Already we see western governments backing jihadists in some locations whilst still fighting them in others. The Geneva Convention on POW's is already consigned to the history books. The MSM continues to ignore atrocities going on almost daily, tries to avoid the hideous agenda being worked on by global Salafists.

An enemy who prays to die fighting is f'ing dangerous- not one to be ignored in the hope he will just fade away. So far the jihadis have succeeded in eroding many of our civil rights, the Geneva Convention, the US Constitution, our freedom to safely travel to large chunks of the world, the honesty and integrity of reportage in the MSM. At this stage- they are winning. The fact they are both funded by remittances from western resident Muslims and by our inevitable financial pouring into their key National support- bodes unwell for the relationships involved at all levels.

Ok- I will cross the line- 'outrageous prediction for 2014'- Deals will be made to allow Israel and the rest of the civilized world to sit back and let the Sunni- Shia conflict spiral out of control regionally across the MENA. There being no solution to the jihadi problem, no intervention possible with any probability of success- better to let these crazies have at each other in the hope both will exhaust themselves and eventually be forced to the negotiating table with their infidel enemies. I doubt this strategy will work- but it looks more likely than any strategy of trying to single out and pin down specific hot spots- the 'thing' is already spiraling out of control and spreading. ELM will continue to increase pressure. Jihadis will keep getting hungrier and more desperate and dangerous.

Oh what a mess!- (How is Kim's bod since the baby? Seen those pics? Think they are photoshopped? :P )
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby dissident » Mon 30 Dec 2013, 19:40:18

Instead of economic growth created by MSM BS and Pancho Villa style printing of money by western governments we will see at least the first signs of breakdown in the global economy. You can only fly on illusions for so long before reality brings you back down to earth.
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 30 Dec 2013, 22:46:17

Outrageous? No sweat, the Arctic Ocean will be effectively ice free on August 22, 2014, as a result the Northern Hemisphere will flip into the Hothouse climate mode and the tropics will expand from 23 degrees north to 67 degrees north. Tropical diseases will spread and run rampant in the European and European American populations who are just plain not adapted for it. China will keep importing more oil every month until world prices climb into the $120.00/bbl range and price rationing starts cutting the legs out from under the American economy again. Peak Oil will be recognized by many organizations both Government and non, but almost all of them will deny it to keep consumerism running just one more day, and then the next day, until it can't be sustained any longer.
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby Loki » Mon 30 Dec 2013, 23:56:58

My outrageous prediction for 2014 is that I will make little progress in my guitar skills despite my best intentions. And that I probably won't quit smoking. But I will advance my farming skills, expand and learn to better manage my off-grid electric system, grow and put away a bunch of food, and brew most of my own beer.

As for the big world out there, who the hell knows? Unpredictability is one of the defining features of our time.

I'd venture to guess gasoline won't get any cheaper, and may very well get more expensive. Another oil shock due to x event in y country, resulting in rationing and rioting? Maybe. By 2020? Yeah, probably.

I'd venture to guess the US economy will still be in recovery mode, modest increases in some metrics (GDP, U-3, market, etc.), stagnation in those that count for most folks. Financial panics will always be waiting in the wings, at shorter and shorter return intervals as the Long Descent progresses. But it's a roll of the dice as to whether we'll see one in 2014. By 2020? Yeah, probably. And then it'll be another step down the staircase.

I'd venture to guess climate change will worsen, but this is operating at a decadal scale (i.e., slowly). Maybe we'll see another big drought in corn country, or maybe we won't. Some island nation is likely to get the shit kicked out of it, though.
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 31 Dec 2013, 00:21:21

Nothing outrageous happens in 2014. BAU continues, global oil production eeks up another 500k or so bbl/day, and the economy limps along at its current low growth levels. No Black Swans at all ;)
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 31 Dec 2013, 01:45:10

SeaGypsy wrote:Deals will be made to allow Israel and the rest of the civilized world to sit back and let the Sunni- Shia conflict spiral out of control regionally across the MENA. There being no solution to the jihadi problem, no intervention possible with any probability of success- better to let these crazies have at each other in the hope both will exhaust themselves and eventually be forced to the negotiating table with their infidel enemies.
The State of the Jewish Race Religion People seems to have figured this out:
Yaalon: Jihadists May Have Fired Rockets against Israel to Lure Hizbullah into Conflict
Israel stated on Monday that jihadists seeking to spark a conflict between Hizbullah and Israel may have been behind Sunday's firing of rockets against the Jewish state from southern Lebanon.

Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon said that the rocket attack may have been aimed at luring Hizbullah into an a conflict as part of the jihadists' war against the party.

Moreover, he commented that the civil war in Syria has spread to Lebanon in that a Sunni-Shiite struggle has emerged in the country.

Some sides are attempting to drag Israel into this conflict, said Yaalon.

Of course, Jihadism was invented by the USraelis with the help of their Saudi/Quatiri royal pals to prevent the rise of modern secular nationalism in the Mideast. Those chickens are coming home to roost, maybe not in 2014.
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby careinke » Tue 31 Dec 2013, 04:25:26

Was there a topic like this for 2013? I can't seem to find one. Either way, we should make it a tradition. Fun reading.
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby MD » Tue 31 Dec 2013, 04:54:43

Reality will deliver its own outrageous outcomes this year, without any input from me.

We will continue to grind away slowly. Kunstler's "Long Emergency", Chapter 9. (somebody needs to steal that man's thesaurus)
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 31 Dec 2013, 06:40:37

OF2 will go over to the darkside.
Governments around the world abandon "green energy initiatives" and just go for energy conservation instead.
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 31 Dec 2013, 08:47:37

I'll play, by the end of the new year gasoline somewhere in the Midwest US will be $4.20/gal for at least a week.
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby KingM » Tue 31 Dec 2013, 09:02:07

Another Middle Eastern war/revolution, this one somewhere on the Arabian Peninsula. If it's Saudi, things will get really interesting.

If that doesn't happen, I think we'll be shocked that the economy continues to improve in spite of all forecasts to the contrary.
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby Quinny » Tue 31 Dec 2013, 09:25:35

Globally
There will be an overtly Peak Oil leader come to the world stage and start to preach powerdown.
People will voluntarily start to cut consumption and crash economies in Europe and US
We'll fall off the plateau and powercuts will become widespread across the west
The jet stream will change causing massive storms in the Sahara and peopel will start to consider greening the desert

Personally
We'll be capable of off grid living
We'll be self sufficient in Vegetables
My extensive plan for a permaculture based local Economic development strategy will be adopted by central and local government providing food security and employment in Brittany

:-D
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Re: Outrageous Forecasts for 2014

Unread postby penury » Tue 31 Dec 2013, 10:40:00

Some outrageous forecasts: The stock market will continue to be irrelevant to the 99 per cent. The mid term elections will result in a 90 per cent re-election of incumbents. The price of U.S. oil and gas will end the year within 2 per cent of where they begin the year. Another year of slow decay for the living standards of billions More people will vote in American Idol than mid-terms. DWTS will have more followers than Congress. The U.S. will continue to have bases in 139 countries and create even more in Africa. No one in the U.S. really gives a thought to the real problems. Fake outrage and crocodile tears will continue to be the public face of the worthless "elected representatives" of the Wall Street banks.
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